Short Answer

Both the model and the market identify release before Sep 4, 2026, as the most likely outcome for Grok 4.7. However, Elon Musk's projected timeline and history of unreliable releases suggest that a release before any of the specified thresholds is less probable.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price for the Grok 4.7 contract has followed a consistent downward trend, declining from a starting probability of 31.0% on August 11, 2026, to a current low of 17.0%. The most significant movement was an 8.0 percentage point drop on August 21, which pushed the price from 26.0% down to 18.0%. This sell-off was a direct reaction to comments from Elon Musk. Following the release of Grok 4.6 on August 12, Musk projected a timeline of "3 to 4 weeks" for Grok 4.7, which traders interpreted as pushing the expected release date outside the likely resolution window for this market.
The market has established a clear trading range between 17.0% and 36.0%. The current price of 17.0% represents the floor of this range and is acting as the primary support level. Total volume of 7,456 contracts indicates material participation, though the provided sample data does not show volume on key dates, limiting analysis of conviction during specific price moves. The steady price decay, accelerated by the new timeline guidance, indicates a firming market consensus that xAI will not release Grok 4.7 within the timeframe implied by the contract.
  • Release before September 4, 2026, is tempered by Elon Musk's history of unreliable timelines.
  • August releases appear unlikely given Elon Musk's projected September 2-9, 2026, release window.

Current Context

Grok 4.7 lacks official release; Musk projects early September. As of August 24, 2026, xAI (also referred to as SpaceXAI) has not officially released Grok 4.7. There is no official model card, API identifier, or pricing page available for the model [1][2][3][4]. Following the release of Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026, Elon Musk stated that Grok 4.7 is expected in "3 to 4 weeks" [1][5][3][4]. This places a potential release window in early-to-mid September 2026, roughly September 2–9 [1][5][3][4].
Grok 4.7, a large model, faces skepticism on release timing. Elon Musk describes Grok 4.7 as a ~2.1 trillion parameter model, currently undergoing supplemental training with proprietary SpaceX engineering data [1][2][4][6][7]. It is expected to be more token-efficient and outperform existing AI models [1][2][4][6][7]. However, previous release windows mentioned by Musk have proven unreliable; therefore, current dates are considered founder-led estimates rather than confirmed launch commitments [1][5][3].
Official xAI sources show no evidence of Grok 4.7's existence. There is no announcement or evidence from xAI regarding a future release date for "Grok 4.7" [8][9]. Academic literature from mid-2026 refers to various Grok versions (e.g., 4.1, 4.3, 4.20) and research papers, but Grok 4.7 does not appear in xAI's current product lineup or upcoming roadmap [8][9]. While "4.7" models exist from other providers (e.g., Claude Opus 4.7, GLM-4.7), no official xAI documentation or expert consensus identifies a Grok 4.7 model [10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Grok 4.7 Release Tracker 2026: Date, 2.1T Specs, vs Fable 5qcode.cc
  2. 2Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com
  3. 3Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  4. 4What Is Grok 4.7? The 2.1T xAI Model Explainedkie.ai
  5. 5https://explainx.ai/blog/grok-4-6-4-7-release-timeline-musk-announcement-july-2026explainx.ai
  6. 6Elon Claims SpaceXAI Grok 4.7 Will Surpass All Current Models – NextBigFuture.comnextbigfuture.com
  7. 7Elon Musk Claims Grok 4.7 Will Outperform All Existing AI Models | Gate Newsgate.com
  8. 8When AI Takes the Couch: Psychometric Jailbreaks Reveal Internal Conflict in Frontier Modelsarxiv.org
  9. 9When AI Takes Sides on Questions of Faith Persistent Asymmetries in AI-Mediated Faith Guidancearxiv.org
  10. 10Can Open-Weight Models Compete on Financial Text Comprehension?arxiv.org
  11. 11Benchmarking API Drift in LLM-Generated Quantum Code Across Successive SDK Versionsarxiv.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before Sep 4, 2026

📉 August 24, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 31.0%

What happened: The primary driver was Elon Musk's statement on August 12, 2026, indicating Grok 4.7 would be released in approximately 3 to 4 weeks, placing the expected window around September 2–9, 2026 [1][2][3]. This influential social media activity led the market to reassess the likelihood of a "Before Sep 4, 2026" release as the date approached [1][2][3]. By August 24, 2026, with no new release announcements [4], the diminishing time available before September 4 likely triggered the significant drop in perceived probability. Social media, specifically Musk's preceding statement, was the primary driver.

