CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that CAVA same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026 will be above 3%. This consensus reflects management indications that Q2 sales trends are tracking near Q1's 9.7% growth.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Model-led probability for sales above 10.5% surged +30.0pp, flipping the edge.
- Our model increased the likelihood of sales above 9% by +8.3pp, widening the edge.
- Overall, our model's headline probability increased +3.3pp, strengthening the edge by +0.3pp.
- CAVA's Q2 2026 sales growth appears likely above 7.5% per management guidance.
- Exceeding 9.0% growth is substantially more likely, given Q2 sales tracking Q1's 9.7%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 99.0% | 99.3% | Model higher by 0.3pp |
| Above 4.5% | 89.0% | 92.1% | Model higher by 3.1pp |
| Above 6% | 91.0% | 89.1% | Market higher by 1.9pp |
| Above 7.5% | 82.0% | 83.8% | Model higher by 1.8pp |
| Above 9% | 51.0% | 56.2% | Model higher by 5.2pp |
Current Context
CAVA management indicated strong Q2 same-restaurant sales trends. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, CAVA management stated that Q2 same-restaurant sales were tracking in line with Q1 performance, which stood at 9.7% [^]. These trends also surpassed the company's revised full-year 2026 guidance for same-restaurant sales growth, which is projected to be in the range of 4.5%–6.5% [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, pricing the outcome of CAVA's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth, shows a decisive upward trend. The contract opened at a 92.0% probability and has since advanced to 99.0%, where it currently trades. The primary move occurred between July 1 and July 13, when the price climbed from 92.0% to its current high. This price action suggests the market is pricing in an extremely high likelihood of a positive outcome for the quarter's sales metric.
The price appreciation directly correlates with management commentary indicating strong same-restaurant sales trends for the second quarter. The market appears to have interpreted this forward guidance as a strong signal, pushing the contract's probability near its ceiling. The 92.0% opening price has acted as a support floor, with the market showing no signs of testing lower levels since trading began.
Total volume stands at 215 contracts. While not exceptionally deep, the trading activity has been sufficient to sustain the price at the 99.0% level. This combination of a high price and consistent, albeit moderate, volume suggests a strong consensus among market participants. The sentiment is unambiguously positive, reflecting high conviction that CAVA will report same-restaurant sales figures in line with or exceeding the benchmark required for a "YES" resolution.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if CAVA Group Inc. reports above 9.0% same restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026, and NO if it reports 9.0% or less, with outcomes verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on May 28, 2026, and will close early if the event occurs; otherwise, it closes by September 10, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading by those with material non-public information or employed by source agencies is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | $0.99 | $0.04 | 99% |
| Above 6% | $0.91 | $0.15 | 91% |
| Above 4.5% | $0.98 | $0.09 | 89% |
| Above 7.5% | $0.82 | $0.25 | 82% |
| Above 9% | $0.51 | $0.56 | 51% |
| Above 10.5% | $0.22 | $0.85 | 22% |
Market Discussion
CAVA Group announced a Same Restaurant Sales (SRS) growth of 9.7% for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026 [^][^]. The company's fiscal year 2026 outlook projects CAVA SRS growth between 3.0% and 5.0%, with some materials updating this range to 4.5% to 6.5% [^]. Q2 2026 financial results are expected in mid-August [^][^][^][^][^], and general restaurant industry commentary suggests a potential sequential slowdown in sales due to strong prior-year summer comparisons [^][^].
4. What are the consensus analyst estimates for CAVA's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth?
| Q2 2026 Consensus Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 5.10% [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FY 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth Guidance | 4.5% to 6.5% [^][^][^] |
| Expected Q2 2026 Earnings Report | Mid-August 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
CAVA's management updated its Q2 outlook, citing strong Q1 results. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, management stated that Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales trends were tracking consistent with the robust Q1 growth of 9.7% and were above the company's revised full-year guidance [^][^][^]. Following these positive Q1 results, CAVA subsequently increased its full-year 2026 guidance for same-restaurant sales growth to a new range of 4.5% to 6.5% [^][^][^].
Analysts are revising Q2 estimates after CAVA's strong Q1 performance. For instance, firms such as Jefferies have adjusted their specific Q2 same-store sales forecast upward to 8% [^][^]. CAVA is anticipated to release its Q2 2026 financial results in mid-August 2026, with exact dates projected between August 10 and 13, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
5. How did CAVA's same-restaurant sales growth in Q1 2026 compare to that of its key competitor, Chipotle (CMG)?
| CAVA Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 9.7% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Chipotle Q1 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth | 0.5% [^][^][^] |
| CAVA Q2 2026 Sales Growth Sentiment | Market sentiment favors outcomes exceeding 7.5% or 9.0% [^][^][^] |
CAVA significantly outperformed Chipotle in Q1 2026 same-restaurant sales growth. During the first quarter of 2026, CAVA reported a robust same-restaurant sales growth of 9.7% [^][^][^]. In stark contrast, its key competitor, Chipotle (CMG), registered a comparable restaurant sales growth of 0.5% during the same period [^][^][^].
Prediction markets show strong confidence for CAVA's Q2 2026 sales growth. The company's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth is being actively tracked by prediction markets [^]. Market sentiment indicates a strong positive outlook, with favored outcomes currently exceeding 7.5% or 9.0% [^]. This optimistic projection is consistent with reports suggesting that Q2 trends are tracking in line with the strong 9.7% growth reported in Q1 [^][^][^].
