Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that SpaceX will have above 10 launches in May 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has traded in a relatively stable, sideways pattern, with prices consistently indicating a high probability of the outcome. The contract price has fluctuated within a range of 83.0% to 97.0% YES. It opened at 85.0% and, after a brief rally, has returned to that same level. The most significant price movement was a spike to a 92.0% probability around May 5. This increase in perceived probability directly followed reports that three of the nine officially scheduled launches for the month had already been successfully completed within the first week. This rapid, on-schedule start may have led traders to believe that SpaceX's operational tempo could support an additional, unscheduled launch, pushing the monthly total to ten or more.
The subsequent decline from the 92.0% peak back to the 85.0% baseline suggests the market is tempering its short-term optimism and re-anchoring to the official schedule. While the early successes were a positive signal, the price correction indicates that traders still see uncertainty in the schedule for the remaining six missions and view a potential tenth launch as likely, but not guaranteed. Total volume traded is significant, suggesting considerable interest in the market over its lifetime. However, recent volume has been very light, including during the price spike, which may indicate that the peak was the result of low liquidity rather than broad market conviction.
The 85.0% price level appears to be a key area of support and equilibrium for this market, as it served as both the opening price and the point to which the price has recently returned. The consistent trading above 83% throughout the period demonstrates a strong and stable market sentiment. Overall, the chart suggests the market has a high degree of confidence that SpaceX will meet or exceed the launch target implied by the contract, pricing the probability of that outcome at a firm 85.0%.
  • Analysis indicates 11 total SpaceX launches are expected for May 2026.
  • SpaceX's official launch list shows 10 missions dated for May 2026.
  • Adverse weather conditions pose significant risks for May 2026 Falcon 9 launches.
  • SpaceX maintained an average of over 12 launches monthly in Q1 and Q2 2026.
  • Three orbital launches were completed early May, with seven more scheduled.

Current Context

SpaceX has 9 Falcon 9 launches scheduled for May 2026. The official schedule shows these launches planned between May 1 and May 22 from launch complexes SLC-40 and SLC-4E [1]. As of May 5-6, three of these launches have been completed (on May 1, 3, and 5/6) [2][3], leaving six Falcon 9 missions remaining for the period of May 11-22. Among these upcoming missions is the CRS-34 resupply mission to the International Space Station, which is specifically targeted for May 12 or 13 at 7:16 PM EDT from SLC-40 [4][5][6].
Starship Flight 12 is upcoming, adding to high annual launch rates. This flight, marking the debut of Starship V3, is NET May 17 from Starbase [7][8][9][3]. However, this Starship launch may not be counted as an orbital launch for the purpose of the May total [7]. In a broader context, SpaceX had already completed 50 launches for the year by April 26 [10][11][12]. The company projects an annual rate of 140 to 170 Falcon 9 launches for 2026 [10][11].
Prediction markets reflect uncertainty on the final May launch count. The Polymarket market for May launches shows nearly even odds, with 49% predicting 8 or fewer launches and 49% predicting 11 launches [13]. This market is set to resolve at the end of May, based on data from spacex.com [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2Launch Preview: three launches — a calm before the storm? - NASASpaceFlight.comnasaspaceflight.com
  3. 3SpaceX Statsspacexstats.app
  4. 4CRS SpX-34 | Falcon 9 Block 5 | Next Spaceflightnextspaceflight.com
  5. 5Rocket launch schedule coming up in May from Cape Canaveral, Floridafloridatoday.com
  6. 6NASA’s SpaceX 34th Commercial Resupply Mission Overview - NASAnasa.gov
  7. 7SpaceX Launch Rate in 2026 After Reaching Orbital Operations, Booster and Starship Recoverynextbigfuture.com
  8. 8Launches | Next Spaceflightnextspaceflight.com
  9. 9SpaceX Starship Next Launch Targets May 2026 for V3 Debut - New Space Economynewspaceeconomy.ca
  10. 10SpaceX Hits 50 Launches in 2026 as Falcon Heavy Returnskeeptrack.space
  11. 11SpaceX is starting to move on from the world's most successful rocketarstechnica.com
  12. 12SpaceX launches its 50th mission of the year, sends 25 Starlink satellites to orbit (video) | Spacespace.com
  13. 13How many SpaceX launches in May? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 12

📉 May 09, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 41.0% to 28.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point drop for the "Above 12" outcome on May 09, 2026, was a market correction based on the persistent visibility of SpaceX's limited official launch schedule for the month [1][2][3][4]. Despite prediction markets pricing "Above 12" at 77% in early May, the publicly available schedule only indicated 9 Falcon 9 missions [1][2] and one potential Starship Flight 12 [3][4], totaling a maximum of 10 launches [5]. As May progressed and no additional missions beyond these 10 potential launches were announced by May 09, the market re-evaluated the likelihood of achieving 13 or more launches, correcting its earlier over-optimism [1][2][3][4][5]. Social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity or posts from key figures appeared to influence this movement.

📉 May 07, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 55.0% to 39.0%

What happened: The 16.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 12" outcome on May 07, 2026, was primarily driven by a market reassessment of SpaceX's launch cadence. By this date, only two launches had successfully occurred [6][7][8], and the publicly available schedule indicated a total of ten anticipated launches for May, including Falcon 9 and Starship missions [8][9][10][11][1][12][13]. This manifest fell short of the "Above 12" threshold, leading market participants to lower their probability estimates for achieving that outcome. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts or viral narratives were identified around the time of the price movement.

📉 May 06, 2026: 24.0pp drop

Price decreased from 80.0% to 56.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain any social media activity or traditional news announcements on May 06, 2026, that directly caused the 24.0 percentage point price drop. As of May 06, 2026, SpaceX had completed two launches and had five more scheduled for May, totaling seven known launches [6]. The market's reduced confidence in reaching "Above 12" (13 or more) launches likely stemmed from the current confirmed schedule, with no new launches announced by that date to significantly increase the total. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, given the lack of evidence.

Outcome: Above 13

📉 May 08, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 17.0% to 9.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a specific social media post, traditional news announcement, or market structure factor on May 08, 2026, as the primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point price drop. As of May 10, 2026, SpaceX had completed three launches [6][14][7] and listed five more scheduled missions for May [1][12][9]. This publicly known launch schedule, which totals eight missions, is significantly below the "Above 13" outcome, likely contributing to a market adjustment reflecting reduced probability as the month progressed. Without specific timing evidence of influential social media activity or news on May 8th, its role as a primary driver cannot be confirmed.

📉 May 05, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 45.0% to 25.0%

What happened: The available web research does not provide information regarding social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, that could have caused the 20 percentage point drop in the prediction market on May 05, 2026. While SpaceX had three confirmed launches by May 05 and seven additional planned or anticipated launches for May [6][8][7][11][9][10][12][1][13], the provided sources do not include any announcements of cancellations or significant delays that would negatively impact the "Above 13" outcome for May. Therefore, a primary driver for this market movement, especially related to social media, cannot be identified from the given information. Social media was irrelevant to the findings based on the provided data.
Sources (14)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  3. 3SpaceX aims for mid-May Starship Flight 12 launch with revised trajectory - NASASpaceFlight.comnasaspaceflight.com
  4. 4SpaceX Flight 12 Starship Rocket Launchspacelaunchschedule.com
  5. 5How many launches will SpaceX have in May? | Live Odds Comparisonpredictionhunt.com
  6. 6youtube.com
  7. 7cbs8.com
  8. 8spaceflightnow.com
  9. 9visitspacecoast.com
  10. 10nasa.gov
  11. 11rocketlaunch.org
  12. 12spacex.com
  13. 13rocketlaunch.live
  14. 14spaceflightnow.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if SpaceX conducts more than 12 launches in May 2026, and "No" if they perform 12 or fewer. Trading for this market opens on April 30, 2026, and closes on June 1, 2026, with projected payouts also on June 1, 2026. Outcomes are verified by data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and SpaceX; if FAA data is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed per Kalshi Rule 6.3b, and SpaceX employees are prohibited from trading.

Market Discussion

Traders generally anticipate SpaceX will have between 11 and 12 launches in May, with an 88% chance for more than 10 launches but significantly lower probabilities for exceeding 12 or 13. While SpaceX's 2024 target of 144 launches suggests a monthly average of 12, several participants are betting against higher launch counts for May, with one trader indicating that 11 launches is a more realistic or contested threshold. The discussion shows a strong consensus for above 10 launches but skepticism about reaching 12 or more.

5. What are the primary risk factors, including weather and technical issues, that could cause scrubs or delays for scheduled Falcon 9 launches in May 2026?

May 2026 High Temperature28-31°C [1][2][3]
May 2026 Rainy Days9-11 days [1][2][3]
Falcon 9 Grounding DateFebruary 2, 2026 [4][5]
Adverse weather conditions pose significant risks for May 2026 Falcon 9 launches. Florida's weather in May 2026 is expected to bring high temperatures between 28-31°C and 9-11 rainy days, coupled with high humidity, collectively increasing the likelihood of storms [1][2][3]. Historically, while forecasts from the 45th Weather Squadron are often favorable, a 70% chance of unfavorable conditions has previously resulted in scrubs due to factors such as cumulus clouds and electric fields [6][7]. Strict launch commit criteria prohibit lightning within 10 nautical miles or precipitation 30 minutes before launch, further requiring a 30-minute delay after any lightning activity [8][9].
Lingering technical issues and range safety concerns could cause delays. A notable technical issue is an upper stage deorbit failure that occurred on February 2, 2026 [4][5]. This incident led to the grounding of Falcon 9 missions pending review, and if resolutions are not completed by May 2026, it could lead to launch scrubs or delays [4][5]. Additionally, range safety requirements, including vessel and ship exclusion zones, and general technical malfunctions also contribute to potential launch disruptions [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Cape Canaveral, FL Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  2. 2Cape Canaveral weather in May 2026 | Florida, USAweather2travel.com
  3. 3Heat Builds This Weekend Before Storm Chances Increase Early Next Weekwptv.com
  4. 4SpaceX grounds its Falcon 9 rocket after a problem with its upper stage. Will the Crew-12 astronaut mission be affected? | Spacespace.com
  5. 5SpaceX pauses Falcon 9 launches after upper stage anomaly - SpaceNewsspacenews.com
  6. 6SpaceX cancels Falcon Heavy launch due to unfavorable weather conditionsspacexstock.com
  7. 7SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket launch called off due to weatheraccuweather.com
  8. 8Launch commit criteriaen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Types of weather that can delay a SpaceX rocket launchaccuweather.com
  10. 10The Range, Exclusion Zones, Weather Delays and Flight... - Facebookfacebook.com

6. How does SpaceX's projected May 2026 launch cadence compare to its actual monthly launch rates in Q1 and Q2 2026?

Average Monthly Launches Q1 202612.67 launches per month [1][2][3][4]
April 2026 Launches12 launches [1]
Identified May 2026 Missions5-7 missions [5][6][7]
SpaceX demonstrated consistent high launch activity during Q1 and Q2 2026. The company maintained an average of approximately 12.67 launches per month throughout Q1 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This included 12 launches in February 2026 [4][2][1], contributing to a total of at least 38 missions completed by the end of March [8][3]. High launch frequency continued into Q2, with April 2026 also recording 12 launches [1], and the 54th launch of the year occurring on May 3, 2026 [9].
May 2026 launch projections exceed current official mission schedules. Prediction markets project a high launch frequency for May, with a 90% implied probability of "Above 10" launches and a 52% implied probability for "Above 12" launches [10][11]. This contrasts with the 5-7 missions currently identified on official SpaceX and tracking schedules for the month [5][6][7]. These identified missions include several Starlink launches, CRS-34, NROL-172, Globalstar 2-R, and a targeted Starship-Super Heavy Flight 12 [5][6][7][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1lines.com
  2. 2reddit.com
  3. 3spaceflightnow.com
  4. 4kalshi.com
  5. 5spacex.com
  6. 6spaceflightnow.com
  7. 7rocketlaunch.org
  8. 8youtube.com
  9. 9space.com
  10. 10kalshi.com
  11. 11robinhood.com
  12. 12indiatoday.in

7. How do the pre-launch readiness and FAA approval processes for Starship Flight 12 compare to a standard Falcon 9 mission?

