Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 40.0% 38.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 10.1%
Topic tracker · Science and Technology
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Will the FDA approve drug? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 20, 2026