Short Answer

Meta is not expected to release Llama 5 before 2027, with the market pricing this outcome at just 2.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has remained stable within a narrow 1-3% range, showing no significant reaction to external events. The minor price fluctuations, such as the early move from 1.0% to 3.0%, occurred on zero volume and do not coincide with any reported developments. The defining characteristic is the persistent low probability assigned to a Llama 5 release before January 1, 2027.
The consensus pricing across multiple venues reflects this low expectation. Kalshi's market shows a 1% probability, while a similar market on Public.com trades at 2%. A recent $6,000 block order against the release on Kalshi indicates conviction behind the "No" position. Analysis from OddsShopper notes the contract's strict resolution criteria, which require the model to be explicitly named "Llama 5", a factor that may be contributing to the low odds.
  • No Llama 5 release is likely, given Meta's shift to the Muse family.
  • Market consensus and public data show Llama 5 is not a 2026 priority.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 2.0% 1.2% Major AI model releases typically involve extensive development and testing phases.

Current Context

Prediction markets and official channels show low Llama 5 release odds. Kalshi's market KXLLAMA5-27 shows Yes at 1% with $24,000 open interest and a $6,000 NO block order in the last seven days; Public.com's equivalent market shows 2% Yes on $189,172.68 volume [1][2]. Both markets resolve January 1, 2027, with the release required to be public, excluding closed beta but accepting high-cost subscription tiers [1]. OddsShopper's August 16, 2026, board priced Kalshi's Llama 5 contract at 6.5 cents, with a panel blend of 3.4%, noting the contract pays only on a model named Llama 5 [3]. Polymarket's 102 live Llama 5 markets as of May 19, 2026, had consensus below 20% odds on a 2026 ship [4]. Meta's official developer models page leads with the Muse family (Muse Glimmer, Muse Spark 1.2) and lists Llama 4 behind it; Llama 5 is not listed there [5][6][7]. The open-weight Llama line has been quiet since Llama 4 in April 2025 and Llama 4.1 in early 2026 [5][7]. Goldman Sachs and Finterra forecast Llama 5 for 2027, citing stability priorities, EU AI Act compliance overhead, and data-availability concerns [8].
Meta's Muse product line has supplanted Llama, consuming related codenames. The April 2026 Muse Spark launch was framed as a replacement for the Llama line [3]. Coursiv noted in September 2026 that the Muse naming suggests Meta's next frontier model may not carry the Llama name at all, given Muse Spark originated from a new organization, Meta Superintelligence Labs, and launched closed and API-first [9]. Manifold's 'Avocado' LLM market, which tracked Meta's Llama 5 codename, resolved YES for 'Before December 2026' after the Muse Spark launch. The resolver accepted Muse Spark as the model codenamed Avocado, per CNBC reporting [10]. This led to the market's conclusion that the codename was consumed by a closed, non-Llama-branded product [10]. The false 'Llama 5 released April 8, 2026' story was debunked by AIblogly's August 18, 2026, fact check, confirming Muse Spark (proprietary) launched that date instead [11].
Recent Meta AI efforts and investments focus on the Muse family. Muse Ember was released November 10, 2026, featuring multimodality, a 1M-token context, and pricing at $0.10 in and $0.50 out per Mtok, achieving an AA Intelligence Index score of 36 [12]. The Muse app saw 902,000 installs in six days and topped the US App Store free chart in late September 2026 [12]. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to as high as $145 billion [12]. Nvidia ($3 billion) and AMD ($1 billion) took equity in Meta's approximately $95 billion share sale on October 27, 2026 [12]. A Hugging Face researcher noted Meta's Apache-licensed open-weight Muse Glimmer release felt like a repeat for the open ecosystem [13]. While Zuckerberg promised open weights for Spark 1.2 'in the coming weeks' on August 10, 2026, that release had not been published as of late September 2026 [7][13]. Kalshi's track record shows all 16 prior tech-release deadlines that year settled No [3].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Tech Release Odds: Kalshi's Hype Is 0-for-16 | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  4. 4Will Meta Release Llama 5 This Year?next.io
  5. 5Llama 5 Release Date: What Meta Has Actually Announced (Oct 2026) | RAGyfiedragyfied.com
  6. 6Llama 5 Leak: What We Know So Far About the Open Modelorcarouter.ai
  7. 7The Llama Family (Meta), and What Came After | AI Zero to Heroai.noblerworks.com
  8. 8Llama 4 Guide: Scout, Maverick & Behemoth Status (2026)codersera.com
  9. 9Llama 5 Release Date: What We Actually Know | Coursiv Blogcoursiv.io
  10. 10'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  11. 11Fact Check: There Is No Llama 5aiblogly.com
  12. 12Metaaidigest.shelfcritter.com
  13. 13Meta’s Bold Open-Weight Bet is Meant to Muse Developersanalyticsindiamag.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A YES resolution occurs if Meta releases Llama 5 during the calendar year 2026. Conversely, a NO resolution triggers if Meta does not release Llama 5 by December 31, 2026. The market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2027 $0.02 $1.00 2%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets, as of Nov 12, 2026, assign a very low probability (1-2%) to Meta releasing Llama 5 this year, with an analyst estimating fair value at just 1¢ due to perceived overpricing of speculative AI releases [1][2][3][4][5]. Meta has not announced or confirmed Llama 5; instead, it released Muse Spark as a replacement for Llama in April 2026 and open-sourced Muse Glimmer on Aug 10, 2026 [6][7][8]. Despite social media speculation, including a July 2026 report of a frontier model codenamed Watermelon, independent reporting indicates no Llama 5 exists [7][8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
  2. 2Will Meta release Llama 5 this year odds: 1% chance on Kalshipredictdesks.com
  3. 3Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? (Before Jan 1, 2027): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  4. 4Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Is the market overlooking a massive opportunity in space exploration while overvaluing speculative AI releases? | Algopickslinkedin.com
  6. 6Tech Release Odds: Kalshi's Hype Is 0-for-16 | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  7. 7Llama 5 Leak: What We Know So Far About the Open Modelorcarouter.ai
  8. 8Llama 5 Release Date & Rumors - Is It Out Yet? - OutYet.aioutyet.ai
  9. 9Published via Ecencyecency.com
  10. 10Watermelon meme in Meta feeds fuels Llama 5.5… · AGI Huntagihunt.info

