Before October
Market Model 6.0% 16.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.0% 18.3%
Product launches Markets
IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing.Active Markets (13)
Mango
Market Model 9.0% 2.4%
Mint
Market Model 30.0% 11.8%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 30.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 11.2%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 85.4%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
New Xbox this year? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 1.9%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 12.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 21.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 28.0% 30.8%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before October | 6.0% | 16.7% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| What flavors will JUUL relaunch? Top outcome: Mango | 9.0% | 2.4% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel this year? Yes refers to: a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Will xAI release a video game before 2027? Yes refers to: Video Game | 40.0% | 30.5% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| Will Dodge release a new Challenger Hellcat before 2027? Yes refers to: Dodge Challenger Hellcat | 17.0% | 11.2% | Med | 70 | Refresh |
| Will BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028? Yes refers to: Fully Electric M3 | 81.0% | 85.4% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
| New Xbox this year? Yes refers to: a new Xbox video game console | 16.0% | 7.6% | Med | 73 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium this year? Yes refers to: a new reference in titanium | 3.0% | 1.9% | Med | 66 | Refresh |
| Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year? Yes refers to: a steel Nautilus reference | 10.0% | 12.8% | Med | 66 | Refresh |
| Will Sony Pictures Animation release 'KPop Demon Hunters 2" before 2027? Yes refers to: KPop Demon Hunters 2 | 8.0% | 8.0% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 19.0% | 21.7% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | 72 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (6)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least $900
Market Model 83.0% 83.1%
At least $1000
Market Model 51.0% 52.6%
Yes
Market Model 79.0% 79.0%
SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 83.0% | 83.1% | High | — | |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 79.0% | 79.0% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — |
