Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 2, 2026?
Short Answer
WTI crude oil prices will be above $75.49 per barrel on September 2, 2026, with the October 2026 contract indicated to settle at $89.22 following renewed U.S.-Iran military escalation and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's significant move on September 1 was a direct reaction to escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran. Reports of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz created immediate fears of a major oil supply disruption. This geopolitical shock caused the market probability to spike 57 percentage points, from 4.0% to 61.0%, as traders priced in a much higher likelihood of oil prices exceeding the contract's $75.49 threshold.
The continued upward trend on September 2, with the probability reaching 74.0%, is consistent with underlying commodity prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were reported trading at approximately $90.32 per barrel, following a close where the spot price was $91.48. Since these real-world prices are substantially above the market's resolution level, the high contract price reflects the direct impact of the conflict on oil markets.
- WTI crude likely above $75.49; U.S.-Iran military escalation elevates prices.
- October 2026 contract indicated at $89.22 per barrel due to Strait disruptions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $89.99 | 85.0% | 80.0% | The October 2026 WTI contract is indicated to settle at $89.22 per barrel, below this threshold. |
| Above $89.49 | 95.0% | 80.0% | The October 2026 WTI contract is indicated to settle at $89.22 per barrel, below this threshold. |
| Above $88.49 | 99.0% | 80.0% | The October 2026 WTI contract is indicated to settle at $89.22 per barrel, above this threshold. |
| Above $88.99 | 96.0% | 80.0% | The October 2026 WTI contract is indicated to settle at $89.22 per barrel, above this threshold. |
| Above $87.99 | 99.0% | 90.0% | The October 2026 WTI contract is indicated to settle at $89.22 per barrel, above this threshold. |
Current Context
WTI crude prices moved higher on supply disruption fears. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures traded at approximately $90.32 per barrel at 10:48 a.m. ET on September 2, 2026, following a volatile session [^]. On the previous day, September 1, 2026, WTI settled between $90.22 and $90.69 per barrel, reaching its highest closing level since July 23 [^][^]. The WTI crude oil spot price was $91.48 per barrel at market close on September 1, 2026 [^]. This price increase is primarily driven by renewed military escalations between the United States and Iran, which have raised concerns regarding supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^]. Contributing further to the upward movement, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 4.5 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending August 28, exceeding analysts' expectations [^][^].
Geopolitical tensions and inventory draws impacted broader market sentiment. The surge in oil prices has contributed to market expectations of a potential 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September 2026, with current odds estimated near 67% [^][^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global crude oil prices will remain elevated through the third quarter of 2026 [^][^][^]. Specifically, the EIA projects Brent crude spot prices to average around $85 per barrel in 3Q26, attributing this outlook to ongoing disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 September 02, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 83.0% to 96.0%
Outcome: Above $88.99
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was traditional news and announcements regarding escalating geopolitical tensions. On September 2, 2026, WTI crude oil prices surged following renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran, including Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases and concerns about shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^][^]. These developments caused WTI crude oil to trade above $90 per barrel, consistently surpassing the "Above $88.99" threshold [^][^][^][^]. There is no evidence from the provided information to suggest social media activity played a role in this price movement; therefore, social media was irrelevant.
📈 September 01, 2026: 72.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 82.0%
Outcome: Above $88.99
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran, which included U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory attacks near the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^]. This geopolitical development, reported by major news outlets, occurred on September 1, 2026, and significantly raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to WTI crude oil prices surging over 5% that day [^][^][^][^]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as contributing to this specific price movement in the provided information. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Above $89.99" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the WTI Oil Price is greater than $89.99. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if the WTI Oil Price is $89.99 or below. The market relates to the WTI Oil Price on a specific day, with the graph dates ending on September 2nd, though a "Max payout Sep 2, 2026" is also noted. No specific settlement source or time is provided in the available content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $75.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $75.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $76.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $76.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $77.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $77.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $78.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $78.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $79.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $79.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $80.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $80.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $81.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $82.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $82.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $83.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $83.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $86.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $86.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $87.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $87.99 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above $88.49 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above $81.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $84.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $84.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $85.49 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $85.99 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $88.99 | $0.97 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Above $89.49 | $0.95 | $0.06 | 95% |
| Above $89.99 | $0.85 | $0.16 | 85% |
Market Discussion
Traders in this market are evaluating the likelihood of WTI oil prices exceeding various thresholds—$88.99, $89.49, and $89.99—by September 2, 2026. A strong consensus exists, with a high probability (96%) that prices will be above $88.99, 95% for above $89.49, and 85% for above $89.99. All "YES" probabilities for these elevated price points have recently increased, indicating a growing market expectation of higher WTI oil prices on the expiration date.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above $89.99PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality89Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality89Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $75.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality69Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality69Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $76.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $76.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (35h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $77.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (35h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $77.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (36h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $78.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $78.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $79.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $79.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $80.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $80.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $81.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality67Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality67Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $81.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $82.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $82.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $83.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $83.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $84.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality70Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality70Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $84.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality70Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality70Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $85.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $85.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality45Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality45Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 37
Above $86.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality81Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality81Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $86.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $87.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality87Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality87Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $87.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality87Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality87Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $88.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality89Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality89Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $88.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality89Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality89Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $89.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality89Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality89Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 2, 2026
6. What specific developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict could either de-escalate tensions or further disrupt supply through the Strait of Hormuz before September 2026?
