Coeur Mining gold production in Q3
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production Above 180000 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market). This suggests the market may be underpricing the expectation of significantly higher production in H2 2026, including Q3, despite slower-than-expected ramp-ups at key assets and a downward revision to full-year guidance.
1. Executive Verdict
- Q3 production above 180,000 ounces is favored due to expected H2 output increase.
- Output above 200,000 ounces faces headwinds from slower New Afton, Rainy River ramp-ups.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 180000 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Slower ramp-ups, lower-than-planned grades, and reduced full-year guidance temper upside potential for Q3 production. |
| Above 190000 | 0.0% | 18.0% | Slower ramp-ups, lower-than-planned grades, and reduced full-year guidance temper upside potential for Q3 production. |
| Above 200000 | 0.0% | 16.0% | Slower ramp-ups, lower-than-planned grades, and reduced full-year guidance temper upside potential for Q3 production. |
| Above 210000 | 0.0% | 14.0% | Slower ramp-ups, lower-than-planned grades, and reduced full-year guidance temper upside potential for Q3 production. |
| Above 220000 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Slower ramp-ups, lower-than-planned grades, and reduced full-year guidance temper upside potential for Q3 production. |
Current Context
Coeur Mining has not yet reported Q3 2026 gold production results. The company's most recent financial and production update was for Q2 2026, released on August 5, 2026 [^][^]. As of August 13, 2026, actual Q3 2026 gold production figures are not available [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The most recent confirmed quarterly gold production was 163,490 ounces in Q2 2026 [^][^][^].
Q2 2026 marked record production and financial performance for Coeur Mining. The company achieved 163,490 ounces of gold production and $1.09 billion in revenue during the quarter [^][^][^]. This performance was driven by the initial full quarter contributions from the New Afton and Rainy River acquisitions [^][^][^]. Coeur refined its 2026 full-year production guidance to approximately 690,000 ounces of gold, 20 million ounces of silver, and 45 million pounds of copper [^][^]. This adjustment reflects lower-than-planned grades at certain assets and slower-than-expected production ramp-ups [^][^].
Management expects significantly higher production and free cash flow in the second half of 2026. Production and cash flow are anticipated to increase, with fourth-quarter output projected to exceed third-quarter levels [^][^][^][^]. This outlook relies on a projected spike in silver production at Rochester and continued ramp-ups at New Afton and Rainy River [^][^]. Analyst sentiment remains mixed, balancing optimism regarding Coeur's expanded asset base and record cash generation with execution risks, inflationary pressures, and the impact of the lowered guidance [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is nascent and effectively untraded. The price has moved within a narrow 100-basis-point range between 1.0% and 2.0% since its inception on August 13, 2026. Given the extremely limited number of data points, the overall trend is sideways. The price chart does not indicate any significant movements driven by market activity or new information.
The complete absence of traded volume is the most critical feature of this market. With zero contracts traded, the price fluctuations from 1.0% to 2.0% do not reflect executed trades or a shift in consensus. Instead, these changes likely represent adjustments to the bid-ask spread by the market's initial liquidity provider. No specific news driver can be correlated with the price change, as the most recent company update on Q2 2026 results was issued before the market's first price print.
The lack of trading history means no meaningful support or resistance levels have been established. The price simply reflects an initial, untested offer. Consequently, the chart provides no reliable signal about market sentiment or expectations for Coeur Mining's Q3 gold production. The market remains unformed pending actual trading activity.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 13, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 15.0%
Outcome: Above 190000
What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point price spike on August 13, 2026, was a re-evaluation of Coeur Mining's Q2 2026 earnings report, released in early August. Despite a downward revision to full-year 2026 gold production guidance, the report announced record Q2 gold production of 163,490 ounces and a new capital return program, causing the stock to gain 16.6% [^][^][^][^]. This generated significant positive sentiment which likely led prediction market participants to optimistically interpret the data, possibly focusing on the Rainy River mine's revised annual guidance floor of 190,000 ounces as an indicator for strong Q3 consolidated production [^][^]. Social media was irrelevant to this movement, as no specific activity was identified in the provided research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market predicts Coeur Mining's gold production for Q3. The "YES" outcome resolves if Coeur Mining's gold production in Q3 is above 180,000 ounces, while the "NO" outcome resolves if production is 180,000 ounces or less. Trading ends on November 4th at 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is March 4, 2027. The specific data source for verifying the production figures is not detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 180000 | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above 190000 | $0.98 | $0.85 | 0% |
| Above 200000 | $0.97 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above 210000 | $0.97 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above 220000 | $0.96 | $0.85 | 0% |
| Above 230000 | $0.96 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Coeur Mining reported record gold production of 163,490 ounces in Q2 2026 but subsequently announced a downward adjustment to its full-year 2026 consolidated gold production guidance due to slower-than-expected operational ramp-ups at its Canadian assets [^][^][^]. This revised outlook led to a significant stock price drop in early August 2026, signaling market concerns about the company's production capabilities, even though social media and investor sentiment largely remain bullish [^][^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 180000PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 190000Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 200000Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 210000Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 220000Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Above 230000Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026
6. What are the current analyst consensus and range of estimates for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production?
| Q3 2026 Gold Production Consensus | Not available from public analyst consensus or estimates [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Annual Gold Production Guidance | Approximately 690,000 ounces (Coeur Mining, post Q2 results) [^] |
| Q3 2026 Production Trend | Expected to be a step-up quarter, with Q4 further increasing from Q3 levels (Coeur Mining management expectations) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
No analyst consensus exists for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 gold production. As of August 13, 2026, there is no specific analyst consensus or estimated range available for Coeur Mining's Q3 2026 physical gold production volume. Financial market data platforms and available analyst reports typically provide estimates for metrics such as revenue, earnings per share (EPS), EBITDA, EBIT, and net income, but they do not explicitly list physical gold production volume for this specific quarter [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Coeur Mining provides full-year guidance but no quarterly specifics. Coeur Mining has provided full-year 2026 gold production guidance, with an updated estimate of approximately 690,000 ounces for the year following its second-quarter results [^]. While the company anticipates stronger second-half production and expects Q4 production to surpass Q3 levels, implying Q3 will be a step-up quarter, no precise ounce estimate for Q3 2026 gold production has been publicly disclosed by the company or by analysts [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. How will the ongoing production ramp-ups at the newly acquired New Afton and Rainy River mines impact Coeur's H2 2026 output?
| Original 2026 Gold Guidance | 680,000–815,000 ounces [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Revised 2026 Gold Guidance | 630,000–750,000 ounces [^][^][^] |
| New Afton Ramp-up Delay | 3 months [^][^][^] |
Coeur Mining anticipates reduced H2 2026 output due to slow ramp-ups. The company's second-half 2026 output is projected to be negatively impacted by slower-than-expected production ramp-ups at its newly acquired Canadian mines, New Afton and Rainy River. This led Coeur Mining to lower its 2026 production guidance in early August 2026 [^][^][^][^].
Production delays persist at both New Afton and Rainy River mines. At New Afton, the C-Zone ramp-up to 16,000 tonnes per day is now expected early in the fourth quarter, approximately three months later than the original budget [^][^][^]. At Rainy River, underground production rates are expected to ramp up linearly to a target of 5,000 tonnes per day by year-end 2026, with July rates recorded at approximately 3,300 tonnes per day [^][^][^].
8. How did Coeur Mining's All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) in H1 2026 compare to key competitors like Newmont and Barrick Gold?
| Coeur Mining H1 2026 AISC | $2.36 thousand per ounce of gold [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Newmont Q2 2026 Gold By-Product AISC | $1,621 per ounce [^][^][^] |
| Barrick Gold Q2 2026 AISC | $1,866 per ounce of gold [^][^] |
Coeur Mining's H1 2026 AISC significantly exceeded its main competitors. In the first half of 2026, Coeur Mining reported a consolidated All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $2.36 thousand per ounce of gold [^][^]. This figure was notably higher compared to the Q2 2026 AISC reported by key competitors, Newmont and Barrick Gold [^][^][^][^][^].
Newmont's Q2 2026 Gold By-Product AISC was $1,621 per ounce. The company's Gold By-Product AISC for Q2 2026 stood at $1,621 per ounce [^][^][^]. Newmont's H1 2026 performance is indicated as tracking well below its full-year cost guidance, and consolidated H1 2026 AISC figures are typically derived from quarterly reports [^][^][^].
