Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in Q3

monday.com anticipates a slight Net Dollar Retention decline by fiscal year 2026. Management guidance in H1 2026 projects a decrease in the overall Net Dollar Retention (NDR) rate by the end of fiscal year 2026 ^[1][2][3]. This expected trend is primarily attributed to the company "lapping" the pricing actions implemented in 2024, which had previously boosted NDR by 1-2 percentage points ^[1][2][3]. While expansion and new product adoption continue to serve as positive drivers, management indicates these factors are not expected to fully offset the "pricing carryover" effect as the company anniversaries these actions in 2026 ^[1][3].

Management expressed optimism for retention among larger customers despite no Q3 disclosure. For the Q3 2026 period, a specific Net Dollar Retention figure for the >$100k ARR cohort has not been disclosed by management ^[1][3]. Nevertheless, management conveyed optimism concerning retention and expansion within their larger customer base. They emphasized that the >$100k ARR cohort is increasingly adopting multi-year deals and utilizing multiple product solutions, which contributes to stability within this particular customer segment ^[1][3].

For H2 2026, monday.com targets expansion revenue with an AI Work Platform. monday.com's key initiatives to boost expansion revenue within its >$100k ARR cohort involve transforming into an "AI Work Platform" ^[1][2]. This strategy includes deploying native AI agents and introducing a consumption-based "seats-plus-credits" pricing model ^[1][2][3][4]. The aim is to align customer spending with the value derived from AI agents, particularly for large enterprise customers ^[1][2].

AI integration focuses on incentives and external ecosystem connections. As part of this "AI Work Platform" strategy, monday.com is also offering incentives such as complementary AI packages ^[3]. Furthermore, it plans to integrate with external AI ecosystems via a Model Context Protocol and open APIs to ensure enterprise-grade governance and context-aware execution, thereby increasing AI usage in critical workflows ^[3][4].

Net dollar retention rate projects a temporary decline. Despite strong enterprise demand, the net dollar retention rate for the >$100k ARR cohort is projected to experience a temporary decline of 1-2% by the end of 2026 ^[5]. This expected decrease is primarily attributed to the "lapping" of prior pricing actions from 2024, rather than customer churn ^[5]. Management anticipates these pricing normalization effects may moderate this cohort's expansion in the short term ^[5].

monday.com's Net Dollar Retention shows strong performance, but analysts predict a slight decline. As of the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ending March 31, 2026, monday.com reported an overall Net Dollar Retention (NDR) of 110% ^[1]. For its customers generating over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), the NDR was even higher, at 115% ^[1]. Despite these robust figures, analyst projections anticipate a modest decrease of 1-2% in monday.com's overall NDR throughout fiscal year 2026, primarily attributed to the company cycling through prior pricing adjustments ^[4][5].

monday.com significantly outperforms Asana in large customer Net Dollar Retention. In contrast, Asana reported a dollar-based net retention rate of 96% for its customers spending $100,000 or more in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 ^[2][3]. This places monday.com's NDR for large customers considerably above that of Asana ^[4][2][6][3]. Asana's retention rate for its large customers has faced headwinds and subsequently stabilized at approximately the 96% mark in late 2025 and early 2026 ^[4][2][6][3].

monday.com reported strong Q1 2026 metrics for large ARR customers. For the customer cohort generating over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), monday.com reported a net dollar retention (NDR) rate of 115% in its Q1 2026 financial statements ^[1][2][3]. This high-value segment comprised 1,844 paid customers, representing a 39% year-over-year increase, and significantly contributed 29% of monday.com's total ARR ^[1][4][2][3].

Management explained NDR factors, confirming high gross retention. The company's management clarified that the NDR for the >$100,000 ARR cohort is slightly lower than other cohorts. This is primarily because these customers often begin with larger initial deal sizes and commit to multi-year agreements ^[5][6]. It was emphasized that this trend is not due to churn, as gross retention remains at an all-time high for the company ^[5][6]. As of August 8, 2026, the Q2 2026 financial statements had not been released, therefore, no specific metrics for that period are available ^[4].

IT budget growth moderates, favoring AI and demanding clear ROI. Forecasts for overall IT spending growth in calendar-year 2026 indicate a moderation. ETR’s Spring 2026 Macro Views Survey projects a 3.6% increase, a decrease from 4.6% in January, underscoring the need for vendors to demonstrate clear return on investment ^[1]. Similarly, Morgan Stanley’s Q2 2026 CIO survey found CIOs anticipate a 3.8% growth in IT budgets for 2026, also noting a quarter-over-quarter reduction in the perceived defensibility of AI/ML investments, which suggests increased selectivity for discretionary enterprise software in Q3 ^[4]. A significant concern is that 47% of organizations report AI spending overruns. Among these, 36% are reallocating funds by discontinuing non-AI software licenses, a trend that could lead to selective cuts for non-core software vendors in the second half of 2026 ^[2]. While Gartner projects worldwide IT spending to reach $6.37 trillion in 2026, a 14.2% increase over 2025, this growth is expected to prioritize AI infrastructure and cloud platforms, potentially impacting other software categories ^[5].

Macroeconomic indicators signal tightening, with notable regional spending divergences. The U.S. Leading Economic Index declined in June, reversing previous gains, and consumer expectations weakened, prompting The Conference Board to highlight an increased likelihood of recession ^[6]. Regionally, Bernstein’s mid-year CIO survey reveals differing full-year 2026 budget forecasts: U.S. projections rose by 60 basis points, while Europe’s fell by 130 basis points. Additionally, U.S. second-half expectations softened, representing a potential IT-cut risk for monday.com's enterprise customer base if they have significant regional exposure ^[3]. For context, monday.com reported net dollar retention for customers spending over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) was 117% in Q3 2025 and 115% in Q1 2026 ^[7][8].

Monday.com is scheduled to announce its Q2 2026 financial results on August 10, 2026 ^[1]. The Q3 2026 earnings release date is estimated for mid-November 2026, consistent with historical reporting patterns ^[2]. These scheduled reports represent near-term catalysts for market re-evaluation.

Bullish catalysts also include expanding adoption among larger, upmarket customers and accelerating Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) growth ^[3][4]. Evidence of successful multiproduct adoption across areas like CRM, dev, service, and campaigns would also be a positive driver ^[3][4]. The firm reported a net dollar retention rate of 115% for the >$100k ARR customer cohort in Q1 2026 ^[5], and high net dollar retention is often interpreted as an indicator of sticky recurring revenue ^[6][7][8].