Nickel close price on Apr 17, 2026?

Indonesia has postponed the implementation of export duties on intermediate nickel products, such as Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and ferronickel, until at least 2025 ^[1]. While an outright ban on raw nickel ore exports remains in effect ^[4], there is no indication of an outright ban on intermediate products like NPI or ferronickel for the 2025-2026 period. The government instead introduced a royalty policy, effective from April 26, regulating royalties on various nickel products including nickel matte, MHP, NPI, and ferronickel ^[2]. This policy applies lower royalty rates to higher-value products, aiming to promote domestic deep processing of nickel resources ^[2]. Furthermore, Indonesia is strategically limiting new nickel permits to add value to its production ^[5].

Indonesia anticipates significant growth in refined nickel output from HPAL plants. Indonesia is projected to experience substantial growth from its High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) plants, with capacity additions from several new HPAL projects expected to come online or reach full production by 2026 ^[3]. Consequently, Indonesia's HPAL plants are projected to produce approximately 600,000 tonnes of refined nickel by 2026 ^[3]. This significant increase in HPAL production is expected to further solidify Indonesia's dominant position in the global nickel market ^[6].

Projections for nickel-free LFP batteries in 2025 electric vehicles show differing estimates from leading research firms. By the end of 2025, the projected global market share of nickel-free LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries in newly manufactured electric vehicles varies between 45% and 60%, depending on the source and metric. Both analyses underscore the significant presence of nickel-free LFP batteries in the electric vehicle market through 2025 ^[2].

Wood Mackenzie forecasts LFP batteries will comprise 45% of passenger EV battery capacity by 2025. This estimate comes from their "Global lithium-ion battery supply and demand update Q4 2024 Report," published in November 2024. This projection indicates an increase from an estimated 40% in 2024 to 45% in the subsequent year ^[1].

BloombergNEF projects LFP batteries to capture 60% of passenger EV sales in 2025. Their Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024, released in June 2024, provided this higher estimate. This report highlighted LFP's continued market dominance, projecting its share to grow to approximately 60% in 2025 before potentially decreasing as higher nickel chemistries might regain market share ^[2].

The nickel market is projected to continue experiencing an oversupply through 2026. The Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) anticipates this persistent oversupply will exert downward pressure on prices. While specific numerical forecasts for combined London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) visible nickel inventory levels by Q1 2026 are not explicitly provided, the overall market outlook suggests these inventories will likely remain elevated or accumulate further due to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand ^[1].

Consequently, visible inventory levels are not expected to significantly decrease by Q1 2026. Instead, they are projected to remain high or even increase across LME and SHFE warehouses. This sustained high inventory level is a direct consequence of demand failing to keep pace with the available supply in the market ^[1].

Therefore, the stock-to-use ratio in Q1 2026 is expected to be high. A market characterized by oversupply inherently leads to increased stock levels relative to consumption, maintaining an elevated stock-to-use ratio compared to historical averages. However, the available research does not detail the precise numerical value of this ratio for Q1 2026 or a specific historical 10-year average ^[1].

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will raise Class 1 nickel costs, shifting EU import dynamics. Fully effective on January 1, 2026, CBAM aims to apply a carbon price to imported goods, preventing carbon leakage and ensuring the EU's climate goals are met ^[1]. While directly targeting carbon-intensive goods like iron and steel, the mechanism will significantly influence the landed cost and import volumes of Class 1 nickel, especially if it originates from high-carbon producers ^[1]. Importers are mandated to purchase CBAM certificates corresponding to the embedded carbon emissions, thereby adding a carbon cost to imports, which will translate to higher costs for nickel-containing products, such as stainless steel, if the nickel inputs have high emissions ^[1].

High-carbon producers like Norilsk and Indonesia will face higher costs and potential shifts in import volumes. For major carbon-intensive Class 1 nickel producers, such as Russia's Norilsk Nickel and facilities in Indonesia, CBAM is expected to lead to increased landed costs and potential shifts in import volumes. Norilsk Nickel Group reported its total Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions at 9.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023, indicating a substantial carbon footprint for their nickel products ^[2]. Similarly, Indonesian nickel production, particularly nickel pig iron and ferro-nickel, often has a higher carbon footprint due to its reliance on coal-fired power plants ^[3]. This means Class 1 nickel produced through similar energy-intensive methods in these regions would face a carbon cost disadvantage when imported into the EU.

EU demand will favor lower-carbon nickel, impacting market access for high-emission producers. The market implications point towards a growing preference for lower-carbon nickel sources within the EU. CBAM is projected to increase the cost of high-carbon stainless steel imports, motivating EU buyers to choose producers with lower carbon footprints ^[3]. This provides a competitive edge to producers with cleaner operations. As EU capital and demand increasingly favor "green" metals, transparency regarding carbon footprint will become critical for market access ^[4]. Consequently, Class 1 nickel from producers unable to demonstrate low carbon intensity could experience reduced demand from EU buyers looking to minimize their CBAM liabilities, thereby affecting import volumes from regions like Russia and Indonesia.

Major new Class 1 nickel projects will not be online before 2026. Two significant Class 1 nickel projects, Kabanga Nickel and Crawford Nickel, are not expected to commence production prior to this timeframe. Lifezone Metals is targeting a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its Kabanga Nickel project in Tanzania toward 2026, with production anticipated to follow this key decision ^[1]. Similarly, Canada Nickel's Crawford Nickel Project in Ontario, Canada, aims for a construction decision by year-end 2026, indicating that production would begin after this date ^[2]. Both projects are currently in development, with critical investment or construction decisions scheduled for 2026.

Vale's Voisey's Bay expansion is already fully operational. In contrast to new projects, Vale's Voisey's Bay operation in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, has already completed its expansion and reached full production capacity. The transition to underground mining was successfully finalized, with the expansion achieving full production by late 2021, which extended the mine's operational life to 2035 ^[4]. Consequently, this project does not qualify as a new Class 1 nickel project expected to come online before 2026, given that its expanded production capacity was established several years prior ^[3].