Above 300T tokens
Market Model 99.0% 99.0%
Above 700T tokens
Market Model 42.0% 23.3%
AI Markets
Active Markets (8)
Gemini
Market Model 29.0% 29.2%
ChatGPT
Market Model 56.0% 40.8%
OpenAI
Market Model 47.0% 37.8%
xAI
Market Model 16.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 20.8%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 22.9% 28.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 18.0% 11.1%
At least 90%
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
At least 85%
Market Model 6.0% 8.6%
Best AI at the end of 2026? Kalshi
Claude
Market Model 62.1% 32.5%
Gemini
Market Model 22.1% 37.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenRouter AI token usage in September Top outcome: Above 300T tokens | 99.0% | 99.0% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE) Top outcome: Gemini | 29.0% | 29.2% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 47.0% | 37.8% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 16.0% | 20.8% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90% | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 62.1% | 32.5% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (27)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Qwen market share this week Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Most popular AI this week Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 30.0% 18.1%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 56.0% 37.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI this week? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI in Feb 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI this week? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 70 | ||
| — | — | High | 83 | ||
| — | — | Med | 83 | ||
| — | — | High | 80 | ||
| — | — | High | 73 | ||
| — | — | High | 79 | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 30.0% | 18.1% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 9.8% | Med | 52 | |
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