NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP)?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for NVIDIA's (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) to be in the most likely range of 74%-76%, showing 74.8% model probability versus 88.0% market probability.
1. Executive Verdict
- 74%-76% is most probable, aligning with NVIDIA's announced 75.0% Q2 non-GAAP guidance.
- NVIDIA's historical tendency to slightly exceed guidance suggests margin could reach 76-78%.
- A margin exceeding 78% is less probable without extraordinary positive developments.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74%-76% | 88.0% | 74.8% | NVIDIA announced Q2 FY2027 gross margin guidance of 75.0% (±50 bps), historically met or exceeded. |
| 72%-74% | 0.3% | 0.2% | This falls below NVIDIA's 74.5% guidance, and no evidence supports a downward margin adjustment. |
| 76%-78% | 12.0% | 9.9% | NVIDIA historically slightly exceeds guidance; a strong operational quarter could push margins into this range. |
| 78%+ | 12.4% | 8.5% | This significantly exceeds NVIDIA's 75.0% (±50 bps) guidance, lacking evidence for such substantial outperformance. |
| <72% | 10.0% | 6.6% | This represents a substantial miss below NVIDIA's 74.5% guidance, with no evidence of one-time charges. |
Current Context
NVIDIA forecasts Q2 FY2027 non-GAAP gross margin at 75.0%. The company’s outlook for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points [^][^][^]. This projection was provided in NVIDIA's Q1 FY2027 financial results release on May 20, 2026 [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market shows a consistent upward trajectory, moving from a 67.0% probability on August 4 to its current level of 90.0%. The price trend is defined by a series of sharp upward adjustments in early August rather than a gradual climb. These spikes, such as the 16.0 percentage point move on August 4 and the 14.5 point move on August 11, do not correlate with any breaking news on those specific dates. Instead, the price action appears to be a delayed pricing-in of NVIDIA's official Q2 guidance, which was announced on May 20, 2026. That forecast projected a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0% plus or minus 50 basis points, an interval that falls entirely within this market's resolution range of 74%-76%.
The most critical technical factor is that the total traded volume is zero contracts. All observed price movements have occurred without any buying or selling activity. This indicates the price changes are not the result of participant trading or capital-backed conviction. The price is likely being adjusted algorithmically or structurally to align with the high probability of the outcome defined by NVIDIA's own financial guidance. Consequently, the concept of market-derived sentiment is limited here. The 90.0% price simply reflects the high likelihood of the company meeting its own forecast, an outcome that has been public information for months.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 11, 2026: 14.5pp spike
Price increased from 75.0% to 89.5%
Outcome: 74%-76%
What happened: NVIDIA's official guidance for Q2 fiscal 2027 non-GAAP gross margin, announced in May 2026, was approximately 75.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, aligning with the "74%-76%" outcome range [^][^][^]. There is no evidence of specific social media activity or breaking news on August 11, 2026, directly related to NVIDIA's Q2 gross margin that would cause such a significant spike. The 14.5 percentage point spike appears to be a market re-alignment or increased confidence in NVIDIA meeting its previously announced guidance as the Q2 earnings release date of August 26, 2026, approached [^][^][^][^]. Consequently, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
📈 August 06, 2026: 12.5pp spike
Price increased from 69.5% to 82.0%
Outcome: 74%-76%
What happened: The reported "12.5 percentage point spike" in the prediction market for NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 adjusted gross margin on August 06, 2026, appears to be a misinterpretation [^][^][^]. This figure likely refers to the significant sequential gross margin increase observed in Q2 FY2026, which was reported in August 2025, rather than a movement in the Q2 FY2027 market [^][^][^]. For Q2 FY2027, NVIDIA had previously announced guidance for a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 75.0% plus or minus 50 basis points, which aligns with the "74%-76%" outcome [^][^][^]. Therefore, there is no evidence of a specific price spike on August 06, 2026, or any related social media activity driving such a move.
📈 August 04, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 67.0% to 83.0%
Outcome: 74%-76%
What happened: The reported 16.0 percentage point spike on August 4, 2026, in the "74%-76%" outcome for NVIDIA's Q2 adjusted gross margin appears to be a misinterpretation of a shift, as official Q2 results are not scheduled until August 26, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. NVIDIA announced its Q2 fiscal 2027 non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 75.0% (plus or minus 50 basis points) in May 2026, a range (74.5%-75.5%) that already encompasses the "74%-76%" outcome [^][^][^][^][^]. There is no evidence of new social media activity, influential posts, or breaking traditional news on August 4, 2026, that would introduce new information to cause a significant price movement [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, any observed market movement on that date likely represents a consolidation around NVIDIA's pre-existing guidance. Social media was irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided content is for a Polymarket prediction market, not Kalshi.
This market resolves based on NVIDIA's Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) as reported in its official company earnings materials, ignoring any subsequent revisions. If the metric is not reported, or earnings are not released by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. Special settlement conditions include using the midpoint for reported ranges and resolving to the higher range if a value falls exactly between two brackets.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74%-76% | $0.91 | $0.11 | 88% |
| 78%+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 12% |
| 76%-78% | $0.10 | $0.95 | 12% |
| <72% | $0.04 | $0.99 | 10% |
| 72%-74% | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders overwhelmingly anticipate NVIDIA's Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) to fall within the 74%-76% range, with a 90% market probability. This consensus is primarily driven by NVIDIA's official guidance of 75.0% ± 50 basis points, underpinned by strong AI accelerator pricing power and the shift to higher-margin Blackwell platforms. While robust hyperscale demand and NVIDIA's track record support this outlook, potential challenges such as unexpected supply-chain costs during the Blackwell ramp or adverse product-mix changes could impact the final margin.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
74%-76%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
<72%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
72%-74%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
76%-78%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
78%+Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 13, 2026
6. How do Wall Street analyst consensus estimates for NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 gross margin compare to the company's official guidance of 75.0%?
| Analyst Consensus Q2 FY2027 GM | 75.0% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| NVIDIA Official Guidance Q2 FY2027 non-GAAP GM | 75.0% (plus or minus 50 basis points) [^][^][^][^] |
| Prediction Market Probability (74-76% GM) | 77-78% [^] |
Wall Street analysts generally align with NVIDIA's Q2 gross margin guidance. Consensus estimates for NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 gross margin largely match the company's official guidance of 75.0% [^][^]. NVIDIA's specific non-GAAP gross margin guidance for the quarter is 75.0%, with a potential fluctuation of plus or minus 50 basis points [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets anticipate NVIDIA's gross margin will match guidance. Platforms such as Polymarket indicate expectations that the actual results will closely align with the company's stated guidance. These markets show a high implied probability, approximately 77-78%, that the non-GAAP gross margin will fall within the 74-76% range [^].
7. What is the anticipated impact of the Blackwell architecture sales ramp on NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 product mix and overall gross margin?
| Anticipated Non-GAAP Gross Margin Q2 FY2027 | 75.0% (plus or minus 50 basis points) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Blackwell Architecture Status | Moved from ramp to standard volume deployment [^][^][^] |
| Expected Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report Date | August 26, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Blackwell architecture will likely stabilize NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 gross margin at 75%. NVIDIA's anticipated non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 FY2027 is guided at 75.0%, with a potential variance of plus or minus 50 basis points [^][^][^]. The Blackwell architecture is identified as a primary driver of revenue, contributing to profit margins stabilizing at structurally higher levels around 75% [^][^][^]. This aligns with official guidance and prediction markets, which strongly favor an outcome between 74% and 76% [^][^].
Blackwell is in volume production, but product mix impact remains unclear. The Blackwell architecture has successfully transitioned from its initial ramp phase to standard volume deployment [^][^][^]. While it is a significant contributor to revenue, the provided information does not contain specific details on how its sales ramp is anticipated to impact the overall product mix composition for NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027. NVIDIA is expected to report its fiscal Q2 2027 earnings on August 26, 2026, after market close [^][^][^].
8. How has NVIDIA's gross margin in its data center segment compared to AMD's over the last four reported quarters?
| NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 75.0% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin Guidance | 75.0% plus or minus 50 basis points [^][^][^] |
| AMD Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 56% [^][^][^] |
Segment-specific gross margin comparisons are not directly available for NVIDIA or AMD. A direct comparison of gross margin percentages specifically for the data center segments of NVIDIA and AMD is not feasible because neither company explicitly discloses this metric at the segment level. AMD reports Data Center segment revenue and operating income but does not provide a specific gross margin percentage for it [^][^][^][^]. NVIDIA, conversely, reports gross margin at the company-wide level instead of breaking it down by segment [^].
NVIDIA reported robust company-wide non-GAAP gross margins for recent quarters. For NVIDIA, the company's total non-GAAP gross margin was 75.0% in Q1 FY2027 [^][^][^]. Looking ahead, NVIDIA has provided guidance for Q2 FY2027, projecting a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0% plus or minus 50 basis points [^][^][^].
AMD's overall gross margins were lower than NVIDIA's over recent quarters. In terms of AMD's overall financial performance, its gross margin for Q2 2026 was reported at 54% on a GAAP basis and 56% on a non-GAAP basis [^][^][^]. For the preceding quarter, Q1 2026, AMD's GAAP gross margin stood at 53% [^].
9. Based on historical data, how consistently has NVIDIA's actual reported gross margin exceeded its initial quarterly guidance over the past two years?
| Gross Margin Performance | Consistently met or slightly exceeded initial quarterly guidance (past two years) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Guidance Precision | Management consistently provides precise quarterly gross margin guidance [^][^][^] |
| Exceptions to Trend | Occur with significant one-time charges, such as inventory charge in Q1 fiscal year 2026 [^][^][^] |
NVIDIA consistently meets or exceeds gross margin guidance. Over the past two years, NVIDIA's actual reported gross margin has consistently met or slightly exceeded its initial quarterly guidance [^][^][^]. This trend suggests that NVIDIA's management provides precise quarterly gross margin guidance.
10. Are there any recent statements from key supplier TSMC regarding wafer pricing or capacity that could materially affect NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 cost of goods sold?
| TSMC Q2 2026 Earnings Call Date | July 16, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| TSMC 2026 CapEx Guidance | $60 billion–$64 billion [^][^] |
| NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Gross Margin Expectation | near 75.0% [^][^][^] |
TSMC announced no immediate wafer price increases affecting NVIDIA's costs. During its Q2 2026 earnings call on July 16, 2026, TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei affirmed a partnership-based pricing philosophy, explicitly stating the company's intent not to "suddenly increase" wafer prices by 4x or 5x, prioritizing customer success and sustainability [^][^][^]. No specific new wafer price hikes were announced that would materially affect NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 cost of goods sold [^][^]. NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 fiscal quarter concluded around July 26/27, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
TSMC increased CapEx, with NVIDIA's gross margin expected stable. Despite the lack of immediate significant wafer price increases, TSMC raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to $60 billion–$64 billion. This increase is intended to support multi-year structural demand in artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) [^][^]. Prediction markets and market consensus generally anticipate NVIDIA's non-GAAP adjusted gross margin for Q2 FY2027 to remain stable near 75.0% [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Market sentiment is bullish leading into the earnings report, driven by strong AI demand expectations and analyst consensus [^] [^] . 26 | The Motley Fool" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. However, some analysts note potential margin pressure in the second half of the year due to new product launches like Rubin [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 26, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: NVIDIA's Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release and conference call are scheduled for Wednesday, August 26, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company provided guidance for fiscal Q2 2027 of 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin, plus or minus 50 basis points [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Market sentiment is bullish leading into the earnings report, driven by strong AI demand expectations and analyst consensus [^] [^] .
- Trigger: However, some analysts note potential margin pressure in the second half of the year due to new product launches like Rubin [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
