Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that eBay's gross merchandise volume in 2026 will be above $84 billion. This consensus stems from eBay's full-year FX-neutral growth guidance for 2026, which, combined with an anticipated foreign exchange tailwind, is expected to lift reported GMV above FX-neutral projections.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for "Above $91 billion" surged +8.6pp (model_led), flipping the edge.
  • Overall, model confidence increased +1.0pp, improving the model's edge by +0.2pp.
  • Model conviction for "Above $89 billion" grew +8.1pp (model_led), flipping that edge.
  • Our model also saw conviction for "Above $87 billion" rise +8.9pp (model_led), compressing the edge.
  • Reported GMV likely exceeds FX-neutral projections, driven by anticipated foreign exchange tailwinds.
  • Depop acquisition and foreign exchange tailwinds may lift reported GMV above $87.5 billion.
  • Possibility of stronger FX tailwinds could increase likelihood for GMV above $89 billion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above $92 billion 6.0% 9.7% Model higher by 3.7pp
Above $91 billion 1.0% 16.4% Model higher by 15.4pp
Above $90.5 billion 10.0% 16.4% Model higher by 6.4pp
Above $84.5 billion 96.0% 96.5% Model higher by 0.5pp
Above $87 billion 73.0% 73.4% Model higher by 0.4pp

Current Context

eBay reported strong first quarter 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and offered 2026 guidance. First quarter 2026 GMV reached $22.2 billion, an 18% increase on an as-reported basis and 14% on an FX-neutral basis [^][^][^][^]. For the full year 2026, eBay projects FX-neutral GMV growth between 7% and 7.5% [^][^]. Second quarter 2026 GMV guidance is set between $21.3 billion and $21.7 billion [^][^].
Market analysts express concerns regarding potential second-half 2026 growth deceleration. These concerns stem from tougher year-over-year comparisons and the normalization of category-specific tailwinds, such as bullion and collectibles [^][^]. eBay is prioritizing strategic initiatives, including C2C commerce expansion and eBay Live, alongside the pending acquisition of Depop, expected to close by the end of 2026 [^][^]. Recent market attention also follows a takeover bid for eBay from GameStop [^].

2. Market Behavior & Drivers

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market's price has been static since inception, holding at a 99.0% probability for a YES resolution. The chart shows a flat line with no price movements, spikes, or drops. There are no support or resistance levels to identify, as the price has not deviated from its initial listing point. The complete absence of trading, with a total volume of zero contracts, suggests this price reflects an opening assessment based on fundamentals rather than a consensus formed through transactions. Market conviction is therefore untested.
The high and unchanging probability is anchored by eBay's strong Q1 2026 results and subsequent full-year guidance. The company reported Q1 GMV of $22.2 billion. A simple annualized run-rate of this figure would yield $88.8 billion, comfortably above the market's $84 billion resolution threshold. Furthermore, eBay's projection for full-year 2026 GMV growth of 7% to 7.5% reinforces the likelihood of a YES outcome.
The chart indicates that market sentiment is one of extreme confidence that eBay's 2026 GMV will exceed $84 billion. The outcome is perceived as a near-certainty, disincentivizing any meaningful trading activity. The price is a reflection of this fundamental outlook, but the lack of volume means it does not represent an actively debated market view.

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if eBay Inc. reports Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) above $88 billion for 2026, as verified by Fiscal.ai. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if the reported GMV is $88 billion or less. The market closes after the outcome occurs, or by March 31, 2028, at 1:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited, specifically for employees of source agencies or individuals with material, non-public information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above $84 billion $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above $84.5 billion $1.00 $0.07 96%
Above $85 billion $0.99 $0.09 94%
Above $85.5 billion $0.97 $0.11 88%
Above $86 billion $0.96 $0.13 86%
Above $86.5 billion $0.86 $0.19 76%
Above $87 billion $0.73 $0.32 73%
Above $87.5 billion $0.54 $0.55 54%
Above $88 billion $0.42 $0.63 42%
Above $88.5 billion $0.31 $0.77 37%
Above $89.5 billion $0.18 $0.90 17%
Above $89 billion $0.22 $0.86 14%
Above $90.5 billion $0.12 $0.94 10%
Above $91.5 billion $0.11 $0.97 8%
Above $90 billion $0.15 $0.90 6%
Above $92 billion $0.07 $1.00 6%
Above $91 billion $0.12 $0.95 1%

Market Discussion

eBay announced a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $22.2 billion for Q1 2026, an 18% increase on an as-reported basis, and raised its full-year 2026 GMV growth outlook to 7%–7.5% [^][^][^][^][^]. The company provided guidance for Q2 2026 GMV between $21.3 billion and $21.7 billion, with market sentiment acknowledging potential for sustainable mid-to-high single-digit GMV growth, bolstered by AI-driven listing tools and the Depop acquisition [^][^].

4. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above $84 billionPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above $84.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $85 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $85.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $86 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $86.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $87 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above $87.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above $88 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above $88.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $89 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $89.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $90 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $90.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above $91 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above $91.5 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above $92 billionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

5. How will the performance of key strategic initiatives, including the Depop acquisition and eBay Live, influence eBay's final 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume?

2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth Target7% to 7.5% [^][^]
Depop Contribution to 2026 GMV GrowthApproximately 1 percentage point [^][^]
Depop Acquisition Close ExpectationEnd of Q3 2026 [^][^]
eBay targets significant 2026 GMV growth despite market challenges. The company is aiming for a full-year 2026 FX-neutral Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth rate between 7% and 7.5% [^][^]. This guidance factors in a commitment to balanced momentum, even considering challenging year-over-year comparisons and an expected moderation of category-specific tailwinds [^][^]. A vital element of this growth strategy is the anticipated Depop acquisition, which is projected to contribute approximately 1 percentage point to the total FX-neutral GMV growth for 2026 [^][^].
Depop acquisition completion and eBay Live boost strategic initiatives. The acquisition of Depop is forecast to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2026, integrating its contribution into the year's overall GMV growth [^][^]. Alongside this, eBay Live has been identified as a key growth contributor within the company's strategic initiatives [^][^][^]. This initiative is managed in conjunction with other significant focus areas, including vehicles and specific product categories [^][^][^].

6. What evidence from Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports supports or refutes analyst concerns about a GMV growth deceleration in the second half of the year?

Q2 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth Guidance8%–10% year-over-year (eBay Q1 2026 earnings call) [^][^]
Q1 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth14% year-over-year (eBay Q1 2026 earnings call) [^][^]
Full-Year 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth Guidance7%–7.5% (eBay Q1 2026 earnings call) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
Analysts project a significant GMV growth deceleration in the latter half of 2026. Concerns, particularly from Jefferies, estimate that eBay's full-year guidance of 7%–7.5% FX-neutral growth implies Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth could drop to as low as 3% in the back half of the year [^][^]. This apprehension is reinforced by eBay's Q2 2026 guidance, which projects $21.3 billion–$21.7 billion in GMV, representing 8%–10% FX-neutral year-over-year growth. This forecast confirms a deceleration from the 14% FX-neutral growth reported in Q1 2026, with management acknowledging an expected easing from the unusually strong Q1 pace [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Management characterizes the growth slowdown as temporary and comparison-driven. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, eBay management refuted a severe structural deceleration thesis, describing the anticipated moderation from Q1 to Q2 2026 as temporary and due to comparison effects [^][^]. They attributed this slowdown to the lapping of one-time tailwinds, specifically citing efficiencies in lower-funnel marketing, the U.S. Klarna partnership, and a normalization in gold and silver bullion demand, all of which had previously boosted results [^][^]. Despite this, management expressed confidence in durable momentum across focus categories, C2C, recommerce, Live, vehicles, and international performance [^][^][^][^][^].
Full-year guidance suggests continued growth, not a severe structural decline. For the remainder of 2026, management indicated that GMV growth should moderate compared to Q1 due to tougher comparisons and the fading of temporary tailwinds, explaining most of the implied deceleration from Q1 to Q2 [^][^][^][^][^]. Their guidance for full-year FX-neutral GMV growth of 7% to 7.5% suggests sustained growth through the back half of the year rather than a material slowdown [^][^][^][^][^]. Overall, the available evidence supports a moderation in GMV growth but does not clearly indicate a structural second-half deterioration [^][^][^][^][^].

7. How does eBay's projected GMV growth in 2026 compare to that of competing marketplaces like Amazon Marketplace and Etsy?

eBay 2026 FX-neutral GMV Growth (ex-Depop)7% to 7.5% [^][^][^]
Depop Contribution to eBay 2026 GMV1 percentage point [^]
Amazon 2026 Global GMV Estimate> $900 billion [^]
eBay officially projects its full-year 2026 gross merchandise volume (GMV) to grow between 7% and 7.5% on an FX-neutral basis, prior to accounting for its pending acquisition [^] [^] [^] . (EBAY) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - April 29, 2026 | Roic AI" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. The acquisition of Depop, slated to close by the end of Q3 2026, is expected to contribute approximately 1 percentage point of additional FX-neutral GMV growth to eBay's 2026 totals [^].
Amazon's projected growth is higher than eBay's, while Etsy lags in quarterly performance. eBay's projected growth trajectory for 2026 is estimated to be outpaced by Amazon, whose total global GMV is expected to exceed $900 billion in 2026, compared to over $830 billion in 2025 [^]. In terms of quarterly performance, Etsy reported a Q1 2026 marketplace gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth of 6% year-over-year [^]. This suggests a slower immediate growth trajectory for Etsy compared to eBay's 14% FX-neutral GMV growth reported for the same quarter [^].

