How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect WTI oil to get to 84.99 or below by the end of 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has displayed a general downward trend, starting at an 85.0% probability and currently trading at 76.0%. The market has been highly volatile, with a price range between 55.0% and 93.0%. Significant price action occurred in late April and early May. The probability dropped sharply from a high of 93.0% on April 25 to 58.0% by April 28, a period that coincided with reports of Goldman Sachs raising its Q4 2026 forecast for WTI crude. A major reversal occurred on May 05, when the price spiked 17.0 percentage points. This sharp increase in the probability of a low oil price was reportedly driven by breaking news that the U.S. confirmed an Iran ceasefire remained in place, which eased geopolitical supply fears and caused oil prices to fall.
The total trading volume of 21,135 contracts indicates significant market participation and interest. The price chart suggests potential resistance near the 93.0% level reached on April 25 and a possible support level around the 55.0% to 58.0% range seen in late April. The market sentiment, currently at 76.0%, still strongly favors the outcome that oil will reach a low price by the end of the year. However, the sharp, news-driven price swings demonstrate that this sentiment is fragile and highly reactive to both institutional financial forecasts and, more acutely, geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The market's strong reaction to the ceasefire news suggests traders see geopolitical de-escalation as a primary catalyst for lower oil prices.
- Anticipated global supply surpluses likely drive WTI prices downward by 2026.
- Potential geopolitical de-escalation may push WTI prices below $70.
- OPEC+ actions, especially unwinding, are central to WTI price movements.
- Non-OPEC+ countries are forecast to significantly increase global oil supply.
- The EIA STEO implies WTI may remain around high-$40s to low-$50s.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79.99 or below | 76.0% | 97.0% | Bearish outlook and new evidence for price declines are present. |
| 69.99 or below | 50.0% | 97.0% | Multiple forecasts project WTI falling below $70 due to de-escalation scenarios. |
| 74.99 or below | 60.0% | 97.0% | WTI prices likely fall into the $50-$70 range by year-end 2026 from supply surpluses. |
| 59.99 or below | 22.0% | 97.0% | EIA STEO and Dallas Fed surveys point to WTI reaching low-$50s due to supply surpluses. |
| 54.99 or below | 15.0% | 97.0% | EIA STEO and Dallas Fed surveys indicate WTI potentially reaching the low-$50s by year-end 2026. |
Current Context
Oil (WTI) price forecasts for Q4 2026 show significant institutional variation. Goldman Sachs' projections for Q4 2026 WTI have fluctuated in recent months: in March 2026, they raised their forecast to $67/bbl, assuming a longer Strait of Hormuz disruption [1]. By April 2026, their base case was $75/bbl [2], though they also maintained a 2026 average forecast of $78/bbl, citing balanced risks from softer demand and easing supply disruptions [3]. Most recently, on April 26, 2026, Goldman Sachs elevated its Q4 2026 forecast to $83/bbl due to declining Middle East crude oil production [4]. BMO Economics lifted its 2026 annual average WTI forecast to $85/bbl, with potential for prices to dip below $85 in Q4 [5]. A Reuters poll mentioned in the same report projected an average of $77 by the end of March [5], while the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in March indicated a majority expected WTI to end 2026 between $70-$80, averaging $74 [5]. Traders Union projects WTI to fluctuate between $87.94 and $93.38 by December 2026, with an average near $90.66 [6]. The lowest predictions fall into the low- to mid-$50s per barrel by the end of 2026, particularly if a global oil surplus materializes and geopolitical tensions ease [7][8]. Conversely, disruptions could push Brent crude towards $115-$120 per barrel in Q4 2026 [2][9].
Several key factors influence the potential direction of WTI crude prices. A growing global oil surplus, where production exceeds demand, is a primary driver for lower prices [7], supported by forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency, and BloombergNEF [7]. Increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption and efficiency improvements are also contributing to a slight cooling in long-term oil demand growth [10]. However, a decline in Middle East crude oil production can lead to price increases [4]. Releases from global Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) can help mitigate supply shocks [1]. Economic conditions also play a role; lower fossil fuel prices can ease global inflation and boost economic growth [10], but higher oil prices can increase inflation, impacting central bank interest rate decisions [11]. Monitoring events like CME WTI futures expiry dates, EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly and Short-Term Energy Outlook releases, and Federal Reserve announcements on interest rates will be crucial for tracking the market in 2026 [12][11].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 69.99 or below
📈 May 06, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 43.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for WTI oil reaching "$69.99 or below" by year-end was traditional news reports on May 06, 2026. Reports of a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and raising hopes for a reopened Strait of Hormuz, caused WTI crude oil prices to fall by 8-10% that day [1][2][3]. This significant decline in current WTI prices increased the perceived probability of the commodity dropping to $69.99 or below by the end of the year. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant factor in this movement.
