eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that eBay's gross merchandise volume in 2026 will be above $84 billion. This consensus stems from eBay's full-year FX-neutral growth guidance for 2026, which, combined with an anticipated foreign exchange tailwind, is expected to lift reported GMV above FX-neutral projections.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price has been static since inception, holding at a 99.0% probability for a YES resolution. The chart shows a flat line with no price movements, spikes, or drops. There are no support or resistance levels to identify, as the price has not deviated from its initial listing point. The complete absence of trading, with a total volume of zero contracts, suggests this price reflects an opening assessment based on fundamentals rather than a consensus formed through transactions. Market conviction is therefore untested.
The high and unchanging probability is anchored by eBay's strong Q1 2026 results and subsequent full-year guidance. The company reported Q1 GMV of $22.2 billion. A simple annualized run-rate of this figure would yield $88.8 billion, comfortably above the market's $84 billion resolution threshold. Furthermore, eBay's projection for full-year 2026 GMV growth of 7% to 7.5% reinforces the likelihood of a YES outcome.
The chart indicates that market sentiment is one of extreme confidence that eBay's 2026 GMV will exceed $84 billion. The outcome is perceived as a near-certainty, disincentivizing any meaningful trading activity. The price is a reflection of this fundamental outlook, but the lack of volume means it does not represent an actively debated market view.
- Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for "Above $91 billion" surged +8.6pp (model_led), flipping the edge.
- Overall, model confidence increased +1.0pp, improving the model's edge by +0.2pp.
- Model conviction for "Above $89 billion" grew +8.1pp (model_led), flipping that edge.
- Our model also saw conviction for "Above $87 billion" rise +8.9pp (model_led), compressing the edge.
- Reported GMV likely exceeds FX-neutral projections, driven by anticipated foreign exchange tailwinds.
- Depop acquisition and foreign exchange tailwinds may lift reported GMV above $87.5 billion.
- Possibility of stronger FX tailwinds could increase likelihood for GMV above $89 billion.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $92 billion | 9.0% | 9.7% | Model higher by 0.7pp |
| Above $91 billion | 12.0% | 16.4% | Model higher by 4.4pp |
| Above $90.5 billion | 10.0% | 16.4% | Model higher by 6.4pp |
| Above $84.5 billion | 89.0% | 96.5% | Model higher by 7.5pp |
| Above $84 billion | 99.0% | 98.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
Current Context
eBay reported strong first quarter 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and offered 2026 guidance. First quarter 2026 GMV reached $22.2 billion, an 18% increase on an as-reported basis and 14% on an FX-neutral basis [1][2][3][4]. For the full year 2026, eBay projects FX-neutral GMV growth between 7% and 7.5% [3][5]. Second quarter 2026 GMV guidance is set between $21.3 billion and $21.7 billion [3][5].
Market analysts express concerns regarding potential second-half 2026 growth deceleration. These concerns stem from tougher year-over-year comparisons and the normalization of category-specific tailwinds, such as bullion and collectibles [5][6]. eBay is prioritizing strategic initiatives, including C2C commerce expansion and eBay Live, alongside the pending acquisition of Depop, expected to close by the end of 2026 [3][6]. Recent market attention also follows a takeover bid for eBay from GameStop [6].