8. What official filings and third-party datasets offer a granular breakdown of eBay's GMV by product category for the first three quarters of 2026?

Q1 2026 Consolidated Marketplace GMV$22,197 million ($22.2 billion) (Q1 2026 10-Q [^][^][^][^])
Q1 2026 FX-neutral GMV$21,448 million (Q1 2026 10-Q [^][^][^][^])
Q1 2026 Take Rate13.91% (Q1 2026 10-Q [^][^][^][^])
eBay’s official filings lack granular GMV breakdown by product category. eBay's official filings do not provide a granular breakdown of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) by product category for the first three quarters of 2026, instead reporting GMV as an aggregated global metric [^][^][^]. For the first quarter of 2026, the consolidated Marketplace GMV was $22,197 million, or $22.2 billion, with an FX-neutral GMV of $21,448 million and a take rate of 13.91% [^][^][^][^].
High-level commentary indicates growth in specific eBay product categories. While company materials offer narrative commentary on category strength, no formal, granular GMV-by-product-category table is available for this period [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The Q1 2026 earnings release noted the strongest growth in Focus Categories, C2C, and recommerce, specifically citing Motors Parts & Accessories, Collectibles, Fashion, and Electronics as descriptive operating themes rather than a published dataset [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. For instance, the full-year 2025 GMV was $79.6 billion, with fashion contributing "well north of $10 billion" in GMV, but this information is annual and thematic only [^][^].
Q2/Q3 2026 GMV is pending, and granular third-party data is unavailable. As of July 14, 2026, consolidated GMV data for the second and third quarters of 2026 is not fully available, with results pending or partially reported [^][^]. The research did not identify any named third-party dataset that publishes a granular eBay GMV-by-product-category breakdown for 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^], and prediction markets typically focus on total annual GMV targets rather than category-specific details [^][^].

9. Based on currency market forecasts for 2026, how might foreign exchange fluctuations cause eBay's final reported GMV to differ from its FX-neutral guidance?

2026 Full Year FX-neutral GMV Growth Guidance7% to 7.5% [^][^]
Q1 2026 FX Tailwind400 basis points (4%) [^][^][^][^]
Q2 2026 FX Tailwind Estimate100 basis points (1%) [^][^]
Foreign exchange fluctuations could significantly impact eBay's 2026 reported GMV. eBay has issued guidance for full year 2026 FX-neutral Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth, projecting it to range from 7% to 7.5% [^][^]. Currency movements may cause final reported GMV to diverge from this guidance, potentially acting as a tailwind where reported GMV exceeds FX-neutral GMV [^][^]. In the first quarter of 2026, foreign exchange rates indeed created a 400 basis point (4%) tailwind from currency movements [^][^][^][^]. During this period, eBay reported a GMV of $22.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth on an as-reported basis, compared to 14% growth on an FX-neutral basis [^][^][^][^].
Future currency impacts remain uncertain, with only partial 2026 guidance available. For the second quarter of 2026, eBay has estimated that foreign exchange rates will likely represent approximately a 100 basis point (1%) tailwind to spot GMV growth [^][^]. This forecast suggests that reported GMV for that quarter would be higher than FX-neutral GMV by this amount [^][^]. However, while eBay has provided guidance for FX-neutral GMV growth for the entire 2026 fiscal year, there is currently no explicit full-year 2026 foreign exchange impact estimate available to quantify the overall difference between the final reported GMV and the full-year FX-neutral guidance [^][^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Upcoming catalysts include the anticipated closing of the $1.2 billion Depop acquisition by the end of Q3 2026 [^] [^] . A reported $125/share unsolicited acquisition bid from GameStop (GME) also presents a potential market driver [^][^].
Bullish catalysts center on strategic initiatives: AI-driven monetization efforts, the scaling of advertising through Promoted Listings, and live commerce initiatives [^] [^] [^] . Is the Stock Finally a Buy? | TIKR.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. These operational expansions aim to drive future growth [^][^][^].
Bearish risks include a stagnant active buyer base, approximately 136 million [^] [^] [^] . Is the Stock Finally a Buy? | TIKR.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Macroeconomic pressure on the U.S. consumer also presents a downside risk [^][^][^]. Furthermore, margin dilution from expanding the 'Authenticity Guarantee' infrastructure could impact profitability [^][^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 31, 2028
  • Closes: March 31, 2028

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Upcoming catalysts include the anticipated closing of the $1.2 billion Depop acquisition by the end of Q3 2026 [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: A reported $125/share unsolicited acquisition bid from GameStop (GME) also presents a potential market driver [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Bullish catalysts center on strategic initiatives: AI-driven monetization efforts, the scaling of advertising through Promoted Listings, and live commerce initiatives [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: These operational expansions aim to drive future growth [^] [^] [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.