| Conflict Escalation Date | September 2, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz Commercial Traffic | Significantly below pre-war levels [^][^][^][^] |
| U.S. Actions | Naval blockade and "crushing economic operation" [^][^][^][^] |
The U.S.-Iran conflict has intensified, significantly impacting Strait of Hormuz traffic. As of September 2, 2026, the U.S. has conducted airstrikes on Iranian military sites near the Strait of Hormuz, in response to mining attempts [^][^][^]. In retaliation, Iran has launched missile strikes targeting U.S. interests within the region [^][^][^]. This escalation has already led to commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining substantially below pre-war levels [^][^][^][^]. Available research does not provide information on developments that could de-escalate these tensions before September 2026.
Future disruptions to Strait of Hormuz supply routes are expected. Iran is anticipated to continue employing drones and missiles to interfere with maritime transit [^][^][^][^]. The ongoing cycle of violence, characterized by U.S. airstrikes and Iranian missile strikes, directly impedes the free flow of oil [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, the U.S. maintains a naval blockade and has announced a "crushing economic operation" targeting Iran, further contributing to a disruptive environment for supply through the strait [^][^][^][^].
7. How do the EIA's official forecasts and weekly inventory reports for August 2026 support or contradict the current WTI price levels around $90 per barrel?
| WTI Crude Oil Price (Sept 2, 2026) | $89.22 to $90.74 per barrel [^][^] |
|---|---|
| EIA Projected Brent Price (2026) | $87 per barrel [^][^][^] |
| Crude Oil Stock Draw (Aug 28, 2026) | 4.45 million barrels [^][^] |
The EIA's August 2026 forecasts and reports support WTI prices around $90 per barrel. The United States Energy Information Administration's (EIA) August 2026 forecasts and weekly inventory reports generally indicate a tighter crude oil market balance, aligning with current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price levels, which ranged from approximately $89.22 to $90.74 per barrel as of September 2, 2026 [^][^]. This market tightness is primarily driven by prevailing geopolitical factors and lower-than-expected inventory levels.
Geopolitical factors influenced the EIA's Brent crude price projection. The EIA's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projected an average annual Brent crude oil price of $87 per barrel for 2026 [^][^][^]. This projection incorporates expectations of ongoing supply constraints, largely attributed to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly those impacting oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^].
Significant crude oil inventory draws indicate a tighter market balance. Further supporting upward price pressure, EIA weekly inventory reports for the week ending August 28, 2026, revealed a substantial crude oil stock draw of 4.45 million barrels [^][^][^]. This draw significantly surpassed analyst expectations of a 1.1 million barrel draw and contributes to the tighter market balance consistent with WTI prices around $90 per barrel [^][^][^].
8. How has the price spread between WTI and Brent crude responded to the Strait of Hormuz supply concerns, and what does this imply for the global oil market balance?
| Brent-WTI Spread (March 2026) | $12/bbl [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price (Sep 2, 2026) | $96.11/bbl [^][^][^] |
| Global Inventory Draws (Feb-Jul 2026) | 2.7 million barrels per day [^][^][^][^] |
Strait of Hormuz disruptions significantly widened the Brent-WTI crude oil price spread. The Brent-WTI price spread averaged approximately $12 per barrel in March 2026, primarily driven by shipping disruptions originating from the Strait of Hormuz [^][^]. As of September 2, 2026, Brent crude was priced at $96.11 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded near $88.74 per barrel [^][^][^].
The Strait of Hormuz closure caused a significant global oil supply deficit. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, coupled with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, has led to a considerable global oil supply deficit and increased risk premiums [^][^][^][^]. Global inventory draws were estimated at an average of 2.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) between late February and July 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) further forecast a 1.8 mb/d deficit for the third quarter of 2026, indicating a substantial imbalance within the global oil market [^][^][^][^].
