Topic tracker · Science and Technology
Top model
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Top model markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated February 20, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model this month? | February 28, 2026 | 0.4% vs 0.5% | Report → |
| What will be the top AI model this week? | February 14, 2026 | 2.9% vs 3.0% | Report → |