Barrick Gold's Q2 2026 AISC stood at $1,866 per ounce. Barrick Gold reported an AISC of $1,866 per ounce of gold in Q2 2026 [^][^]. Its consolidated H1 2026 AISC is projected to be within its full-year guidance range of $1,760–$1,950 per ounce [^][^]. However, explicit consolidated H1 2026 AISC figures for both Newmont and Barrick Gold were not provided, with only their Q2 2026 results and performance descriptions made available [^][^][^][^][^].
9. Based on Coeur Mining's investor relations calendar and past schedules, what is the expected release date for the official Q3 2026 production report?
| Expected Q3 2026 Report Release | Final week of October 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Historical Q3 Release Date | Late October (Q3 2025 reported October 29, 2025) [^][^][^] |
| Recent 2026 Releases | Q1 on May 6, 2026; Q2 on August 5, 2026 [^][^] |
Coeur Mining consistently reports third-quarter results in late October, aligning with a predictable quarterly update pattern. For instance, the company released its Q3 2025 results on October 29, 2025 [^][^][^]. In 2026, Coeur Mining also reported its Q1 results on May 6 and its Q2 results on August 5, reinforcing its routine for timely quarterly disclosures [^][^].
10. What operational challenges, such as ore grade variability or equipment uptime, were highlighted in Coeur's Q2 2026 report that could persist into Q3?
| Operational Challenges Expected | Persist into the second half of 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| New Afton Ramp-up Target | Early Q4 2026 to 16,000 tonnes per day [^][^] |
| New Afton Ramp-up Delay | Approximately three months later than initially planned [^][^] |
Coeur Mining anticipates ongoing operational challenges, notably lower ore grades. The Q2 2026 report highlighted significant issues with lower-than-planned ore grades at Kensington, Rochester, and Palmarejo, which are expected to persist into the second half of 2026, encompassing Q3 [^][^][^][^]. These difficulties are further compounded by slower-than-expected ramp-ups of underground mining at the newly acquired Rainy River and New Afton mines [^][^][^].
Ramp-up delays and inflation add further operational pressure. At Rainy River, specific challenges included equipment and infrastructure gaps, as well as personnel and availability issues under the previous contractor, leading to tactical execution problems [^][^][^][^]. Coeur is addressing these through increased capital and operating costs [^][^][^]. The ramp-up for New Afton to achieve 16,000 tonnes per day is now anticipated for early Q4 2026, approximately three months later than originally planned [^][^]. Management also noted that inflationary pressures, particularly diesel prices, remain a variable in the cost structure for the remainder of 2026, despite showing some improvement in July [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Coeur Mining is expected to report its Q3 2026 financial results on October 28, 2026 [^] . The company's full-year 2026 consolidated gold production guidance is 680,000 – 815,000 ounces, which incorporates production from its newly acquired Canadian mines, New Afton and Rainy River [^][^]. Q2 2026 was a record quarter with $1.09 billion in revenue and 163,490 gold ounces produced; the company anticipates a second-half weighted production and cash flow profile for 2026 [^][^].
As of 2026-08-13, Q3 2026 production results were not yet posted on the company’s quarterly-results page [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . If Coeur’s upcoming Q3 2026 results ultimately land near the ~111k–112k ounce "Q3" figures that appear in some evidence snippets, that could imply stable quarter-to-quarter production and could support near-term sentiment [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, the lack of a posted Q3 2026 production release increases uncertainty; if Q3 2026 differs materially from the ~111k–112k ounce numbers, that could pressure expectations [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 04, 2027
- Closes: March 04, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Coeur Mining is expected to report its Q3 2026 financial results on October 28, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: The company's full-year 2026 consolidated gold production guidance is 680,000 – 815,000 ounces, which incorporates production from its newly acquired Canadian mines, New Afton and Rainy River [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Q2 2026 was a record quarter with $1.09 billion in revenue and 163,490 gold ounces produced; the company anticipates a second-half weighted production and cash flow profile for 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts include successful integration of New Gold assets, expansion of share buybacks, and potential for margin expansion in the second half of 2026 [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