Starship Flight 12 TargetFirst two weeks of May 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Falcon 9 Annual Launches ApprovedUp to 120 (from SLC-40 in 2025) [5]
Falcon Family Total Launches648 (as of May 6, 2026) [6]
Starship's pre-launch and FAA approval processes differ significantly from Falcon 9 missions. The Starship program involves extensive mishap investigations, which can extend beyond two months, alongside thorough environmental assessments (EA/EIS) and necessary license modifications whenever flight profiles change. In contrast, standard Falcon 9 missions, particularly those utilizing Block 5 vehicles, typically undergo routine environmental assessments and do not necessitate per-flight mishap reviews [7][8].
Starship missions face significant delays due to extensive FAA review and licensing. Starship Flight 12, aiming for a May 2026 launch with a V3 vehicle and Raptor 3 engines, experienced delays, with uncertainty surrounding the requirement for a new license or merely an amendment. As of May 10, Starship Flight 12 had not yet launched [1][2][3][4]. This stands in stark contrast to Falcon 9 operations, which benefit from a high launch cadence. The FAA approved up to 120 annual Falcon 9 launches from SLC-40 in 2025 [5]. As of May 6, 2026, the Falcon family had completed 648 launches, consistently maintaining a pace of approximately 2-3 launches per week, with numerous Starlink and CRS missions scheduled for May [1][5][9][6][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Starship flight 12 delayed again as SpaceX now targets first two weeks of May – Morning Overviewmorningoverview.com
  2. 2Starship Development Thread May 2026piefed.world
  3. 3SpaceX Starship Next Launch Targets May 2026 for V3 Debut - New Space Economynewspaceeconomy.ca
  4. 4Starship Flight 12 Targets Mid-May with New V3 Vehiclebasenor.com
  5. 5Department of the Air Force, FAA clear SpaceX to launch up to 120 Falcon 9 rockets annually from Cape Canaveral – Spaceflight Nowspaceflightnow.com
  6. 6Space FrontPage - 8 days left! SpaceX is still on track to... | Facebookfacebook.com
  7. 7FAA defends Starship licensing delays - SpaceNewsspacenews.com
  8. 8FAA approves increase in Falcon 9 launches while studying Starship environmental impacts - SpaceNewsspacenews.com
  9. 9List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launchesen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10SpaceX Statsspacexstats.app

8. What is the official manifest of confirmed SpaceX launches for May 2026, and which public data sources provide the most reliable real-time updates?

Starlink 10-38 MissionLaunched May 1, 2026, with booster B1069 completing its 31st flight (SpaceX - Launches, Spectrum Local News, Spaceflight Now) [1][2][3]
Starlink 17-29 (385) MissionLaunched May 6, 2026, from SLC-4E California (Next Spaceflight, YouTube) [4][5]
CRS SpX-34 MissionLaunched May 12, 2026, as a NASA resupply to ISS (Next Spaceflight, Florida Today, NASA) [6][7][8][9]
SpaceX completed three confirmed orbital launches in early May 2026. The Starlink 10-38 mission launched on May 1, 2026, at 2:06 PM ET from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) in Florida, marking the 31st flight for booster B1069 [1][2][3]. A second mission, Starlink 17-29 (385) aboard a Falcon 9 rocket, lifted off around 04:00 UTC on May 6, 2026, from SLC-4E in California [4][5]. Additionally, the CRS SpX-34 Falcon 9 mission, a critical NASA resupply mission to the International Space Station, launched from SLC-40 around 7:16 PM ET on May 12, 2026 [6][7][8][9].
Multiple additional SpaceX missions are scheduled throughout May 2026. These planned launches include missions on May 11 from SLC-4E, May 13 from SLC-40, and May 15 from SLC-4E, with the latter potentially being Starship Flight 12 [1][10]. Further Falcon 9 missions are slated for May 17 from SLC-40, May 19 for Globalstar 2-R from SLC-4E, and May 22 from SLC-40 [1][10]. Overall, at least seven Falcon 9 launches, in addition to other potential Starship or various missions, are anticipated for the month. Prediction markets suggest that the total number of launches for May could exceed 10, underscoring SpaceX's high operational tempo [1].
Sources (10)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2SpaceX launches Starlink mission 10-38spectrumlocalnews.com
  3. 3SpaceX marks May Day, National Space Day with Starlink mission on a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral – Spaceflight Nowspaceflightnow.com
  4. 4Starlink Group 17-29 | Falcon 9 Block 5 | Next Spaceflightnextspaceflight.com
  5. 5SpaceX Starlink 385 launch and Falcon 9 first stage landing, 6 May 2026youtube.com
  6. 6CRS SpX-34 | Falcon 9 Block 5 | Next Spaceflightnextspaceflight.com
  7. 7Rocket launch schedule coming up in May from Cape Canaveral, Floridafloridatoday.com
  8. 8NASA’s SpaceX 34th Commercial Resupply Mission Overview - NASAnasa.gov
  9. 9NASA Sets Coverage for SpaceX 34th Station Resupply Launch, Arrival - NASAnasa.gov
  10. 10Launches | Next Spaceflightnextspaceflight.com

