AI Markets

Active Markets (12)

Next Gemini Pro model release Kalshi

Before Nov 16, 2026

Market Model 10.0% 18.3%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 32.0% 21.8%

76.9K contracts Refresh

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score Kalshi

above 1500

Market Model 56.0% 72.8%

above 1495

Market Model 64.0% 72.8%

70.7K contracts Refresh

Best AI at the end of 2026? Kalshi

Claude

Market Model 74.3% 64.3%

ChatGPT

Market Model 11.7% 17.9%

12.3M contracts Refresh

Where will Waymo operate in 2026? Kalshi

Denver, CO

Market Model 76.0% 83.5%

San Diego, CA

Market Model 83.0% 88.9%

282.8K contracts Refresh

When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? Kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 74.0% 75.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 78.0% 75.0%

17.5K contracts Refresh

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Kalshi

At least 60%

Market Model 60.0% 78.0%

At least 65%

Market Model 38.0% 68.7%

40.2K contracts Refresh

When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 72.0% 54.2%

532.5K contracts Refresh

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 9.8%

$47.9K Refresh

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Kalshi

OpenAI

Market Model 47.0% 37.8%

xAI

Market Model 16.0% 5.1%

257.9K contracts Refresh

Tesla Optimus released this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 20.8%

306.7K contracts Refresh

When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 7.0% 8.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 22.9% 28.8%

551.9K contracts Refresh

When will Anthropic release Mythos? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 28.0% 16.6%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 22.0% 12.9%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Next Gemini Pro model release Top outcome: Before Nov 16, 2026	10.0%	18.3%	High	72	Refresh
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score Top outcome: above 1500	56.0%	72.8%	High	69	Refresh
Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude	74.3%	64.3%	High	80	Refresh
Where will Waymo operate in 2026? Top outcome: Denver, CO	76.0%	83.5%	Med	76	Refresh
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? Top outcome: Before Dec 1, 2026	74.0%	75.0%	High	74	Refresh
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 60%	60.0%	78.0%	High	74	Refresh
When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Yes refers to: Before 2027	72.0%	54.2%	High	—	Refresh
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	9.8%	Med	53	Refresh
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI	47.0%	37.8%	Med	72	Refresh
Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	16.0%	20.8%	Med	69	Refresh
When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2027	7.0%	8.6%	High	75	Refresh
When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	28.0%	16.6%	High	71	Refresh

Expired Markets (40)

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

20.6K contracts

Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.5K contracts

Top AI model this month Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

67.8K contracts

Top Coding AI this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.3K contracts

Top Text to Speech AI this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.1K contracts

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 26, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.5K contracts

DeepSeek market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

156.7K contracts

DeepSeek market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

427.7K contracts

Google market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

172.2K contracts

Anthropic market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

93.5K contracts

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

31.9K contracts

Google market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

243.4K contracts

DeepSeek market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

21.9K contracts

OpenAI market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

35.9K contracts

DeepSeek market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.3K contracts

Google market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

52.3K contracts

Tencent market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

70.3K contracts

Qwen market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

12.4K contracts

Anthropic market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

23.5K contracts

OpenRouter AI token usage in September Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.7K contracts

Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27.4K contracts

Most popular AI this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.1K contracts

OpenRouter AI token usage: Aug 24–30 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

25.7K contracts

Stealth market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

69.5K contracts

When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

29.2K contracts

Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

282 contracts

Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by May 31, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.0K contracts

NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2 contracts

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

410 contracts

NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27 contracts

NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

216 contracts

NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

193 contracts

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

160 contracts

NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

351 contracts

AI capability growth before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

70.7K contracts

Best AI this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

334.9K contracts

Best AI in Feb 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6M contracts

What will be the top AI model this month? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.2M contracts

Best AI this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

443.7K contracts

What will be the top AI model this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

264.1K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1	—	—	High	71
Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter)	—	—	High	64
Top AI model this month	—	—	High	69
Top Coding AI this week	—	—	High	76
Top Text to Speech AI this week	—	—	High	62
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 26, 2026	—	—	High	75
DeepSeek market share this week	—	—	High	81
DeepSeek market share this week	—	—	High	84
Google market share this week	—	—	High	79
Anthropic market share this week	—	—	High	83
OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11	—	—	High	78
Google market share this week	—	—	High	83
DeepSeek market share this week	—	—	High	71
OpenAI market share this week	—	—	High	70
DeepSeek market share this week	—	—	High	83
Google market share this week	—	—	Med	83
Tencent market share this week	—	—	High	80
Qwen market share this week	—	—	High	73
Anthropic market share this week	—	—	High	79
OpenRouter AI token usage in September	—	—	High	73
Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE)	—	—	High	73
Most popular AI this week	—	—	High	—
OpenRouter AI token usage: Aug 24–30	—	—	High	—
Stealth market share this week	—	—	High	—
When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7?	—	—	High	—
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026?	—	—	High	—
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by May 31, 2026?	—	—	High	—
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
AI capability growth before July?	—	—	Med	—
Best AI this week?	—	—	Med	—
Best AI in Feb 2026?	—	—	Med	—
What will be the top AI model this month?	—	—	High	—
Best AI this week?	—	—	Med	—
What will be the top AI model this week?	—	—	Med	—

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