Product launches Markets

Company KPI Tracker Market-implied forecasts for deliveries, subscribers, orders and DAU, against Octagon's own estimate.

Active Markets (11)

Will Rolex release a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 7.0%

25.9K contracts Refresh

Will xAI release a video game before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 40.0% 30.5%

17.3K contracts Refresh

Will Dodge release a new Challenger Hellcat before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 11.2%

11.9K contracts Refresh

Will BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 81.0% 85.4%

15.2K contracts Refresh

X re-launches Vine this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 7.1%

9.9K contracts Refresh

New Xbox this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 7.6%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 3.0% 1.9%

5.9K contracts Refresh

Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 12.8%

7.3K contracts Refresh

Will Sony Pictures Animation release 'KPop Demon Hunters 2" before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.0% 8.0%

56.4K contracts Refresh

When will any company achieve AGI? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 19.0% 21.7%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 28.0% 30.8%

25.5K contracts Refresh

Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 18.0% 1.1%

26.5K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will Rolex release a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel this year? Yes refers to: a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel	7.0%	7.0%	Med	69	Refresh
Will xAI release a video game before 2027? Yes refers to: Video Game	40.0%	30.5%	Med	72	Refresh
Will Dodge release a new Challenger Hellcat before 2027? Yes refers to: Dodge Challenger Hellcat	17.0%	11.2%	Med	68	Refresh
Will BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028? Yes refers to: Fully Electric M3	81.0%	85.4%	Med	75	Refresh
X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	11.0%	7.1%	Med	57	Refresh
New Xbox this year? Yes refers to: a new Xbox video game console	16.0%	7.6%	Med	71	Refresh
Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium this year? Yes refers to: a new reference in titanium	3.0%	1.9%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year? Yes refers to: a steel Nautilus reference	10.0%	12.8%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Sony Pictures Animation release 'KPop Demon Hunters 2" before 2027? Yes refers to: KPop Demon Hunters 2	8.0%	8.0%	Med	64	Refresh
When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	19.0%	21.7%	High	73	Refresh
Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	18.0%	1.1%	Med	72	Refresh

Expired Markets (2)

When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 79.0% 79.0%

62.9K contracts

SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6M contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027	79.0%	79.0%	Med	—
SpaceX Starship 12th launch?	—	—	High	—

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