Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: net dollar retention rate for the >$100k ARR cohort in fiscal 2026 Above 111% at 12.0% model vs 0.0% market. This suggests management's projected 1-2% temporary pressure on this cohort, following a Q1 2026 rate of 115%, may still keep retention above 111%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has seen no trading activity. The price is static at its opening level of 83.0%. With zero volume, the chart is a flat line, indicating no price discovery has taken place. The market is completely illiquid, so the current price does not reflect any trader consensus or conviction.
Given the lack of trading, there are no support or resistance levels to analyze. The market's opening price of 83.0% is a significant discount to the 115% net dollar retention rate for customers with over $100,000 in ARR reported by Monday.com for its first quarter of fiscal 2026. Management guidance anticipates a slight decline in the overall retention rate for the full fiscal year as the effects of prior pricing actions fade. The 83.0% price implies a severe decline, far more pronounced than a "slight" moderation. Until trading commences, this price is merely an opening quote and does not represent market sentiment.
  • Net dollar retention for the >$100k ARR cohort appears most probable above 111-114%.
  • Management expects a 1-2% decline from the Q1 2026 rate of 115%.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 117% 6.0% 2.0% Market higher by 4.0pp
Above 111% 0.0% 12.0% Model higher by 12.0pp
Above 112% 0.0% 12.0% Model higher by 12.0pp
Above 113% 0.0% 12.0% Model higher by 12.0pp
Above 114% 0.0% 12.0% Model higher by 12.0pp

Current Context

Monday.com reported 115% net dollar retention for its large customer cohort. As of the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, the company recorded a net dollar retention rate of 115% for customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) [1][2][3]. Management anticipates a slight decline in the overall net dollar retention rate (NDR) by the close of fiscal year 2026. This expectation accounts for the company lapping pricing actions from 2024 and 2025 that previously contributed to increased NDR [4][5].
Monday.com initiated a restructuring plan alongside revised financial guidance. In July 2026, the company announced a 20% workforce reduction to align with its AI-driven strategy [6][7]. Concurrently, Monday.com raised its full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to approximately 15% [7]. The company's next financial update, the Q2 2026 earnings report, is scheduled for release before market open on Monday, August 10, 2026 [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - monday.commonday.com
  3. 3monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Monday.Com Ltd (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Zk2635715.htmsec.gov
  7. 7Monday.com Earnings Showcase High-Stakes AI Pivot Amid SaaS Industry Retrenchmenttechgolly.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 113%" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Monday's net dollar retention rate for the >$100k ARR cohort in fiscal 2026 is greater than 113%; otherwise, "No" resolves. Trading for this market concludes on February 8 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 9, 2027. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions beyond the stated rate threshold.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 117% $0.07 $0.98 6%
Above 111% $0.92 $0.17 0%
Above 112% $0.74 $0.35 0%
Above 113% $0.50 $0.59 0%
Above 114% $0.29 $0.80 0%
Above 115% $0.15 $0.94 0%
Above 116% $0.09 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, ending March 31, 2026, monday.com announced a net dollar retention (NDR) rate of 115% for customers with over $100,000 in ARR [1][2][3][4]. Management stated this rate was slightly below other cohorts due to the temporary impact of lapping prior pricing actions from 2024, not churn, and they expect an overall NDR decline of 1-2% for the remainder of fiscal year 2026, characterizing this pressure as temporary for upmarket segments [5][6][7]. The research clarifies that 'Monday' refers to the company monday.com, and NDR is generally calculated as a trailing average, not a specific day-of-week metric [8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - monday.commonday.com
  3. 3Monday com: Q1 2026 Investor Presentation | MarketScreener Hong Konghk.marketscreener.com
  4. 4monday.com Q1 2026 revenue rises 24% to $351M | MNDY Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  5. 5https://finance.biggo.com/quote/MNDY/earnings-call?t=US_MNDY_2026-05-11finance.biggo.com
  6. 6Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  7. 7monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - May 11, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  8. 8What is the “Predicted Score”? – NFLsupport.nfl.com
  9. 9NFL extends strategic partnership with Genius Sports as exclusive official NFL data, Watch and Bet distribution partnernfl.com

4. What evidence supports Monday.com management's guidance for a slight decline in overall net dollar retention through the end of fiscal 2026?

Overall NDR expectation (FY2026)Slight decline (through end of fiscal 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
>$100k ARR cohort pressure (FY2026)1% to 2% temporary pressure (remainder of fiscal 2026) [1][2][3][7][8][9][10][11][12]
Net dollar retention rate (>$100k ARR, Q1 FY2026)115% (as of March 31, 2026) [13][14]
Monday.com anticipates a slight decline in overall net dollar retention through fiscal 2026. Management has guided for a slight decrease in overall net dollar retention (NDR) through the end of fiscal year 2026. This expectation, confirmed during the Q1 FY2026 earnings call, is primarily due to the company lapping favorable pricing adjustments implemented in 2024 and 2025, which had previously boosted NDR by approximately 1% to 2% [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Largest customer cohort anticipates temporary net dollar retention pressure. Specifically, the cohort of customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) is projected to face 1% to 2% temporary pressure for the remainder of fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Management attributed the slightly lower NDR for this larger cohort, compared to the >$50,000 ARR cohort, to pricing and expansion dynamics, as well as a greater proportion of enterprise deals, rather than customer churn [1][3][7][8][9][10][11][12]. While Monday.com reported a net dollar retention rate of 115% for the >$100,000 ARR cohort as of March 31, 2026 [13][14], this figure represents a quarterly performance, and a specific full-year fiscal 2026 percentage for this cohort was not disclosed [1][2][3][7][8][9][10][11][12].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  2. 2Monday.Com Ltd (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6monday.com Ltd. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7MNDY_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8MNDY_Q12026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  10. 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  11. 11www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  12. 12www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  13. 13monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  14. 14monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com

5. How does Monday.com's net dollar retention rate for large customers compare to key competitors like Asana and Smartsheet in fiscal 2026?

Monday.com >$100k ARR NDR115% [1][2][3]
Asana >$100k ARR NDR96% [4][5]
Smartsheet Overall NDR111% [6][7]
Monday.com showed strong net dollar retention for large customers. The company reported a net dollar retention rate of 115% for its customer cohort spending over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for fiscal 2026, specifically for the first quarter ending March 31, 2026 [1][2][3]. This figure, representing the latest disclosed metric from the company's investor relations within the last six months, indicates that these large customers expanded their spending by 15% after accounting for churn and downgrades [1][2][3][8][9][10][11][12][13].
Asana's large customer retention trails Monday.com, while Smartsheet's specific data is absent. In comparison, Asana reported a dollar-based net retention rate of 96% for its customers spending $100,000 or more annually for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, which concluded on January 31, 2026 [4][5]. While comparable figures are available for Monday.com and Asana's large customer cohorts, public disclosures for Smartsheet's specific net dollar retention rate for the greater than $100,000 ARR cohort in fiscal 2026 were not found in the provided sources [6][7]. Smartsheet's overall dollar-based net retention rate was 111% as of its third quarter of fiscal 2025 [6][7].
Sources (13)
  1. 1monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - monday.commonday.com
  3. 3monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Asana Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Results • Asana, Inc.investors.asana.com
  5. 5[PDF] Form 10-K for Asana INC filed 03/13/2026investors.asana.com
  6. 6Smartsheet Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  7. 7Smartsheet NRR: 111% · FY2025-Q3 | Custcust.co
  8. 8www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  9. 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  10. 10www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  11. 11www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  12. 12www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  13. 13www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com

6. What are the potential impacts of Monday.com's July 2026 restructuring and AI pivot on its ability to retain and expand accounts in the >$100k ARR cohort?

Restructuring DateJuly 22, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Workforce Reduction20% [1][2][3][4][5]
Q1 2026 Net Dollar Retention for >$100k ARR115% [7][8][9][10]
Monday.com restructured, pivoting to an AI Work Platform. On July 22, 2026, Monday.com initiated a restructuring that included a pivot to an AI Work Platform strategy [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This strategic shift aims to enhance the company's ability to retain and expand accounts with over $100k in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The focus is on AI agents and autonomous workflows, which necessitates deeper enterprise support and increased customer engagement [4][5][6]. To align the organization with this new direction, the restructuring involved a 20% reduction in its workforce [1][2][3][4][5].
Pricing model shifts to hybrid; retention rates monitored. The company is transitioning from a pure per-seat licensing model to a hybrid pricing model that incorporates usage-based AI credit consumption [10][11][6][12]. This new model is expected to drive expansion within large accounts as enterprises adopt autonomous agents and consumption-based workflows [10][11][6][12]. As of Q1 2026, Monday.com reported a net dollar retention rate of 115% for the >$100k ARR cohort. However, management anticipates a slight decline in overall net dollar retention by the end of fiscal year 2026, attributed to previous pricing adjustments [7][8][9][10].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Zk2635715.htmsec.gov
  2. 2Monday.com lays off hundreds to focus on AI - TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  3. 3Monday.com Plans 20% Layoffs Citing 'AI-Driven Growth Strategy' - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com
  4. 4Monday.com cuts 20% of its workforce to restructure for the AI era – Computerworldcomputerworld.com
  5. 5Monday.com cuts 20% of workforce as it restructures for the AI era | Ctechcalcalistech.com
  6. 6Monday.com aims to become the enterprise AI governance layer amid expanding traction and smarter monetisation | Noah Intelligencenoah-news.com
  7. 7monday.com - monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  8. 8Monday com: Q1 2026 Investor Presentation | MarketScreener Hong Konghk.marketscreener.com
  9. 9monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  10. 10monday.com Ltd. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  11. 11Monday.com hits $1.4B ARR, 116% NDR in enterprise, stock up 28% | OnTargetIshontargetish.com
  12. 12Monday.com Just Changed How Enterprise SaaS Gets Priced. The Per-Seat Model Is Not Coming Back. – Forkastforkast.news

7. Based on IT spending forecasts from firms like Gartner and Forrester, what is the outlook for enterprise software budgets in the second half of fiscal 2026?

