Urban Outfitters total stores in Q1
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Exceeding 836 stores is likely, supported by 35 net planned openings.
- Capital and supply chain investments enable continued physical store expansion.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 832 | 84.0% | 88.9% | Model higher by 4.9pp |
| Above 836 | 65.0% | 62.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
| Above 834 | 71.0% | 74.9% | Model higher by 3.9pp |
| Above 848 | 5.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 5.0pp |
| Above 844 | 13.0% | 0.1% | Market higher by 12.9pp |
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1EX-99.1sec.gov
- 2URBN Reports Record Q1 Sales and Income | Urban Outfitters...investor.urbn.com
- 3URBN Reports Record Q1 Sales and Incomeglobenewswire.com
- 4FY'27 Q1 RESULTSinvestor.urbn.com
- 5URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC.sec.gov
- 610-Ksec.gov
- 7URBN Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 8URBAN OUTFITTERS INC quarterly report, Q1 FY2026 (NASDAQ:URBN) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 31, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 85.0%
Outcome: Above 832
Sources (7)
- 1EX-99.1sec.gov
- 2Urban Outfitters posts record Q1 2026 results | URBN 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 3Urban Outfitters Q2 profit jumps to $241M | URBN 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 4URBN Reports Record Q2 Sales and Profitsstocktitan.net
- 5URBN Reports Record Q2 Sales and Profits | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 6EX-99.1sec.gov
- 7Urban Outfitters Q2 FY'27 slides: record sales, Nuuly...uk.investing.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the total number of Urban Outfitters stores reported for Q1. A "YES" resolution occurs if Urban Outfitters reports more than 838 total stores, while a "NO" resolution occurs if the reported number is 838 or fewer. The market closes on May 19, 4:00 PM EDT, with the maximum payout date set for September 23, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 832 | $0.92 | $0.18 | 84% |
| Above 834 | $0.76 | $0.32 | 71% |
| Above 836 | $0.68 | $0.42 | 65% |
| Above 844 | $0.15 | $0.94 | 13% |
| Above 848 | $0.07 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Above 838 | $0.47 | $0.63 | 0% |
| Above 840 | $0.32 | $0.78 | 0% |
| Above 842 | $0.21 | $0.89 | 0% |
| Above 846 | $0.10 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above 850 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Urban Outfitters, Inc. operated 801 total stores globally, comprising 792 company-owned and 9 franchisee-owned locations, as of April 30, 2026, which marked the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 [1]. This total included 256 Anthropologie stores, 276 Free People Group stores, 252 Urban Outfitters brand stores, and 8 Menus & Venues locations [1][2][3][4]. Discussion on social media and prediction markets has primarily centered on non-store KPIs, such as a potential ~$100 million IEEPA tariff refund, quarterly GAAP earnings per share expectations, and comparable sales growth, rather than store count specifically [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1EX-99.1sec.gov
- 2URBN Reports Record Q1 Sales and Incomeglobenewswire.com
- 3URBN Reports Record Q1 Sales and Income | Urban Outfitters...investor.urbn.com
- 4Urban Outfitters posts record Q1 2026 results | URBN 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 5Urban Outfitters Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Will $100M Tariff Refund Steal the Show?daytraders.com
- 6Urban Outfitters Q2 Results: Tariff refund, comp sales growth in focusscanx.trade
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What recent changes in URBN's supply chain logistics could either support or hinder a rapid store expansion through fiscal year 2028?
| FY2027 Logistics CapEx Allocation | Approximately 50% of $475 million [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] |
|---|---|
| FY2027 Store Expansion Plan | 54 new store openings, 19 store closings [10][1][3] |
| Nuuly Kansas City Fulfillment | 1,000,000 sq ft to support up to 600,000 subscribers [3][4][5][6][7][8][9] |
Sources (10)
- 1Urban Outfitters (URBN) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 2Urban Outfitters, Inc. Q2 2027 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
- 3URBN Q2 FY2027 earnings call - BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
- 4URBN_Q22027, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5URBN_Q22027, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6URBN_Q22027, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7URBN_Q22027, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8URBN_Q22027, Page: 9Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 10Fourth Quarter, FY’26 Conference Call February 25, 2026investor.urbn.com
7. What does URBN's historical accuracy in forecasting annual store openings and closures indicate about the reliability of their fiscal 2028 expansion targets?