9. Based on recent turnaround times at SLC-40 and SLC-4E, what is the maximum feasible number of Falcon 9 launches SpaceX can support in May 2026?

Scheduled Falcon 9 launches in May 20267 (as of May 10, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Fastest SLC-40 pad turnaround45 hours (1 day, 21 hours) [7]
Maximum potential SLC-40 launches (May 2026)10 [7][1][5][6]
Determining maximum May 2026 Falcon 9 launches is hindered by data limitations. As of May 10, 2026, seven Falcon 9 launches are either scheduled or have already occurred in May, comprising three from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) and four from Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E) [1][2][3][4][5][6]. However, the available information does not provide sufficient data to determine the maximum feasible number of Falcon 9 launches SpaceX can support across both launch pads combined for the entire month of May 2026.
SLC-40 shows potential for ten launches based on record turnaround. The fastest recorded pad turnaround time for SLC-40 was 45 hours (1 day, 21 hours), achieved in January 2026 [7]. Given this record, it would be theoretically possible for an additional seven launches to take place from SLC-40 after the last currently scheduled launch on May 17, 2026 [6]. This scenario would bring the total potential launches from this pad to ten for May 2026 [7][1][5][6].
SLC-4E's scheduled intervals contradict its fastest recorded turnaround time. Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E) holds a fastest recorded pad turnaround time of 5 days, 5 hours, 22 minutes, and 20 seconds, established in January 2024 [8]. Despite this record, the May 2026 schedule lists launch intervals shorter than this fastest recorded turnaround, specifically two days (May 3 [2] to May 5 [3][4]) and four days (NET May 11 [5] to May 15 [6][5]). This inconsistency creates a contradiction regarding feasible turnaround times, making it impossible to determine the maximum feasible number of launches from SLC-4E based solely on the given facts. Consequently, a combined maximum for both pads cannot be ascertained.
Sources (8)
  1. 1youtube.com
  2. 2gadgets360.com
  3. 3cbs8.com
  4. 4spacex.com
  5. 5spaceflightnow.com
  6. 6spacex.com
  7. 7reddit.com
  8. 8wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

According to SpaceX's official upcoming launches list, 10 SpaceX launches, including Falcon 9, Crew, and Starlink entries, are dated in May 2026 on spacex.com. [1]
Polymarket's "How many SpaceX launches in May?" market, which is resolved by spacex.com, uses an ET window from May 1, 2026 12:00AM through May 31, 2026 11:59PM. [2] The current leading outcomes shown for this market are " and the current leading outcomes shown are '≤8' (49%) and '11' (49%). [2]

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 07, 2026
  • Closes: June 01, 2026
Sources (2)
  1. 1SpaceX - Launchesspacex.com
  2. 2How many SpaceX launches in May? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series

Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26APR-18: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26APR-16: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26APR-15: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26APR-14: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXSPACEXCOUNT-26APR-13: NO (May 01, 2026)