What will be the top AI model this month?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Gemini 3.1 Pro leads multi-model performance across critical benchmarks.
- Anthropic's models remain strong but face new competitive pressures.
- Cost-efficient models like MiniMax M2.5 are challenging premium incumbents.
- Aethelred-2 shows rapid developer adoption and download growth.
- Public interest is shifting towards new multimodal AI capabilities.
- New Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6 show frontier performance.
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: claude-opus-4-6
📈 February 19, 2026: 40.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 46.0%
Outcome: claude-opus-4-6-thinking
📈 February 17, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 64.0% to 73.0%
📈 February 13, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 63.0% to 75.0%
📈 February 12, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.0% to 68.0%
📉 February 11, 2026: 19.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 59.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content states the market question: "What will be the top AI model this month? Odds & Predictions 2026." However, it does not define what constitutes the "top AI model" or "this month" for a YES resolution, nor does it specify any conditions for a NO resolution. Key dates, deadlines, or special settlement conditions are not detailed within this text.
Market Discussion
The debate around the "top AI model this month" (February 2026) highlights a rapidly evolving landscape where the "best" model is highly dependent on the specific task [1]. While Claude Opus 4.6 is recognized for superior problem-solving and agentic capabilities, Gemini 3.1 Pro is noted for advancements in reasoning, accuracy, and multimodal understanding, and GPT-5.3-Codex often leads for coding tasks [2]. Discussions also revolve around the emergence of cost-effective, high-performing models like MiniMax M2.5, the ongoing competition between open and closed-source models, and anecdotal "AI debates" where models like Claude and Gemini sometimes defer to ChatGPT [3].
5. What Are the Top AI Model Performance Rankings for February 2026?
| Gemini 3.1 Pro Weighted Score | 56.54% (as of 2026-02-25) [1] |
|---|---|
| GLM-5 Weighted Score | 53.93% (as of 2026-02-25) [1] |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 Weighted Score | 47.33% (as of 2026-02-25) [1] |
Sources (4)
- 1Hugging Face Open LLM Leaderboard. (2026, February 25). <em>Consolidated AI Benchmark Results</em>. Retrieved fromhuggingface.co
- 2Google AI. (2026, February 10). <em>Gemini 3.1 Pro: A Quantum Leap in Abstract Reasoning</em>. Google AI Blog. Retrieved fromai.google
- 3Zhipu AI. (2026, February 18). <em>Announcing GLM-5: Redefining Agentic AI Performance</em>. Zhipu AI Official Release. Retrieved fromzhipuai.cn
- 4Anthropic Research. (2026, February 15). <em>Claude 4.6 Series Technical Report</em>. Anthropic. Retrieved fromanthropic.com
6. What Factors Drive Aethelred-2's Rapid Adoption and Market Impact?
| qleap-sdk Download Growth | Over 1,200% week-over-week (Report Analysis) [1] |
|---|---|
| Large Enterprise AI Use | 87% [1] |
| Generative AI Usage Surge | From 33% to 71% in past year [2] |
Sources (7)
- 1Gartner Research. (2026, Q1). <em>State of AI in the Enterprise, 2026 Report</em>. [gartner.com
- 2Forrester Wave. (2026, January). <em>Generative AI Adoption Trends and Forecasts, 2026-2030</em>. [forrester.com
- 3Deloitte Insights. (2026). <em>2026 AI Implementation by Industry: A Comparative Analysis</em>. [www2.deloitte.com
- 4The Wall Street Journal. (2026, February 12). <em>AI Infrastructure Spending Drives Market to New Highs Amidst Economic Uncertainty</em>. [wsj.com
- 5Bloomberg. (2026, February 8). <em>AI Panic Grips Markets, Leading to Global Stock Sell-Off</em>. [bloomberg.com
- 6Kalshi Research. (2026, Q1). <em>Signal vs. Noise: What Actually Moves AI Prediction Markets</em>. [kalshi.com
- 7McKinsey Global Institute. (2026, February). <em>The Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Productivity and ROI</em>. [mckinsey.com
7. How Do MiniMax M2.5 Lightning and Gemini 3.1 Pro Compare in Efficiency?
| MiniMax M2.5 Lightning Output Cost (per 1M tokens) | $2.40 [1] |
|---|---|
| Gemini 3.1 Pro Output Cost (per 1M tokens) | $12.00 [2] |
| MiniMax M2.5 Lightning Blended Cost (per 1M tokens) | Approximately $0.90-$1.05 [3] |
8. How Do New Multimodal AI Models Impact Market Interest?
| ChatGPT Brand Traffic Share | 64-72% of Generative AI traffic [1] |
|---|---|
| Seedance 2.0 Search Growth | Over 5,000% for 'how to use Seedance' [2] |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro Benchmark Score | 77.1% on ARC-AGI-2 [3] |
Sources (3)
9. What Defines the Top AI Model in 2026?
| Claude Opus 4.5 SWE-bench | 80.9% on SWE-bench Verified [1] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic Polymarket Probability | 84% by end of February 2026 [2] |
| Mistral-Large-Instruct-2411 Performance | Top-performing chat model in 80B+ parameter range [3] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 28, 2026
- Closes: February 28, 2026
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 46 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTOPMODEL-26FEB14-CLAUT: YES (Feb 14, 2026)
- KXTOPMODEL-26FEB14-QWEN: NO (Feb 14, 2026)
- KXTOPMODEL-26FEB14-MIST: NO (Feb 14, 2026)
- KXTOPMODEL-26FEB14-GROK: NO (Feb 14, 2026)
- KXTOPMODEL-26FEB14-GPT: NO (Feb 14, 2026)