Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Cerebras to officially announce an IPO this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~14d): OpenAI's probability dropped -37.6pp, flipping the edge as the model led the market.
- The model gained +1.3pp on the market edge, with headline probability increasing +5.3pp.
- Kraken's probability fell -20.1pp, with the market leading the model as the edge compressed.
- Gopuff and Oura were added as new outcomes for analysis.
- SpaceX and INNIO listed, Doncasters priced upsized IPO in June 2026.
- Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement in June 2026.
- Ripple Labs defers IPO, prioritizing growth after resolving SEC issues.
- Kraken faces ongoing regulatory battles, impacting its IPO prospects.
- Databricks reported sustained positive free cash flow and revenue scale.
- Secondary market data shows specific valuation ranges for Ramp and Vanta.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 33.0% | 27.7% | Rapid growth and strategic partnerships may influence IPO timing for OpenAI. |
| Anduril | 6.0% | 2.2% | Anduril may prioritize further private funding rounds before an IPO this year. |
| Anthropic | 83.0% | 89.6% | Having recently secured substantial funding, Anthropic may consider an IPO soon. |
| Databricks | 9.0% | 3.6% | Databricks continues its strong growth, but no specific IPO plans are announced. |
| Kraken | 24.0% | 13.0% | Regulatory conditions in the cryptocurrency market may influence Kraken's IPO timeline. |
Current Context
The 2026 IPO market rebound remains selective, favoring strong fundamentals. The market exhibits a significant rebound, with Goldman Sachs projecting approximately $160 billion in U.S. IPO gross proceeds for the year [^][^][^][^]. The IPO window, while open, remains selective, prioritizing companies that demonstrate positive operating cash flow, clear revenue trajectories, and proven unit economics [^][^][^][^]. Sustained market momentum hinges on the successful performance of early 2026 IPO entrants [^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The market for at least one official IPO announcement in 2026 has traded in a very narrow, sideways range between 92.0% and 94.0%. The contract opened at 92.0% on June 12 before climbing to its current 94.0% price by June 21. This level has effectively served as a ceiling since. The price action shows low volatility and a stable, high probability assessment from traders.
The market's high conviction is rooted in public reports that several major firms, including KNDS N.V., Jio Platforms, SpaceX, and Anthropic, have announced or filed for IPOs this year. These developments provide a fundamental anchor for the high "YES" probability. Total traded volume is 919 contracts, with a significant portion of activity, such as a 105-contract spike on June 25, occurring at the 94.0% level. This concentration of volume at the top of the range suggests strong agreement and confidence among participants. The chart reflects a market pricing the outcome as a near certainty based on existing corporate announcements.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: OpenAI
📉 June 25, 2026: 37.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 33.0%
What happened: The 37.0 percentage point drop in OpenAI's prediction market price on June 25, 2026, was primarily driven by a re-evaluation of its IPO prospects amidst a challenging market. While OpenAI officially announced its intent to IPO by confidentially submitting a draft S-1 on June 8, 2026 [^][^][^][^], subsequent market activity for other listings showed significant volatility, with several IPOs dropping substantially (e.g., 35-36%) from their issue prices [^][^][^][^]. This broader investor risk reassessment and the fact that OpenAI had not yet set a specific timeline for its public debut [^] likely led to decreased confidence in the immediate progression or favorable terms of its IPO. Social media was not identified as a primary driver.
Outcome: Applied Intuition
📈 June 23, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 18.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Applied Intuition's IPO on June 23, 2026, was primarily driven by investor speculation and market signals, leading to a reported 20.5 percentage point increase in implied probability [^]. This movement occurred despite Applied Intuition not having officially announced an IPO or filed an S-1 registration statement [^][^]. There is no evidence in the provided sources of specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly causing or influencing this particular price surge. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver or accelerant based on the available information.
Outcome: Anthropic
📉 June 22, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 88.0% to 77.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in Anthropic's prediction market price on June 22, 2026, was the concurrent launch and immediate 7.2% decline of Anthropic's pre-IPO perpetual futures contract on Coinbase [^]. This market event served as a direct realization and amplification of negative sentiment, which originated from traditional news of Anthropic's operational disruptions on June 12, 2026, when U.S. export controls forced it to suspend access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models [^][^]. No specific social media activity was identified as a direct cause or accelerant of this particular price movement. Social media was irrelevant.
Outcome: Kraken
📉 June 20, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 37.0% to 29.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop was traditional news reports indicating Kraken's IPO plans had been postponed. Recent media outlets highlighted that Kraken's listing may now slide toward 2027 due to unfavorable market conditions, with no official IPO date or confirmed public prospectus as of June 25, 2026 [^][^][^]. This directly reduced the market's expectation of an IPO announcement "this year." Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as no specific activity appeared in the provided information.