6. Which new menu items or major marketing campaigns launched by CAVA in H1 2026 could impact its Q2 sales figures?
| Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 9.7% increase [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-Year Sales Guidance | 4.5%–6.5% [^][^] |
| Q2 2026 Sales Growth Expectations | 7.5%–9.0%+ [^][^] |
CAVA significantly expanded its menu with new and returning items in H1 2026. The company launched its largest menu expansion, introducing items such as the Spicy Lamb + Sweet Potato Bowl, Harissa Chicken Power Bowl, Sumac Sour Cream + Onion Pita Chips, Tangerine Aleppo drink, Power Greens, and Sumac Slaw. White sweet potatoes also made a return to the menu [^][^][^][^]. These new offerings were available throughout Q2 2026 and are expected to influence CAVA’s sales figures for that period.
Extensive marketing campaigns, including NIL athlete collaborations, ran through Q2. Alongside its menu enhancements, CAVA conducted several marketing initiatives in H1 2026. These included celebrating National Pita Day, a company-wide sweepstakes, and collaborations with NIL athletes Azzi Fudd and Yaxel Lendeborg, who featured in limited-time digital-exclusive bowls from March 16 to April 7, 2026 [^][^]. Some of these marketing efforts extended into Q2, potentially impacting sales performance.
Strong Q1 sales and prediction markets forecast robust Q2 growth. Financially, CAVA reported a 9.7% increase in same-restaurant sales for Q1 2026 [^][^]. During its Q1 earnings call in May 2026, the company indicated that Q2 2026 sales trends were consistent with Q1, significantly exceeding their revised full-year guidance of 4.5%–6.5% [^][^]. Prediction markets show optimism, with consensus expectations for Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth positioned around or above the 7.5%–9.0% range [^][^].
7. What do Q2 2026 foot traffic data from providers like Placer.ai or SafeGraph indicate about CAVA's store visitation trends?
| Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 9.7% (Q1 2026 earnings report [^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Guest Traffic Growth | 6.8% (Q1 2026 earnings report [^][^]) |
| Q2 2026 Sales Growth Outlook | Tracking in line with Q1's 9.7% (Management confirmation [^][^]) |
CAVA demonstrated strong foot traffic and competitive outperformance in 2026. Foot traffic analysis indicates CAVA exhibited positive same-store visit trends and sustained appeal across various income segments. This data suggests CAVA is outperforming other fast-casual brands, many of which have experienced declines in foot traffic [^][^].
Q1 2026 results confirmed strong sales and guest traffic growth. The company's first quarter 2026 earnings report, which concluded on April 19, 2026, further solidified these positive trends. CAVA reported a significant 9.7% growth in same-restaurant sales, primarily driven by a 6.8% increase in guest traffic [^][^].
CAVA's Q2 2026 sales trends are maintaining strong pace. Following the robust Q1 results, CAVA management confirmed that same-restaurant sales trends for Q2 2026 were tracking in line with the 9.7% growth observed in Q1 [^][^]. This positive outlook is further supported by prediction markets for Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales growth, which have actively traded on thresholds like 'Above 9.0%' and 'Above 7.5%' as of July 2026 [^][^].
8. What is CAVA's historical track record of meeting or exceeding its own same-restaurant sales guidance over the past four quarters?
| Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 9.70% (beat guidance of 3.00% to 5.00%) [^] |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 0.50% (missed guidance of 3.00% to 5.00%) [^] |
| Quarters Meeting/Exceeding Guidance | 1 out of last 3 reported quarters [^] |
CAVA's same-restaurant sales guidance performance has been mixed recently [^] . Over the past four quarters, from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, the company successfully beat its guidance in Q1 2026 but fell short in both Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 [^]. Overall, CAVA has met or exceeded its own same-restaurant sales guidance in one of the last three reported quarters in the dataset [^].
Quarter-specific results show varying success against guidance [^] . In Q1 2026, CAVA reported a same-restaurant sales growth of 9.70%, which surpassed the full-year 2026 guidance of 3.00% to 5.00% that was in effect before an update [^]. This represented the strongest recent beat. Conversely, Q4 2025 saw actual growth of 0.50%, missing the full-year 2026 guidance of 3.00% to 5.00% [^]. Similarly, in Q3 2025, the company's growth of 1.90% fell short of its specific same-restaurant sales guidance of 3.00% to 4.00% [^].
Q2 2025 results remain unclear regarding guidance adherence [^] . For Q2 2025, CAVA's same-restaurant sales growth was 2.1% [^]. The initial guidance for this period was 4.0%-6.0%, later updated to 2.0%-4.0% [^]. However, the provided sources do not explicitly state whether CAVA met, exceeded, or missed guidance for Q2 2025 [^]. The performance for Q2 2026 is still pending [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
CAVA is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results on either August 11, 2026, or August 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . Following the Q1 2026 earnings call, management indicated that Q2 same-restaurant sales trends were tracking in line with Q1's 9.7% growth [^]. This figure well exceeds the company's full-year 2026 guidance range of 4.5% to 6.5% [^].
Bullish catalysts include sustained traffic growth and momentum from menu innovations like salmon [^] . Here’s What the Earnings Call Reveals About the Real Upside | TIKR.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Bearish risks center on a high valuation multiple and potential margin headwinds from labor and energy costs [^]. Whether Q2 same-restaurant sales can maintain the high levels seen in Q1 to justify the stock's premium valuation remains a key factor [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 10, 2026
- Closes: September 10, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: CAVA is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results on either August 11, 2026, or August 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Following the Q1 2026 earnings call, management indicated that Q2 same-restaurant sales trends were tracking in line with Q1's 9.7% growth [^] .
- Trigger: This figure well exceeds the company's full-year 2026 guidance range of 4.5% to 6.5% [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include sustained traffic growth and momentum from menu innovations like salmon [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCAVA-26MAYREST-P456: YES (May 19, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26MAYREST-459: NO (May 19, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26MAYREST-458: YES (May 19, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457: YES (May 19, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26MAYREST-470: NO (May 19, 2026)
