Before 2027
Market Model 12.4% 6.2%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Space Markets
Active Markets (4)
NASA lands on the moon? Kalshi
Before 2027
Market Model 1.6% 0.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 5.3% 1.8%
Above 160
Market Model 36.0% 31.2%
Above 180
Market Model 23.0% 17.7%
United States
Market Model 54.0% 41.8%
China
Market Model 32.4% 24.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 12.4% | 6.2% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 1.6% | 0.6% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 36.0% | 31.2% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 54.0% | 41.8% | Med | 72 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (4)
SpaceX Starship 14th launch? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
How many SpaceX launches in 2026? Polymarket
200 or more
Market Model 5.0% 6.4%
160-179
Market Model 26.0% 32.0%
Total space launches in July Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? Top outcome: 200 or more | 5.0% | 6.4% | High | 52 | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — |
