Short Answer

The model assigns a 77.0% probability to Palantir's total customers in Q3 2026 being Above 1060, sharply divergent from the market's 0.0%. This forecast is driven by management commentary anticipating continued commercial segment growth, particularly from AIP Bootcamps, following 1,049 customers reported in Q2 2026.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which resolves based on Palantir's total customer count for Q3 2026, experienced a single, significant price movement. On August 4, 2026, the probability spiked 51.0 percentage points, from an opening price of 1.0% to 52.0%. This repricing was a direct reaction to Palantir's Q2 2026 financial results, which were announced on August 3. That report established a baseline of 1,049 total customers, recalibrating expectations for the Q3 figure and causing the sharp upward adjustment in the contract's valuation.
The price action occurred on zero traded volume. This indicates the price shift reflects an initial pricing adjustment, likely by a market maker, rather than a consensus formed through active trading. The lack of volume means there is no market-tested conviction behind the current 52.0% level. As a result, there are no established support or resistance levels. The current price suggests a slightly better than even chance that Palantir's customer count will exceed the market's threshold in Q3, but this sentiment is unconfirmed by any transactional flow. The market remains highly illiquid.
  • Palantir customers appear above 1060, following expected commercial growth via AIP Bootcamps.
  • A total customer count above 1070 reflects Palantir's strong U.S. commercial expansion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 1130 13.0% 3.0% Market higher by 10.0pp
Above 1150 7.0% 1.0% Market higher by 6.0pp
Above 1060 95.0% 77.0% Market higher by 18.0pp
Above 1140 4.0% 2.0% Market higher by 2.0pp
Above 1100 40.0% 57.0% Model higher by 17.0pp

Current Context

Palantir has not yet reported Q3 2026 financial results. As of August 4, 2026, the company has not released its Q3 figures [1]. These results are anticipated in early November 2026, with an expected announcement date of November 2, 2026 [1].
Palantir's Q2 2026 report detailed 1,049 total customers. The company last reported its Q2 2026 financial results on August 3, 2026 [2]. That report indicated a total customer count of 1,049, with commercial customers numbering 870 [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Earnings: Latest Report...public.com
  2. 2Palantir Closes 220 Deals Worth At Least $1 Million As Revenue Jumps 93% For Q2 2026pulse2.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 04, 2026: 69.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 70.0%

Outcome: Above 1100

What happened: The primary driver of the 69.0 percentage point spike in the "Palantir total customers in Q3" prediction market on August 04, 2026, was the release of Palantir's Q2 2026 financial results on August 3, 2026 [1][2][3]. The report announced a total customer count of 1,049 as of Q2 2026, a 93% year-over-year revenue increase, and 220 new deals [4]. Although the Q2 count was slightly below 1,100, the strong growth, particularly a 149% surge in U.S. commercial revenue, and raised full-year guidance indicated an accelerating customer acquisition rate, making the "Above 1100" outcome for Q3 highly probable [4][2][3]. This traditional news directly preceded and coincided with a 14% rise in Palantir's stock and the prediction market spike [2]. No significant social media activity or viral narratives leading or coinciding with this price movement were identified in the provided sources, making it mostly irrelevant.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Palantir Reports Q2 2026 U.S. Comm Revenue Growth of...finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Palantir Raises Full-Year Forecast as U.S. Enterprise AI Demand Drives 93% Revenue Surgenile1.com
  3. 3Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Highlights: U.S. Commercial Revenue Surges 149% Year-over-Year Far Above Expectations, Full-Year Revenue Guidance Raised Significantly to $8.150–$8.158 Billion, AI Sovereignty Narrative Strongly Underpins Outlook | Bitget Newsbitget.com
  4. 4Palantir Closes 220 Deals Worth At Least $1 Million As Revenue Jumps 93% For Q2 2026pulse2.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market, "Palantir total customers in Q3," resolves YES if Palantir's total customers in Q3 exceed the specific number stated in the contract (e.g., above 1100). It resolves NO if the total customer count is at or below that number. The market ends on November 2, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 3, 2027. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided text.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1060 $0.99 $0.11 95%
Above 1070 $0.95 $0.15 90%
Above 1100 $0.49 $0.61 40%
Above 1110 $0.33 $0.77 30%
Above 1130 $0.16 $0.94 13%
Above 1150 $0.08 $0.99 7%
Above 1140 $0.11 $0.99 4%
Above 1080 $0.91 $0.19 0%
Above 1090 $0.79 $0.31 0%
Above 1120 $0.22 $0.88 0%

Market Discussion

As of Q2 2026, Palantir reported a total of 1,049 customers, including 653 U.S. commercial customers, alongside significant revenue growth and raised full-year 2026 guidance [1][2][3]. Public prediction markets and professional trader discussions following the Q2 results primarily focused on whether Palantir would exceed its aggressive revenue targets, with options traders pricing in a potential 12% stock movement [3][4]. The discussions did not explicitly detail predictions for Q3 total customer count.

Sources (4)
  1. 1Palantir (PLTR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  2. 2Palantir Technologies (PLTR) - Net Dollar Retention Rate (Q…ycharts.com
  3. 3Palantir Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Alex Karp Say? - Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLT - Benzingabenzinga.com
  4. 4Here's what 1,000+ professional traders were actually betting on for Palantir this week before today's article hit the wires. | CrowdWisdom Tradinglinkedin.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 63 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score35High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score63Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 1,130” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
43Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract · 9 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113043
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
67Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

1 contract · 9 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113067
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 9 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1130100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
35High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 43 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 24.6c slippage (~224% of a 11c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

9 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113043Market scoreLiquidity43Move quality67Rule clarity100
Why 43
Liquidity
43 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
67 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 18, 2026

6. What are the consensus and range of Wall Street analyst estimates for Palantir's total customer count for Q3 2026?

Full-year 2026 Total Customer Consensus1,166 (S&P Global / Visible Alpha) [1]
Total Customers (Q1 2026)1,007 [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
U.S. Commercial Customers (Q2 2026 TTM)653 [1][3][2]
Wall Street lacks a direct Q3 2026 Palantir customer count estimate. As of August 4, 2026, a specific consensus or range from Wall Street analysts for Palantir's total customer count in Q3 2026 was not directly available [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. This is primarily because the company had reported its Q2 2026 earnings just one day prior, on August 3, 2026, and had not yet released Q3 2026 customer count expectations or associated analyst estimates for this key performance indicator [1][2].
Full-year 2026 consensus provides a relevant customer count proxy. While a quarter-specific estimate could not be verified, the closest relevant consensus identified was a full-year 2026 total customer estimate of 1,166 from S&P Global / Visible Alpha [1]. Palantir's most recently reported total customer base stood at 1,007 in Q1 2026 [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Additionally, the company reported 653 U.S. commercial customers for the trailing twelve months in Q2 2026 [1][3][2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Business Update Q2 2026investors.palantir.com
  2. 2Palantir Deep Dive: Q2 Financial Validation of AIP Commercialization and Government Orders404kresearch.substack.com
  3. 3Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call...Octagon Agentgurufocus.com
  4. 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.businessinsider.comOctagon Agentbusinessinsider.com
  7. 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  8. 8techcrunch.comOctagon Agent

7. Which major government or enterprise contracts announced by Palantir during Q3 2026 are likely to convert to 'total customers' by the end of the quarter?

Q3 2026 Customer ConversionNo major government or enterprise contracts reported as converting to total customers [1][2][3]
Current Quarter PeriodJuly 1 to September 30, 2026 [4][1][5]
Total Customers (Q1 2026)1,007 [6]
No Palantir contracts were reported converting to customers in Q3 2026. No major government or enterprise contracts announced by Palantir were formally reported as converting to 'total customers' specifically during the third quarter of 2026 [1][2][3]. Palantir Technologies is currently in the early part of this quarter, which spans from July 1 to September 30, 2026 [4][1][5].
Palantir's total customer count reached 1,007 by Q1 2026. The company's 'total customers' metric, representing its overall customer count, grew to 1,007 by the end of Q1 2026 [6]. While Palantir reported its Q2 2026 financial results on August 3, 2026, data specifically on Q2 2026 customer counts were not explicitly disclosed in the initial earnings press release [4][6].
The company focuses on 'AIP bootcamp' to convert pilots. Palantir continues its focus on the 'AIP bootcamp' strategy to convert pilots into long-term customer relationships [1][2][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Q2 2026 | Letter to Shareholderspalantir.com
  3. 3Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Recap of $PLTR Outlookthestreet.com
  4. 4Palantir Deep Dive: Q2 Financial Validation of AIP Commercialization and Government Orders404kresearch.substack.com
  5. 5Palantir Reports Q2 2026 U.S. Comm Revenue Growth of...businesswire.com
  6. 6Palantir Statistics 2026: Revenue, Growth, Customers & AI Dominance Data - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com

8. How does Palantir's recent customer growth compare to a key competitor like Snowflake in their most recent comparable reporting periods?