📈 August 23, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 49.0% to 90.0%

What happened: The primary driver was a statement by Elon Musk, who estimated Grok 4.7 would release '3 to 4 weeks' after Grok 4.6's August 12, 2026, launch [5][6][2]. This placed the expected release window in early-to-mid September 2026, with the earlier end (around September 2) directly supporting the "Before Sep 4, 2026" outcome [5][6]. While the precise timing of Musk's original social media post is not specified, it appeared to lead the August 23, 2026, price movement by setting strong market expectations. Consequently, social media activity was a primary driver, shaping the market's outlook for an imminent release.

📉 August 16, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 52.0% to 44.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price drop was a statement made by Elon Musk following the August 12, 2026, release of Grok 4.6. Musk stated that Grok 4.7 was expected in approximately 3–4 weeks [2]. This revised timeline, pushing the expected release to early-to-mid September 2026, made the outcome "Before Sep 4, 2026" less likely, causing the 8.0 percentage point decline on August 16, 2026 [2]. This communication from a key figure appeared to lead the price move, making social media (or similar public announcement) a primary driver.

Outcome: Before Aug 31, 2026

📉 August 21, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 26.0% to 18.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price drop was likely the estimated release timeline for Grok 4.7 provided by Elon Musk. Following Grok 4.6's release on August 12, 2026, Elon Musk provided an estimated release window of "3 to 4 weeks" for Grok 4.7 [2][1][6]. This timeframe suggested a target release in early September 2026, which would make a release before August 31, 2026, less probable, directly coinciding with the market's re-evaluation [2][1][6]. Social media was a primary driver, as Musk's statement directly contradicted the "Before Aug 31, 2026" outcome.
Sources (6)
  1. 1https://explainx.ai/blog/grok-4-6-4-7-release-timeline-musk-announcement-july-2026explainx.ai
  2. 2Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  3. 3What Is Grok 4.7? The 2.1T xAI Model Explainedkie.ai
  4. 4Hypothesis Frontier: Verifier-Guided LLM–Symbolic Search...arxiv.org
  5. 5Grok 4.7 Release Tracker 2026: Date, 2.1T Specs, vs Fable 5qcode.cc
  6. 6Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A contract resolves YES if SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.7 before the specific date indicated in that contract option. It resolves NO if Grok 4.7 is not released by SpaceXAI before that date. Key deadlines for these contract options are August 28, 2026, August 31, 2026, and September 4, 2026, with the market's maximum payout date set for September 3, 2026.

Market Discussion

Public discussion indicates that xAI, not "SpaceXAI," develops the Grok model series, and as of August 24, 2026, Grok 4.7 has no official release, model card, or confirmed API ID [1]. Elon Musk stated on August 12, 2026, that Grok 4.7, reportedly a 2.1-trillion-parameter model undergoing supplemental training with SpaceX engineering data, is expected in 3 to 4 weeks, estimating its release in early September 2026 [1]. Tech industry observers, however, emphasize these timelines are founder-stated targets rather than confirmed product launches, noting that previous release windows have already slipped [1].

Sources (1)
  1. 1Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 24, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality9
Poor
Liquidity
9

5 contracts · worst first

Before Sep 4, 20269
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Before Aug 31, 2026—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Before Aug 28, 2026—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Before Aug 14, 2026—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Before Aug 21, 2026—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

5 contracts · worst first

Before Sep 4, 202674
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Before Aug 31, 2026—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Before Aug 28, 2026—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Before Aug 14, 2026—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Before Aug 21, 2026—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

5 contracts · worst first

Before Sep 4, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Aug 31, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Aug 28, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Aug 14, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Aug 21, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 24, 2026

6. How does Elon Musk's projected '3 to 4 week' release window for Grok 4.7 compare to xAI's historical release cadences for previous models?

Grok 4.7 Projected Release3 to 4 week window from August 12, 2026 [1][2][3]
Release TypeFounder-led target, not a formal roadmap commitment [1][2][3]
Historical CadenceRapid and iterative (e.g., Grok 4.5 in July 2026, Grok 4.6 in August 2026) [4][5][6]
Elon Musk projected a 3-4 week release for Grok 4.7. On August 12, 2026, Musk announced this anticipated release window, clarifying that it represents a founder-led target rather than a formal roadmap commitment. This timeline has already shifted from an earlier projection for late July [1][2][3].
xAI's rapid updates contrast with Musk's often-delayed projections. The company has a history of rapid and iterative model updates, including the release of Grok 4.5 in July 2026 and Grok 4.6 in August 2026 [4][5][6]. However, Musk's public statements regarding major releases frequently precede official availability, often resulting in timeline slips [4][5][6]. The current "3-4 weeks" estimate for Grok 4.7 is therefore being scrutinized by prediction market participants, who are evaluating it against the company's past record of fluctuating timelines [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  2. 2What Is Grok 4.7? The 2.1T xAI Model Explainedkie.ai
  3. 3Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com
  4. 4SpaceXAI Models — 15 Releases & Benchmarksaireleasetracker.com
  5. 5xAI Model Releases: Confirmed Timeline & Sources | BenchLM | BenchLM.aibenchlm.ai
  6. 6https://docs.x.ai/developers/release-notesdocs.x.ai
  7. 7When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  8. 8When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. What technical benchmarks or competitive model releases from OpenAI or Anthropic could compel xAI to launch Grok 4.7 ahead of its early September 2026 estimate?

Dominant models mid-2026Anthropic Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol [1][2][3][4][5]
Primary competitive benchmarksARC-AGI-3, Terminal-Bench 2.1, and SWE-bench Pro [1][2][3][4][5]
Grok 4.7 current statusUndergoing supplemental training on SpaceX engineering data [6][7][8][9]
The mid-2026 AI competitive landscape features key models and benchmarks. In mid-2026, the competitive landscape is primarily shaped by Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol [1][2][3][4][5]. Key performance indicators in this competition include benchmarks such as ARC-AGI-3, Terminal-Bench 2.1, and SWE-bench Pro [1][2][3][4][5]. Anthropic’s Opus 5 is noted for its leadership on ARC-AGI-3 and other benchmarks [1], and reportedly outperforms Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol significantly on benchmarks designed to measure real intelligence [2]. Conversely, OpenAI asserts that GPT-5.6 Sol surpasses Opus 5 on ARC-AGI-3, though this is achieved only when utilizing non-standard API settings [3].
No external competitive pressures currently accelerate Grok 4.7's estimated launch. Despite this intense competitive pressure [1][2][3][4][5], available information does not specify any new technical benchmarks or competitive model releases from OpenAI or Anthropic that would compel an early launch of Grok 4.7. The current estimate for Grok 4.7's release remains early September 2026, with the model presently undergoing supplemental training using SpaceX engineering data [6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1OpenAI launches Claude Mythos rival GPT-5.6 Sol under government access it calls unsustainablethe-decoder.com
  2. 2Anthropic's Opus 5 blows past Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol on the benchmark designed to measure real intelligencethe-decoder.com
  3. 3OpenAI Claims GPT-5.6 Sol Beats Opus 5 on ARC-AGI-3—but Only With Non-Standard API Settings | MLQ Newsmlq.ai
  4. 4The Frontier LLM Landscape in August 2026: Why No… — CASRAIcasrai.org
  5. 5GLM 5.3 vs Opus 5 vs GPT Sol 5.6: Have open source models finally caught up?gingerlabs.ai
  6. 6Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  7. 7xAI Weekly: Grok 4.6 Lands on GitHub Copilot, Grok Bot...bighatgroup.com
  8. 8Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com
  9. 9What Is Grok 4.7? The 2.1T xAI Model Explainedkie.ai

8. Based on public statements, how does the planned 2.1 trillion parameter size and SpaceX data training for Grok 4.7 differ from the architecture of Anthropic's latest Claude model?

Grok 4.7 ParametersApproximately 2.1 trillion (claimed by Elon Musk) [1][2][3][4][5]
Grok 4.7 Training DataSpaceX engineering data [1][3][6]
Claude Opus 5 Context Window1-million-token [7][8][9]
Grok 4.7 distinguishes itself through reported size and specialized SpaceX data training. The model is reported to have approximately 2.1 trillion parameters, a figure attributed to Elon Musk, though this claim remains unconfirmed by other sources [1][2][3][4][5]. A key architectural differentiator for Grok 4.7 is its extensive supplemental training, which incorporates a vast corpus of SpaceX engineering data. This specialized dataset includes telemetry, rocket development logs, and internal technical artifacts, aiming to provide Grok with unique domain expertise in space technology and engineering [1][3][6].
Claude Opus 5 emphasizes adaptive reasoning and a large context window. In contrast to Grok 4.7's engineering-centric approach, Anthropic's latest flagship model, Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, focuses on adaptive reasoning [7][8][9]. This model features a 1-million-token context window, and its development emphasizes safety, detailed document analysis, and high-stakes reasoning capabilities [7][8][9]. The available research does not specify a parameter count for Claude Opus 5, highlighting a different focus in its architectural description compared to Grok 4.7.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  2. 2Grok 4.6 Release Date: 7 August Target, Grok 4.7 Next (August 2026) - AIToolsReviewaitoolsreview.co.uk
  3. 3Grok 4.6 Claims GPT-5.6 Sol Parity at $2/$6 | TEXXRtexxr.com
  4. 4Grok 4.6 gets Aug. 7 launch date, Grok 4.7 follows – Chain Grid Newschaingridnews.com
  5. 5Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com
  6. 6Elon Musk said Grok 4.7, xAI's next model, “will exceed all...instagram.com
  7. 7Grok 4.6 vs Claude Opus 5: Same 61, Two Different Economiesorcarouter.ai
  8. 8Grok 4.6 vs Claude Opus 5: Benchmarks, Coding & Priceampere.sh
  9. 9Grok 4.6 vs Claude Opus 5: Which Model Wins?kingy.ai

9. What potential roadblocks in the supplemental training with proprietary SpaceX data could delay the Grok 4.7 release past September 2026?

Grok 4.7 Release Timeline3 to 4 weeks from August 12, 2026 [1][2][3]
Implied Probability of Release44% before September 4, 2026 (as of August 21, 2026) [4][1]
Latest Timeline Announcement DateAugust 24, 2026 [1][2][3]
ITAR compliance and data curation present significant challenges for Grok 4.7 training. The primary technical and regulatory roadblock for Grok 4.7's supplemental training with proprietary SpaceX data is the necessity to filter out material subject to U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) to ensure compliance with export control laws [5][6][7][8]. This challenge is compounded by a current lack of defined governance, auditing, and review processes required to enforce ITAR compliance [6][1][3]. Additionally, logistical hurdles include the complexity of curating sensitive but non-restricted engineering data while simultaneously preventing the model from memorizing proprietary information [6][1][3].
Grok 4.7's release timeline has experienced slippage and market uncertainty. Elon Musk's most recent announcement on August 24, 2026, indicated a "3 to 4 weeks" timeframe from his August 12, 2026, statement, which pushes the expected release window for Grok 4.7 into early-to-mid September 2026 [1][2][3]. This inherent uncertainty in the timeline was reflected in market-based predictions on platforms like Kalshi, where the implied probability of a release before September 4, 2026, was approximately 44% as of August 21, 2026 [4][1].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  2. 2https://explainx.ai/blog/grok-4-6-4-7-release-timeline-musk-announcement-july-2026explainx.ai
  3. 3Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com
  4. 4When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5SpaceX Engineering Data to Train Grok 2T Model, ITAR Restrictions Become Key Variable | Winzhengwinzheng.com
  6. 6SpaceX Engineering Data Will Supplement Grok Training | Let's Data Scienceletsdatascience.com
  7. 7Elon Musk Says SpaceX Engineering Data Will Train Grok’s Next Modeltech.yahoo.com
  8. 8Elon Musk handed Grok something no other AI company can get their hands onteslarati.com

10. What leading indicators in xAI's API documentation or developer channels have historically preceded major Grok model releases?

Grok 4.7 Documentation StatusNo official documentation as of August 24, 2026 [1][2][3]
Grok 4.7 Model Size2.1T parameters [1][2][3]
Grok 4.6 Launch DateAugust 12, 2026 [1][2]
Official channels typically announce new models concurrent with release. xAI's official API documentation and developer channels generally do not provide advance notice for major model releases. Instead, new flagship models are typically announced, and their details, including release notes, model references, and API overviews, appear on their respective official launch day [4][5][6]. This indicates a consistent approach of making new models publicly available and documenting them at the same time.
Grok 4.7 information primarily emerged from social media. As of August 24, 2026, official documentation or model cards for Grok 4.7 are not yet available. Grok 4.7 is described as a 2.1T parameter model, succeeding Grok 4.6 [1][2][3]. The initial information regarding Grok 4.7's release largely originated from social media platforms, specifically from Elon Musk's posts on X. These posts initially suggested a release timeframe within a few weeks following the launch of Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026 [1][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Will Grok 4.7 be released by the end of September 2026?manifold.markets
  2. 2What Is Grok 4.7? The 2.1T xAI Model Explainedkie.ai
  3. 3Grok 4.6 Release Date: 7 August Target, Grok 4.7 Next (August 2026) - AIToolsReviewaitoolsreview.co.uk
  4. 4https://docs.x.ai/developers/release-notesdocs.x.ai
  5. 5Grok API Documentation | SpaceXAI Docsdocs.x.ai
  6. 6https://docs.x.ai/developers/grok-4-6docs.x.ai

