Topic tracker · Science and Technology
Open weights AI market share
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Open weights AI market share markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated October 26, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 26, 2026 | October 27, 2026 | 99.8% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Open Source market share on Sep 30th | October 1, 2026 | 10.2% vs 20.0% | Report → |
| Open Source market share on Sep 28th | September 29, 2026 | 37.7% vs 23.0% | Report → |
