Above 160
Market Model 36.0% 31.2%
Above 180
Market Model 23.0% 17.7%
Topic tracker · Science and Technology
SpaceX launches
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (1 live, 4 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new SpaceX launches markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 28, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in July? | August 1, 2026 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in May? | June 1, 2026 | 87.7% vs 88.0% | Report → |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in April? | May 1, 2026 | 88.0% vs 90.0% | Report → |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026? | March 1, 2026 | 92.5% vs 92.5% | Report → |