Sources (6)
- 1eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsebayinc.com
- 2eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ebayinc.com
- 3eBay (EBAY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Financial Information - Financial Summary - eBay Inc.investors.ebayinc.com
- 5eBay's strong first half overshadowed by second-half growth concerns | NASDAQ:EBAY, XETRA:EBAproactiveinvestors.com
- 6eBay Beat Q1 2026 Estimates and Got a $125 Takeover Bid. Is the Stock Finally a Buy? | TIKR.comtikr.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if eBay Inc. reports Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) above $88 billion for 2026, as verified by Fiscal.ai. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if the reported GMV is $88 billion or less. The market closes after the outcome occurs, or by March 31, 2028, at 1:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited, specifically for employees of source agencies or individuals with material, non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $84 billion | $0.99 | $0.10 | 99% |
| Above $85 billion | $0.91 | $0.19 | 91% |
| Above $84.5 billion | $0.93 | $0.16 | 89% |
| Above $85.5 billion | $0.88 | $0.22 | 88% |
| Above $86 billion | $0.84 | $0.26 | 84% |
| Above $86.5 billion | $0.80 | $0.26 | 77% |
| Above $87 billion | $0.74 | $0.32 | 74% |
| Above $87.5 billion | $0.60 | $0.50 | 59% |
| Above $88 billion | $0.53 | $0.53 | 45% |
| Above $89 billion | $0.29 | $0.81 | 29% |
| Above $88.5 billion | $0.34 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Above $89.5 billion | $0.26 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Above $90 billion | $0.24 | $0.82 | 14% |
| Above $91.5 billion | $0.12 | $0.97 | 14% |
| Above $91 billion | $0.17 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Above $90.5 billion | $0.20 | $0.85 | 10% |
| Above $92 billion | $0.07 | $0.98 | 9% |
Market Discussion
eBay announced a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $22.2 billion for Q1 2026, an 18% increase on an as-reported basis, and raised its full-year 2026 GMV growth outlook to 7%–7.5% [1][2][3][4][5]. The company provided guidance for Q2 2026 GMV between $21.3 billion and $21.7 billion, with market sentiment acknowledging potential for sustainable mid-to-high single-digit GMV growth, bolstered by AI-driven listing tools and the Depop acquisition [1][6].
Sources (6)
- 1eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsebayinc.com
- 2eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ebayinc.com
- 3eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultssec.gov
- 4eBay Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
- 5eBay sales, GMV exceed expectations in Q1 2026digitalcommerce360.com
- 6eBay Stock in Focus: AI Listings, Depop Deal and Accelerating GMV Reshape the Investment Storykalkine.com
4. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score72Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score41High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
5. How will the performance of key strategic initiatives, including the Depop acquisition and eBay Live, influence eBay's final 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume?
| 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth Target | 7% to 7.5% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Depop Contribution to 2026 GMV Growth | Approximately 1 percentage point [3][4] |
| Depop Acquisition Close Expectation | End of Q3 2026 [3][4] |
eBay targets significant 2026 GMV growth despite market challenges. The company is aiming for a full-year 2026 FX-neutral Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth rate between 7% and 7.5% [1][2]. This guidance factors in a commitment to balanced momentum, even considering challenging year-over-year comparisons and an expected moderation of category-specific tailwinds [1][2]. A vital element of this growth strategy is the anticipated Depop acquisition, which is projected to contribute approximately 1 percentage point to the total FX-neutral GMV growth for 2026 [3][4].
Depop acquisition completion and eBay Live boost strategic initiatives. The acquisition of Depop is forecast to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2026, integrating its contribution into the year's overall GMV growth [3][4]. Alongside this, eBay Live has been identified as a key growth contributor within the company's strategic initiatives [1][2][5]. This initiative is managed in conjunction with other significant focus areas, including vehicles and specific product categories [1][2][5].
Sources (5)
6. What evidence from Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports supports or refutes analyst concerns about a GMV growth deceleration in the second half of the year?
| Q2 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth Guidance | 8%–10% year-over-year (eBay Q1 2026 earnings call) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth | 14% year-over-year (eBay Q1 2026 earnings call) [1][2] |
| Full-Year 2026 FX-Neutral GMV Growth Guidance | 7%–7.5% (eBay Q1 2026 earnings call) [3][4][5][6][7][8][9] |
Analysts project a significant GMV growth deceleration in the latter half of 2026. Concerns, particularly from Jefferies, estimate that eBay's full-year guidance of 7%–7.5% FX-neutral growth implies Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth could drop to as low as 3% in the back half of the year [3][4]. This apprehension is reinforced by eBay's Q2 2026 guidance, which projects $21.3 billion–$21.7 billion in GMV, representing 8%–10% FX-neutral year-over-year growth. This forecast confirms a deceleration from the 14% FX-neutral growth reported in Q1 2026, with management acknowledging an expected easing from the unusually strong Q1 pace [1][2][5][6][7][8][9].
