Above 20.1%
Market Model 87.0% 91.3%
Above 19.9%
Market Model 97.0% 98.1%
AI Markets
Active Markets (12)
Before Oct 16, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 3.5%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 14.8%
above 1500
Market Model 56.0% 72.8%
above 1495
Market Model 64.0% 72.8%
Above 23.7%
Market Model 25.0% 33.2%
Above 23.0%
Market Model 42.0% 49.7%
Best AI at the end of 2026? Kalshi
Claude
Market Model 74.3% 64.3%
ChatGPT
Market Model 11.7% 17.9%
Denver, CO
Market Model 76.0% 83.5%
San Diego, CA
Market Model 83.0% 88.9%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 80.0% 75.0%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 74.0% 75.0%
At least 60%
Market Model 60.0% 78.0%
At least 65%
Market Model 38.0% 68.7%
OpenAI
Market Model 47.0% 37.8%
xAI
Market Model 16.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 20.8%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 22.9% 28.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 18.0% 11.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google market share this week Top outcome: Above 20.1% | 87.0% | 91.3% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Next Gemini Pro model release Top outcome: Before Oct 16, 2026 | 6.0% | 3.5% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score Top outcome: above 1500 | 56.0% | 72.8% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| DeepSeek market share this week Top outcome: Above 23.7% | 25.0% | 33.2% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 74.3% | 64.3% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Where will Waymo operate in 2026? Top outcome: Denver, CO | 76.0% | 83.5% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 80.0% | 75.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 60% | 60.0% | 78.0% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 47.0% | 37.8% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 16.0% | 20.8% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | 71 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (29)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Qwen market share this week Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Most popular AI this week Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 56.0% 37.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 72.0% 54.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI this week? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI in Feb 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Best AI this week? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 70 | ||
| — | — | High | 83 | ||
| — | — | Med | 83 | ||
| — | — | High | 80 | ||
| — | — | High | 73 | ||
| — | — | High | 79 | ||
| — | — | High | 73 | ||
| — | — | High | 73 | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 56.0% | 37.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 9.8% | Med | 53 | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
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