Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.8%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 40.0% 38.4%
Topic tracker · Science and Technology
Will the FDA approve drug?
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (1 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Will the FDA approve drug? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 20, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve camizestrant for advanced breast cancer? | January 1, 2028 | 4.6% vs 13.0% | Report → |