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 68 Caution

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid
Trust score68Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

5. How does Meta's 2026 AI release strategy for the 'Muse' family compare to its historical annual cadence with the Llama series?

Meta's new AI family nameMuse family [1][2][3]
Muse Spark launch dateApril 8, 2026 [2][3]
Llama 5 predicted release2027 [2][1]
Meta's 2026 AI release strategy for the 'Muse' family marks a departure from its historical annual cadence for the Llama series. Historically, the Llama series adhered to an annual release pattern, with Llama 4 launched on April 5, 2025 [1][2]. However, in 2026, Meta opted to release its new, closed-source Muse Spark on April 8, followed by Muse Spark 1.1 on July 9, and Muse Code alongside Muse Spark 1.2 on August 5 [2][3]. This transition signifies a shift in Meta's flagship AI line from open-weight Llama models to the closed-source Muse family, developed by Meta Superintelligence Labs [2][3].
Llama 5 has been delayed, with forecasts now indicating a 2027 release. As of November 13, 2026, sources tracking Meta's releases indicate Llama 5, which would have continued the previous annual pattern, has not yet shipped [1][2]. Early 2026 leaks mistakenly identified 'Avocado' as Llama 5, but it was later clarified that 'Avocado' was the codename for Muse Spark, while the model internally referred to as Llama 5, codenamed 'Watermelon', is still in training [2][1]. Signals suggesting a delay include remarks from Meta executives on July 2, 2026, noting that agent progress was not accelerating as anticipated [2][1]. Current forecasts predict Llama 5's release in 2027, suggesting a two-year gap from the previous annual cadence [2][1]. In July 2026, Meta executives offered only a soft commitment regarding future open-source models, without specifically mentioning Llama 5 [2][4]. Furthermore, the Muse family releases do not fulfill market contracts that specify the release of 'Llama 5' [3][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Will Meta Release Llama 5 This Year?next.io
  2. 2Llama 5 Maverick:能力、价格、测试与使用建议|封神榜 Wikifengshenbang.wiki
  3. 3Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date - Manifold Markets Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

6. What evidence from Meta's 2026 earnings calls and developer communications supports the market consensus that 'Llama 5' is not a priority?