Palantir U.S. Commercial Customers (Q2 2026)653 [1][2][3]
Palantir U.S. Commercial Customer YOY Growth (Q2 2026)35% [1][2][3]
Snowflake Total Customers (Fiscal Q1 2027)13,912 [4][5]
Palantir reported significant growth in its U.S. commercial customer base. In the second quarter of 2026, Palantir's U.S. commercial customer count reached 653, marking a 35% year-over-year increase and a 6% sequential growth [1][2][3]. This customer expansion coincided with a substantial 149% revenue growth within the same segment, indicating strong development within its existing clientele [6][1][2].
Snowflake demonstrated substantial customer additions in its most recent fiscal quarter. As of its fiscal Q1 2027, which concluded on April 30, 2026, Snowflake reported a total customer count of 13,912 [4][5]. During that reporting period, the company successfully added 616 net new customers [4][5].
Directly comparing customer growth between the two companies presents difficulties. This is primarily due to Palantir's reporting of U.S. commercial customer counts, whereas Snowflake provides an aggregate total customer count across all its operations [6]. Currently, there is no official public guidance available for Palantir's 'total customers' for Q3 2026 [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Palantir Deep Dive: Q2 Financial Validation of AIP Commercialization and Government Orders404kresearch.substack.com
  2. 2Business Update Q2 2026investors.palantir.com
  3. 3Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call...gurufocus.com
  4. 4Palantir vs. Snowflake: Only 1 AI Software Stock Looks...barchart.com
  5. 5Snowflake Explodes 37% on $6 Billion Amazon Deal as CEO Calls Q1 an AI "Inflection Point" - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  6. 6Palantir - Q1 2026 Business Updatemlq.ai
  7. 7Palantir posts 93% revenue growth in Q2 2026 | PLTR 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  8. 8Palantir Reports Q2 2026 U.S. Comm Revenue Growth of...finance.yahoo.com

9. What is the historical growth trend for Palantir's commercial versus government customer segments, and which is poised to drive growth in Q3 2026?

Government Revenue Share DeclineFrom ~58% (2021) to ~54% (2025) [1][2][3][4]
Q2 2026 US Commercial Revenue Growth149% year-over-year to $764 million [5]
FY 2026 US Commercial Revenue GuidanceExceed $3.424 billion (at least 134% annual growth) [6][5]
Palantir is shifting from government reliance to commercial growth. Historically, Palantir's revenue was primarily generated from government contracts; however, a notable transition toward commercial segments has been observed since 2023. This strategic shift is reflected in the declining government share of total revenue, which decreased from approximately 58% in 2021 to about 54% in 2025 [1][2][3][4]. The U.S. commercial segment is specifically expected to drive growth in Q3 2026.
Commercial revenue significantly outpaced government growth in Q2 2026. During this quarter, U.S. commercial revenue experienced substantial expansion, increasing 149% year-over-year to reach $764 million. This performance exceeded that of U.S. government revenue, which grew 90% year-over-year to $809 million. The company's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is identified as the main catalyst for the commercial segment's expansion, evidenced by an increase in U.S. commercial customer count and a 153% year-over-year rise in total contract value (TCV) in Q2 2026 [5][6].
U.S. commercial is poised to lead growth into Q3 2026. Palantir has issued total revenue guidance for Q3 2026 between $2.160 billion and $2.164 billion, with the U.S. commercial segment projected to remain the primary growth engine. The full-year 2026 U.S. commercial revenue guidance was also increased to exceed $3.424 billion, representing an anticipated annual growth of at least 134% [6][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Palantir (PLTR) Revenue History: Quarterly Data (2020–2025) | Visuwirevisuwire.com
  2. 2Palantir Financials — revenue, government / commercial split, headcount, and R&D from SEC 10-K filingsmungomash.com
  3. 3Palantir Statistics 2026: Revenue, Growth, Customers & AI Dominance Data - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
  4. 4Palantir Business Model, Ontology Platform, and Competitive Moat Analysis | Chaos and Orderyoungju.dev
  5. 5Business Update Q2 2026investors.palantir.com
  6. 6Palantir Deep Dive: Q2 Financial Validation of AIP Commercialization and Government Orders404kresearch.substack.com

