Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Coeur Mining's 2026 gold production to be Above 650000, with model probabilities at 45.0% versus market probabilities at 0.0%. This divergence follows Coeur Mining's announcement of 2026 gold production guidance at approximately 690,000 ounces, a figure the company is actively targeting.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp repricing event. The probability started at a floor of 1.0% before spiking 35 percentage points to 36.0% on August 13-14, 2026, where it has remained. This move establishes a new price level, suggesting the market has absorbed a significant piece of fundamental news and sees no immediate reason to adjust its assessment. The prior 1.0% level can be seen as the baseline probability before new information became available.
The price surge was a direct reaction to Coeur Mining's second-quarter 2026 results announcement. In that release, the company reported record quarterly gold production and, crucially, updated its full-year 2026 guidance to approximately 690,000 ounces. This figure from the company aligns with the high end of the market's resolution range. The market appears to have priced this new guidance in immediately and completely.
Overall market conviction appears low, as evidenced by total traded volume of only 20 contracts. The stability at 36.0% since the announcement indicates a new consensus, but the lack of subsequent trading volume suggests either low liquidity or that participants see the current price as fair value, with little new information expected in the near term. The current price reflects a market that has shifted from near-zero probability to assigning a roughly one-in-three chance of the outcome based on the company's official guidance.
  • Coeur Mining confirmed full-year 2026 gold production guidance at approximately 690,000 ounces.
  • Expected stronger second-half production and New Gold asset integration are key drivers.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 700000 31.0% 35.0% Model higher by 4.0pp
Above 650000 0.0% 45.0% Model higher by 45.0pp
Above 675000 0.0% 40.0% Model higher by 40.0pp
Above 725000 0.0% 5.0% Model higher by 5.0pp
Above 750000 0.0% 2.0% Model higher by 2.0pp

Current Context

Coeur Mining targets approximately 690,000 ounces of gold for fiscal 2026 [1]. The company reported record quarterly gold production of 163,490 ounces in Q2 2026. This represented a 51% year-over-year increase and a 69% quarter-over-quarter increase [1].
Strategic acquisitions bolster Coeur's production capacity and financial outlook. Coeur Mining completed an all-stock acquisition of New Gold Inc. on March 20, 2026, adding the New Afton and Rainy River mines in Canada to its portfolio [2][1][3]. Despite slightly slower-than-anticipated ramp-up rates at these new Canadian operations, the company projects record full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion [1][4].
Coeur's significant exploration investment aims to extend mine life. The company is executing its largest-ever exploration program in 2026, with a $158 million investment. This program focuses on mine life extension and resource replenishment [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Provides Company Update Post-New Gold Closingcoeur.com
  3. 3Coeur Mining Q2 2026 results and New Gold deal | CDE Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  4. 4Coeur Mining (CDE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Provides Exploration Update for Palmarejo and Las Chispascoeur.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 78.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 79.0%

Outcome: Above 650000

What happened: The primary driver of the 78.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market was Coeur Mining's official announcement of its Second Quarter 2026 results. The company updated its full-year 2026 consolidated production guidance to approximately 690,000 ounces of gold, which directly confirms the "Above 650000" outcome for the market [1][2][3]. This guidance, along with record Q2 output and strong financial performance, led to a 7.9% rise in Coeur Mining's stock on August 13, 2026, coinciding with the prediction market movement [2][3]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as the provided research offered no specific posts from influential figures or viral narratives related to Coeur Mining's production guidance around the time of the market spike.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining (CDE) Is Up 7.9% After Record Q2 Output and Share Buyback Announcement - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  3. 3Coeur Mining (CDE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if Coeur Mining's total gold production for fiscal year 2026 is above the specified threshold for the market. A "No" resolution occurs if their gold production for fiscal year 2026 is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market begins on February 19, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout date set for May 20, 2027. No special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 700000 $0.32 $0.77 31%
Above 650000 $0.88 $0.21 0%
Above 675000 $0.61 $0.48 0%
Above 725000 $0.13 $0.96 0%
Above 750000 $0.07 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

Coeur Mining announced on August 15, 2026, an updated full-year 2026 gold production guidance of approximately 690,000 ounces, following record Q2 2026 gold production of 163,490 ounces [1][2][3]. This adjustment reflects a more cautious operational stance, citing slightly slower ramp-up rates at certain operations despite an overall output increase due to the New Gold acquisition [1][3]. Investors and market commentators are focused on the company's ability to balance ambitious production growth with operational execution risks and cost pressures [2][4][3].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining (CDE) Is Up 16.6% After Record Output And New Payout Plan Has The Bull Case Changed?au.finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Why Coeur Mining (CDE) Is Up 19.1% After Record Q2 Output And Cautious 2026 Guidance - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  4. 4Is Coeur Mining (CDE) Undervalued After Record Gold...simplywall.st

5. What specific operational risks at the New Afton and Rainy River mines could cause Coeur Mining's FY2026 production to deviate from its ~690,000 ounce guidance?

FY2026 Gold Production GuidanceApproximately 690,000 ounces [1][2][3]
Guidance Revision DateAugust 2026 [1][2][3]
Rainy River Underground Mining Target5,000 tonnes per day [1][4][5][2]
Coeur Mining's FY2026 production faces risks from key operational challenges. Coeur Mining's gold production for fiscal year 2026 could diverge from its approximately 690,000 ounce guidance due to operational challenges at its New Afton and Rainy River mines [1][2][3]. The company adjusted this guidance downward in August 2026, attributing the change to slower-than-anticipated ramp-up rates at these operations [1][2][3].
New Afton and Rainy River experience distinct ramp-up challenges. At New Afton, the primary operational risk involves a slower-than-expected ramp-up of the new C-Zone, where management is carefully managing cave draw to ensure long-term stability and effective cave propagation [1][4][5][2]. The Rainy River mine faces issues with a slower ramp-up of underground mining rates, stemming from legacy tactical execution gaps under the previous contractor, specifically concerning personnel and equipment availability [1][4][5][2]. The company is actively addressing these issues to achieve a target of 5,000 tonnes per day by year-end [1][4][5][2].
Broader factors, beyond ramp-up issues, could also impact production. Beyond these specific ramp-up issues, additional factors that could influence production or costs include potential diesel price inflation, the ongoing requirement for improvements to underground infrastructure at Rainy River, and typical mining risks such as geotechnical conditions and regulatory permitting [4][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results | Ontario Farmerontariofarmer.com
  3. 3Coeur Mining Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results - Junior Mining Networkjuniorminingnetwork.com
  4. 4Coeur Mining, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Coeur Mining lowers production forecast at Rainy River Mine – Acadia Newsacadia.news
  6. 6Ef20066748 ex99 4.htmsec.gov

6. How is the expected full-year 2026 gold production distributed between Coeur's legacy mines (e.g., Palmarejo, Rochester) and the newly acquired Canadian mines?

Total Gold Production 2026Approximately 690,000 ounces [1][2][3]
Legacy Mines Gold Production 2026390,000 to 460,000 ounces [1][3]
New Afton Revised Gold Production 202650,000 60,000 ounces [1][2][3]
Coeur Mining anticipates its consolidated full-year 2026 gold production will be approximately 690,000 ounces [1][2][3]. A significant portion of this total is projected to come from the company's legacy operations, which include Las Chispas, Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, and Wharf. These mines are expected to contribute between 390,000 and 460,000 ounces of gold in 2026 [1][3].
The two recently acquired Canadian mines saw revised production estimates for 2026. Initially, Rainy River and New Afton were guided to collectively produce 290,000 to 355,000 ounces of gold, prorated for a nine-month period [1][2][3]. However, the 2026 guidance for these Canadian assets was later revised downward in August 2026. This adjustment specifically impacted New Afton, whose expected contribution was reduced to 50,000-60,000 ounces [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Coeur Provides Company Update Post-New Gold Closingcoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  3. 3Ef20066748 ex99 1.htmsec.gov

7. What were the historical quarterly gold production figures for the New Afton and Rainy River mines prior to their acquisition by Coeur Mining in March 2026?

Coeur Mining New Gold Acquisition DateMarch 20, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
New Afton 2025 Gold Production63,021 ounces [6]
Rainy River 2025 Gold Production330,236 ounces [6]
Coeur Mining finalized its acquisition of New Gold Inc. on March 20, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. The historical quarterly gold production figures for the New Afton mine, preceding this acquisition, are available for 2024 and 2025. In 2025, New Afton reported gold production of 17,987 ounces in the first quarter, 16,767 ounces in the second quarter, 14,912 ounces in the third quarter, and 13,355 ounces in the fourth quarter [6]. For 2024, the mine's production was 17,858 ounces in Q1, 18,100 ounces in Q2, 16,477 ounces in Q3, and 19,652 ounces in Q4 [7][6].
Rainy River mine experienced varied quarterly gold production over this period. In 2025, the mine produced 62,384 ounces of gold in Q1, 73,429 ounces in Q2, 100,000 ounces in Q3, and 94,423 ounces in Q4 [6]. During 2024, Rainy River's gold output was 53,040 ounces in the first quarter, 50,498 ounces in the second quarter, 61,370 ounces in the third quarter, and 60,786 ounces in the fourth quarter [7][8][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Coeur Completes Acquisition of New Goldcoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Provides Company Update Post-New Gold Closingcoeur.com
  3. 3Coeur Completes Acquisition of New Goldbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Coeur Provides Company Update Post-New Gold Closingbusinesswire.com
  5. 5cde-20260319sec.gov
  6. 6NGD Q4 2025 MD&As28.q4cdn.com
  7. 7NEW GOLD REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2024 RESULTSprnewswire.com
  8. 8New Gold caps 2024 with strong fourth quarter, despite Rainy River challengesminingweekly.com

8. Based on Coeur's record Q2 2026 production, what quarterly run-rate is required in Q3 and Q4 2026 to meet the full-year guidance of ~690,000 ounces?

Full-year 2026 Gold Guidance~690,000 ounces [1][2][3][4][5][6]
H1 2026 Gold Production259,993 ounces [7][8][9]
H2 2026 Gold Production Required430,007 ounces [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Coeur Mining reported strong first-half 2026 gold production. Coeur Mining's full-year 2026 consolidated gold production guidance is approximately 690,000 ounces [1][2][3][4][5][6]. For the first half of 2026, the company reported 96,503 ounces in Q1 [9][10] and a record 163,490 ounces in Q2 [7][11][12][8]. This resulted in total first-half production of 259,993 ounces [7][8][9].
Achieving full-year guidance necessitates significant second-half output. To meet the full-year target, Coeur Mining must produce an additional 430,007 ounces in the second half of 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This translates to an average quarterly run-rate of approximately 215,003.5 ounces for both Q3 and Q4. Management has indicated expectations for stronger production during the second half of the year, with a further increase projected for Q4 compared to Q3 [8][1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  2. 2www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  3. 3www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  4. 4www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  5. 5www.gurufocus.comOctagon Agentgurufocus.com
  6. 6www.etftrends.comOctagon Agentetftrends.com
  7. 7Coeur Mining, Inc. | Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  8. 8Coeur Mining (CDE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  9. 9Coeur Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  10. 10Documentsec.gov
  11. 11Coeur Mining posts record Q2 2026 results | CDE 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  12. 12Coeur Mining, Inc. Reports Production Results for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 | MarketScreener Indiain.marketscreener.com

9. Could Coeur Mining's $158 million exploration program create any operational trade-offs at existing sites that might affect production targets within fiscal year 2026?

2026 Exploration Program Budget$158 million (in 2026) [1][2][3]
2026 Gold Production Guidance680,000 to 815,000 ounces [4][5][6][3]
Operations in GuidanceSeven North American operations [4][5][6][3]
Coeur Mining's 2026 exploration program poses no indicated operational trade-offs. The company's largest-ever exploration program, budgeted at $158 million for 2026, is strategically focused on near-mine life extension and resource growth. Public information does not indicate that this program will create operational trade-offs adversely affecting its 2026 production targets. The exploration efforts encompass both expansion drilling, categorized as an exploration expense, and infill drilling, which is considered capitalized exploration [1][2][3].
The company's 2026 gold production targets already account for all operations. Coeur Mining has provided consolidated gold production guidance for fiscal year 2026, estimating between 680,000 and 815,000 ounces. This guidance already incorporates the expected contributions from all seven of its North American operations, including those acquired through the New Gold acquisition [4][5][6][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  2. 2Coeur Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  3. 3Coeur Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  4. 4Coeur lifts 2026 production after closing New Gold deal - The Northern Minernorthernminer.com
  5. 5Coeur Mining, Inc. Updates Consolidated Production Guidance for the Year 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  6. 6Coeur lifts output outlook, unveils $750m buyback after New Gold dealminingweekly.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for Coeur Mining include the successful integration of New Gold assets, specifically New Afton and Rainy River [1][2]. Further drivers are the $750 million share buyback program, the introduction of semi-annual dividends, and anticipated production growth from the K-Zone at New Afton [1][2].
The company's outlook for full-year 2026 production, following Q2 2026 results, projects approximately 690,000 oz of gold, 20 million oz of silver, and 45 million lbs of copper [3][2]. Despite slightly slower-than-planned production ramp-ups at New Afton and Rainy River, the financial forecast for 2026 includes record adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion [3][2]. Market sentiment reflects a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating and an average price target of $26.39 [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 20, 2027
  • Closes: May 20, 2027
Sources (4)
  1. 1Coeur lifts output outlook, unveils $750m buyback after New Gold dealminingweekly.com
  2. 2Coeur Mining (CDE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Coeur Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultscoeur.com
  4. 4CDE Stock Price Target | Coeur Mining Analyst Ratingspricetargets.com