Short Answer

Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production is likely to exceed 190,000 ounces, supported by an analyst median estimate of 203,023 ounces (81.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's high probability level is anchored by Coeur Mining's record gold production in the prior quarter. The company reported producing 163,490 ounces of gold in Q2 2026, setting a strong precedent for Q3 and causing the market to price in a high likelihood of success from its inception. The market has since traded sideways in a tight 80-85% range, reflecting this baseline expectation.
The key driver for resolution, Coeur's Q3 results, is still pending, with the company having scheduled its earnings release for November 4. There are no specific news items in the provided context to explain the minor fluctuations between 80% and 85%. The low total trading volume of 230 contracts indicates that traders are largely waiting for the official data release before taking positions with conviction.
  • Since last update (~12h): Above 180000 model probability surged +69.3pp, narrowing the edge as market remained flat.
  • Market probability for "Above 190000" rocketed +81.0pp, compressing the model-led edge.
  • Overall model-market edge compressed by -25.2pp, as confidence improved (+1.0pp).
  • Model probabilities for "Above 230000" (-8.4pp) and "Above 220000" (-7.1pp) decreased, widening their edges.
  • Production above 190,000 ounces appears likely, supported by the 203,023-ounce analyst median.
  • Output above 200,000 ounces is probable, aligning with the 203,023-ounce analyst estimate.
  • Production above 220,000 ounces appears improbable, given management's Q3 outlook below the H2 average.

Current Context

Coeur Mining Q3 2026 results are pending, following record Q2. Coeur Mining has not yet released its third quarter 2026 production or financial results as of October 24, 2026 [1]. The company scheduled its release for after market close on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with an earnings call set for Thursday, November 5, at 11:00 a.m. ET [1][2]. In Q2 2026, Coeur reported record gold production of 163,490 ounces, with gold sales at 167,877 ounces and revenue at $1.086 billion [3][4]. GAAP net income reached $121.9 million ($0.12/share), adjusted EBITDA was $478.3 million, operating cash flow was $513.2 million, and free cash flow stood at $387.5 million, with cash reserves of $1.052 billion [3][4]. Following Q2, the company's 2026 guidance projected approximately 690,000 ounces of gold, 20 million ounces of silver, and 45 million pounds of copper, targeting full-year adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion [3][5]. Management indicated expectations for stronger second-half production, with Q4 anticipated to surpass Q3 [3][5].
Operational headwinds affect Q3 production implications; third-party estimates vary. The operating context for Coeur is mixed. While legacy operations remained on track, ramp-ups at New Afton’s C-Zone and Rainy River’s underground were slower than initially assumed [3][5]. These delays led to partial-year guidance adjustments and introduced execution risk for Q3 and Q4 [3][5]. Company guidance implies Q3 gold production should materially exceed Q1’s 96,503 ounces but remain below Q2’s record 163,490 ounces, consistent with a stronger Q4 [3][5]. Coeur had not published a precise Q3 ounce target by October 24 [3][5]. Third-party material references roughly 630,000 ounces of revised annual production in a September discussion, but that figure is not corroborated by the company’s Q2 release and should be treated cautiously [3][5][6]. Third-party financial estimates for Q3 revenue and EPS vary: MarketBeat cites $1.24 billion revenue and $0.1695 EPS [7], FXEmpire reports $1.32 billion revenue and $0.31 EPS from five analysts [8], and Finanzen.at lists averages of $1.24 billion revenue and $0.193 EPS from its analyst samples [9]. These are analyst estimates, not company guidance [7][8][9]. A prediction market for Q3 gold production approximately priced a 98% probability above 180,000 ounces, 81% above 190,000, 46% above 200,000, and 33% above 210,000, with resolution expected around the November 4 earnings release; these odds are a snapshot [10].
Key Q3 metrics include production, costs, and project progress. Key performance indicators for Q3 include gold ounces produced and sold, realized gold price, and adjusted cash cost per gold ounce [3]. Other metrics to monitor are revenue mix, adjusted EBITDA, operating and free cash flow, capital expenditures, cash and debt levels, and progress at New Afton and Rainy River [3][4]. In Q2, the realized gold price was $4,140/oz and the adjusted cash cost was $2,442/oz [3][4]. Recent corporate developments include the integration of New Gold assets and the first full quarter contribution from New Afton and Rainy River in Q2 [3]. Coeur also initiated an enhanced capital-return program, executing $121 million in buybacks through July 31 and declaring a $0.02 semiannual dividend [1][3]. An updated corporate presentation was filed on September 28 [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Coeur Mining Sets Nov. 5 Q3 2026 Earnings Call - CDEstocktitan.net
  2. 2Coeur Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Callfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  4. 4cde-20260630sec.gov
  5. 5Coeur Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  6. 6Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
  7. 7Coeur Mining Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
  8. 8Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  9. 9Erste Schätzungen: Coeur Mining veröffentlicht Zahlen zum vergangenen Quartal | 20.10.26 | finanzen.atfinanzen.at
  10. 10Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  11. 11Coeur Mining, Inc. Form 8-K filed September 28, 2026sec.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 October 13, 2026: 45.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 15.0%

Outcome: Above 200000

What happened: The primary driver of the 45.0 percentage point drop was likely a re-evaluation of Coeur Mining's Q3 gold production prospects following a 2.5%–3.3% decline in its share price on October 13, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This stock decline was attributed to broad precious-metals-miner weakness, portfolio positioning, or profit-taking, with no specific company news or analyst action identified to explain the move [1][2][3]. Prediction market participants appear to have interpreted this general negative sentiment as increasing the risk that the company would not achieve production "Above 200000" ounces, particularly given prior guidance indicating Q3 as a period of peak capital expenditure [5]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no related posts or viral narratives were found.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Coeur Mining slides as sector weakness appears to outweigh any fresh company-specific catalyst | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  2. 2Why Did Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) Fall 2.5% as Gold Held Up?kalkine.ca
  3. 3Why Did Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) Fall 3.14% on 50M Shares?kalkine.com
  4. 4Coeur Mining falls 2.89% in Tuesday's sessionglobalbankingandfinance.com
  5. 5Coeur Mining, Inc. — Investor Presentation 2026financialfilings.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if Coeur Mining's gold production in Q3 exceeds 200,000 ounces, and "No" if it is 200,000 ounces or less. The market ends on November 4, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 4, 2027. No specific settlement conditions or data sources are detailed in the provided content.

Market Discussion

Coeur Mining has not yet announced its Q3 2026 results [1][2], though the prediction market implies Q3 gold production may be around 190,000-200,000 ounces [3], notably higher than Q2's 163,490 ounces [1][2]. While management's post-Q2 outlook indicated a stronger second half [1][2], social media commentary expresses caution regarding slower-than-expected ramp-ups at Canadian operations and potential execution risks [4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4$CDE · Coeur Mining, Inc. — TickerTalkstickertalks.ai
  5. 5Coeur Mining's $7 billion gold megadeal is already missing its own targets - Startup Fortunestartupfortune.com

5. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Nov 4, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 62 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score68Caution
Trade quality20% of score39High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score62Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 230,000” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
49Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

5 contracts · worst first · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 23000026
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 20000043
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 21000050
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 19000051
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 180000—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
78Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

5 contracts · worst first · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 21000075
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Above 20000076
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Above 19000079
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Above 180000—
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Above 230000—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 180000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 190000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 200000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 210000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 230000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
39High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 49 (notional-weighted across 4 scored legs)

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~6% of a 80c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 180000–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 19000051Market scoreLiquidity51Move quality79Rule clarity100
Why 51
Liquidity
51 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
79 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 20000043Market scoreLiquidity43Move quality76Rule clarity100
Why 43
Liquidity
43 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
76 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 21000050Market scoreLiquidity50Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why 50
Liquidity
50 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 23000026Market scoreLiquidity26Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 26
Liquidity
26 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 4, 2026

6. What are the consensus analyst estimates for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production, and how have they been revised since the Q2 earnings release?

Q2 2026 Gold Production163,490 ounces [1]
Full-Year 2026 Gold Guidance (Revised Midpoint)690,000 ounces [2]
Prediction Market Median Q3 2026 Gold Production203,023 ounces [3]
No specific sell-side analyst consensus exists for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production. Publicly available analyst estimates generally focus on financial metrics rather than specific quarterly physical gold ounces [1]. At its Q2 2026 earnings release, Coeur Mining reported record Q2 gold production of 163,490 ounces and provided full-year 2026 gold production guidance of approximately 690,000 ounces, based on the midpoints of its updated ranges [1]. The company did not offer a specific Q3 ounce target [1][4].
Coeur Mining revised its full-year 2026 gold production guidance downward after the Q2 release. The material revision was to full-year guidance and mine ramp timing, primarily reflecting slower than anticipated ramp-ups at its Canadian mines [1][4][2]. The full-year 2026 gold guidance midpoint was reduced by approximately 8%, from 747,500 ounces to 690,000 ounces [2]. Management's operational adjustments included New Afton's targeted throughput moving to early Q4 rather than the end of Q2, and Rainy River's underground rates rising slower than initially planned [1][4]. Despite these revisions, management still anticipated stronger second-half production, with Q4 production expected to exceed Q3 [1][4].
Prediction markets indicate significantly higher Q3 gold production estimates compared to documented analyst evidence. One aggregator reported a median prediction of 203,023 ounces for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production, with a middle-half range spanning 194,478 to 215,263 ounces [3]. A separate prediction market indicated an 81% probability of production surpassing 190,000 ounces, a 46% probability above 200,000 ounces, and a 33% probability above 210,000 ounces [5]. It is important to note that these figures are market-implied outcomes and do not represent sell-side analyst consensus [5][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2How Big Could Coeur Mining Stock's Next Fall Be?finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4Coeur Mining (CDE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  5. 5Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com

7. How might significant gold price volatility or input cost inflation during Q3 2026 have influenced Coeur's production strategy and final output?

Q2 Gold Production163,490 ounces (Q2 2026) [1]
Q2 Average Realized Gold Price$4,140/oz (Q2 2026) [1]
Q3 Gold Production Scenario Range190,000–205,000 ounces (Q3 2026) [1]
Coeur adopted a lower-risk strategy amidst gold price volatility. During Q3 2026, significant gold price volatility or input cost inflation would have prompted Coeur to prioritize reliable production and strict control over discretionary spending. While high gold prices generally support increased production, the prevailing volatility or inflation compressed margins, making output more reliant on efficient execution and mine sequencing to maintain profitability [1]. This strategic approach aimed to safeguard cash flow and prevent premature ramp-ups at key operations [1].
Operational challenges primarily limited Coeur's production, not price adjustments. The primary limitation stemmed from these operational issues, rather than a deliberate reduction due to prices, with the C-Zone ramp at New Afton being pushed to early Q4 2026. Simultaneously, Rainy River underground rates were expected to increase [1]. Cost inflation, particularly for diesel, likely encouraged a careful sequencing strategy, focusing on higher-margin tonnes and deferring aggressive throughput until essential equipment, infrastructure, and cave propagation were fully ready [1].
Coeur anticipated higher Q3 production despite lower Q2 gold prices. The company had achieved a record Q2 gold production of 163,490 ounces, though the average realized gold price for Q2 had declined to $4,140/oz. Management's planning assumptions were set around $4,000/oz gold [1]. Coeur's Q2 update indicated a second-half-weighted production profile, with Q4 anticipated to surpass Q3. A reasonable scenario estimated Q3 output to be approximately 190,000–205,000 ounces [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com

8. How do Coeur Mining's H2 2026 growth projections compare to those of peer gold producers like New Gold and Kinross Gold?

Coeur Mining Revised 2026 Gold Guidance630,000–750,000 ounces (midpoint 690,000) [1][2]
Kinross Gold Lowered 2026-2027 ProductionApproximately 1.84–1.86 million gold-equivalent ounces per year [3]
Coeur Mining Q3 2026 Gold Production ExpectationMedian of 203,023 ounces [4][5]
Coeur Mining projects significant H2 2026 growth driven by new assets, though execution risks persist. The company's growth story is marked by visible near-term percentage-growth, anticipated from nine months of contributions from the newly acquired New Afton and Rainy River assets [1][2][6][7][8][9]. This growth thesis, however, is contingent on successful execution, particularly following a recent guidance adjustment [1][2][6][7][8][9]. Coeur Mining produced 163,490 ounces in Q2 2026, marking a 51% year-over-year increase and a 69% sequential rise [1][9]. Subsequently, the full-year 2026 gold guidance was revised to 630,000–750,000 ounces, down from an earlier projection, primarily attributed to slower ramp-ups at the acquired Canadian operations [1][2]. Despite this revision, management still expects a production profile heavily weighted towards H2 2026, with most ramp-up risks concentrated in these new assets [1]. As of late October 2026, market data indicates an 81% probability that Coeur's Q3 gold production will surpass 190,000 ounces, with a median expectation of 203,023 ounces for the quarter [4][5].
Kinross Gold maintains a stable outlook with a modest recent downgrade, lacking a comparable H2 acceleration. As a larger producer, Kinross Gold has presented a stable multi-year outlook, which recently underwent a slight reduction, and does not feature a similar H2 production acceleration narrative [10][11][3]. Its initial 2026 outlook approximated 2.0 million attributable gold-equivalent ounces, forecast to remain consistent through 2027 and 2028, with Q1 materials describing this outlook as stable rather than growth-oriented [10][11]. The company later adjusted its expected attributable production for both 2026 and 2027 to approximately 1.84–1.86 million gold-equivalent ounces per year, representing a 2%–3% decrease below the lower end of its previous guidance [3]. Kinross anticipated producing around 425,000 gold-equivalent ounces in Q3 2026 [3].
A direct H2 2026 growth comparison for New Gold is unavailable from the provided sources. This is because its relevant assets, New Afton and Rainy River, are now incorporated within Coeur Mining's consolidated guidance [1][2][6][7][8][9].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  3. 3Kinross provides operational and return of capital updatestocktitan.net
  4. 4Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  6. 6MINERAL RESERVES AND MINERAL RESOURCESnewafton.newgold.com
  7. 7New Gold Inc. is a Canadian-focused intermediate gold mining company committedOVERVIEWsustainability.newgold.com
  8. 8About - Rainy River Minerainyriver.newgold.com
  9. 9Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Resultscoeur.com
  10. 10Delivering Value.s204.q4cdn.com
  11. 11Delivering Value.s204.q4cdn.com

9. What does Coeur Mining's full-year 2026 guidance imply for Q3 production, given H1 results and management's commentary that Q4 will be stronger?

Full-Year 2026 Gold Production Guidance690,000 ounces [1]
H1 2026 Gold Production259,993 ounces [1]
Implied Q3 2026 Gold Production (Central Estimate)207,000 ounces [1]
Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold output is projected below H2 average. Based on the company's full-year guidance, H1 results, and management commentary, Q3 gold production is estimated to be approximately 207,000 ounces. The implied range for Q3 production is between 200,000 and 215,000 ounces [1].
H2 production requires significant ounces to meet full-year target. Coeur Mining reported 259,993 ounces of gold production in the first half of 2026, which included a record 163,490 ounces in Q2. To achieve the full-year target of approximately 690,000 ounces, 430,007 ounces are required in H2, averaging 215,004 ounces per quarter [1]. Management has indicated that H2 production will be stronger, with Q4 specifically expected to surpass Q3. This commentary implies that Q3 production will fall below the 215,004-ounce H2 quarterly average [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com

10. What operational updates from the New Afton C-Zone and Rainy River underground mines could affect Coeur's final Q3 2026 production numbers?

