Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.8%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 40.0% 38.4%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (3)
Above 160
Market Model 36.0% 31.2%
Above 180
Market Model 23.0% 17.7%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 20.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.8% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 36.0% | 31.2% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 16.0% | 20.8% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (2)
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 13.0% 4.6%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 30.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve camizestrant for advanced breast cancer? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 13.0% | 4.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — |
