Elon Musk Markets

Company KPI Tracker Market-implied forecasts for deliveries, subscribers, orders and DAU, against Octagon's own estimate.

Active Markets (4)

X re-launches Vine this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 7.1%

9.9K contracts Refresh

Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 10.6%

37.9K contracts Refresh

Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 3.0% 1.1%

Before July, 2027

Market Model 9.0% 1.1%

26.5K contracts Refresh

Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 6.3%

52.3K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	11.0%	7.1%	Med	59	Refresh
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	15.0%	10.6%	Med	61	Refresh
Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Top outcome: Before 2027	3.0%	1.1%	Med	75	Refresh
Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	9.0%	6.3%	Med	40	Refresh

Expired Markets (5)

How many launches will SpaceX have in May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

180.5K contracts

SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6M contracts

How many launches will SpaceX have in April? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

103.6K contracts

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

546.6K contracts

How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

736.8K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
How many launches will SpaceX have in May?	—	—	Med	—
SpaceX Starship 12th launch?	—	—	High	—
How many launches will SpaceX have in April?	—	—	High	—
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?	—	—	Med	—
How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026?	—	—	Med	—

Elon Musk Markets

Active Markets (4)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

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