Urban Outfitters total stores in Q2
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): The model's probability for 'Above 810' decreased by -3.9pp, widening its edge over market.
- Overall model probability for 'Above 806' dropped by -3.7pp, with its edge widening -3.7pp.
- Confidence score increased by +1.0pp; model raised probabilities for 'Above 812', compressing that edge.
- Total stores likely exceed 806, supported by official FY2027 expansion guidance.
- The 814.5 store Q2 estimate suggests total stores remain below 818.
- Anthropologie and Free People store growth drives measured expansion.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 818 | 5.0% | 3.9% | An estimated 814.5 stores for Q2 2027 from company guidance is below 818. |
| Above 806 | 90.0% | 84.8% | An estimated 814.5 stores for Q2 2027 from company guidance is above 806. |
| Above 808 | 77.0% | 67.8% | An estimated 814.5 stores for Q2 2027 from company guidance is above 808. |
| Above 812 | 32.0% | 24.7% | An estimated 814.5 stores for Q2 2027 from company guidance is above 812. |
| Above 810 | 52.0% | 41.6% | An estimated 814.5 stores for Q2 2027 from company guidance is above 810. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Contract details not available.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 806 | $0.94 | $0.09 | 90% |
| Above 808 | $0.79 | $0.23 | 77% |
| Above 810 | $0.57 | $0.48 | 52% |
| Above 812 | $0.32 | $0.74 | 32% |
| Above 814 | $0.17 | $0.89 | 17% |
| Above 816 | $0.12 | $0.94 | 11% |
| Above 818 | $0.07 | $0.97 | 5% |
Market Discussion
As of the end of Q2 FY2026 (July 31, 2025), Urban Outfitters, Inc. reported a total of 765 stores, consisting of 756 company-owned and 9 franchisee-owned locations [^][^]. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company announced plans for a net store growth, expecting to open approximately 69 new stores and close around 17, primarily expanding its FP Movement, Free People, and Anthropologie brands [^][^][^].
4. What are Urban Outfitters' official store expansion or closure plans for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, as stated in recent SEC filings and earnings calls?
| Updated FY27 Total New Stores (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) | Approximately 54 stores [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Updated FY27 Total Store Closures (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) | 19 stores [^][^][^] |
| FY27 Urban Outfitters Brand New Stores | 8 stores [^][^] |
5. What has been the quarterly net change in Urban Outfitters' total store count over the past eight quarters, and what growth rate does this trend suggest for mid-2027?
| Net store change (Q1 FY25-Q4 FY26) | -11 stores [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Planned new stores (FY27) | 8 stores [^] |
| Total stores (Q4 FY26) | 253 [^] |
6. How do the store growth strategies and recent performance of Anthropologie, Free People, and the flagship Urban Outfitters brand compare?
| FP Movement Planned Stores | 21 stores (FY27) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropologie Planned Stores | 14 stores (FY27) [^][^] |
| Urban Outfitters Store Count | 252 stores (Q1 FY27) [^][^][^] |
7. What are the latest store count forecasts for Urban Outfitters for fiscal year 2027 from major equity research firms like Telsey Advisory Group and Jefferies?
| FY27 Total Year-End Store Count | 836 total stores (including franchisee-owned) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FY27 Net Store Increase | 43 stores (57 openings, 14 closures) [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2027 Prediction Market Expectation | Above 806-810 stores [^][^] |
8. How might macroeconomic forecasts for consumer spending and commercial real estate in North America impact URBN's store opening pace through Q2 2027?
| Planned FY2027 Store Openings | Approximately 54–57 new stores [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FY2027 Capital Expenditure for Retail Expansion | 40% of approximately $385 million [^][^][^] |
| Urban Outfitters Q1 FY2026 Comparable Sales Growth | 9.3% [^][^][^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 25, 2026
- Closes: September 25, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts for Urban Outfitters include the expansion of the Nuuly rental model, disciplined inventory management, and continued portfolio strength from Free People and Anthropologie [^] .
- Trigger: These factors represent potential drivers for upside performance.
- Trigger: Conversely, bearish risks center on tariff-related cost pressures, freight costs, and sensitivity to discretionary consumer spending in a high-cost environment [^] [^] .
- Trigger: These elements present headwinds for the company's financial outlook.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXURBN-26MAYSTOR-P801: NO (May 20, 2026)
- KXURBN-26MAYSTOR-806: NO (May 20, 2026)
- KXURBN-26MAYSTOR-804: NO (May 20, 2026)
- KXURBN-26MAYSTOR-802: NO (May 20, 2026)
- KXURBN-26MAYSTOR-800: YES (May 20, 2026)