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of August 24, 2026, Grok 4.7 has not been released [1]. Elon Musk provided guidance on August 12, 2026, placing the expected release in "3 to 4 weeks," targeting early-to-mid September 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Grok 4.7 is reportedly a larger model, approximately 2.1 trillion parameters, and is undergoing supplemental training with proprietary SpaceX engineering data [1][5][6]. The successful utilization of this training corpus represents a key technical differentiator and potential catalyst [1][5][6]. The latest publicly acknowledged major version of the AI model is Grok 4.5 [7][8][9].
Prediction markets, including Coinbase and Parity, are actively trading on whether Grok 4.7 will be released by early September 2026, indicating skepticism about Musk's stated timelines [1][10][11]. Bearish sentiment stems from a history of missed or slipped AI release deadlines by xAI and Musk's tendency to adjust schedules publicly [1][3][12]. No evidence or announcement exists regarding a release date for a 'Grok 4.7' version; academic literature (as of 2026) cites 'SpaceXAI' releasing 'Grok 4.5' and 'Grok Build 0.1' [13][7][8][9]. Academic papers frequently use versions like 'Claude Opus 4.7' or 'Grok 4.2' for benchmarking, but no verifiable roadmap exists for a future 'Grok 4.7' release [13][14][15][16].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 21, 2026
  • Closes: September 04, 2026
Sources (16)
  1. 1Grok 4.7 Release Date: 3–4 Weeks, and Already Slippingorcarouter.ai
  2. 2https://explainx.ai/blog/grok-4-6-4-7-release-timeline-musk-announcement-july-2026explainx.ai
  3. 3Grok 4.7 Release Timeline After Grok 4.6 — TheVibeFatherthevibefather.com
  4. 4AI TRENDS | Elon Musk Says Grok 4.7 Will See Significant Improvement and May Launch in 3 to 4 Weekscryptopanic.com
  5. 5Elon Claims SpaceXAI Grok 4.7 Will Surpass All Current Models – NextBigFuture.comnextbigfuture.com
  6. 6Elon Musk teases Grok 4.6 and 4.7, doubling down on xAI's...m.economictimes.com
  7. 7Hypothesis Frontier: Verifier-Guided LLM–Symbolic Search...arxiv.org
  8. 8DataSpace: Benchmarking Data Agents for Verifiable...arxiv.org
  9. 9When Truth Is Distributed: Misinformation Derails Collective Fact Recovery in LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systemsarxiv.org
  10. 10When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  11. 11Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Sep 4, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
  12. 12Elon Musk Promises Grok 4.6 by August 7 and Grok 4.7 Weeks After - Startup Fortunestartupfortune.com
  13. 13AI Security Leaderboard: Methodology, Resultsand...arxiv.org
  14. 14SysAdmin: Measuring Instrumental Power-Seeking in Frontier AIarxiv.org
  15. 15LLM-Based Persuasion Enables Guardrail Override in Frontier LLMsarxiv.org
  16. 16The Rise of Verbal Tics in Large Language Models: A Systematic Analysis Across Frontier Modelsbrowse-export.arxiv.org

13. Related News

-59.0pp
Last updated: August 24, 2026, 12:27 UTC

Musk Timeline Pushes Grok 4.7 Early Release Odds Sharply Lower

A more specific but later release window for xAI’s Grok 4.7 model, provided by CEO Elon Musk, triggered a significant repricing in prediction markets for the model's launch date. In the session for Au...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG15: YES (Aug 12, 2026)
  • KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG13: YES (Aug 12, 2026)
  • KXGROK-GROK46-26AUG11: NO (Aug 11, 2026)
  • KXGROK-GROK47-26AUG21: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
  • KXGROK-GROK47-26AUG14: NO (Aug 14, 2026)