Richest person on December 31, 2026? Polymarket
Bernard Arnault
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Jeff Bezos
Market Model 0.7% 0.8%
Elon Musk Markets
Active Markets (6)
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Polymarket
Anthropic
Market Model 8.1% 1.9%
Kraken
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 10.6%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richest person on December 31, 2026? Top outcome: Bernard Arnault | 0.3% | 0.4% | High | $1,872,663 | Refresh |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 8.1% | 1.9% | High | $5,155,028 | Refresh |
| X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | 9,927 contracts | Refresh |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 15.0% | 10.6% | Med | 37,942 contracts | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | 26,492 contracts | Refresh |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | 52,315 contracts | Refresh |
Expired Markets (5)
Yes
Market Model — —
SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | 180,515 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 1,563,985 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 103,599 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 546,589 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 736,763 contracts |