10. Based on management commentary from the Q2 2026 earnings call, what is the expected impact of AIP Bootcamps on new commercial customer acquisition in Q3 2026?

U.S. Commercial Customers (Q2 2026)653 [1]
U.S. Commercial Customer YoY Growth (Q2 2026)35% [1]
Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance$2.160 billion to $2.164 billion [2]
Management did not provide specific Q3 new commercial customer predictions. While an explicit quantitative prediction for new commercial customer acquisitions in Q3 2026 was not provided during the Q2 2026 earnings call [3], management underscored the impact of the AIP Bootcamp strategy. This strategy effectively drove replicable deployments, contributing to a 35% year-over-year increase in U.S. commercial customers, totaling 653 in Q2 2026 [1].
Future growth targets rely on continued AIP Bootcamp investments. Management has set a goal to sustain at least the current U.S. commercial growth rate for the next 18 months [3]. Continued investment in AIP Bootcamps is considered crucial for supporting this objective [3].
Palantir issued revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter. Separately, Palantir also issued revenue guidance for Q3 2026, anticipating figures between $2.160 billion and $2.164 billion [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Palantir Deep Dive: Q2 Financial Validation of AIP Commercialization and Government Orders404kresearch.substack.com
  2. 2Palantir tops Q2 2026 forecasts, shares jump after hoursinvesting.com
  3. 3PLTR Q2 FY2026 earnings call - BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Palantir's Q3 2026 earnings are expected on November 2, 2026, representing a near-term catalyst [1][2]. For Q3 2026, the company guided for revenue between $2.16 billion and $2.164 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion [3].
Market probability shifts may be driven by accelerated Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) adoption, continued momentum in the U.S. commercial sector, and strategic partnerships [4][5][6]. These partnerships include a Sovereign AI operating system initiative with Nvidia and an integration with the Zeta Global data cloud [4][5]. The bullish argument points to sustained high revenue growth and cash flow expansion [6]. This is supported by an accelerating demand that saw U.S. commercial customer count rise to 653 in Q2 2026, alongside strong commercial bookings and remaining deal value [7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. At the end of Q2 2026, Palantir reported a total of 1,049 customers, including 870 commercial customers [14]. However, Q3 2026 total customer figures have not yet been reported [8][9][10][11][12][13].
Bearish concerns counter these drivers, focusing on existing valuation multiples, potential growth deceleration, and a notable reliance on the U.S. market [6][15].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 03, 2027
  • Closes: March 03, 2027
Sources (15)
  1. 1Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Earnings: Latest Report...public.com
  2. 2Palantir Earnings Date & Event Calendarwallstreethorizon.com
  3. 3Palantir (PLTR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  4. 4Palantir Stock: What Karp’s AI Sovereignty Bet Means for Investors in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5Palantir's Valuation Problem Just Met 2 New Growth...investing.com
  6. 6Palantir Stock: The $1 Trillion Thesis Is Intact After The Pullback (NASDAQ:PLTR) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  7. 7The Trillion-Dollar Industries AI Is Disrupting: Voice, Law & the End of the Billable Houryoutube.com
  8. 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9www.businessinsider.comOctagon Agentbusinessinsider.com
  10. 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  11. 11techcrunch.comOctagon Agent
  12. 12seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  13. 13www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  14. 14Palantir Closes 220 Deals Worth At Least $1 Million As Revenue Jumps 93% For Q2 2026pulse2.com
  15. 15Palantir's August 3 Reckoning: A Short-Seller's Bet Collides With a Cash-Flow Test | NewsCasenewscase.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series

Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-1075: NO (Aug 03, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-1065: NO (Aug 03, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1100: NO (Aug 03, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1090: NO (Aug 03, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1080: NO (Aug 03, 2026)