OpenAI
Market Model 47.0% 37.8%
xAI
Market Model 16.0% 5.1%
AI Markets
Active Markets (6)
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 20.8%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 22.9% 28.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
At least 90%
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
At least 85%
Market Model 6.0% 8.6%
Best AI at the end of 2026? Kalshi
Claude
Market Model 62.1% 32.5%
Gemini
Market Model 22.1% 37.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 47.0% | 37.8% | Med | $257,936.56 | Refresh |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 16.0% | 20.8% | Med | $306,699.53 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | $551,899.08 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | $1,111,054.43 | Refresh |
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90% | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | $2,271.01 | Refresh |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 62.1% | 32.5% | Med | $1,135,017 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (15)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI this week? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI in Feb 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI this week? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $282 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,044.13 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2 | ||
| — | — | Med | $410 | ||
| — | — | Med | $27 | ||
| — | — | Med | $216 | ||
| — | — | Med | $193 | ||
| — | — | Med | $160 | ||
| — | — | Med | $351 | ||
| — | — | Med | $70,699 | ||
| — | — | Med | $334,912 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,626,854 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,193,012 | ||
| — | — | Med | $443,679 | ||
| — | — | Med | $264,092 |
