Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Boeing's Q2 2026 deliveries to be Above 120 aircraft. This outlook aligns with recent market data suggesting approximately 167 commercial deliveries, which surpassed analyst consensus.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market opened with a high baseline probability of 94.0% and has since trended upward into a narrow trading range. The defining price action was a sharp 500 basis point move from 94.0% to 99.0% on or around July 6, 2026. Since this repricing, the market has held steady at the 99.0% level. This price history establishes 94.0% as the initial support level and 99.0% as the current resistance and consensus price.
The price spike on July 6 coincides directly with Boeing's announcement that it had commenced production at its new 737 MAX 'North Line' in Everett. This news appears to have resolved residual market uncertainty, solidifying conviction that Q2 delivery performance met expectations. The price has not deviated from 99.0% since the announcement, suggesting traders view the event as a strong positive signal ahead of the official results on July 28.
Total volume of 6,580 contracts traded indicates meaningful participation and conviction in the price discovery process. The stability of the price at its peak, combined with the volume, suggests a firm market consensus. Sentiment is strongly positive, pricing in a near-certainty that the Q2 delivery numbers will meet the threshold for a "YES" resolution.
  • Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for Above 165 deliveries surged +5.9pp, flipping the edge (model_led).
  • Headline model probability rose +0.2pp, confidence increased +1.0pp, with the model's edge converging to 0.0.
  • Conversely, the model lowered conviction for Above 170 deliveries by -6.0pp, widening the model_led edge.
  • Model-led increases (+1.3pp to +3.6pp) for Above 161-164 deliveries reinforced the shifted outlook.
  • Boeing's Q2 2026 deliveries above 160 aircraft are strongly favored.
  • This expectation reflects Q2 2026 deliveries estimated at 167 aircraft.
  • Deliveries above 170 aircraft are strongly disfavored by this estimate.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Outcome — — Insufficient data

Current Context

Boeing set to release Q2 results amid production ramp-up. The company is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 financial results on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, accompanied by an earnings conference call at 10:30 AM ET [^][^]. Boeing officially commenced production at its new 737 MAX 'North Line' in Everett, Washington, on July 6, 2026. This new line represents a key milestone in efforts to increase production capacity [^][^][^].
Production rates are increasing, reflecting positive delivery trends. As of July 2026, Boeing is transitioning to a monthly 737 production rate of 47 aircraft, with plans to eventually reach 52 per month, supported by the new Everett line [^][^]. The company delivered 250 aircraft in the first five months of 2026. This trend indicates a positive trajectory compared to 220 deliveries in the same period of 2025 [^].
FAA certification for 737 MAX 7 is highly anticipated. Industry sources suggest the imminent FAA type certification of the 737 MAX 7 could occur before the end of July 2026, a development met with high market anticipation [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 165

📈 July 01, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 39.0% to 88.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain specific social media activity or traditional news announcements on July 1, 2026, that explain a 49.0 percentage point spike in the "Boeing Deliveries in Q2" prediction market for the "Above 165" outcome. The research explicitly states that "No specific evidence links a '49.0pp spike' or 'news social media catalyst' to Boeing's Q2 2026 delivery projections as of July 14, 2026" [^]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media was irrelevant, and a primary driver for this market movement cannot be identified. Boeing is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 financial results on July 28, 2026 [^][^].

Outcome: Above 161

📈 June 30, 2026: 29.0pp spike

Price increased from 54.0% to 83.0%

What happened: The provided research offers no indication of social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements on or immediately preceding June 30, 2026, that explicitly caused the 29.0 percentage point market spike. Instead, the price movement likely reflects market participants consolidating expectations for Boeing's Q2 deliveries as the quarter concluded. This was underpinned by the earlier reported production ramp-up, including 107 deliveries in April-May and increased 737 MAX production rates to 47 per month, making the "Above 161" outcome appear highly probable if June deliveries remained robust [^]. Consequently, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver according to the available information.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if The Boeing Company reports above 170 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026, and "No" otherwise. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on April 16, 2026, and will close early if the event occurs, or by August 27, 2026, at 7:00 am EDT; payout is projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading by employees of source agencies or individuals with material, non-public information is prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability

Market Discussion

Traders are discussing whether Boeing's Q2 deliveries will fall below 160 or be in the range of 166-167. While some anticipate deliveries to be "definitely below 160," the market currently shows a strong 95% probability of deliveries being above 165, but only 8% for above 170. There is some uncertainty regarding final reported numbers, with one user mentioning a potential IT outage affecting data finalization.

