Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
Elon Musk Markets
Company KPI Tracker Market-implied forecasts for deliveries, subscribers, orders and DAU, against Octagon's own estimate.Active Markets (4)
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 10.6%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 15.0% | 10.6% | Med | 58 | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | 72 | Refresh |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (5)
Yes
Market Model — —
SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — |
