Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that CAVA same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026 will be above 3%. This consensus reflects management indications that Q2 sales trends are tracking near Q1's 9.7% growth.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, pricing the outcome of CAVA's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth, shows a decisive upward trend. The contract opened at a 92.0% probability and has since advanced to 99.0%, where it currently trades. The primary move occurred between July 1 and July 13, when the price climbed from 92.0% to its current high. This price action suggests the market is pricing in an extremely high likelihood of a positive outcome for the quarter's sales metric.
The price appreciation directly correlates with management commentary indicating strong same-restaurant sales trends for the second quarter. The market appears to have interpreted this forward guidance as a strong signal, pushing the contract's probability near its ceiling. The 92.0% opening price has acted as a support floor, with the market showing no signs of testing lower levels since trading began.
Total volume stands at 215 contracts. While not exceptionally deep, the trading activity has been sufficient to sustain the price at the 99.0% level. This combination of a high price and consistent, albeit moderate, volume suggests a strong consensus among market participants. The sentiment is unambiguously positive, reflecting high conviction that CAVA will report same-restaurant sales figures in line with or exceeding the benchmark required for a "YES" resolution.
  • Since last update (~24h): Model-led probability for sales above 10.5% surged +30.0pp, flipping the edge.
  • Our model increased the likelihood of sales above 9% by +8.3pp, widening the edge.
  • Overall, our model's headline probability increased +3.3pp, strengthening the edge by +0.3pp.
  • CAVA's Q2 2026 sales growth appears likely above 7.5% per management guidance.
  • Exceeding 9.0% growth is substantially more likely, given Q2 sales tracking Q1's 9.7%.

Current Context

CAVA Group has not yet reported its Q2 2026 financial results. The company is scheduled to announce its second-quarter 2026 earnings in August 2026. Estimates for the release date range between August 11 and August 18, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5].
CAVA management indicated strong Q2 same-restaurant sales trends. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, CAVA management stated that Q2 same-restaurant sales were tracking in line with Q1 performance, which stood at 9.7% [6]. These trends also surpassed the company's revised full-year 2026 guidance for same-restaurant sales growth, which is projected to be in the range of 4.5%–6.5% [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  2. 2https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cava/earningstipranks.com
  3. 3CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  4. 4Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials - CAVApublic.com
  5. 5CAVA Group (CAVA) investor relations materialquartr.com
  6. 6CAVA Group (CAVA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  7. 7Q1 2024 Earnings Supplemental Materialss202.q4cdn.com
  8. 8Documentsec.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if CAVA Group Inc. reports above 9.0% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026, and NO if it reports 9.0% or less, with outcomes verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on May 28, 2026, and will close early if the event occurs; otherwise, it closes by September 10, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading by those with material non-public information or employed by source agencies is prohibited.

Market Discussion

CAVA Group announced a Same Restaurant Sales (SRS) growth of 9.7% for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026 [1][2]. The company's fiscal year 2026 outlook projects CAVA SRS growth between 3.0% and 5.0%, with some materials updating this range to 4.5% to 6.5% [3]. Q2 2026 financial results are expected in mid-August [4][5][6][7][8], and general restaurant industry commentary suggests a potential sequential slowdown in sales due to strong prior-year summer comparisons [9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  2. 2CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Q1 2024 Earnings Supplemental Materialss202.q4cdn.com
  4. 4https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cava/earningstipranks.com
  5. 5CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  6. 6CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  7. 7Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials - CAVApublic.com
  8. 8Cava Group Earnings Dates, Upcoming and Historicalmarketchameleon.com
  9. 9Micron Soars After AI-Fueled Forecast Shatters Projections | Bloomberg Intelligenceyoutube.com
  10. 10Darden Posts Weak Outlook as Olive Garden Sales Disappointyoutube.com

4. What are the consensus analyst estimates for CAVA's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth?

Q2 2026 Consensus Same-Restaurant Sales Growth5.10% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
FY 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth Guidance4.5% to 6.5% [7][8][9]
Expected Q2 2026 Earnings ReportMid-August 2026 [10][11][12][13]
Initial consensus estimates for CAVA's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth were around 5.10% [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This figure was derived from recent analyst and news coverage, as specific data was not available in the provided financial dataset [7][1][2][3][4][5][6].
CAVA's management updated its Q2 outlook, citing strong Q1 results. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, management stated that Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales trends were tracking consistent with the robust Q1 growth of 9.7% and were above the company's revised full-year guidance [14][8][9]. Following these positive Q1 results, CAVA subsequently increased its full-year 2026 guidance for same-restaurant sales growth to a new range of 4.5% to 6.5% [7][8][9].
Analysts are revising Q2 estimates after CAVA's strong Q1 performance. For instance, firms such as Jefferies have adjusted their specific Q2 same-store sales forecast upward to 8% [8][9]. CAVA is anticipated to release its Q2 2026 financial results in mid-August 2026, with exact dates projected between August 10 and 13, 2026 [10][11][12][13].
Sources (14)
  1. 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  2. 2www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  3. 3www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  4. 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  5. 5www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  6. 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  7. 7CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  8. 8CAVA raises 2026 outlook after strong Q1 report, shares popproactiveinvestors.com
  9. 9CAVA Stock Rose After Q1 2026 Earnings. Here’s What the Earnings Call Reveals About the Real Upside | TIKR.comtikr.com
  10. 10CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  11. 11CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  12. 12Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials - CAVApublic.com
  13. 13Cava Group Earnings Dates, Upcoming and Historicalmarketchameleon.com
  14. 14https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cava/earningstipranks.com

5. How did CAVA's same-restaurant sales growth in Q1 2026 compare to that of its key competitor, Chipotle (CMG)?

CAVA Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.7% [1][2][3]
Chipotle Q1 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth0.5% [4][5][6]
CAVA Q2 2026 Sales Growth SentimentMarket sentiment favors outcomes exceeding 7.5% or 9.0% [7][8][9]
CAVA significantly outperformed Chipotle in Q1 2026 same-restaurant sales growth. During the first quarter of 2026, CAVA reported a robust same-restaurant sales growth of 9.7% [1][2][3]. In stark contrast, its key competitor, Chipotle (CMG), registered a comparable restaurant sales growth of 0.5% during the same period [4][5][6].
Prediction markets show strong confidence for CAVA's Q2 2026 sales growth. The company's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth is being actively tracked by prediction markets [7]. Market sentiment indicates a strong positive outlook, with favored outcomes currently exceeding 7.5% or 9.0% [7]. This optimistic projection is consistent with reports suggesting that Q2 trends are tracking in line with the strong 9.7% growth reported in Q1 [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  2. 2CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Cava wins Q1 with 9.7% same-store sales jumprestaurantdive.com
  4. 4CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTSir.chipotle.com
  5. 5CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  6. 6Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q1 2026 earningscnbc.com
  7. 7CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2kalshi.com
  8. 8CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  9. 9CAVA Stock Rose After Q1 2026 Earnings. Here’s What the Earnings Call Reveals About the Real Upside | TIKR.comtikr.com

6. Which new menu items or major marketing campaigns launched by CAVA in H1 2026 could impact its Q2 sales figures?

Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.7% increase [1][2]
Full-Year Sales Guidance4.5%–6.5% [1][2]
Q2 2026 Sales Growth Expectations7.5%–9.0%+ [3][4]
CAVA significantly expanded its menu with new and returning items in H1 2026. The company launched its largest menu expansion, introducing items such as the Spicy Lamb + Sweet Potato Bowl, Harissa Chicken Power Bowl, Sumac Sour Cream + Onion Pita Chips, Tangerine Aleppo drink, Power Greens, and Sumac Slaw. White sweet potatoes also made a return to the menu [5][6][7][8]. These new offerings were available throughout Q2 2026 and are expected to influence CAVA’s sales figures for that period.
Extensive marketing campaigns, including NIL athlete collaborations, ran through Q2. Alongside its menu enhancements, CAVA conducted several marketing initiatives in H1 2026. These included celebrating National Pita Day, a company-wide sweepstakes, and collaborations with NIL athletes Azzi Fudd and Yaxel Lendeborg, who featured in limited-time digital-exclusive bowls from March 16 to April 7, 2026 [9][10]. Some of these marketing efforts extended into Q2, potentially impacting sales performance.
Strong Q1 sales and prediction markets forecast robust Q2 growth. Financially, CAVA reported a 9.7% increase in same-restaurant sales for Q1 2026 [1][2]. During its Q1 earnings call in May 2026, the company indicated that Q2 2026 sales trends were consistent with Q1, significantly exceeding their revised full-year guidance of 4.5%–6.5% [1][2]. Prediction markets show optimism, with consensus expectations for Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth positioned around or above the 7.5%–9.0% range [3][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1CAVA Stock Rose After Q1 2026 Earnings. Here’s What the Earnings Call Reveals About the Real Upside | TIKR.comtikr.com
  2. 2CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  3. 3CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2kalshi.com
  4. 4CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  5. 5You Asked, CAVA Listened: White Sweet Potatoes are Back as Part of CAVA’s Largest Menu Launch Everbusinesswire.com
  6. 6Cava Brought Back an Item Fans Have Been Begging For | Food Networkfoodnetwork.com
  7. 7Here’s What’s New At CAVA In 2026: Sweet Potatoes, Power Greens, And More - Foodbeastfoodbeast.com
  8. 8CAVA rings in the New Year with largest menu launch everyahoo.com
  9. 9Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Celebrates National Pita Day with Its Biggest Fan Giveaway Yetinvestor.cava.com
  10. 10CAVA Launches Sweepstakes, NIL Bowls, and Free Chips for National Pita Day - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com

7. What do Q2 2026 foot traffic data from providers like Placer.ai or SafeGraph indicate about CAVA's store visitation trends?

Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.7% (Q1 2026 earnings report [1][2])
Q1 2026 Guest Traffic Growth6.8% (Q1 2026 earnings report [1][2])
Q2 2026 Sales Growth OutlookTracking in line with Q1's 9.7% (Management confirmation [3][2])
CAVA demonstrated strong foot traffic and competitive outperformance in 2026. Foot traffic analysis indicates CAVA exhibited positive same-store visit trends and sustained appeal across various income segments. This data suggests CAVA is outperforming other fast-casual brands, many of which have experienced declines in foot traffic [4][5].
Q1 2026 results confirmed strong sales and guest traffic growth. The company's first quarter 2026 earnings report, which concluded on April 19, 2026, further solidified these positive trends. CAVA reported a significant 9.7% growth in same-restaurant sales, primarily driven by a 6.8% increase in guest traffic [1][2].
CAVA's Q2 2026 sales trends are maintaining strong pace. Following the robust Q1 results, CAVA management confirmed that same-restaurant sales trends for Q2 2026 were tracking in line with the 9.7% growth observed in Q1 [3][2]. This positive outlook is further supported by prediction markets for Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth, which have actively traded on thresholds like 'Above 9.0%' and 'Above 7.5%' as of July 2026 [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  2. 2CAVA Group (CAVA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  3. 3CAVA Stock Rose After Q1 2026 Earnings. Here’s What the Earnings Call Reveals About the Real Upside | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Diverging Paths: What the Data Reveals About CAVA and Sweetgreen – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  5. 5Does CAVA Still Have Growth Potential? – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  6. 6CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  7. 7CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2kalshi.com

8. What is CAVA's historical track record of meeting or exceeding its own same-restaurant sales guidance over the past four quarters?

Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.70% (beat guidance of 3.00% to 5.00%) [1]
Q4 2025 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth0.50% (missed guidance of 3.00% to 5.00%) [1]
Quarters Meeting/Exceeding Guidance1 out of last 3 reported quarters [1]
CAVA's same-restaurant sales guidance performance has been mixed recently [1]. Over the past four quarters, from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, the company successfully beat its guidance in Q1 2026 but fell short in both Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 [1]. Overall, CAVA has met or exceeded its own same-restaurant sales guidance in one of the last three reported quarters in the dataset [1].
Quarter-specific results show varying success against guidance [1]. In Q1 2026, CAVA reported a same-restaurant sales growth of 9.70%, which surpassed the full-year 2026 guidance of 3.00% to 5.00% that was in effect before an update [1]. This represented the strongest recent beat. Conversely, Q4 2025 saw actual growth of 0.50%, missing the full-year 2026 guidance of 3.00% to 5.00% [1]. Similarly, in Q3 2025, the company's growth of 1.90% fell short of its specific same-restaurant sales guidance of 3.00% to 4.00% [1].
Q2 2025 results remain unclear regarding guidance adherence [1]. For Q2 2025, CAVA's same-restaurant sales growth was 2.1% [1]. The initial guidance for this period was 4.0%-6.0%, later updated to 2.0%-4.0% [1]. However, the provided sources do not explicitly state whether CAVA met, exceeded, or missed guidance for Q2 2025 [1]. The performance for Q2 2026 is still pending [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 ResultsOctagon Agentinvestor.cava.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

CAVA is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results on either August 11, 2026, or August 18, 2026 [1][2][3]. Following the Q1 2026 earnings call, management indicated that Q2 same-restaurant sales trends were tracking in line with Q1's 9.7% growth [4]. This figure well exceeds the company's full-year 2026 guidance range of 4.5% to 6.5% [5].
Bullish catalysts include sustained traffic growth and momentum from menu innovations like salmon [4]. Bearish risks center on a high valuation multiple and potential margin headwinds from labor and energy costs [4]. Whether Q2 same-restaurant sales can maintain the high levels seen in Q1 to justify the stock's premium valuation remains a key factor [4][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 10, 2026
  • Closes: September 10, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cava/earningstipranks.com
  2. 2CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials - CAVApublic.com
  4. 4CAVA Stock Rose After Q1 2026 Earnings. Here’s What the Earnings Call Reveals About the Real Upside | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5CAVA raises 2026 outlook after strong Q1 report, shares popproactiveinvestors.co.uk
  6. 6CAVA (CAVA) Beats Q2 2026 Earnings Estimates | Meykameyka.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXCAVA-26MAYREST-P456: YES (May 19, 2026)
  • KXCAVA-26MAYREST-459: NO (May 19, 2026)
  • KXCAVA-26MAYREST-458: YES (May 19, 2026)
  • KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457: YES (May 19, 2026)
  • KXCAVA-26MAYREST-470: NO (May 19, 2026)