Regional factors further influenced the Brent-WTI spread, limiting WTI's rise. Beyond these global events, regional supply-demand imbalances, logistical constraints, and high US inventory levels have also played a role in shaping the Brent-WTI price spread [^][^]. These specific factors have constrained WTI's price gains relative to the international Brent benchmark, thereby underscoring the influence of localized market dynamics on the broader global oil pricing structure [^][^].
9. What alternative data sources, such as maritime tracking, reveal about the actual flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in late August and early September 2026?
| Strait of Hormuz disruption period | Late August - early September 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Transits on September 1, 2026 | 3 outbound (no tankers), 1 inbound (24-hour period) [^][^] |
| WTI Crude Oil price | $90.74 per barrel (as of September 2, 2026) [^] |
The Strait of Hormuz experienced severe oil tanker traffic disruption. Maritime tracking data from late August to early September 2026 revealed that both inbound and outbound oil tanker activity in the Strait of Hormuz was effectively paralyzed or near-zero [^][^][^]. This critical situation was linked to heightened geopolitical risks, including reported projectile strikes on tankers near Khasab and extensive GPS jamming across the Gulf region [^][^][^].
Specific transit data highlighted the severity of the disruption. On September 1, 2026, only three outbound transits were recorded in a 24-hour period through the Strait of Hormuz, none of which were tankers, along with a single inbound transit [^][^]. This level of activity marked a significant deviation from normal commercial maritime operations in the area [^][^].
Oil prices reflected the significant maritime disruptions. Amid these considerable disruptions, the market price for WTI Crude Oil reached $90.74 per barrel as of September 2, 2026 [^].
10. How do investment bank forecasts, such as those from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, project WTI prices for Q3 2026, and what are their underlying assumptions?
| Q4 2026 Brent Crude Forecast | Approximately $80 per barrel (Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, as of Sept 2, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Actual WTI Crude Price | Near $89–92 per barrel (as of Sept 2, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| October 2026 WTI Futures | Settled at $89.22 (as of Sept 2, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Major investment banks recently lowered Q4 2026 Brent crude forecasts. As of September 2, 2026, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley notably revised their Q4 2026 Brent crude oil forecasts downward to approximately $80 per barrel [^][^][^][^]. This forecast represents a significant reduction from their previous higher projections. These downward adjustments were primarily driven by an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and an evolving expectation of a supply surplus in the market [^][^].
WTI prices traded significantly higher than Brent forecasts on September 2. Concurrently, on September 2, 2026, the actual WTI crude oil price was observed trading near $89–92 per barrel [^][^][^][^]. The October 2026 futures contract for WTI settled at $89.22 on this same day [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets for WTI reflected considerable volatility and speculative interest, with binary contracts trading around strike prices of $85.49 and $89.85 [^][^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
WTI crude oil prices traded in a volatile range, generally mid-$90.32 to $91.70 per barrel as of September 2, 2026, following a surge fueled by renewed military conflict between the U.S. and Iran [^][^][^][^]. The primary bullish catalyst is heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, specifically renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes and the persistent, indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil and LNG transport [^][^][^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent crude spot prices to average $85/b in the third quarter of 2026 due to global inventory drawdowns caused by constrained oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz [^][^].
Conversely, bearish factors include high U.S. domestic natural gas production, potential inventory builds, and the possibility of a market correction if tensions ease or diplomatic solutions are reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^]. Market analysis as of late August 2026 highlights demand contraction and record-high U.S. crude production forecasts of 13.8 million barrels per day for 2026 as additional bearish influences [^].
Market volatility is expected to remain high in the short term, with official U.S. EIA inventory data influencing price sentiment alongside geopolitical developments [^][^]. As of the EIA data for the close of September 1, 2026, the WTI crude oil wholesale spot price was $91.48 per barrel, marking a 5.1% increase [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 02, 2026
- Expiration: September 09, 2026
- Closes: September 02, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: WTI crude oil prices traded in a volatile range, generally mid-$90.32 to $91.70 per barrel as of September 2, 2026, following a surge fueled by renewed military conflict between the U.S.
- Trigger: And Iran [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The primary bullish catalyst is heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, specifically renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes and the persistent, indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil and LNG transport [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The U.S.
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 18 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWTI-26SEP0114-T90.99: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXWTI-26SEP0114-T90.49: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXWTI-26SEP0114-T89.99: YES (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXWTI-26SEP0114-T89.49: YES (Sep 01, 2026)
- KXWTI-26SEP0114-T88.99: YES (Sep 01, 2026)
