Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 1, 2026?
Short Answer
WTI crude oil is likely to settle above $76.99 on September 1, 2026, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including recent U.S. military actions, which pushed prices to $85.78 on August 31, 2026.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's sharpest move, a 31 percentage point spike to 70.0% on August 31, was driven by reports of fresh US military strikes on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions and the subsequent retaliation amplified fears of a wider supply disruption. The move was accompanied by 500 contracts traded, suggesting conviction. This escalation built upon existing market stress, with the Strait of Hormuz already closed and WTI spot prices holding near $85 per barrel.
A prior 21 percentage point increase occurred on August 30. No specific news event corresponds with this move in the available information. The general context was one of heightened tension, with both the IEA and EIA having reported significant global supply chain disruptions. Analyst commentary from the period noted that a prolonged conflict could drive Brent prices to a $114-$120 per barrel range, framing the upside risk for traders.
- WTI price likely settles above $76.49 due to heightened geopolitical tensions.
- Geopolitical risk premiums and supply disruptions support WTI near $85 per barrel.
- Upward momentum from recent military actions contributes to higher WTI prices.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $85.49 | 63.0% | 69.7% | Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are driving WTI crude oil prices upward. |
| Above $84.49 | 79.0% | 81.3% | WTI crude oil prices have been driven higher due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. |
| Above $84.99 | 73.0% | 75.7% | Recent U.S. military actions contribute to the upward bias in WTI crude oil prices. |
| Above $86.49 | 46.0% | 53.3% | Continued geopolitical risk premiums are expected to provide strong support for WTI prices. |
| Above $86.99 | 38.0% | 45.1% | Upward momentum from supply disruptions and tensions likely prompts a re-evaluation of WTI prices. |
Current Context
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $85, driven by Mideast tensions.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded at $85.30 per barrel on August 31, 2026, consistent with levels near $85 per barrel observed on August 25, 2026 [^]. These prices reflect heightening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply disruptions from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz [^]. The IEA and EIA reported significant global oil supply chain disruptions due to the Strait's closure [^]. Analysts suggest prolonged conflict could drive Brent prices to $114-$120 per barrel in worst-case scenarios [^].
Supply increases modest amid sustained elevated price outlook. Seven OPEC+ nations committed to a 188,000 barrel-per-day production increase for September 2026, with a market review scheduled for September 6 [^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook that global oil prices would remain elevated throughout 3Q26 [^]. This forecast attributes sustained prices to inventory drawdowns caused by the Strait of Hormuz situation [^], estimating an average Brent crude price of around $85 per barrel for the quarter [^].
Technical rating rose, prediction markets favor an $80 dip. Technical analysis for WTI crude oil on September 1, 2026, indicated a rating of $59.31 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of 2.68% [^]. Support and resistance levels were identified at $56.18 and $60.85, respectively [^]. Prediction markets in late August 2026 assigned a 72% probability for WTI oil prices to dip to $80 per barrel at some point during September 2026 [^]. The probability of prices reaching $90 per barrel was assessed at approximately 45% [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $82.99
📈 August 31, 2026: 39.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.0% to 94.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's spike was a significant geopolitical development: reports of fresh US military strikes on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent retaliatory actions [^][^]. These events, occurring on August 31, 2026, reignited fears of oil supply disruptions, causing WTI crude oil prices to rise to approximately $86.16-$86.24 per barrel, well above the $82.99 threshold [^][^][^][^]. This traditional news directly impacted the underlying asset's price, leading to the substantial increase in the "Above $82.99" outcome's probability on the prediction market [^][^]. Based on the provided information, social media was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant.
Outcome: Above $84.99
📈 August 30, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 52.0%
What happened: Based on the provided web research, there is no information available regarding specific social media activity, key figures' posts, or viral narratives that caused the prediction market price movement [1-7]. However, market commentary from late August 2026 notes WTI had been trading near $85 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints related to the Strait of Hormuz [^]. On August 30, 2026, the WTI price was $84.74 per barrel [^], just below the "$84.99" threshold, suggesting the 37.0 percentage point spike likely reflected an anticipation of the price crossing this level, driven by the underlying bullish market factors. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this observed market movement based on the provided data.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each specific contract, a YES resolution is triggered if the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price on September 1st is above the specified dollar threshold. A NO resolution occurs if the WTI oil price on September 1st is at or below that same threshold. Trading for these markets begins on September 1, 12:00am EDT; the page does not specify the exact time or source for the WTI price determination.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $76.99 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $77.49 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $77.99 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $78.49 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $78.99 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $79.49 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $79.99 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $80.49 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above $81.49 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Above $76.49 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 96% |
| Above $81.99 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 94% |
| Above $82.99 | $0.95 | $0.06 | 94% |
| Above $82.49 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 92% |
| Above $83.49 | $0.93 | $0.10 | 91% |
| Above $83.99 | $0.89 | $0.13 | 91% |
| Above $84.49 | $0.84 | $0.20 | 79% |
| Above $84.99 | $0.76 | $0.27 | 73% |
| Above $85.49 | $0.67 | $0.34 | 63% |
| Above $85.99 | $0.58 | $0.45 | 63% |
| Above $86.49 | $0.49 | $0.55 | 46% |
| Above $86.99 | $0.37 | $0.65 | 38% |
| Above $87.49 | $0.30 | $0.73 | 31% |
| Above $88.49 | $0.18 | $0.86 | 17% |
| Above $87.99 | $0.24 | $0.80 | 12% |
| Above $88.99 | $0.12 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Above $89.99 | $0.06 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Above $89.49 | $0.09 | $0.94 | 5% |
| Above $90.49 | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Above $90.99 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above $80.99 | $0.99 | $0.03 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of late August 2026, WTI crude oil prices are trading near $85 per barrel, driven by renewed military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz and low global inventories [^][^][^][^][^]. While institutional forecasts vary, Goldman Sachs maintains an $83/b target for Q4 2026, contrasting with the EIA's projection of $74/b for the same period [^][^]. Prediction market participants show uncertainty regarding sustained geopolitical premiums, with a 72% probability assigned to WTI prices dipping to $80 or below during September 2026 [^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above $85.49PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $81.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $81.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $82.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $82.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $83.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality69Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality69Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $83.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality76Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality76Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $84.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality65Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality65Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $84.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $85.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality78Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality78Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $86.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 91
Above $86.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality79Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality79Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $87.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality43Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality43Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 30
Above $87.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $88.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $88.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $89.49Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.19
Above $89.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality69Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality69Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 85
Above $90.99Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Aug 31, 2026
6. What geopolitical developments involving the Strait of Hormuz could significantly shift WTI crude prices before September 1, 2026?
| WTI Crude Price Increase | 2.83% (August 31, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| WTI Crude Price | $85.78 a barrel (August 31, 2026) [^] |
| Prediction Market Volatility Range | $80-$90 range (August 2026) [^] |
Recent military action significantly disrupted oil flow in Hormuz. WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.83% to $85.78 a barrel on Monday, August 31, 2026, following U.S. military strikes on Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, August 30, 2026 [^]. This military activity critically shifted the situation, preventing the free flow of oil through the strait and departing from the previous status quo [^].
Geopolitical tension remains a key determinant for oil prices. Military flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz are a primary driver for oil prices, effectively stalling diplomatic efforts for a temporary shipping corridor and increasing the geopolitical risk premium [^]. While ongoing talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict are not publicly known [^], oil prices continue to be highly dependent on events in the straits and with Iran [^]. Prediction markets for August 2026 had anticipated volatility centered around the $80-$90 range, but these forecasts are being re-evaluated due to the recent military developments [^].
7. What evidence from derivatives markets and weekly inventory reports supports the prediction market consensus of a potential dip toward $80 per barrel in September 2026?
| WTI Price Target | $80 per barrel (September 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Probability of Target Price | 72% to 93% [^][^][^][^] |
| Reported Oil Inventory Build | 17.4M barrels [^][^] |
Prediction markets strongly suggest WTI crude oil may dip toward $80. The consensus from major prediction platforms indicates a high probability, ranging from 72% to 93%, that WTI crude oil prices will reach or dip to $80 per barrel by September 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This outlook is primarily supported by expectations of an emerging oil oversupply starting in late summer and identified risks within derivatives markets [^][^].
Fundamental analysis indicates potential price correction due to projected oversupply. This analysis points to an increasing oil oversupply commencing in late summer, which could drive a price correction [^][^]. Specific indicators include significant inventory builds, such as a reported 17.4 million barrel increase, and smaller-than-anticipated draws in OECD inventories [^][^].
Derivatives analysis reveals a delicate market equilibrium despite rallies. An examination of derivatives and institutional positioning suggests the market is in a delicate balance [^][^]. Despite recent price rallies, analysts have highlighted underlying risks that market sentiment often underestimates, including potential Iran peace signals and fundamental overvaluation [^][^].
8. How has the price spread between WTI and Brent crude evolved throughout August 2026, and what does it indicate about U.S. versus global market pressures?
| WTI-Brent Spread (August 18, 2026) | -$8.81 per barrel [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| WTI Price (August 31, 2026) | $85.28 [^] |
| Probability WTI Below $80 (Sept 2026) | 72%-78% [^][^][^][^] |
The WTI-Brent price spread widened significantly in August 2026. Throughout the month, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at an increasing discount to Brent crude. By August 18, 2026, this price spread reached approximately -$8.81 per barrel [^][^][^]. By the end of the month, on August 31, WTI was trading near $85.28, while Brent was near $89.94 [^].
Global geopolitical factors primarily drove the widening price spread. This increasing gap indicates heightened global market pressures, specifically geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions stemming from the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and escalating instability in the Strait of Hormuz. These events disproportionately impacted international (Brent) benchmarks compared to the relatively landlocked U.S. (WTI) market [^][^][^].