Outcome: 64.99 or below
📈 May 05, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 14.0% to 44.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 30.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on May 05, 2026, was breaking news concerning a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Oil prices fell significantly after the U.S. confirmed an Iran ceasefire remained in place, easing fears of a wider Middle East war [4]. This reduction in geopolitical risk premium likely increased the perceived probability of WTI crude falling to $64.99 or below by year-end, despite professional forecasts generally predicting higher average prices for 2026 [5][6][7]. The provided research does not contain any information regarding social media activity influencing this specific market movement, thus it cannot be assessed as a driver or accelerant.
📉 May 03, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 42.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10 percentage point drop in the "64.99 or below" outcome on May 3, 2026, was likely a strengthening bullish sentiment for oil prices, indicating expectations for WTI to remain above that threshold. This sentiment was supported by reports on May 1, 2026, noting that "Kalshi traders think U.S. oil prices are set to hit new 2026 highs" [8], which would decrease the perceived likelihood of WTI falling to $64.99 or below. No specific social media activity was identified in the provided information that correlated with this movement; therefore, social media was irrelevant to this particular price movement.
Outcome: 74.99 or below
📈 May 04, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 59.0%
What happened: On May 04, 2026, the primary driver impacting WTI prices was traditional news reporting escalating geopolitical tensions, specifically Iranian attacks and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, causing WTI to spike from ~$98 to over $114 [9][10][11]. Such a rise in current oil prices would logically decrease the perceived probability of WTI falling to "$74.99 or below" by year-end, which would typically cause a decline, not a spike, in the prediction market outcome's price [9]. The provided web research does not contain any social media activity that would explain a 13.0 percentage point spike in the "74.99 or below" outcome. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and the identified market drivers from traditional news sources would contradict the stated prediction market movement.
📉 May 02, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 43.0%
What happened: No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified in the provided research that would explain the price movement. While traditional news and forecasts from early 2026 generally anticipated lower oil prices due to easing geopolitical tensions and an expected supply surplus [12][13][14], this would typically increase the probability of WTI falling to $74.99 or below. The observed 21.0 percentage point drop in this outcome's probability on May 02, 2026, suggests a market shift towards higher price expectations, which is not clearly supported by the provided information. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver, and no other clear primary driver for this specific market movement can be definitively identified from the given sources.
Sources (14)
- 1businessinsider.commarkets.businessinsider.com
- 2gulfnews.com
- 3coloradopolitics.com
- 4Oil prices fall after U.S. says Iran ceasefire remains in placecnbc.com
- 5Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 6Updating Our Oil Forecasteconomics.bmo.com
- 7Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Yet Againoilprice.com
- 8Kalshi traders think U.S. oil prices are set to hit new 2026 highscnbc.com
- 9WTI Jumps as Hormuz Threats Risetradingeconomics.com
- 10Crude Oil prices surge as Iran reportedly hits US warshipfxstreet.com
- 11Global oil prices top $114 and settle at 4-year high after Iranian attacks on UAE revive worries of further supply disruptionsmsn.com
- 12fxstreet.com
- 13stonex.com
- 14naga.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if ICE reports the minimum WTI front-month settle price falls below $70.00 between its issuance on April 8, 2026, and December 31, 2026. If the price remains at or above $70.00 during this period, the market resolves to "No." The market closes the following 10 am ET after the event occurs, or by December 31, 2026, 2:30 pm EST, with payout projected 1 hour later.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79.99 or below | $0.77 | $0.24 | 76% |
| 74.99 or below | $0.61 | $0.40 | 60% |
| 69.99 or below | $0.50 | $0.51 | 50% |
| 64.99 or below | $0.34 | $0.69 | 34% |
| 59.99 or below | $0.22 | $0.82 | 22% |
| 54.99 or below | $0.15 | $0.92 | 15% |
| 49.99 or below | $0.10 | $0.93 | 14% |
Market Discussion
Traders are debating whether WTI oil has already established its yearly low, with some users pointing to recent drops around $83 and suggesting the market might be misaligned with current price action. Arguments for prices going lower include the potential failure of an unspecified "deal," while counterarguments express confidence that prices will not fall significantly. Despite comments questioning the market's timing, the market probabilities currently indicate a strong likelihood (60%) of WTI reaching $74.99 or below by year-end.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score86Strong
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the Q4 2026 WTI forecasts from the EIA and Goldman Sachs differ based on their underlying assumptions about global supply-demand balance?
