Product launches Markets

Active Markets (4)

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 1.0% 0.8%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 40.0% 38.4%

7.0K contracts Refresh

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 82.0% 79.1%

Before Oct 16, 2026

Market Model 95.0% 92.4%

216.2K contracts Refresh

Above 160

Market Model 36.0% 31.2%

Above 180

Market Model 23.0% 17.7%

349.8K contracts Refresh

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 20.8%

306.7K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	1.0%	0.8%	High	64	Refresh
SpaceX Starship 14th launch? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	82.0%	79.1%	Med	71	Refresh
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160	36.0%	31.2%	High	69	Refresh
Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	16.0%	20.8%	Med	69	Refresh

Expired Markets (2)

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 13.0% 4.6%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 6.0% 30.1%

12.3K contracts

Yes

Market Model — —

1.1M contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will the FDA approve camizestrant for advanced breast cancer? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	13.0%	4.6%	High	—
How many launches will SpaceX have in July?	—	—	High	—