Kalshi Llama 5 2026 odds2% (November 12, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Llama 4 SWE-bench actual performance24% vs 41.8% claimed [7][8]
Muse Spark launch dateApril 8, 2026 [8]
Market consensus consistently shows Llama 5 is not a 2026 priority. Prediction markets indicate a very low probability for a Llama 5 release in 2026, with Kalshi trading at 2¢/2% on November 12, 2026, and PredictPedia showing a 0.5% Yes probability between November 10–12, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Similarly, Polymarket indicated consensus below 20% odds for a 2026 shipment as of May 19, 2026, and Manifold priced only 1.9% for a release before January 2027 [9][10][7]. Analysts generally anticipate a Llama 5 release in 2027, with a focus on stability [9][10]. Furthermore, market resolution criteria confirm that a rebranded 'Muse' release or a closed-beta preview would not qualify as a Llama 5 release [2][3][5].
Meta's strategic actions signal a clear pivot from the Llama line. The company launched Muse Spark on April 8, 2026, positioning it as a closed, proprietary frontier model, which CORSEN AI stated effectively froze the Llama line, explicitly noting 'no Llama 5, no Llama 4.5' [8]. Meta's official model site now prominently features the Muse family, with Llama 4 listed as a legacy model and no mention of Llama 5 [11]. The subsequent release of the open-weight Muse Glimmer, combined with statements from Mark Zuckerberg promising larger Muse models and future open-sourcing of Muse Spark 1.2 weights, further suggests a renaming of the open model line to Muse rather than an upcoming Llama 5 [11][10].
Developer ecosystem signals and Llama 4's issues reinforce this shift. Following Meta's closed-source pivot in April 2026, headlines emerged stating 'Meta abandons open-source Llama,' and reports indicated that Meta's internal development had switched to Claude Sonnet for coding tasks [7][8]. Compounding this, Llama 4's credibility was severely compromised in January 2026 after the company admitted its results were 'fudged.' Third-party reproduction efforts subsequently showed approximately 24% performance compared to the official claim of 41.8% [7][8]. This erosion of trust also undermined confidence in any leaked internal benchmarks for other potential models, such as Watermelon [7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  2. 2Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
  4. 4Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? — Before Jan… — Live Oddspredictions.io
  5. 5Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  6. 6Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? | Tech Prediction Market — MarketsPredictionmarketsprediction.com
  7. 7Llama 5 Maverick:能力、价格、测试与使用建议|封神榜 Wikifengshenbang.wiki
  8. 8L'Héritage et la Métamorphose de l'Écosystème Meta AI: Llama (2023-2026) — CORSEN AI Insightscorsen.ai
  9. 9Will Meta Release Llama 5 This Year?next.io
  10. 10Llama 4 Guide: Scout, Maverick & Behemoth Status (2026)codersera.com
  11. 11Llama 5 Leak: What We Know So Far About the Open Modelorcarouter.ai

7. What specific competitive releases from OpenAI or Google in late 2026 could trigger Meta to accelerate a model release branded as 'Llama 5'?

OpenAI GPT Astra 6.1+ release odds62.5% between November 16–22, 2026 [1]
Google Gemini 3.5 Pro release odds6–8% before December 1, 2026 [2]
Meta Llama 5 release odds before Jan 1, 20271–2% [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
OpenAI and Google's late 2026 competitive releases could trigger Meta's Llama 5. The primary competitive triggers are identified as OpenAI's GPT Astra 6.1+ and Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro [1][2]. OpenAI's GPT Astra 6.1+ is seen as the more imminent catalyst, with prediction markets assigning a 62.5% probability for its release between November 16–22, 2026, and anticipating strong debut HLE-Diamond scores [2]. Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro is the second key trigger, with a 6–8% likelihood of release before December 1, 2026, as priced on prediction markets; a robust debut Arena score would serve as Google's clearest competitive spur [2][11].
Despite these triggers, Llama 5's 2026 release likelihood remains very low. Prediction market odds for a Meta Llama 5 release before January 1, 2027, are approximately 1–2% [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Meta's Llama 5 candidate, internally codenamed Watermelon, is reportedly still undergoing training, utilizing significant computational resources, and is claimed to internally match GPT-5.5, though these claims lack independent verification [10]. Several of Meta's strategic decisions, including shipping Muse Spark, freezing Llama 4 Behemoth development, and executive remarks indicating no acceleration in agent progress, collectively suggest a delay for their flagship model. This implies that even a significant competitive launch might not compel a Llama 5-branded release within the roughly seven weeks remaining in 2026, especially since any rushed introduction would likely face intense re-testing scrutiny following prior admissions regarding Llama 4 results [10][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Tech Prediction Markets & Odds - Page 4 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Science and Technology Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Page 2 - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  4. 4Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
  5. 5Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  7. 7Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? (Before Jan 1, 2027): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  8. 8Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? — Before Jan… — Live Oddspredictions.io
  9. 9Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? | Tech Prediction Market — MarketsPredictionmarketsprediction.com
  10. 10Llama 5 Maverick:能力、价格、测试与使用建议|封神榜 Wikifengshenbang.wiki
  11. 11Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  12. 12Will Meta Release Llama 5 This Year?next.io

8. What public data from AI benchmark platforms or code repositories tracks the development of unannounced Meta models in H2 2026?

Llama 5/Watermelon Public BenchmarksNone verified in H2 2026 (as of mid-November 2026) [1]
Leaderboard PresenceNo entries on SWE-bench, LMArena, or OpenHands Index (as of August 10, 2026) [1]
Llama.com Model ListNo Llama 5 entry (as of August 10, 2026) [1]
Unannounced Meta models currently lack public benchmark or repository data. As of mid-November 2026, unannounced Meta models such as Llama 5 or Watermelon do not possess a verified public benchmark or repository footprint for the second half of 2026 [1]. Major open leaderboards, including SWE-bench, LMArena, and the OpenHands Index, do not list any Llama 5 or Watermelon entries as of their August 10, 2026 baseline [1].
Meta's official model lists exclude unreleased versions. Meta's official llama.com model list, for instance, does not contain any Llama 5 entry as of August 10, 2026 [1]. While a performance claim for the in-training 'Watermelon' model was made during a July 6, 2026 town-hall, no specific benchmark was named, and there has been no independent reproduction of this claim. Meta has also declined requests for external evaluation of the 'Watermelon' model's performance [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Llama 5 Maverick:能力、价格、测试与使用建议|封神榜 Wikifengshenbang.wiki

9. How do expert forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Finterra diverge on the branding and timing of Meta's next flagship model after Muse Ember?

Finterra Llama 5 ReleaseApril 8, 2026 [1]
Goldman/JPMorgan Next Model BrandingWatermelon (Muse family) [2][3]
Llama 5 Stability Forecast2027 (due to stability, EU AI Act, and data availability) [4][5]
Expert forecasts offer contrasting views on Meta's next flagship model. Finterra's April 2026 research projected 'Llama 5' was released on April 8, 2026, describing it with over 600 billion parameters and Recursive Self-Improvement capabilities, and discussed 'Llama 5 Enterprise' diversification [1][6]. In contrast, Goldman Sachs's September 2026 analysis framed the next frontier model as 'Watermelon' under the Muse brand, anticipating a 2026 release [1][6][2].
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan agree on a Muse-branded model for 2026. JPMorgan (September 2026) and Goldman Sachs (September 14, 2026) both aligned on 'Watermelon' within the Muse family cadence for Meta's next frontier model. Goldman Sachs cited the September 23 Connect event as a potential catalyst for a new model release, reinforcing the Muse-branding and 2026-timing perspective [2][3][7]. However, both Goldman Sachs and Finterra also suggested Meta may release Llama 5 in 2027, prioritizing stability [4].
Multiple factors contribute to a projected 2027 Llama 5 release. Codersera's October 2026 report specified this 2027 forecast for Llama 5, understood to be codenamed 'Avocado', is based on stability priorities, EU AI Act compliance overhead, and data-availability concerns [5]. Business Insider, in July 2026, clarified that 'Avocado' was actually the internal codename for Muse Spark [8].
Sources (8)
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  2. 2高盛看好Meta股票:Muse上線與訴訟交收後催化劑路徑更清晰hk.finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3JPMorgan upgrades Meta on AI models and agents, sees ’meaningful headroom’finance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Will Meta Release Llama 5 This Year?next.io
  5. 5Llama 4 Guide: Scout, Maverick & Behemoth Status (2026)codersera.com
  6. 6The Era of Superintelligence: A Comprehensive Research Feature on Meta Platforms (META)investor.wedbush.com
  7. 7前沿模型及AI智能体打开上涨空间!小摩翻多Meta(META.US) 目标价直指820美元-财经-金融界finance.jrj.com.cn
  8. 8Llama 5 Maverick:能力、价格、测试与使用建议|封神榜 Wikifengshenbang.wiki

