↑$3.0T
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
↑$2.0T
Market Model 39.0% 29.2%
Big Tech Markets
Active Markets (8)
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 87.2%
Richest person on December 31, 2026? Polymarket
Bernard Arnault
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Jeff Bezos
Market Model 0.7% 0.8%
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket
June 30, 2026
Market Model 0.0% 9.3%
December 31, 2026
Market Model 16.0% 9.3%
AI bubble burst by...? Polymarket
December 31, 2026
Market Model 15.8% 7.9%
March 31, 2026
Market Model 0.0% 7.9%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Polymarket
Anthropic
Market Model 8.1% 1.9%
Kraken
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
IPOs before 2027? Polymarket
SpaceX
Market Model 100.0% 100.0%
Ledger
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
Nebius Group
Market Model 3.1% 1.0%
Perplexity AI
Market Model 19.0% 9.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Top outcome: ↑$3.0T | 16.0% | 8.0% | Med | $2,923,226.04 | Refresh |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Yes refers to: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 84.0% | 87.2% | High | $1,965,001.29 | Refresh |
| Richest person on December 31, 2026? Top outcome: Bernard Arnault | 0.3% | 0.4% | High | $1,872,663.07 | Refresh |
| OpenAI IPO by...? Top outcome: June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | 9.3% | High | $2,679,317.69 | Refresh |
| AI bubble burst by...? Top outcome: December 31, 2026 | 15.8% | 7.9% | High | $2,925,278.52 | Refresh |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 8.1% | 1.9% | High | $5,155,028.15 | Refresh |
| IPOs before 2027? Top outcome: SpaceX | 100.0% | 100.0% | Med | $6,939,754.93 | Refresh |
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Top outcome: Nebius Group | 3.1% | 1.0% | Med | $18,128,261.25 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (3)
$100B
Market Model 7.0% 7.5%
$95B
Market Model 27.0% 28.7%
$16B
Market Model 78.0% 72.0%
$18B
Market Model 6.0% 2.8%
74%-76%
Market Model 88.0% 74.8%
72%-74%
Market Model 0.3% 0.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above __? Top outcome: $100B | 7.0% | 7.5% | High | $2,518.14 | |
| Will Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 AI revenue be above __? Top outcome: $16B | 78.0% | 72.0% | High | $4,784.08 | |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP)? Top outcome: 74%-76% | 88.0% | 74.8% | High | $4,734.71 |