| Goldman Sachs Q4 2026 WTI Forecast | $83/b [1][2] |
|---|---|
| EIA Q4 2026 Brent Forecast | below $90/b [3] |
| Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 Supply Deficit | 9.6 mb/d [1] |
Goldman Sachs and the EIA project differing Q4 2026 oil prices. Goldman Sachs forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $83 per barrel (/b) for Q4 2026 [1][2]. In contrast, the EIA anticipates Brent prices will fall below $90/b during the same period, suggesting WTI will be below $86/b, assuming a $4/b Brent-WTI spread [3]. These divergent outlooks stem from contrasting assumptions about the global supply-demand balance, specifically concerning the severity of potential supply disruptions and their impact on inventories [3][4][1][5].
The EIA anticipates a near-balanced market by late 2026. The EIA's April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects Brent to fall below $90/b in Q4 2026, based on the assumption that regional conflicts will end post-April and the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal operations late in 2026 [3]. For the full year 2026, the EIA projects global liquids production at 104.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) and consumption at 104.6 mb/d, indicating a market that is close to equilibrium after accounting for potential disruptions [4]. The agency also foresees demand growth of 0.6 mb/d and notes that high U.S. inventories contribute to WTI prices being softer than Brent [3][5].
Goldman Sachs forecasts higher prices due to significant supply shocks. The investment bank's April 26, 2026 forecast sets Q4 2026 WTI at $83/b and Brent at $90/b [1][2]. This projection is predicated on a substantial Middle East output loss of 14.5 mb/d [1]. Goldman Sachs projects this supply shock will result in a significant 9.6 mb/d supply deficit in Q2 2026, which marks a sharp reversal from a 1.8 mb/d surplus observed in 2025 [1]. Although a demand drop of 1.7 mb/d is projected for Q2, the full-year demand is expected to decrease by only 0.1 mb/d, with inventory draws anticipated to support higher prices [1].
Sources (5)
- 1Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 oil forecasts. Mid East output loss drive big inventory draw | investingLiveinvestinglive.com
- 2Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast for Q4 2026 | IDNFinancialsidnfinancials.com
- 3https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf?os=fuzzscan3WOtreia.gov
- 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 5Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
7. What geopolitical de-escalation scenarios in the Middle East during Q3-Q4 2026 are most likely to push WTI prices below the $70 per barrel consensus forecast?
| Hormuz Closure Flow Reduction | 20 million bpd (approximate) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Price Drop after Hormuz Reopening | 10-18% (to $81-97) [3][4][5][6] |
| Analyst Forecast Brent/WTI (end-2026) | $70 Brent, $67-68 WTI (approximate) [7][8][9] |
A US-Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening are critical for de-escalation scenarios. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 significantly reduced global oil flows by approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd), contributing to Brent price spikes [1][2]. The reopening of the Strait, potentially facilitated by a US-Iran ceasefire, is projected to immediately decrease oil prices by 10-18%, potentially bringing Brent crude prices to a range of $81-97 per barrel [3][4][5][6]. Historical data supports this, showing that previous ceasefire announcements have led to oil price drops of 11-18% [3][4][10].
Comprehensive resolution, including increased supply, can drive WTI below $70. Beyond the immediate impact of the Strait's reopening, a full resolution of regional conflicts, including an additional 1 million bpd of Iranian supply and the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts, is anticipated to push WTI prices below the $70 per barrel consensus forecast [10][11]. Analyst forecasts, including those from EIA, suggest Brent prices around $70 and WTI at $67-68 or in the low-$70s by the end of 2026, assuming a normalization of the Strait of Hormuz in late 2026 [7][8][9]. The prediction market in April 2026 further reflected a 76¢ probability for WTI falling below $70 by year-end, indicating a strong likelihood that significant de-escalation could achieve this price point [12].