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above 120PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 130Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above 140Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above 150Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above 155Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above 160Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 161Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 162Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above 163Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Above 164Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 165Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 170Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 175Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 180Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

6. What is the consensus among aerospace analysts for Boeing's Q2 2026 delivery numbers?

Consensus Q2 2026 Delivery Estimate160 aircraft [^][^]
Actual Q2 2026 DeliveriesApproximately 167 aircraft [^][^]
Official Q2 2026 Results Release DateJuly 28, 2026 [^][^]
Boeing's Q2 2026 deliveries surpassed analyst expectations. The company delivered approximately 167 aircraft in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding the aerospace analysts' consensus estimate of 160 units for the period [^][^]. Prediction markets, including Kalshi, had also indicated high probabilities for deliveries to be above the 165-170 unit range prior to the official report [^].
An IT outage impacted quarter-end delivery documentation. A significant IT disruption occurred on June 30, 2026, which interfered with the processing of delivery paperwork at the close of the quarter [^][^]. This incident led analysts to speculate that some aircraft handovers might have been postponed to the subsequent quarter, rather than signaling underlying production problems [^][^]. Boeing is expected to officially release its financial and operational results for Q2 2026 on July 28, 2026 [^][^].

7. How will the FAA's certification timeline for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 models impact Boeing's potential Q2 2026 deliveries?

MAX 7/10 Deliveries Q2 2026Zero [^][^]
Boeing Total Deliveries Q2 2026Approximately 167 [^][^][^]
MAX 7/10 Certification Status (Jul 2026)Not yet certified [^][^]
MAX 7 and MAX 10 certification delays impacted Q2 2026 deliveries. During the second quarter of 2026, neither the Boeing 737 MAX 7 nor the MAX 10 models had secured certification from the FAA, which directly led to zero deliveries of these specific aircraft models in that period [^][^]. Despite the absence of these particular models, Boeing's total commercial aircraft deliveries for Q2 2026 reached approximately 167 units. This volume was maintained through the ongoing production and delivery of existing MAX 8/9, 767, 777, and 787 aircraft, which were unaffected by the certification status of the MAX 7 and MAX 10 [^][^][^].
Certification for MAX 7 and MAX 10 remains pending beyond Q2. As of July 14, 2026, both the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 models continued to await FAA certification [^][^]. The 737 MAX 7 was not anticipated to receive regulatory approval until late July 2026 at the earliest [^][^].

8. How does Boeing's planned 737 MAX production ramp-up in 2026 compare to the schedule for the Airbus A320neo family?

Boeing 737 MAX 2026 Production Target47 aircraft per month [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Airbus A320neo Family End 2027 Target75 aircraft per month [^][^][^]
Comparative Production StrategyBoeing ramping sooner, lower rate; Airbus slower, higher rate [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Boeing plans to stabilize 737 MAX production at 47 aircraft monthly in 2026. Currently ramping up from 42 to 47 jets per month by mid-2026, the company intends to maintain this rate for the remainder of the year [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Boeing also has long-term aspirations to eventually increase production to 52, and then 53-63 aircraft per month [^][^][^]. However, these higher rates are dependent on future regulatory approvals and improvements in supply chain performance [^][^][^]. A new production line at Everett is also planned to support these future increases beyond the 47 aircraft per month level, although no higher monthly rate for 2026 has been disclosed in recent updates [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Airbus targets a much higher A320neo production rate by late 2027. In contrast to Boeing, Airbus aims for a significantly higher production rate of 75 A320neo family aircraft per month [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This ambitious target is anticipated only by the end of 2027, with 2026 being designated as a ramp-up year for the company [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The goal is to reach 70–75 aircraft per month by late 2027, stabilizing at 75 per month thereafter [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Airbus continues to face persistent challenges, including broad supply chain constraints and engine shortages, specifically citing the availability of Pratt & Whitney engines as a critical factor influencing their production goals [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Boeing ramps up sooner to a lower rate than Airbus. The contrasting strategies reveal that Boeing is implementing an earlier production ramp-up, though targeting a comparatively lower stable output [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, Airbus is pursuing a substantially higher ultimate production rate for its A320neo family, albeit on a more extended and later schedule [^][^][^][^][^][^].

9. What are the primary official and third-party sources for tracking Boeing's monthly delivery data through Q2 2026?

Official Boeing Data SourcesInvestors Relations newsroom, Commercial Airplanes order/delivery reporting pages [^][^][^]
Third-Party Data AggregatorsFlight Plans (Forecast International), The Aviation Hub, specialized blogs [^][^][^]
Boeing Q2 2026 Results Release DateJuly 28, 2026 [^][^][^]
Boeing officially reports delivery data through investor and news channels. The company makes its official delivery data available via its Investors Relations newsroom and Commercial Airplanes order/delivery reporting pages [^][^][^]. Press releases containing these figures are typically issued shortly after the close of each quarter [^][^][^]. For instance, the company's finalized quarterly delivery figures for Q2 2026 will be included in its financial results, which are scheduled for release on July 28, 2026 [^][^][^].
Third-party aviation trackers also monitor and compile Boeing delivery data. In addition to Boeing's official disclosures, various third-party aviation industry trackers provide aggregated monthly updates on deliveries [^][^][^]. These independent sources include platforms like Flight Plans (Forecast International), The Aviation Hub, and specialized aviation blogs [^][^][^]. Their reporting is derived from official company data releases and by closely monitoring aircraft handover milestones [^][^][^].

10. Based on Boeing's own guidance from late 2025 and early 2026, what are the key production rate milestones for the 737 and 787 programs?

737 Production Target47 per month by summer 2026, with a further goal to reach 52 per month [^][^][^]
787 Production Target10 aircraft per month later in 2026 [^][^]
737 Deliveries Guidance (FY 2026)500 aircraft [^][^][^]
Boeing plans significant production rate increases for 737 and 787. The 737 program aims to increase production from a stabilized rate of 42 aircraft per month to 47 per month by summer 2026 [^][^]. A further objective is to reach 52 aircraft monthly for the 737, which will be facilitated by the activation of the new 'North Line' assembly facility in Everett [^][^][^]. For the 787 program, Boeing's guidance projects an increase to 10 aircraft per month later in 2026 [^][^].
Boeing provided specific delivery guidance for 2026. For the full year 2026, Boeing anticipates delivering 500 737 aircraft and between 90 to 100 787 aircraft [^][^][^]. In Q1 2026, the company delivered 143 commercial aircraft in total, comprising 114 737s and 15 787s [^][^]. Approximately 10 deliveries originally scheduled for Q1 2026 were deferred to Q2 2026 due to a brief delivery pause for the 737, attributed to a wiring rework issue [^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Boeing Company announced it will release its second quarter 2026 financial results on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . As of July 14, 2026, Boeing has not yet released its Q2 2026 aircraft deliveries. The delivery data, whether total count or month-by-month breakdown, is typically released with the quarterly results package [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The latest official delivery data available as of July 14, 2026, is for Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Boeing is reported to be on track to meet its 2026 delivery guidance, having delivered 250 aircraft through the first five months of the year [^] . Key production developments include the start of a fourth production line, the North Line in Everett, on July 6, 2026 [^]. Potential rate increases to 52 aircraft per month are contingent on KPIs and FAA approval [^]. Prediction market sentiment for total 2026 Boeing deliveries predominantly clusters in the 600 –690 range [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 27, 2026
  • Closes: August 27, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The Boeing Company announced it will release its second quarter 2026 financial results on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: As of July 14, 2026, Boeing has not yet released its Q2 2026 aircraft deliveries.
  • Trigger: The delivery data, whether total count or month-by-month breakdown, is typically released with the quarterly results package [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The latest official delivery data available as of July 14, 2026, is for Q1 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.