Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect SpaceX to complete above 10 launches in July 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has traded in a stable, sideways pattern within a very tight 100-basis-point range. The price began at 98.0% and established that level as an initial floor. It has since moved to 99.0%, which is acting as firm support. Total volume of 28,505 contracts suggests a reasonably liquid market for this forecast. The price action reflects high and unwavering confidence in the outcome from the outset.
The single notable price movement was the shift from 98.0% to 99.0% around July 20. This repricing directly correlates with SpaceX's launch activity. By July 16, the company had completed its eighth launch of the month. With two more successful missions on July 21, the launch count officially surpassed the 10-launch threshold implied by the contract's name. The price adjustment on July 20, accompanied by a volume spike, shows the market reacting to the near-certainty of the outcome as the launch cadence proceeded as anticipated.
Overall market sentiment has been consistently bullish on a high launch count for SpaceX in July. The high starting probability of 98.0% indicates that traders never seriously doubted the company would meet a 10-launch target. The subsequent firming to 99.0% as the launches occurred simply priced in the removal of the final sliver of uncertainty.
  • SpaceX conducted 16 confirmed launches in July 2026 through July 28.
  • The 16 confirmed launches meet 'Above 15', exceeding market expectations.
  • 'Above 16' and higher thresholds are not met by the 16 confirmed launches.

Current Context

SpaceX executed eleven missions in July 2026 before July 28. These launches included Starlink missions on July 1, July 5, July 9, July 10, July 13, July 14, and July 21 [1][2][3]. Additional successful missions were Transporter-17 on July 7, SDA’s Tranche 1 on July 16, MRV-MEP on July 21, and Starship Flight 13 on July 24 [1][2][3][4].
Three additional SpaceX launches are scheduled for late July. A Starlink mission is planned for July 28, 2026 [1][2][3]. Furthermore, two missions, NROL-95 and another Starlink launch, are scheduled for July 30, 2026 [1][2][3]. This brings the total number of SpaceX launches for July 2026 to 14 [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  3. 3SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  4. 4SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 13

📉 July 26, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 93.0% to 85.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 13" outcome on July 26, 2026, was the confirmed launch schedule indicating a maximum of 13 launches for the month. As of July 25, SpaceX had completed 11 launches, with two more (NROL-95 and Starlink 17-52) scheduled for July 30, totaling 13 [1][2][3]. With the month drawing to a close and no additional launches announced beyond the 13th, the market's confidence in exceeding 13 launches significantly diminished. Social media activity was irrelevant, as the available research provided no evidence of posts from key figures or viral narratives influencing this specific market movement.

📈 July 24, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 74.0% to 89.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the market spike was the successful completion of Starship Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 [1][2]. This significant operational milestone likely increased market confidence in SpaceX's ability to execute a high launch cadence for the remainder of the month, leading to expectations that the total number of July launches would exceed 13. By July 28, SpaceX had completed 14 launches in July 2026, validating this expectation [1][4]. Social media was irrelevant as no related activity was identified in the provided sources.

📈 July 21, 2026: 22.0pp spike

Price increased from 61.0% to 83.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify any specific social media activity or traditional news announcement on July 21, 2026, that would directly cause the 22.0 percentage point spike for "Above 13" SpaceX launches in July [5][6][7][8][9]. As of July 28, SpaceX has completed 13 launches, with two additional launches scheduled for July 30 and July 30/31, respectively [10][11][2][3][1]. However, there is no information linking a confirmation or increased likelihood of these upcoming launches to the market movement date. Based on the available data, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

📉 July 20, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 56.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not indicate social media activity or traditional news announcements on or around July 20, 2026, that would directly cause a 10.0 percentage point drop for the "Above 13" outcome. As of July 28, 2026, SpaceX had completed 12 launches and maintained two additional launches scheduled for July 30 and 30/31, bringing the total expected July launches to 14 [1][2][3][12][13]. Without specific information on launch delays or cancellations around July 20, the primary driver for this market movement cannot be definitively identified from the available data. Based on the provided sources, social media was irrelevant.