Sources (12)
- 1Middle East War to Spark Biggest Energy Price Surge in Four Yearsworldbank.org
- 2Brent Crude Surges on Strait of Hormuz Blockade 2026discoveryalert.com.au
- 3Oil prices fall below $100 as stocks rise amid hopes of US-Iran peace dealtelegraph.co.uk
- 4Middle East peace hopes send oil prices on sharp downward turnbairdmaritime.com
- 5Ceasefire deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz eases global energy crisis fearsworldoil.com
- 6Hormuz Strait Reopens After Ceasefire: Is Oil's Plunge Already Priced In? | MarketPulsemarket-pulse.co
- 7Oil Price Forecast 2026: What Brent and WTI Could Do This Yearfinancialdeepdive.com
- 8WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook for 2026 - Price of Oilpriceofoil.com
- 9Oil Price Forecast 2026: Brent $72, WTI $67 Between War Risk And $60 Targetstradingnews.com
- 10The Implications of the April 2026 U.S.–Iran Ceasefire on Oil Prices - Al Habtoor Research Centrehabtoorresearch.com
- 11Can We Expect a Short-Term Economic Recovery in Q3 2026 as the US–Iran Ceasefire Holds?defencetrading.com
- 12How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
8. What production data from non-OPEC+ countries and demand forecasts from the IEA support the bearish case for WTI falling into the $50-60 range by Q4 2026?
| Looming surplus in early 2026 | 2.1-4 million b/d (Forbes, December 2025) [1] |
|---|---|
| Non-OPEC+ supply increase forecast 2025 | 1.8 million b/d (IEA, January 2026) [2] |
| U.S. crude oil production forecast 2026 | 13.7 million b/d (Permian basin ~50%) [3] |
Non-OPEC+ countries are forecast to significantly increase global oil supply through 2026. This growth is projected to drive substantial global oil supply gains, leading to an oversupplied market [3][1][2]. Key contributors include the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil [3][1]. Specifically, the Permian basin is expected to account for approximately 50% of U.S. crude oil production, which is forecast to reach 13.7 million b/d in 2026 [3]. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in a January 2026 report, projected non-OPEC+ producers to contribute 1.8 million b/d to the global supply increase in 2025 and 1.3 million b/d in 2026 [2]. Overall, increased output from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina is considered "more than sufficient to cover the growth in global demand in the coming years" [4].
The IEA anticipates a substantial supply surplus, prompting potential painful price adjustments. The IEA has moderated its demand growth forecasts, anticipating a substantial supply surplus that could lead to painful price adjustments [5][1]. Before recent geopolitical events, IEA forecasts already suggested a moderation in global oil demand growth, leading to a potential oversupplied market [5]. In February 2026, the IEA further cut its demand growth forecast for the year to 850 thousand b/d (down from 930 thousand b/d in January) due to rising prices impacting growth prospects, while still anticipating a substantial supply surplus [5]. A December 2025 Forbes article, citing independent forecasts, highlighted a "looming surplus of 2.1-4 million barrels per day in early 2026" which it suggested would be "enough to overwhelm storage and force painful price adjustments" if not absorbed by unexpected demand growth [1]. While these facts describe conditions supporting a bearish case, they do not explicitly forecast WTI prices falling into the $50-60 range by Q4 2026.
9. What trends in capital expenditure and price expectations can be identified from the quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Surveys published during 2026?
| Oilfield Services Capex Outlook | Nearly half of executives foresaw a decrease (Q4 2025 Survey) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 WTI Price Range | $50 to $135 by year-end 2026 (Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026) [3] |
| EIA 2026 WTI Average | Near $73.61/bbl in 2026 (U.S. Energy Information Administration) [4] |
Capital expenditure plans revealed mixed and uncertain trends in 2026. While the Q1 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey initially reported stronger capital spending plans among firms, an April 2026 update indicated that extreme oil price volatility was creating uncertainty for E&P firms, deterring them from increasing activity and spending, even when oil prices exceeded $90 per barrel [3][5]. This uncertainty was mirrored in the Q4 2025 Survey, published in December 2025, where nearly half of oilfield services executives anticipated a decrease in capital spending [1][2].