| Historical forecast accuracy data | Not available for store openings/closures [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| URBN's guidance disclaimer | Labeled as "current views" rather than "formal forecasts" [7][8][9] |
| FY27 projected store changes | 57 openings, 14 closings for URBN stores (latest 10-K) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
Sources (12)
- 1URBN_Q12026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 2URBN_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 3URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 27Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 28Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 33Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 55Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7Earnings call transcript: Urban Outfitters posts record Q2...investing.com
- 8URBN Q1-2027 Earnings Callalphaspread.com
- 9URBN Q2 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
- 1010-Ksec.gov
- 11https://investor.urbn.com/static-files/de6bf07e-8a99-4ca1-830d-f1d0356edd49investor.urbn.com
- 12FY’26 Q4 RESULTSurbanoutfittersinc.gcs-web.com
8. How does URBN's planned net store growth for fiscal year 2028 compare with the physical retail strategies of key competitors like Aritzia and Zara?
| URBN FY27 Planned New Stores | Approximately 54 (7][1][2][3]) |
|---|---|
| URBN FY27 Planned Store Closures | Approximately 19 (7][1][2][3]) |
| Aritzia US Long-term Potential | 180-200+ boutiques (11][4][5]) |
Sources (18)
- 1Page URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. Second Quarter, FY'27...investor.urbn.com
- 2FY’26 Q4 RESULTSurbanoutfittersinc.gcs-web.com
- 3https://investor.urbn.com/static-files/de6bf07e-8a99-4ca1-830d-f1d0356edd49investor.urbn.com
- 4Aritzia Eyes U.S. Expansion, Sees Potential for 200 Storeswwd.com
- 5Aritzia Reports Strong Q1, Sees Momentum Continuingwwd.com
- 6URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 27Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 28Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 33Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 25Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 10URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 21Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 11URBAN OUTFITTERS INC (10-K) - 2026-FY, Page: 55Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 12Urban Outfitters beats Q1 2027 forecasts, stock risesinvesting.com
- 13Fiscal 2026 Annual Reportnewsfile.futunn.com
- 14INDITEX | FY2025 Resultsinditex.com
- 15Inditex's 2026 retail strategy: From US store openings, to the expansion of Lefties - FashionNetwork United Kingdomuk.fashionnetwork.com
- 16Inditex accelerates profitability through store optimisation and selected market expansion, says GlobalDataretailtimes.co.uk
- 17Zara parent Inditex continues store-led growth - Inside Retail Asiainsideretail.asia
- 18Inditex and Zara: how their store format is changing to sell moremerca20.com
9. What alternative datasets, like real estate leasing data or construction permits, can signal the pace of URBN's store openings ahead of the Q1 2028 report?
| URBN Leasing Data | Not included in provided evidence from the last six months [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| URBN Construction Permits | Not included in provided evidence from the last six months [1][2][3] |
| URBN Occupancy Permits | Not included in provided evidence from the last six months [1][2][3] |
10. How might macroeconomic trends in 2027, specifically commercial real estate costs and consumer spending, affect URBN's store expansion plans for fiscal year 2028?
| Capex for retail expansion | 35%-40% of annual capital expenditures (as of FY2027) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Predicted URBN stores Q1 2028 | Above 836 [5] |
| Retail vacancies | Historically low [6][7][8][9] |
Sources (9)
- 1Page URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. Second Quarter, FY'27...investor.urbn.com
- 2URBN Q2 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
- 3URBN Q4-2026 Earnings Call - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
- 4URBN Q1 Deep Dive: Free People and Subscription Momentum Drive Growth Amid Tariff Uncertaintyinvestor.wedbush.com
- 5Urban Outfitters total stores in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2028kalshi.com
- 6A New Dawn in Real Estate:investments.metlife.com
- 72026 Commercial Real Estate Outlookjpmorgan.com
- 82026 Macroeconomic and CRE Review and Outlooknylim.com
- 9Fortune Will Favor the Bold | CBREcbre.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 23, 2027
- Closes: September 23, 2027
Sources (10)
- 1EX-99.1sec.gov
- 2URBN Reports Record Q1 Sales and Income | Urban Outfitters...investor.urbn.com
- 3Urban Outfitters posts record Q1 2026 results | URBN 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 4FY'27 Q1 RESULTSinvestor.urbn.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7www.investors.comOctagon Agentinvestors.com
- 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 9www.benzinga.comOctagon Agentbenzinga.com
- 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 12 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXURBN-26NOVCOMP-9: NO (Aug 27, 2026)
- KXURBN-26NOVCOMP-7: NO (Aug 27, 2026)
- KXURBN-26NOVCOMP-5: YES (Aug 27, 2026)
- KXURBN-26NOVCOMP-3: YES (Aug 27, 2026)
- KXURBN-26NOVCOMP-11: NO (Aug 27, 2026)