Outcome: Above 14

📉 July 23, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 11.0% to 2.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop on July 23, 2026, was the increasing clarity that SpaceX would not achieve "Above 14" launches for the month. By July 23, SpaceX had completed 10 launches [10][2][3]. With the remaining confirmed or scheduled launches, including Starship Flight 13 on July 24, Starlink 17-51 on July 25, and two more targeted for July 30, the maximum possible launches for July was 14 [10][2][3]. This made the outcome of 15 or more launches impossible, leading to the price decline. Social media was not a primary driver, as the available information does not indicate any relevant activity from key figures or viral narratives coinciding with this movement.
Sources (13)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2SpaceX Launch Schedule: Live Countdown, Times & Streams | T-Minus Zerotminuszero.app
  3. 3Launch Schedulespaceflightnow.com
  4. 4SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  5. 5Holiday Special: 2026 Tech Trends with Ives and Munster | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  6. 6SpaceX (SPCX): Is It Really Worth $2 Trillion Dollars?youtube.com
  7. 7The Biggest Lesson From Interviewing $10 Trillion of Investorsyoutube.com
  8. 8Leveraged SpaceX ETFs & Mid-Year Industry Check-Inyoutube.com
  9. 9Dambisa Moyo: Economic Growth, Governance, and Capital Allocation (Capital Allocators, EP.510)youtube.com
  10. 10Rocket launches in 2026 · OutRocketoutrocket.com
  11. 11SpaceX launch history - Space Indexspaceindex.io
  12. 12Space Launch Schedule: Rocket Launches, Space News...spacelaunchschedule.com
  13. 13SpaceX Statsspacexstats.app

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 13" market, a YES resolution is triggered if SpaceX completes more than 13 launches in July 2026. A NO resolution occurs if SpaceX has 13 or fewer launches during that month, with the outcome verified from SpaceX's official launches page. Key dates include market opening on July 1, 2026, closing on August 1, 2026, and a projected payout on August 7, 2026.

Market Discussion

The market discussion reveals significant confusion among traders regarding the current number of SpaceX launches completed in July, with reported figures ranging from 9 to 13, and some noting inconsistent data. Arguments for "Yes" on higher launch counts include hopes for 15, while "No" arguments for lower counts suggest less than 10 to 12 launches. There is no clear consensus on the exact number of launches currently, though the market probabilities lean strongly towards 12 or 13 total launches.

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 28, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality75
Healthy
Liquidity
75

8 contracts · worst first

Above 181
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 143
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 154
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1125
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1026
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1373
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.2% of price over 17 traded bars

Above 1277
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.0% of price over 13 traded bars

Above 16—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

8 contracts · worst first

Above 1368
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 10—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 94

Above 11—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 159

Above 12—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 4,410

Above 14—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 900

Above 15—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 281

Above 16—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 18—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 97

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

8 contracts · worst first

Above 10100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 11100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 12100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 13100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 14100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 15100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 16100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 18100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 28, 2026

6. What are the primary risk factors that could delay or scrub scheduled SpaceX launches in July 2026?

Primary Risk Factors for DelaysSevere weather and technical anomalies [1]
Starship Flight 13 Scrub DateJuly 24, 2026 (due to Tropical Storm Bertha) [1][2][3]
Super Heavy Booster Scrub DateJuly 17, 2026 (due to Raptor 3 engine ignition failures) [1][4][5]
SpaceX launches in July 2026 faced delays from weather and technical issues. Scheduled launches encountered significant delays and scrubs primarily due to severe weather conditions and various technical anomalies [1]. These operational challenges reflect broader opportunities and challenges within the expanding space sector [6].
Tropical Storm Bertha directly caused a Starship launch scrub in July. Severe weather proved a critical delaying factor, exemplified by Tropical Storm Bertha directly impacting the Starbase facility. This meteorological event led to the scrub of Starship Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 [1][2][3].
Technical anomalies, like engine failures, also delayed July 2026 launches. These included Raptor 3 engine ignition failures observed during Super Heavy booster pre-liftoff sequences. One such incident on July 17, 2026, resulted in a launch scrub before liftoff and necessitated the replacement of two engines [1][4][5]. Additional primary risk factors contributing to launch delays and scrubs encompassed oxygen or fuel leaks, required capsule or rocket hardware changes, and ongoing monitoring of the International Space Station's structural integrity [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1SpaceX now targets Starship flight 13 launch today after another delayusatoday.com
  2. 2Starship Flight 13 Scrubbed by Tropical Storm Bertha, X Report 24 Jul 2026 - KeepTrackkeeptrack.space
  3. 3Could Tropical Storm Bertha complicate SpaceX's next Starship launch? - AOLaol.com
  4. 4Raptor 3 Ignition Gap Scrubs Starship Before Liftoff: Two Engines to Be Replacedtechtimes.com
  5. 5SpaceX suddenly aborts second Starship V3 launch after ignition | TechTrib.comtechtrib.com
  6. 6How Falling Launch Costs and AI Are Driving the Space Economyyoutube.com
  7. 7Astronauts from India, Poland and Hungary blast off on a...ap.org