WTI oil price expectations for year-end 2026 varied considerably across sources. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026 reported a broad range of WTI price expectations, from $50 to $135, attributing this wide spectrum to heightened geopolitical volatility [3]. In contrast, the Q4 2025 survey projected WTI oil prices to average $62 per barrel by year-end 2026, with individual estimates spanning $50 to $82 [1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted WTI to average near $73.61/bbl in 2026, simultaneously projecting Brent crude to fall below $80/b in Q3 2026 and around $70/b by year-end [4]. Furthermore, in April 2026, Polymarket traders assigned a 65% probability that WTI crude oil futures would trade at $120 per barrel at some point during 2026, indicating an expectation of potential intraday price spikes [6].
10. What evidence from OPEC+ production reports and U.S. inventory data from Q2 and Q3 2026 would validate bullish forecasts of WTI prices remaining above $80?
| OPEC+ June 2026 Production Cut | 188 kb/d (June 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| US Crude Inventory Drawdown | -6.2M bbl (prior to May week) [3][4] |
| WTI Price | above $100 (May 2026) [5][6][4] |
Bullish forecasts for WTI prices above $80 are validated by tightened supply. OPEC+ implemented significant production adjustments and pauses during Q2 2026, including a 188 kilobarrels per day (kb/d) cut in June, building on prior voluntary reductions ranging from 1.65 to 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) designed to stabilize the market [1][2]. Further constraining supply, a Middle East conflict reportedly led to a substantial 27% month-over-month decrease in OPEC output, dropping to 20.8 mb/d in March [7].
U.S. crude inventory reductions significantly reinforced bullish market sentiment. Commercial crude inventories experienced notable draws, including a 2.3 million barrel (M bbl) reduction in one May week and an earlier 6.2 M bbl draw, bringing the total to 457 M bbl, which is 1% above the five-year average [3][4]. Although OPEC lowered its Q2 demand forecast by 0.5 mb/d due to the conflict, it maintained a robust overall demand growth outlook of 1.4 mb/d for 2026 [7][8].
These combined factors propelled WTI prices beyond $100. The confluence of curtailed supply and decreasing inventories created market conditions where WTI traded above $100 in May 2026, following Q2 highs of $113 in April. Forecasts project a peak of $115, and prediction markets indicate a greater than 50% chance of new highs up to $127 [5][6][4].
Sources (8)
- 1Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesopec.org
- 2Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesopec.org
- 3EIA: US Crude Oil Inventories Continue to Fall | OilPrice.comoilprice.com
- 4https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdfeia.gov
- 5WTI Crude Oil Analysis: Why the Explosive $97 Breakout Signals More Pain for Bears in 2026prosignaltrades.com
- 6Kalshi traders think U.S. oil prices are set to hit new 2026 highscnbc.com
- 7OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran warreuters.com
- 8OPEC retains robust outlook for 2026 oil demand growthenergyconnects.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
OPEC+ actions are central to WTI price movements, with potential pressure toward the low $70s if the group unwinds faster than expected [1]. OPEC+ also took a production adjustment decision effective June 2026 after meeting on 3 May 2026 and plans monthly meetings, including a next highlighted meeting on 7 June 2026 in one preview [2][3]. These decisions and meetings are key catalysts determining whether WTI bears or bulls dominate into H2 and year-end [2][3].
Beyond OPEC+ influence, a separate prediction-market tracking the high of WTI by Dec 31, 2026 shows bullish tail-risk repricing tied to Middle East/geopolitical developments [4]. This serves as a proxy for how 'bullish catalysts' can oppose any bearish trend into year-end [4], particularly against a backdrop where some reporting implies WTI remains around low-$50s to high-$40s across much of 2026, with a full-year downward pressure narrative [5][6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: December 31, 2026
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (6)
- 1WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook for 2026 - Price of Oilpriceofoil.com
- 2Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesopec.org
- 3OPEC+ May 2026 Meeting: Saudi and Russia Decision Preview — The Middle East Insiderthemiddleeastinsider.com
- 4Kalshi traders think U.S. oil prices are set to hit new 2026 highscnbc.com
- 5EIA WTI forecast: Oil prices to stay under $60 into 2027mrt.com
- 6Oil Price Forecast: WTI Around $59 With $50–$70 Rangetradingnews.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T85: YES (Apr 28, 2026)