New Afton C-Zone Q2 2026 ProductionApproximately 12,000 tonnes/day [1][2]
Rainy River Underground Q2 2026 ProductionApproximately 2,300 tonnes/day [1][2]
Coeur Consolidated 2026 Gold Guidance RevisionReduced from 680,000–815,000 ounces to 630,000–750,000 ounces [1][3]
Slower production ramp-ups will likely negatively impact Coeur's Q3 2026 gold numbers. Coeur's Q3 2026 gold production is expected to be lower due to slower-than-anticipated ramp-ups at both the New Afton C-Zone and Rainy River underground mines [1][2]. These operational delays have led to downward revisions in Coeur's 2026 gold guidance, suggesting Q3 results might fall short of initial expectations [1][3].
New Afton and Rainy River mine ramp-up targets are now delayed. At the New Afton C-Zone, Q2 2026 production averaged approximately 12,000 tonnes/day, reaching 14,000 tonnes/day by late July. The target of 16,000 tonnes/day is now anticipated for early Q4, a delay from the original end-Q2 projection [1][2]. Similarly, Rainy River underground production averaged around 2,300 tonnes/day in Q2 and increased to 3,300 tonnes/day in July. The underground output is now projected to ramp linearly to 5,000 tonnes/day by year-end, rather than the earlier Q3 target [1][2]. Both these delays directly pose a downside risk to Q3 gold production [1][2].
Slower ramp-ups led to significant downward revisions in 2026 gold guidance. The slower production increases prompted Coeur to reduce its prorated nine-month 2026 guidance. New Afton's gold guidance was revised from 60,000–80,000 ounces to 50,000–60,000 ounces, and Rainy River's from 230,000–275,000 ounces to 190,000–230,000 ounces [1]. These combined adjustments resulted in a consolidated 2026 gold guidance reduction for Coeur from 680,000–815,000 ounces to 630,000–750,000 ounces, strongly indicating that Q3 results could be below initial projections [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining (CDE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Provides Company Update Post-New Gold Closingcoeur.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Coeur has not yet reported Q3 2026 results as of October 24, 2026. The Q3 operational and financial results are scheduled after market close on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with the conference call on Thursday, November 5 at 11:00 a.m. ET [1]. The next major market repricing is likely between the November 4 release and the November 5 Q&A [2][3]. Q2 2026 gold production was a record 163,490 ounces, up 69% quarter over quarter and 51% year over year; Q2 revenue was $1.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA $478 million, and free cash flow $388 million [1]. Following Q2, Coeur's updated 2026 consolidated gold guidance was 630,000–750,000 ounces, versus 680,000–815,000 previously, reflecting slower-than-assumed ramp-ups at New Afton's C-Zone and Rainy River underground operations [1]. Management indicated approximately 690,000 ounces based on the midpoint of refined guidance [1]. Company commentary implies Q3 should be a step-up quarter, with Q4 higher still [4]. The Kalshi prediction market priced approximately an 81% chance of Q3 gold production above 190,000 ounces, 46% above 200,000 ounces, and 33% above 210,000 ounces; this market expires around the November 4 release window [5]. A third-party earnings-consensus page showed Q3 2026 estimates of approximately $1.32 billion revenue and $0.31 EPS [6]; these estimates are not Coeur guidance and should be treated as potentially stale or variable [6].
Bullish catalysts include production growth from acquired Canadian assets, stronger second-half output at Rochester and Wharf, and sustained high gold and silver prices [1][4]. The company projects record 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $2.3 billion and free cash flow of about $1.5 billion [1]. Liquidity stood at $1.1 billion at Q2 quarter-end, and continuing buybacks/dividends are also considered bullish factors [1][4].
Bearish catalysts include another miss in New Afton or Rainy River ramp-up, further guidance reductions, elevated capital spending of $520–$605 million, lower realized metals prices, purchase-price-allocation or other non-cash charges, and weaker-than-expected recoveries, grades, throughput, or costs [1][4]. Important KPIs for the Q3 release include consolidated gold ounces versus the 190,000/200,000/210,000-ounce prediction-market thresholds; silver and copper production; revenue, adjusted EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow; cash and net debt; cash costs and all-in sustaining costs; capital expenditures; New Afton C-Zone tonnes per day and ramp timing; Rainy River underground tonnes per day toward 5,000 by year-end; Rochester leach-pad performance; Wharf throughput; and whether 2026 guidance is reaffirmed [1][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 04, 2027
  • Closes: March 04, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Callcoeur.com
  3. 3Coeur Mining Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
  4. 4Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
  5. 5Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com