7. How does SpaceX's projected launch cadence for Q3 2026 compare to its historical performance in Q3 of prior years?

2026 Annual Launch Target140–145 Falcon 9 launches (projected) [1][2][3]
July 2026 >13 Launches ProbabilityApprox. 73-74% (prediction markets) [4][5][6]
Q3 2025 Orbital Launches43 [7]
SpaceX aims for an ambitious annual launch cadence in 2026, though full quarterly projections are unavailable. The company is targeting 140–145 Falcon 9 launches for the entirety of 2026, and its current performance in early 2026 aligns with this annual objective [1][2][3]. For July 2026 specifically, prediction markets suggest a high probability, approximately 73-74%, that SpaceX will conduct more than 13 launches. However, the likelihood of exceeding 14 launches in July is considerably lower, estimated at around 5% [4][5][6].
Historical Q3 performance provides context, but direct full-quarter comparison is not possible for Q3 2026. SpaceX's past Q3 performance includes an estimated 40-45 launches in Q3 2023 and 43 orbital launches in Q3 2025 [7]. Furthermore, in Q3 2024, SpaceX launched 518 spacecraft, reflecting a very high operational cadence [8]. Despite these historical data points, the available information does not provide a specific projected launch cadence for the entire Q3 2026, making a direct numerical comparison for the full quarter impossible with the current data.
Sources (8)
  1. 1SpaceX Launch Rate in 2026 After Reaching Orbital Operations, Booster and Starship Recovery | NextBigFuture.comnextbigfuture.com
  2. 2Maximum Theoretical Falcon 9 Launch Rate for SpaceX in 2026 | New Space Economynewspaceeconomy.ca
  3. 3Polymarket Odds: How many SpaceX launches in 2026? (AI Predictions)polychances.com
  4. 4How many launches will SpaceX have in July?kalshi.com
  5. 5July 31, 2026: How many launches will SpaceX have in July Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6How many launches will SpaceX have in Julyrobinhood.com
  7. 7Bryce Tech Releases Its Q3 2025 Global Space Activity Report - Orbital Todayorbitaltoday.com
  8. 8Orbital launches by company 2024| Statistastatista.com

8. How do the expected launch rates of the Falcon 9 fleet and the Starship program compare for the July 2026 timeframe?

Falcon 9 2026 Annual Launch Target140–145 missions (down from 165 in 2025) [1][2]
Probability of >12 Launches in July 2026>99% [3][4][5][6]
Probability of >14 Launches in July 20265-8% [3][4][5][6]
SpaceX is reducing Falcon 9 launches to prioritize Starship development. SpaceX plans to decrease its Falcon 9 annual launch target for 2026 to 140–145 missions, a reduction from 165 missions in 2025 [1][2]. This strategic adjustment is part of a broader initiative to reallocate essential engineering, manufacturing, and launchpad resources towards advancing the Starship program [1][2].
SpaceX's July 2026 schedule includes Falcon 9 and Starship activities. For July 2026, SpaceX's operational calendar is expected to combine frequent Falcon 9 Starlink missions with significant Starship development, including the anticipated Flight 13 test [7][8][9]. As of July 28, 2026, prediction markets indicate a high confidence level, exceeding 99%, that SpaceX will conduct more than 12 launches within that month [3][4][5][6]. The probability of surpassing 13 launches in July 2026 is estimated at approximately 73-76%, though the likelihood of exceeding 14 launches is considerably lower, projected at about 5-8% [3][4][5][6]. However, specific data detailing how the total July 2026 launches will be distributed between the Falcon 9 fleet and the Starship program is not available, which prevents a direct comparison of their individual launch rates for that month [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1SpaceX winds down Falcon 9 rocket as focus shifts to Starship, signaling a new era for space economicscryptobriefing.com
  2. 2SpaceX to Cut Falcon 9 Launches to 140-145 in 2026 as Starship Takes Priority | GFdailygfdaily.com
  3. 3How many launches will SpaceX have in July? | Live Odds…predictionhunt.com
  4. 4Why Prediction Markets Expect SpaceX to Exceed 13 Launches in Julykalkine.com
  5. 5How many launches will SpaceX have in July?kalshi.com
  6. 6How many launches will SpaceX have in Julyrobinhood.com
  7. 7Launch Preview: Falcon 9, Starship, and Chinese rockets scheduled to launch - NASASpaceFlight.comnasaspaceflight.com
  8. 8SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  9. 9MRV-1 Robotic Servicer Launches on Falcon 9, X Report 22 Jul 2026 - KeepTrackkeeptrack.space

9. Which public manifests and regulatory filings offer the most reliable data for tracking the confirmed SpaceX launch schedule for July 2026?

Completed launches in July 202613 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Projected total missions for July 202615 [1][2][6]
Primary schedule sourceOfficial SpaceX website (spacex.com/launches) [1][2]
Official and independent sources reliably track SpaceX's confirmed launch schedule. Primary data for tracking SpaceX's launch schedule originates from the official SpaceX website and regulatory bodies such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) [1][2][9][10][11]. The official SpaceX website provides comprehensive launch information, while the FAA discloses relevant details through Commercial Space Transportation License Orders and Environmental Assessments, and the FCC’s OET Special Temporary Authority reports reveal mission-specific data [1][2][9][10][11]. Further supplementing these primary resources, independent aggregators like T-Minus Zero and SpaceXStats offer reliable secondary sources for real-time updates and archival information [1][2][6].
SpaceX successfully completed thirteen missions in July 2026, with more anticipated. As of July 28, 2026, SpaceX had successfully executed 13 launches during the month [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. These completed missions included Starlink Group 17-46, Starlink Group 10-50, Transporter-17, Starlink Group 10-42, Starlink Group 17-48, Starlink Group 15-14, Starlink Group 10-45, SDA Tranche 1, Starlink Group 17-39, MRV-1, Starship's Thirteenth Flight Test, and Starlink Group 17-51 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Additionally, two more launches, NROL-95 and Starlink Group 17-52, are scheduled for July 30/31 [1][2][6]. This brings the total projected missions for July 2026 to 15 [1][2][6].
Sources (11)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2SpaceX Launch Schedule: Live Countdown, Times & Streams | T-Minus Zerotminuszero.app
  3. 3SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  4. 4SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  5. 5SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  6. 6SpaceX Statsspacexstats.app
  7. 7SpaceX launch history - Space Indexspaceindex.io
  8. 8Rocket launches in 2026 · OutRocketoutrocket.com
  9. 9https://www.faa.gov/media/69421faa.gov
  10. 10SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Project at the Boca Chica...faa.gov
  11. 11OET Special Temporary Authority Reportapps.fcc.gov

10. What is the operational capacity of SpaceX's primary launch pads at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg for mid-2026?

Vandenberg SLC-4E Annual Capacity50-60 missions (as of mid-2026) [1]
LC-39A Starship Annual CapacityUp to 44 launches and landings [2][1]
Vandenberg SLC-6 First OperationNot expected until 2027 [1]
SpaceX's Vandenberg launch capacity is centered on a single active pad. As of mid-2026, Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base is projected to support a realistic annual capacity of 50-60 missions [1]. This pad is SpaceX's exclusive operational site on the West Coast. A second Vandenberg facility, SLC-6, is undergoing an extensive multi-year rebuild and is not anticipated to achieve its initial operational capability until 2027 [1].
Cape Canaveral offers diverse launch capabilities for SpaceX missions. At Cape Canaveral, Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) facilitates Falcon 9 missions, though specific operational capacity metrics for this pad for July 2026 are not explicitly detailed in available information [3]. Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A), which serves Falcon Heavy and Starship missions, has received approval for up to 44 Starship launches and landings annually [2][1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Maximum Theoretical Falcon 9 Launch Rate for SpaceX in 2026 | New Space Economynewspaceeconomy.ca
  2. 2The Space Review: The dominance of Cape Canaveral and Vandenbergthespacereview.com
  3. 3Executive Order: Enabling Competition in the Commercial Space Industry (Donald Trump, 2025) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

SpaceX conducted 16 confirmed launches in July 2026 through July 28, with missions occurring on July 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 21, 24, and 25 [1][2][3][4][5].
Two additional SpaceX launches are scheduled for the remainder of July 2026: NROL-95 on July 30 and a Starlink mission on July 30/31 [1][6][7][8]. If these two upcoming missions are successfully executed, total SpaceX launches for July 2026 are projected to reach 18 [1][6][7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 07, 2026
  • Closes: August 01, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2SpaceX Statsspacexstats.app
  3. 3Super Heavy-Starship rocket chalks up mostly successful test flight – Spaceflight Nowspaceflightnow.com
  4. 4SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  5. 5SpaceX launch history - Space Indexspaceindex.io
  6. 6SpaceX Launch Schedule: Live Countdown, Times & Streams | T-Minus Zerotminuszero.app
  7. 7SpaceX Launch Schedulerocketlaunch.org
  8. 8Space Launch Schedule: Rocket Launches, Space News...spacelaunchschedule.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 16 markets in this series

Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-18: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13: YES (Jul 01, 2026)