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Kalshi's KXLLAMA5-27 market prices the release of "Llama 5" before 2027 at 1-2% as of mid-November 2026, with resolution requiring a public Meta release of a model named Llama 5 before January 1, 2027 [1][2][3]. Manifold's Llama 5 timing market similarly prices a release before January 2027 at 1% [4]. Meta has not released or announced any model called Llama 5 as of November 13, 2026 [5][6]. The next-generation Llama, internally codenamed 'Avocado', was reported by CNBC in December 2025 as being built outside the Llama line and possibly closed-source [7][8]. Goldman Sachs and Finterra now forecast a 2027 release for this model [9].
Meta's 2026 model cadence has featured releases under the Muse brand, including Muse Spark (April 8), Muse Image (July 7), Muse Spark 1.1 (July 9), Muse Spark 1.2 (August 5), Muse Glimmer 30B Apache 2.0 open weights (August 10), Muse Voice Transcribe (September 1), Muse Spark 1.3 (September 2), Muse Wonder (October 12), Muse Spark Open 816B (October 15), and Muse Ember (November 9, 2026) [10][11][12][5]. None of these carry the 'Llama 5' name required for market resolution [13][14][5][4]. Meta pivoted from open Llama to closed, API-only Muse Spark, with a public API launched July 9, 2026 [15]. Llama 4 Maverick/Scout scored 9.99/8.08 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 (October 2026), placing near the bottom of the open-weights field [7][16][17].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (17)
  1. 1Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? — Before Jan… — Live Oddspredictions.io
  4. 4When will Meta release Llama 5? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  5. 5Llama 5 Release Date: What Meta Has Actually Announced (Oct 2026) | RAGyfiedragyfied.com
  6. 6Llama 5 Release Date: What We Actually Know | Coursiv Blogcoursiv.io
  7. 7Llama 4 Guide: Scout, Maverick & Behemoth Status (2026)codersera.com
  8. 8Why Llama 4 Failed: Benchmarks, Hype & Realitycodersera.com
  9. 9Llama 5 Leak: What We Know So Far About the Open Modelorcarouter.ai
  10. 10Next Meta AI model (Llama, Muse): release date and what's armed · ArtificialWatchartificialwatch.com
  11. 11Meta AI — every tracked LLM release | LLM Worldmayoorrnikam.github.io
  12. 12Meta releases Muse Ember, a new lightweight model for agent execution | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  13. 13Meta to release weights of its most advanced AI model, taking aim at OpenAI and Anthropic – AI Business Journalaibusinessweek.com
  14. 14Techmeme: Mark Zuckerberg says Meta's Watermelon model and Muse Spark open weights are “coming soon” (Mark Zuckerberg/@finkd)techmeme.com
  15. 15Meta's Llama Is Gone. Muse Spark Is the New Betbargo.ai
  16. 16WhatsApp Agents and Automation: What Works in 2026calypso.so
  17. 17Tech Release Odds: Kalshi's Hype Is 0-for-16 | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com