Management characterizes the growth slowdown as temporary and comparison-driven. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, eBay management refuted a severe structural deceleration thesis, describing the anticipated moderation from Q1 to Q2 2026 as temporary and due to comparison effects [2][10]. They attributed this slowdown to the lapping of one-time tailwinds, specifically citing efficiencies in lower-funnel marketing, the U.S. Klarna partnership, and a normalization in gold and silver bullion demand, all of which had previously boosted results [2][10]. Despite this, management expressed confidence in durable momentum across focus categories, C2C, recommerce, Live, vehicles, and international performance [5][6][7][8][9].
Full-year guidance suggests continued growth, not a severe structural decline. For the remainder of 2026, management indicated that GMV growth should moderate compared to Q1 due to tougher comparisons and the fading of temporary tailwinds, explaining most of the implied deceleration from Q1 to Q2 [5][6][7][8][9]. Their guidance for full-year FX-neutral GMV growth of 7% to 7.5% suggests sustained growth through the back half of the year rather than a material slowdown [5][6][7][8][9]. Overall, the available evidence supports a moderation in GMV growth but does not clearly indicate a structural second-half deterioration [5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (10)
- 1eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Results - eBay Inc.investors.ebayinc.com
- 2eBay (EBAY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3eBay's strong first half overshadowed by second-half growth concerns | NASDAQ:EBAY, XETRA:EBAproactiveinvestors.com
- 4eBay's strong first half overshadowed by second-half growth concernsfinance.yahoo.com
- 5EBAY_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6EBAY_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7EBAY_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8EBAY_Q12026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9EBAY_Q12026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 10eBay Beat Q1 2026 Estimates and Got a $125 Takeover Bid. Is the Stock Finally a Buy? | TIKR.comtikr.com
7. How does eBay's projected GMV growth in 2026 compare to that of competing marketplaces like Amazon Marketplace and Etsy?
| eBay 2026 FX-neutral GMV Growth (ex-Depop) | 7% to 7.5% [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Depop Contribution to eBay 2026 GMV | 1 percentage point [2] |
| Amazon 2026 Global GMV Estimate | > $900 billion [4] |
eBay officially projects its full-year 2026 gross merchandise volume (GMV) to grow between 7% and 7.5% on an FX-neutral basis, prior to accounting for its pending acquisition [1][2][3]. The acquisition of Depop, slated to close by the end of Q3 2026, is expected to contribute approximately 1 percentage point of additional FX-neutral GMV growth to eBay's 2026 totals [2].
Amazon's projected growth is higher than eBay's, while Etsy lags in quarterly performance. eBay's projected growth trajectory for 2026 is estimated to be outpaced by Amazon, whose total global GMV is expected to exceed $900 billion in 2026, compared to over $830 billion in 2025 [4]. In terms of quarterly performance, Etsy reported a Q1 2026 marketplace gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth of 6% year-over-year [5]. This suggests a slower immediate growth trajectory for Etsy compared to eBay's 14% FX-neutral GMV growth reported for the same quarter [5].
Sources (5)
- 1eBay (EBAY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 2eBay Inc. (EBAY) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - April 29, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
- 3eBay Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
- 4Amazon FBA Statistics 2026: Revenue, Sellers and Profitabilityaffmaven.com
- 5Etsy, Amazon, eBay, and Shopify in April247wallst.com
8. What official filings and third-party datasets offer a granular breakdown of eBay's GMV by product category for the first three quarters of 2026?
| Q1 2026 Consolidated Marketplace GMV | $22,197 million ($22.2 billion) (Q1 2026 10-Q [1][2][3][4]) |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 FX-neutral GMV | $21,448 million (Q1 2026 10-Q [1][2][3][4]) |
| Q1 2026 Take Rate | 13.91% (Q1 2026 10-Q [1][2][3][4]) |
eBay’s official filings lack granular GMV breakdown by product category. eBay's official filings do not provide a granular breakdown of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) by product category for the first three quarters of 2026, instead reporting GMV as an aggregated global metric [1][2][5]. For the first quarter of 2026, the consolidated Marketplace GMV was $22,197 million, or $22.2 billion, with an FX-neutral GMV of $21,448 million and a take rate of 13.91% [1][2][4][3].
