Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Fares expected above $185, grounded by Q2 2026 average of $225.61.
- Q3 2026 guidance indicates continued fare strength with robust demand.
- Higher fares likely due to expected 17.5-19.5% increase in Q3 RASM.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $210 | 91.0% | 87.6% | Market higher by 3.4pp |
| Above $225 | 56.0% | 58.0% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Above $220 | 73.0% | 71.7% | Market higher by 1.3pp |
| Above $215 | 86.0% | 79.8% | Market higher by 6.2pp |
| Above $205 | 90.0% | 87.6% | Market higher by 2.4pp |
Current Context
Sources (6)
- 1SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2Southwest Airlines posts record Q2 2026 revenue | LUV 8...stocktitan.net
- 3Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 4Southwest Airlines Forecast Falls Short Amid Fuel Surgestockxpo.com
- 5Southwest Airline lowers 2026 profit floor as fuel costs...reuters.com
- 6Southwest Airlines (LUV) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $190
📈 July 29, 2026: 27.0pp spike
Price increased from 68.0% to 95.0%
Outcome: Above $185
📈 July 28, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 85.0%
Sources (6)
- 1Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 2Southwest Airlines Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record...finance.yahoo.com
- 3Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance - Ticker Reporttickerreport.com
- 4Southwest Airline lowers 2026 profit floor as fuel costs blunt pricing gains | 95.5 WIFCwifc.com
- 5SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 6Southwest Airlines posts record Q2 2026 revenue | LUV 8...stocktitan.net
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on Southwest Airlines' average passenger fare in Q3. For each specific contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the fare is above the stated dollar amount, while a "No" resolution occurs if the fare is equal to or below that amount. The market ends on October 21 at 4:00 PM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $200 | $0.96 | $0.09 | 95% |
| Above $185 | $0.99 | $0.06 | 93% |
| Above $195 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 92% |
| Above $190 | $0.99 | $0.08 | 91% |
| Above $210 | $0.91 | $0.12 | 91% |
| Above $205 | $0.93 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Above $215 | $0.86 | $0.18 | 86% |
| Above $220 | $0.75 | $0.29 | 73% |
| Above $225 | $0.58 | $0.47 | 56% |
Market Discussion
Southwest Airlines announced an average passenger fare of $225.61 for the second quarter of 2026 [1][2][3]. For Q3 2026, the company forecasted a Revenue Per Available Seat Mile (RASM) increase of 17.5% to 19.5% year-over-year, but did not provide a specific average passenger fare forecast [1][4]. Following the Q2 2026 earnings announcement, Southwest's stock experienced negative market sentiment due to a Q3 2026 earnings outlook that fell below analyst expectations, driven by rising fuel costs [4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2Southwest Airlines posts record Q2 2026 revenue | LUV 8...stocktitan.net
- 3SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY - AOLaol.com
- 4Southwest Airlines shares fall as weak Q3 outlook overshadows earnings beat | NYSE:LUVproactiveinvestors.com
- 5LUV retreats nearly 6% as lower earnings outlook and technical weakness drive sellingtradersunion.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What macroeconomic indicators and jet fuel price trends during Q3 2026 could most impact Southwest's pricing power?
| Projected Q3 2026 Jet Fuel Price | $3.70-$3.75/gallon [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Average Passenger Fare Increase | 20.9% to $225.61 [4][5][1] |
| Forecasted Q3 2026 Unit Revenue Growth | 17.5%-19.5% [1][3][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1Southwest Airline lowers 2026 profit floor as fuel costs blunt pricing gains | 95.5 WIFCwifc.com
- 2U.S. Jet Fuel Costs Soar as Iran War Hits Airlines Againfinance.yahoo.com
- 3Southwest Airlines CEO warns rising fuel costs will dampen EPS - AOLaol.com
- 4Forecast adjustments and rising fuel costs will weigh on the US aviation industry in the second half of 2026 – Aviation.Directaviation.direct
- 5Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 6Southwest Airlines Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record...finance.yahoo.com
7. How did Southwest's Q2 2026 average fare of $225.61 compare to those reported by competitors like Delta and American Airlines?
| Southwest Q2 2026 Average Fare | $225.61 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Southwest Q2 2025 Average Fare | $186.65 [1][2][3][4] |
| Southwest Q2 2026 Fare Increase YoY | 20.9% [1][2][3][4] |
Sources (12)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Southwest Airlines (LUV) 2Q 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 3Southwest Airlines Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record...finance.yahoo.com
- 4Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 earnings beat, Q3 forecast missesqz.com
- 5Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 6Delta Air Lines Announces June Quarter 2026 Financial...ir.delta.com
- 7dal-20260630sec.gov
- 8Delta Air Lines Announces June Quarter 2026 Financial...prnewswire.com
- 9Operating revenues: Passenger $ 15,214 $ 13,123 15.9 $ 27,709 $ 24,514 13.0 Cargo 273 211 29.7 487 400 21.7 Other 1,248 1,058 17.9 2,451 2,029 20.8 Total operating revenues 16,735 14,392 16.3 30,647 26,943 13.7 Operating expenses: Aircraft fuel and related taxes 4,881 2,663 83.3 7,809 5,250 48.7 Salaries, wages and benefits 4,639 4,382 5.9 9,314 8,604 8.2 Regional expenses: Regional operating expenses 1,344 1,250 7.5 2,656 2,523 5.3 Regional depreciation and amortization 91 81 13.1 183 160 14.3 Maintenance, materials and repairs 1,027 927 10.8 2,008 1,848 8.7 Other rent and landing fees 976 894 9.2 1,867 1,720 8.5 Aircraft rent 308 303 1.8 617 600 2.9 Selling expenses 603 535 12.7 1,110 985 12.7 Depreciation and amortization 478 476 0.4 953 944 1.0 Special items, net 7 47 (85.1) 21 118 (82.4) Other 1,935 1,699 13.8 3,704 3,327 11.3 Total operating expenses 16,289 13,257 22.9 30,242 26,079 16.0 Operating income 446 1,135 (60.7) 405 864 (53.1) Nonoperating income (expense): Interest income 74 100 (25.8) 130 194 (33.3) Interest expense, net (409) (433) (5.5) (807) (861) (6.4) Other income (expense), net (4) 36 nm (97) (8) nm Total nonoperating expense, net (339) (297) 14.2 (774) (675) 14.7 Income (loss) before income taxes 107 838 (87.2) (369) 189 nm Income tax provision (benefit) 36 239 (84.9) (58) 63 nm Net income (loss) $ 71 $ 599 (88.2) $ (311) $ 126 nm Earnings (loss) per common share: Basic $ 0.11 $ 0.91 $ (0.47) $ 0.19 Diluted $ 0.11 $ 0.91 $ (0.47) $ 0.19 Weighted average shares outstanding (in thousands): Basic 662,190 660,127 661,685 659,504 Diluted 662,613 660,367 661,685 660,523 Note: Percent change may not recalculate due to rounding. (1) Not meaningful or greater than 100% change. American Airlines Group Inc. Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions, except share and per share amounts) (Unaudited)s202.q4cdn.com
- 10Documentsec.gov
- 11American Airlines continues to execute on commercial priorities, delivering highest quarterly revenue in company history - American Airlines Newsroomnews.aa.com
- 12American Airlines continues to execute on commercial...news.aa.com
8. What do the latest Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) airfare reports indicate about domestic travel price trends leading into Q3 2026?
| Average U.S. domestic airfare Q1 2026 | $428 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Southwest average passenger fare Q2 2026 | $225.61 [3][4] |
| Southwest RASM increase Q3 2026 guidance | 17.5% to 19.5% year-over-year [3][5][4] |
Sources (8)
- 1First Quarter 2026 Average Air Fare Increases 4.7% from...bts.gov
- 2U.S. First Quarter 2026 Average Air Fare Increases 4.7% from Fourth Quarter 2025travelindustrywire.com
- 3Southwest Airlines posts record Q2 2026 revenue | LUV 8...stocktitan.net
- 4Southwest Airlines Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record...finance.yahoo.com
- 5Southwest Airline lowers 2026 profit floor as fuel costs blunt pricing gains | 95.5 WIFCwifc.com
- 6US Airfares in Q1 2026: What the Data Shows about US Airfare Increasesoag.com
- 7Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 8Daybreak Weekend: AI's Job Impact, NATO Summit, China Eyes New Eco Data | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...youtube.com
9. What is the consensus analyst forecast for Southwest's Q3 2026 Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM), and how does it compare to the company's official guidance?
| Q3 2026 RASM YoY Increase Guidance | 17.5% to 19.5% (Southwest Airlines) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Earnings Guidance | $0.50–$0.75 per share (Southwest Airlines) [4][5][6] |
| Analyst Consensus Q3 2026 Adjusted Earnings | $0.82 or $0.77 per share (various estimates) [4][5][6] |
Sources (7)
- 1SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY - AOLaol.com
- 2SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 3Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 4Southwest Airlines Cuts 2026 Profit Forecast as Fuel Costs Surge July 23 | Meykameyka.com
- 5Southwest Airlines Lowers 2026 Earnings Outlook Amid...intellectia.ai
- 6Southwest Airlines Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record...finance.yahoo.com
- 7Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) Q2 FY2026 earnings...finance.yahoo.com
10. What level of holiday travel booking momentum during Q3 2026 would signal strong enough demand for Southwest to maintain fare discipline?
| Q3 2026 Booking Status | 65% booked (as of July 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Yield Increase | 24% higher year-over-year [1] |
| Average Q2 2026 Passenger Fare | $225.61 [2] |
Sources (6)
- 1https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_LUV_2026-07-23finance.biggo.com
- 2SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 3Southwest's New Fees and Fare Hikes Offset $889M Fuel Billskift.com
- 4Southwest aims to maintain higher fares even if jet fuel prices fall - FlightGlobalflightglobal.com
- 5Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 16th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 6Southwest Airline lowers 2026 profit floor as fuel costs blunt pricing gains | 106.5 The Buzz1065thebuzz.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 19, 2027
- Closes: February 19, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; EARNINGS POWER ON FULL DISPLAY - AOLaol.com
- 3Southwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; Earnings Power on Full Display | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 4Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance - Ticker Reporttickerreport.com
- 5Southwest Airlines - Strategic Analysis and Outlook Report 2026 (Updated)aviationoutlook.com
- 6Southwest Airlines posts record Q2 2026 revenue | LUV Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 7Survey: Travel concerns could 'undermine' World Cup potential - ESPNespn.com
- 8ESPN.com - Cost of the 2026 World Cup: How much a USMNT fan might spendespn.com
- 9Survey: Travel concerns could 'undermine' World Cup potential - ESPNafrica.espn.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 18 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXLUV-26JULFARE-240: NO (Jul 22, 2026)
- KXLUV-26JULFARE-237: NO (Jul 22, 2026)
- KXLUV-26JULFARE-234: NO (Jul 22, 2026)
- KXLUV-26JULSEATS-60500000: NO (Jul 22, 2026)
- KXLUV-26JULSEATS-59500000: NO (Jul 22, 2026)