AI Markets

Active Markets (4)

OpenAI

Market Model 47.0% 37.8%

xAI

Market Model 16.0% 5.1%

$257,936.56 Refresh

Before Jul 1, 2026

Market Model 3.0% 1.7%

Before Aug 1, 2026

Market Model 7.0% 4.0%

$1,111,054.43 Refresh

At least 90%

Market Model 7.0% 8.6%

At least 85%

Market Model 6.0% 8.6%

$2,271.01 Refresh

At least 1550 score

Market Model 40.0% 56.0%

At least 1575 score

Market Model 25.0% 31.5%

$70,699 Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	Volume
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI	47.0%	37.8%	Med	$257,936.56	Refresh
When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026	3.0%	1.7%	High	$1,111,054.43	Refresh
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90%	7.0%	8.6%	High	$2,271.01	Refresh
AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score	40.0%	56.0%	Med	$70,699	Refresh