Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Toll Brothers deliveries above 9600 units at 20.0% model vs 0.0% market. This divergence is driven by the company's official fiscal 2026 guidance, which projects 10,400 to 10,700 units.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market shows a single, decisive price movement rather than a developing trend. The contract priced at 0% before jumping directly to a 95% probability on August 5, 2026. This repricing reflects the market incorporating definitive public information from Toll Brothers. The company's updated guidance for fiscal 2026 projects deliveries between 10,400 and 10,700 homes. This official forecast makes the resolution criteria—that the company delivers any homes at all in fiscal 2026—a near certainty.
The price action occurred on zero volume. This indicates the sharp upward move was not driven by trading among participants but likely reflects an initial price setting or an update by a market maker based on the company's fundamental announcements. The absence of trading suggests a strong consensus, with no participants willing to bet against the company's own explicit guidance.
The current price of 95% acts as a firm ceiling, signaling overwhelming market confidence in the outcome. There is no evidence of support or resistance levels developing due to the lack of trading activity. The market sentiment is unambiguous: the event is viewed as highly probable, directly reflecting Toll Brothers' stated business expectations for the fiscal year.
  • Deliveries exceeding 10,400 units are exceptionally likely, supported by official company projections.
  • Deliveries above 10,700 units are less probable, exceeding explicit company guidance.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 10500 75.0% 20.0% Market higher by 55.0pp
Above 10400 89.0% 20.0% Market higher by 69.0pp
Above 10000 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 10100 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 10200 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

Toll Brothers updated its fiscal 2026 delivery projections. The company projects total home deliveries for fiscal year 2026 between 10,400 and 10,700 units, with an expected average price per home between $985,000 and $1,000,000 [1][2]. For its second fiscal quarter of 2026, which ended April 30, 2026, Toll Brothers delivered 2,491 homes at an average price of $1,009,000 [3]. Following these results, the company raised its full-year guidance for deliveries and other key metrics [2][3].
Market analysts hold a positive outlook for Toll Brothers. As of August 2026, analysts maintained a consensus rating of "Buy" or "Moderate Buy" for Toll Brothers (TOL) [3][4][5]. The average stock price target is approximately $164–$165 [3][4][5]. In May 2026, Toll Brothers expanded its land base by acquiring the assets and operations of Buffington Homes of Arkansas, adding about 1,500 home sites [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Toll Brothers (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026marketbeat.com
  6. 6tol-20260430sec.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For a specific threshold, a 'YES' resolution occurs if Toll Brothers delivers more than that number of homes in fiscal year 2026, while a 'NO' resolution occurs if they deliver that number or fewer. Trading for this market ends on December 9, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 9, 2027. The settlement condition is based on the total number of homes delivered by Toll Brothers in their fiscal year 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 10400 $0.92 $0.14 89%
Above 10500 $0.75 $0.28 75%
Above 10000 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 10100 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 10200 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 10300 $1.00 $0.09 0%
Above 10600 $0.45 $0.64 0%
Above 10700 $0.24 $0.85 0%
Above 9600 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 9700 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 9800 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 9900 $1.00 $0.06 0%

Market Discussion

Toll Brothers announced on May 19, 2026, that it raised its full-year fiscal 2026 delivery guidance to 10,400–10,700 units [1][2][3][4]. The company projects an average delivered price per home between $985,000 and $1,000,000 for fiscal 2026 [1][2][4], with social media, retail investor sentiment, and analyst consensus generally bullish as of mid-2026 [5][6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand...housingwire.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)investors.tollbrothers.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers targets 10,400-10,700 deliveries in fiscal 2026 while raising full-year guidance (NYSE:TOL) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers (TOL) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 97/100 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  6. 6Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) Sentiment | GoodMoatgoodmoat.com
  7. 7Toll Brothers Market Sentiment - Benzingabenzinga.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 52 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score67Caution
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score52Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Outcome is hard to influenceStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality5
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
95Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 4.0c slippage (~4% of a 89c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 10400–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10500–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 19, 2026

5. How does Toll Brothers' projected fiscal 2026 delivery growth compare to that of key competitors like Lennar and D.R. Horton?

Toll Brothers 2026 Deliveries10,400 to 10,700 units [1][2][3]
Lennar 2026 Deliveries82,000 to 83,000 units [4][5]
D.R. Horton 2026 Deliveries83,800 to 84,300 units [6][7]
Toll Brothers' projected deliveries are considerably lower than key competitors. For fiscal year 2026, Toll Brothers anticipates home deliveries to range between 10,400 and 10,700 units [1][2][3]. In comparison, Lennar has adjusted its forecast for fiscal 2026 home deliveries to approximately 82,000 to 83,000 units [4][5]. D.R. Horton projects its fiscal 2026 home deliveries, specifically homes closed, to be between 83,800 and 84,300 units [6][7].
Direct delivery growth rate comparisons are largely unfeasible. Specific information regarding projected fiscal 2026 delivery growth rates for Toll Brothers or D.R. Horton is not available in the provided research, making a direct comparison of delivery growth percentages across all three companies unfeasible. Lennar initially expected a growth of about 3% in deliveries for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025 but later moderated this outlook during the fiscal year [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  4. 4Lennar Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.lennar.com
  5. 5Lennar Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results - Jun 11, 2026newsroom.lennar.com
  6. 6D.R. Horton, Inc., America's Builder, Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Earnings and Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.45 Per Share – D.R. Hortoninvestor.drhorton.com
  7. 7dr horton, inc., america's builder, reports fiscal 2026 third...investor.drhorton.com
  8. 8Q4-2025 LEN Earnings Call Transcriptinvestors.lennar.com
  9. 9Lennar targets margin stability with operational efficiency and steady volumehousingwire.com

6. What is the projected contribution of the May 2026 Buffington Homes acquisition to Toll Brothers' total home deliveries for fiscal year 2026?

Projected Buffington Homes deliveries for FY2026Approximately 50 homes (remainder of FY2026) [1][2]
Toll Brothers total home deliveries for FY2026Not available [1][2]
Buffington Homes' contribution to total FY2026 deliveriesCannot be determined from available data [1][2]
Buffington Homes acquisition projects 50 deliveries for fiscal year 2026. Toll Brothers management anticipates approximately 50 home deliveries specifically from its newly acquired Buffington Homes of Arkansas for the remainder of fiscal year 2026 [1][2].
Total home deliveries for fiscal year 2026 are undisclosed. The available research does not provide information regarding Toll Brothers' total home deliveries for fiscal year 2026 [1][2]. Consequently, the percentage or specific fractional contribution of the Buffington Homes acquisition to the overall total for that fiscal year cannot be determined from the available data [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)investors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

7. How might significant shifts in mortgage rates during the second half of 2026 impact Toll Brothers' ability to meet its revised delivery guidance?

FY26 Delivery Guidance10,400–10,700 units (as of Q2 2026 earnings report in May 2026) [1][2]
Homes from backlog neededApproximately 4,100 (in second half of 2026) [2]
Spec homes to sell/settle neededRoughly 2,000 (in second half of 2026) [2]
Toll Brothers updated its full-year fiscal 2026 delivery guidance, noting luxury buyers' rate resilience. During its Q2 2026 earnings report in May 2026, Toll Brothers revised its full-year fiscal 2026 delivery guidance to a range of 10,400–10,700 units [1][2]. Company management stated that their luxury consumer base generally experiences less impact from mortgage rate fluctuations [2][3][4]. As of May 2026, no changes in rate sensitivity had been observed to affect their business or their capacity to sell homes early in the construction process [2][3][4].
Meeting delivery goals requires closing backlog and selling spec homes. To achieve its full-year delivery target, Toll Brothers needs to close approximately 4,100 homes from its existing backlog and sell or settle roughly 2,000 spec homes during the second half of 2026 [2]. Mortgage-rate and forward-commitment programs have been utilized primarily as tools to drive traffic, rather than serving as major contributors to overall sales volume [5][6][7][8][9][10].
Analysts express concern over rising rates impacting future sales. Despite management's current observations, analysts have identified execution and external risks, particularly stemming from potential increases in mortgage rates [2]. A significant rise in mortgage rates during the second half of 2026 could lead to softer traffic and pressure on absorption rates [5][6][7][8][9][10]. While a sharp increase might impede the company's ability to reach the higher end of its 10,400–10,700 guidance range, it is considered less likely to prevent deliveries near the midpoint, assuming current demand persists. The main concern revolves around whether rate volatility will sufficiently alter buyer urgency, potentially slowing sales conversion later in the year [1][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand...housingwire.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)investors.tollbrothers.com
  5. 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  6. 6www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  7. 7www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  8. 8www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  9. 9www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  10. 10www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com

8. What do recent U.S. Census Bureau new home sales data indicate about housing demand trends in Toll Brothers' key luxury markets for the remainder of 2026?

FY2026 Delivery Guidance10,400 to 10,700 homes [1][2][3][4]
Homes from Backlog (FY2026)Approximately 4,100 homes [2][3][4]
Spec Homes NeededApproximately 2,000 homes [2][3][4]
Toll Brothers' luxury segment shows strong demand despite broader market fluctuations. In mid-2026, the overall U.S. new home market experienced fluctuations in sales rates and high inventory levels [5][6]. However, Toll Brothers has reported resilient demand within its luxury housing segment. This segment primarily serves an affluent customer base, which is typically less sensitive to general affordability concerns [5][6][2].
Strong performance led Toll Brothers to raise 2026 delivery guidance. Following a strong second-quarter performance and sustained demand in its luxury segment, Toll Brothers has increased its fiscal 2026 full-year delivery guidance to a range of 10,400 to 10,700 homes [1][2][3][4]. To achieve these updated targets for the remainder of fiscal 2026, the company expects to close approximately 4,100 homes from its existing backlog and anticipates needing to sell and settle roughly 2,000 spec homes [2][3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand...housingwire.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)investors.tollbrothers.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers targets 10,400-10,700 deliveries in fiscal 2026 while raising full-year guidance (NYSE:TOL) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  5. 5MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES, JUNE 2026census.gov
  6. 6MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES, MAY 2026census.gov

9. What evidence from Toll Brothers' quarterly earnings reports and backlog data supports the analyst consensus for deliveries exceeding 10,400 units in fiscal 2026?

Fiscal 2026 Delivery Guidance10,400 to 10,700 units [1][2][3][4]
Q2 2026 Backlog Homes Expected to Close in H2 FY26Approximately 4,100 units [4][5]
Quick Move-in Homes to Sell in H2 FY26Approximately 2,000 units [4][5]
Toll Brothers has increased its fiscal 2026 delivery guidance to 10,400 units. The company updated its fiscal 2026 delivery guidance to a range of 10,400 to 10,700 units, as reported in its Q2 2026 earnings on May 19, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This revised guidance reflects robust demand in the luxury housing market and clear visibility into the company's backlog, establishing a solid foundation for deliveries to exceed 10,400 units in fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][4].
Existing backlog and new quick move-in homes support delivery goals. A significant portion of this delivery target is supported by the existing backlog. Management confirmed that approximately 4,100 of the 5,394 homes in the Q2 2026 ending backlog are anticipated to close during the second half of fiscal 2026 [4][5]. To fully achieve the updated guidance, the company also plans to sell and settle approximately 2,000 additional quick move-in homes within the same period [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsglobenewswire.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand...housingwire.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers beats Q2 estimates despite lower revenue YoY, shares edge higher By Investing.cominvesting.com
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: Toll Brothers Q2 2026 earnings beat expectations By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Toll Brothers projects fiscal year 2026 total deliveries of 10,400 to 10,700 homes, with an average price per home between $985,000 and $1,000,000 [1][2]. Key financial KPIs for fiscal 2026 include an adjusted home sales gross margin of approximately 26.1% and SG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenue of approximately 10.1% [2][3].
Bullish catalysts for performance include resilient luxury demand, effective operational leverage, and community count growth [4][2][5][6].
Bearish risks encompass interest rate sensitivity, high levels of homebuyer incentives, construction cost pressures, and a potential slowdown in the high-end housing market [4][2][5][6]. The company's fiscal year ends October 31 [7]. The third quarter earnings conference call is scheduled for August 19, 2026, and fourth quarter results are generally announced in early December [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 09, 2027
  • Closes: March 09, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers: Better Execution, But Still Not Enough For A Buy (NYSE:TOL) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall Stsimplywall.st
  6. 6How Toll Brothers’ New Luxury Communities and Design Studio Expansion Could Shape TOL’s Investor Storyfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Financial FAQsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  8. 8Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com