Boeing commercial deliveries in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Deliveries above 100 are expected, driven by targeted 737 and 787 production increases.
- However, reaching above 150 deliveries faces significant supply chain and quality constraints.
- New 737 MAX variant deliveries, including the certified 737-7, contribute to 2027 volume.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 71.0% | 60.0% | Market higher by 11.0pp |
| Above 100 | 97.0% | 96.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |
| Above 110 | 0.0% | 76.0% | Model higher by 76.0pp |
| Above 120 | 0.0% | 72.0% | Model higher by 72.0pp |
| Above 130 | 0.0% | 68.0% | Model higher by 68.0pp |
Current Context
Sources (16)
- 1Boeing Company - Boeing Announces Third Quarter Deliveriesinvestors.boeing.com
- 2Boeing delivers 57 jets in Septembercnbc.com
- 3Boeing Company - Boeing Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.boeing.com
- 4Boeing (BA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 5Boeing’s Bca Margin Timelines and Free Cash Flow Targets Clash With Past Guidance in 2026 Earnings Callainvest.com
- 6Boeing Company - Boeing Reports Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.boeing.com
- 7BOEING CO Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026sec.gov
- 8Boeing sees profit for commercial airplane division in 2027, later than expected | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 9BA | Boeing Co. Analyst Estimates & Ratings – WSJwsj.com
- 10Boeing Q1 Earnings Preview: Will BA Stock Take Off Again?tipranks.com
- 11Boeing Lays out Challenges Ahead | Bloomberg Intelligenceyoutube.com
- 12Boeing commercial deliveries next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 13Boeing airplane deliveries above __ in Q1?polymarket.com
- 14Boeing Deliveries in Q1? — Prediction Market | OutcomeCastoutcomecast.com
- 15Boeing commercial deliveries in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 16Boeing (BA) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 October 14, 2026: 72.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 73.0%
Outcome: Above 150
Sources (5)
- 1Boeing Company - Boeing Announces Third Quarter Deliveriesinvestors.boeing.com
- 2Boeing reports Q3 aircraft deliveries across commercial, defense units By Investing.comuk.investing.com
- 3Boeing keeps up the pace, analysts approve but remain vigilant | MarketScreener Hong Konghk.marketscreener.com
- 4Boeing Stock Before Q3 Earnings: 161 Deliveries, and the One Number to Watch | AlphaPilotalphapilot.tech
- 5Topic $ba | LunarCrush for AIlunarcrush.ai
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Boeing commercial deliveries next quarter: Above 160" market, a YES resolution is triggered if Boeing's total commercial airplane deliveries for the next quarter exceed 160. A NO resolution occurs if the total deliveries are 160 or fewer. The market's trading period ends on April 21, 7:00 AM EDT, with a maximum payout date listed as November 28, 2027, and offers 3.5% interest.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 100 | $1.00 | $0.06 | 97% |
| Above 150 | $0.80 | $0.28 | 71% |
| Above 110 | $1.00 | $0.09 | 0% |
| Above 120 | $0.99 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Above 130 | $0.96 | $0.13 | 0% |
| Above 140 | $0.90 | $0.18 | 0% |
| Above 160 | $0.59 | $0.49 | 0% |
| Above 170 | $0.37 | $0.71 | 0% |
| Above 180 | $0.21 | $0.87 | 0% |
| Above 190 | $0.14 | $0.95 | 0% |
| Above 200 | $0.11 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Boeing delivered 143 commercial aircraft in Q1 2026, and a working range of approximately 145–175 deliveries, with a central planning case around 160, is implied for Q1 2027 based on production recovery and prediction market activity [1][2][3][4][5]. Q1 2027 deliveries could see an upside from planned first deliveries of the 737-7, 737-10 (Ryanair specifically expected its first in Q1 2027), and 777-9 [1][6][7]. However, public discussion highlights skepticism regarding Boeing’s "first delivery in 2027" language for the 777X and other certification risks, alongside persistent challenges in production ramp execution and supplier quality [1][6][8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Boeing Company - Boeing Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.boeing.com
- 2Boeing commercial deliveries next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 3Boeing Deliveries in Q1? — Prediction Market | OutcomeCastoutcomecast.com
- 4Boeing airplane deliveries above __ in Q1?polymarket.com
- 5Boeing (BA) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Boeing Targets 777-9 and New 737 Max Variant Deliveries in 2027, GE9X Engine Fix - Aviation A2Zaviationa2z.com
- 7Ryanair CEO: Expect Boeing Max 10 certification to go ahead by Q3 this year, we will get our first deliveries in Q1 2027 | MarketScreener Indiain.marketscreener.com
- 8Boeing confirms first delivery for 2027, seven years late. | Aeronewslinkedin.com
- 9Boeing yesterday confirmed 2027 delivery for the 777X - Business Travellerbusinesstraveller.com
- 10In its first quarter 2026 earnings results, Boeing confirmed that the 777X program has continued to make steady progress on 777-9 certification and that the company anticipates first delivery in 2027, effectively …linkedin.com
- 11Boeing Q1 2026: Revenue up 14% to $22.2B, record $695B backlog; 777X FAA TIA 4A testing step toward 2027 delivery - Aviation Newshype.aero
5. What is the latest FAA certification and first-delivery timeline for Boeing's 737-7/10 and 777X models ahead of Q1 2027?
| 737-7 FAA Certification Date | August 3, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 737-10 Flight Testing Completion | July 28, 2026 [3][4] |
| 777X First Delivery Target | 2027 [5] |
Sources (7)
- 1U.S. FAA certifies new Boeing 737-7 airplane - Aug 3, 2026boeing.mediaroom.com
- 2FAA certifies 737-7 - Boeingboeing.com
- 3CEO: 737-10 certification ‘very soon,’ more to do to stabilize productionboeing.com
- 4737-10 completes final certification flight - Boeingboeing.com
- 5Boeing 777X Testing Faces Further Delays, Deliveries Still Set for Next Year - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 6Boeing Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.boeing.com
- 7FAA Administrator Signals 777X Certification In 2027 | Aviation Weekaviationweek.com
6. Based on Boeing's stated H2 2026 performance and production rate targets, what is the implied delivery capacity for Q1 2027?
| Implied Q1 2027 Delivery Capacity | 165–186 commercial airplanes (midpoint ~180) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Commercial Deliveries | 143 commercial airplanes [4][5] |
| 2026 Total Commercial Delivery Target | Up to 600 aircraft [2][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1CEO: 737-10 certification ‘very soon,’ more to do to stabilize productionboeing.com
- 2Boeing’s recovery momentum surges with $24.6B revenue in Q2 | Manufacturing Divemanufacturingdive.com
- 3Boeing at Morgan Stanley’s 14th Annual Laguna Conference: cash flow path By Investing.comng.investing.com
- 4Boeing (BA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 5Boeing (BA) Q1 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 6Boeing outlines $1B-$3B 2026 free cash flow outlook as 737 ramps to 47 per month and targets 500 deliveries (NYSE:BA) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
7. How did Boeing's and Airbus's commercial aircraft deliveries compare in the final quarter of 2026, and what does this suggest for Q1 2027 momentum?
| Airbus YTD Deliveries (Sept 2026) | 547 commercial aircraft [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Boeing YTD Deliveries (Sept 2026) | 475 commercial aircraft [1][4][5] |
| Airbus Q4 Delivery Requirement | 323 aircraft (to meet 2026 target) [3][6][7] |
Sources (11)
- 1Boeing Company - Boeing Announces Third Quarter Deliveriesinvestors.boeing.com
- 2Orders and Deliveries | Airbusairbus.com
- 3Airbus delivers 72 jets, needs 323 in Q4 — THE AIRSIDEtheairside.news
- 4Boeing deliveries reach 161 jets in the third quartertrendandticker.com
- 5[BA] Boeing: Q3 2026 earnings preview, can the 737 ramp carry cash flow? | drillrdrillr.ai
- 6Why Airbus Must Deliver 99 Jets A Month Through Year-End To Hit Its 2026 Targetsimpleflying.com
- 7Airbus Shareholders Brace for a Fourth-Quarter Delivery Gauntletad-hoc-news.de
- 8Average Gap between Contract and Delivery Dates - Airbus and Boeingsiriusavcap.com
- 9Aircraft Backlog and Delivery Slippage Tracker | Boston Warwickbostonwarwick.com
- 10Boeing Targets 777-9 and New 737 Max Variant Deliveries in 2027 as GE9X Engine Fix Progressesaviationanalysis.net
- 11Boeing Lays out Challenges Ahead | Bloomberg Intelligenceyoutube.com
8. Where can traders find Boeing's official monthly delivery reports for late 2026, and what is the typical release schedule for this leading indicator data?
| Official Data Sources | Boeing's Commercial Orders & Deliveries Tableau dashboard and monthly backup PDFs (boeing.com) [1] |
|---|---|
| Monthly Data Update Timing | First half of the following month [2] |
| Tableau Dashboard Last Published | October 13, 2026 [1] |
9. What specific supply chain or quality control issues reported in H2 2026 could constrain Boeing's production ramp-up in Q1 2027?
| 737 MAX Wing Production | Output lagging in September 2026, impacting stabilization at 47 aircraft/month and planned 52/month in 2027 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 787 Engine Deliveries | Fell behind in H1 2026 and require recovery work, challenging ramp toward 10 units/month [4][5][6][7] |
| 777X Engine Testing | GE9X engine durability and mid-seal work requires more testing, potentially delaying 2027 certification [2][8][5][6] |
Sources (10)
- 1CEO: 737-10 certification ‘very soon,’ more to do to stabilize productionboeing.com
- 2More delays for Boeing’s Everett-built 777X, CEO Ortberg says | The Seattle Timesseattletimes.com
- 3Boeing CEO says increasing 737 MAX output is taking longer than expected, shares slidestreetinsider.com
- 4Boeing Sees ‘Volatile’ Supply Base as it Boosts Jet Output - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 5The Boeing Companyroic.ai
- 6BA Q2-2026 Earnings Call - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
- 7Boeing Company - Boeing Reports Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.boeing.com
- 8Boeing holds 737 MAX at 47/month as wing output lags plan — Flightdeck Reportflightdeckreport.com
- 9Boeing leaders discuss production gains and rate plans ahead of air showsboeing.com
- 10Boeing sees significant supply chain quality gains | Reutersreuters.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 28, 2027
- Closes: November 28, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1Boeing Reports Fourth Quarter Results - Jan 27, 2026boeing.mediaroom.com
- 2[PDF] Boeing Reports Second Quarter Resultss2.q4cdn.com
- 3Boeing sees profit for commercial airplane division in 2027, later than expected | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 4ba-20251231sec.gov
- 5Boeing (BA) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 6Boeing pushes 777X jet deliveries to 2027 amid certification delays | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBA-26OCTDELIV-163: NO (Oct 13, 2026)
- KXBA-26OCTDELIV-161: NO (Oct 13, 2026)
- KXBA-26OCTDELIV-159: YES (Oct 13, 2026)
- KXBA-26OCTDELIV-152: YES (Oct 13, 2026)
- KXBA-26OCTDELIV-154: YES (Oct 13, 2026)