Worldwide Software Spending Growth 202615.1% [1][2][3]
Total Worldwide Software Spending 2026$1.44 trillion [1][2][3]
IT Budget Growth (2H 2026)3.8% [4][5][6]
The outlook for enterprise software budgets in the second half of fiscal 2026 appears generally positive, yet tempered by cautious sentiment. Enterprise software budgets show a strong positive outlook for 2026. Gartner projects worldwide software spending to increase significantly by 15.1% in 2026, reaching a total of $1.44 trillion. This strong growth suggests sustained high demand for enterprise software throughout the entire year, indicating a generally favorable environment for these budgets [1][2][3].
Despite growth, CIOs indicate caution, especially in the year's second half. While CIO sentiment regarding the second half of 2026 is firm, it also suggests a degree of caution. Overall IT budgets are expected to continue growing at a rate of 3.8% [4][5][6]. However, some U.S.-based forecasts anticipate a slight softening in IT budget growth during the latter half of the year, particularly when compared to the stronger growth observed during the first half of 2026 [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 14.2% in 2026, Totaling $6.37 Trilliongartner.com
  2. 2Gartner: Software Spend Now $1.44 Trillion in 2026, Revised Back Up to 15.1%. The Slowdown Never Came. Are You Grabbing That Budget? | SaaStrsaastr.com
  3. 3Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 13.5% in 2026, Totaling $6.31 Trillionbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Morgan Stanley CIO Survey: IT Budgets Edge Higher; Microsoft and Security Stand Outtradevae.com
  5. 5Bernstein CIO Survey: U.S. IT Budgets Hold Firm as European Outlook Softenstradevae.com
  6. 6U.S. B2B Technology Revenue Grows 10% in First Half of 2026; Growth Expected to Moderate in the Second Half, Reports Circanacircana.com

8. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts regarding Monday.com's customer expansion prospects for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

$100k+ ARR Net Dollar Retention (Q1 2026)115% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Overall Net Dollar Retention (Q1 2026)110% [9][10][11]
Wall Street Analyst ConsensusModerate Buy [3][4][5][6][7][8]
Analysts foresee continued customer expansion for Monday.com in fiscal 2026. Wall Street analysts hold a constructive yet cautious view, anticipating ongoing enterprise growth and monetization but without significant acceleration [3][4][5][6][7][8]. While there is no formal consensus forecast for the net dollar retention rate of the >$100k ARR cohort in fiscal 2026, qualitative consensus supports continued expansion for this group, possibly with modest deceleration from Q1 levels [3][4][5][6][7][8]. As of Q1 2026, this cohort's net dollar retention rate was 115% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Management attributes this segment's slightly lower rate to larger initial contract sizes and multi-year agreements, confirming high overall gross retention [9][10][11].
Net dollar retention is projected to slightly decline for the full fiscal year. Both Wall Street consensus and management guidance anticipate a slight decrease in overall net dollar retention for fiscal year 2026, as the company laps benefits from 2024 pricing actions; the broader NDR, which was 110% in Q1, is expected to decline marginally by year-end [9][10][11][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Analysts are generally bullish on enterprise and customer expansion, driven by Monday.com's focus on AI-driven monetization and deeper penetration into larger accounts [12][3][4]. The base case indicates that the >$100k ARR cohort's expansion will remain above 100% throughout fiscal year 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Analysts collectively maintain a Moderate Buy consensus on the stock [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (12)
  1. 1monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - monday.commonday.com
  3. 3MNDY_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4MNDY_Q12026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  6. 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  7. 7www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  8. 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  9. 9monday.com Ltd. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  11. 11Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  12. 12AI Will Create a New Generation of Investment Firmsyoutube.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Monday.com reported a net dollar retention (NDR) rate of 115% for customers with over $100,000 in ARR as of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This metric is slightly below the 116% NDR for the $50,000+ cohort [5][6]. Management anticipates temporary pressure on these upmarket expansion metrics through the remainder of fiscal year 2026, attributing the slight decline in the $100,000+ ARR cohort NDR to larger customers increasingly committing to multi-year agreements rather than churn [5][6].
Bullish catalysts include historical highs in gross retention, strong enterprise adoption, and significant net new ARR contributions from AI products [5]. Conversely, bearish factors and risks encompass a projected slight decline in overall NDR by year-end and temporary pressure on upmarket expansion metrics [5].
A key event for market participants is Monday.com's scheduled announcement of its second quarter 2026 financial results on Monday, August 10, 2026 [7][8][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 09, 2027
  • Closes: May 09, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - monday.commonday.com
  3. 3Monday com: Q1 2026 Investor Presentation | MarketScreener Hong Konghk.marketscreener.com
  4. 4monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Monday.com (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  6. 6monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - May 11, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  7. 7monday.com to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on Monday, August 10, 2026 - monday.commonday.com
  8. 8Monday.com Earnings Dates, Reports, Calls 2016-2026 (NASDAQ: MNDY) | WallStreetZenwallstreetzen.com
  9. 9Monday.Com Ltdgurufocus.com