September 2026 WTI price predictions reflect high market uncertainty. Prediction markets for September 2026 WTI prices show divided sentiment. There is a 72%–78% probability assigned to WTI hitting below $80 at some point, while other markets indicate a significant (50%+) probability of it hitting $90, reflecting high volatility and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict [^][^][^][^].
9. What specific supply and demand data supports the EIA and IEA's projections for an average oil price near $85 per barrel in Q3 2026?
| Projected Oil Price Q3 2026 | ~$85 per barrel (EIA, IEA) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Global Inventory Drawdown Q2 2026 | 4.2 million barrels per day (EIA) [^][^][^] |
| Global Oil Balance Deficit Q3 2026 | 1.8 million barrels per day (IEA) [^] |
Inventory drawdowns and supply disruptions support higher oil prices. The EIA and IEA project an average oil price near $85 per barrel in Q3 2026. This forecast is supported by significant inventory drawdowns, with global oil inventories decreasing by 4.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in Q2 2026 and a further 3.8 mb/d projected for Q3 2026 [^][^][^]. These reductions are primarily due to severe transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, the IEA reports a global oil balance deficit of 1.8 mb/d for Q3 2026 [^].
Demand decline is moderated by market expectations of rising prices. While global oil consumption is expected to decline by 1.6 mb/d for 2026, driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated fuel prices [^], prediction markets suggest upward price pressure. Prediction markets for WTI crude oil prices in August and September 2026 show high volatility but a general consensus indicating prices are likely to reach or surpass the $85 mark. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket reflect implied probabilities that align with this anticipated price increase [^][^][^][^].
10. How do Q3 2026 oil price forecasts from government agencies like the EIA compare to signals from technical analysis?
| EIA Q3 2026 Brent Forecast | $85/b [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| WTI Technical Support (late Aug 2026) | $75-$80 per barrel [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Prediction Market Monitoring Level | Above $85.50 [^][^][^][^] |
Government forecasts project higher oil prices for Q3 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an average Brent crude oil spot price of $85 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026 [^][^][^]. This outlook is primarily driven by anticipated global inventory drawdowns, which are expected to result from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^].
Technical analysis suggests a prevailing bearish trend for WTI crude. As of late August 2026, assessments of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude largely indicate a bearish trajectory, with crucial support levels identified between $75 and $80 per barrel [^][^][^][^][^]. Bearish indicators include breaks below short-term moving averages, negative MACD readings, and RSI signals, collectively suggesting further potential for price declines if the $80 support level is breached [^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, some analyses leveraging Elliott Wave theory propose a possible rebound if prices manage to maintain above the $80 mark [^].
Prediction markets show significant uncertainty, echoing geopolitical concerns. Oil price prediction markets, observed around September 1, 2026, reflect considerable uncertainty, strongly influenced by the same geopolitical risk premium stemming from Strait of Hormuz disruptions that underpins the EIA's forecast [^][^][^][^]. These markets are actively assessing probabilities for various price floors and ceilings, with specific contracts tracking whether prices can hold above $85.50 [^][^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
WTI crude oil prices traded near $85.28 - $87.50 per barrel as of August 31, 2026, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz [^][^]. These U.S.-Iran tensions and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipments contributed to WTI prices sitting near $85 per barrel in late August 2026, a significant increase from the previous year [^]. Bullish catalysts for WTI entering September 2026 include ongoing geopolitical risk premiums due to the Iran-U.S. conflict and potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected Brent crude oil prices to average approximately $85 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026 [^][^].
Conversely, bearish catalysts include the final OPEC+ production hike in September 2026, softening global demand growth, and receding geopolitical risk premiums during periods of relative calm [^] [^] [^] . The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices to average $85/barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before gradually declining toward $69/barrel in 2027 as inventories rebuild [^][^]. Prediction markets for August 2026 WTI price targets showed significant uncertainty, with some contracts reaching a near-consensus (100% implied probability) on hitting specific thresholds, while others split around the $85/barrel mark [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 01, 2026
- Expiration: September 08, 2026
- Closes: September 01, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: WTI crude oil prices traded near $85.28 - $87.50 per barrel as of August 31, 2026, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S.
- Trigger: And Iran in the Strait of Hormuz [^] [^] .
- Trigger: These U.S.-Iran tensions and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipments contributed to WTI prices sitting near $85 per barrel in late August 2026, a significant increase from the previous year [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts for WTI entering September 2026 include ongoing geopolitical risk premiums due to the Iran-U.S.
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWTI-26AUG2814-T88.99: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
- KXWTI-26AUG2814-T88.49: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
- KXWTI-26AUG2814-T87.99: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
- KXWTI-26AUG2814-T87.49: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
- KXWTI-26AUG2814-T86.99: NO (Aug 28, 2026)