High-level commentary indicates growth in specific eBay product categories. While company materials offer narrative commentary on category strength, no formal, granular GMV-by-product-category table is available for this period [6][4][7][8][9][10][11]. The Q1 2026 earnings release noted the strongest growth in Focus Categories, C2C, and recommerce, specifically citing Motors Parts & Accessories, Collectibles, Fashion, and Electronics as descriptive operating themes rather than a published dataset [4][7][8][9][10][11][3][12][13]. For instance, the full-year 2025 GMV was $79.6 billion, with fashion contributing "well north of $10 billion" in GMV, but this information is annual and thematic only [4][14].
Q2/Q3 2026 GMV is pending, and granular third-party data is unavailable. As of July 14, 2026, consolidated GMV data for the second and third quarters of 2026 is not fully available, with results pending or partially reported [3][15]. The research did not identify any named third-party dataset that publishes a granular eBay GMV-by-product-category breakdown for 2026 [5][4][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][16], and prediction markets typically focus on total annual GMV targets rather than category-specific details [14][16].
Sources (16)
- 1ebay-20260331sec.gov
- 2Ebay Inc (EBAY) 10-Q Quarterly Report April 2026last10k.com
- 3eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ebayinc.com
- 4EBAY_Q12026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5ebay-20251231sec.gov
- 6Q4 2025 eBay Earnings Presentationfortune.com
- 7EBAY_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8EBAY_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9EBAY_Q12026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 10EBAY_Q12026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 11www.newsfilecorp.comOctagon Agentnewsfilecorp.com
- 12SpaceX (SPCX): Is It Really Worth $2 Trillion Dollars?youtube.com
- 13Kaspi Stock ($KSPI): Beating the Market with an E-Commerce Monopoly?youtube.com
- 14Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings 100% Yes · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
- 15eBay Statistics 2026: Updated Data, Growth & Trendsdigiexe.com
- 16Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? Trading Odds & Predictions (Feb. 18, 2026) | Polymarketpolymarket.com
9. Based on currency market forecasts for 2026, how might foreign exchange fluctuations cause eBay's final reported GMV to differ from its FX-neutral guidance?
| 2026 Full Year FX-neutral GMV Growth Guidance | 7% to 7.5% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 FX Tailwind | 400 basis points (4%) [3][4][5][6] |
| Q2 2026 FX Tailwind Estimate | 100 basis points (1%) [1][2] |
Foreign exchange fluctuations could significantly impact eBay's 2026 reported GMV. eBay has issued guidance for full year 2026 FX-neutral Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth, projecting it to range from 7% to 7.5% [1][2]. Currency movements may cause final reported GMV to diverge from this guidance, potentially acting as a tailwind where reported GMV exceeds FX-neutral GMV [1][2]. In the first quarter of 2026, foreign exchange rates indeed created a 400 basis point (4%) tailwind from currency movements [3][4][5][6]. During this period, eBay reported a GMV of $22.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth on an as-reported basis, compared to 14% growth on an FX-neutral basis [3][4][5][6].
Future currency impacts remain uncertain, with only partial 2026 guidance available. For the second quarter of 2026, eBay has estimated that foreign exchange rates will likely represent approximately a 100 basis point (1%) tailwind to spot GMV growth [1][2]. This forecast suggests that reported GMV for that quarter would be higher than FX-neutral GMV by this amount [1][2]. However, while eBay has provided guidance for FX-neutral GMV growth for the entire 2026 fiscal year, there is currently no explicit full-year 2026 foreign exchange impact estimate available to quantify the overall difference between the final reported GMV and the full-year FX-neutral guidance [1][2].
Sources (6)
- 1eBay (EBAY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2eBay (EBAY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.ebayinc.com
- 4eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsfortune.com
- 5eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultssec.gov
- 6eBay Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsebayinc.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2028
- Closes: March 31, 2028
Sources (4)
- 1eBay (EBAY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2The Recommerce Engine: Why eBay is a Structural Buy in 2026armrinvesting.substack.com
- 3eBay Beat Q1 2026 Estimates and Got a $125 Takeover Bid. Is the Stock Finally a Buy? | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 4The One Metric That Complicates eBay's Rally | Trefistrefis.com