Outcome: Stripe
📈 June 17, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 22.0%
What happened: The available research does not identify a primary driver for the 14.0 percentage point spike in Stripe's IPO prediction market on June 17, 2026. Stripe has no official plans for an IPO in 2026, with its leadership consistently avoiding going public through tender offers [^]. Additionally, recent social media and market activity regarding Stripe in June 2026 focused on product announcements, not IPO-related catalysts [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a driver for this price movement based on the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Discord officially confirms an IPO before January 1, 2027. An IPO is confirmed if the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange assigns a ticker, which can trigger a YES resolution even if trading begins after January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the market resolves NO and closes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST, with outcomes verified by major financial news outlets.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jersey Mike's | $0.95 | $0.07 | 94% |
| Anthropic | $0.82 | $0.20 | 83% |
| Discord | $0.56 | $0.45 | 54% |
| OpenAI | $0.35 | $0.66 | 33% |
| Kraken | $0.29 | $0.76 | 24% |
| Shein | $0.22 | $0.81 | 21% |
| Rippling | $0.08 | $0.93 | 13% |
| Skims | $0.14 | $0.92 | 13% |
| Applied Intuition | $0.14 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Beast Industries | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Glean | $0.10 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Databricks | $0.10 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Stripe | $0.12 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Airwallex | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Deel | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Ramp | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Ripple Labs | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Mistral AI | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Anduril | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Celonis | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Plaid | $0.11 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Vanta | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | $0.03 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Brex | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| xAI | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Gopuff | $0.38 | $0.70 | 0% |
| Oura | $0.80 | $0.29 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively discussing which companies will announce an IPO this year, with Discord (54%), OpenAI (33%), and Gopuff (34%) currently showing the highest market probabilities. A primary argument for Discord's IPO is that it has reportedly already filed. There is also discussion regarding xAI, specifically whether its IPO would count if acquired by SpaceX, with a trader emphasizing that market rules likely require a company to IPO as a single entity, not a subsidiary.
5. What macroeconomic indicators, such as a sustained VIX level below 15 or specific Fed guidance, would need to materialize in 2026 to accelerate IPO filings for capital-intensive companies like Databricks and Anduril?
| Ideal VIX level for IPO acceleration | mid-teens [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| VIX threshold for open IPO market | below 20 [^][^][^] |
| Current Federal Reserve interest rates | 3.50–3.75% [^][^][^] |
To accelerate IPO filings for capital-intensive companies like Databricks and Anduril in 2026, a sustained VIX level in the mid-teens is a key condition [^] [^] [^] [^] . A VIX reading below 20 is generally recognized as the threshold for an open IPO market [^][^][^]. However, a consistent VIX in the mid-teens is considered ideal for achieving market stability and pricing certainty for new offerings, which would significantly boost IPO activity [^][^][^].
Federal Reserve policy must reverse its "higher for longer" stance for IPO acceleration. Current 2026 IPO market conditions are largely shaped by the Federal Reserve's adherence to this "higher for longer" interest rate policy [^][^][^]. Interest rates are presently maintained at 3.50–3.75%, with the possibility of further rate hikes [^][^][^]. For IPO filings to accelerate, a significant macroeconomic shift is necessary, involving the Federal Reserve moving towards an easing policy, contrasting its current position where it is not easing as initially anticipated [^].
6. What evidence in public filings or financial reporting confirms that Databricks has achieved the positive operating cash flow and revenue scale that investors now demand for a successful 2026 IPO?
| Annualized Revenue (June 2026) | $6.9 billion, growing >80% year-over-year (June 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Annualized Revenue (February 2026) | $5.4 billion (February 2026) [^][^][^] |
| 2026 IPO Status | Not going public (CEO statement, June 2026) [^][^][^] |
Databricks has demonstrated robust financial health and significant revenue scale. The company consistently reported sustained positive free cash flow over the last 12-month periods through 2025 and 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, Databricks achieved a significant revenue scale, reaching an annualized revenue run-rate of $6.9 billion by June 2026, which represents an impressive growth of over 80% year-over-year [^][^][^]. This figure marks an increase from the $5.4 billion annualized revenue reported in February 2026 [^][^][^]. These financial achievements indicate that Databricks has met the typical criteria required for an initial public offering.
Databricks will not pursue an IPO in 2026 despite its strong financial position. CEO Ali Ghodsi explicitly stated in June 2026 that the company intends to remain private for the current year [^][^][^]. Ghodsi attributed this decision to a perceived market saturation from other mega-offerings, characterizing 2026 as an unfavorable year for new initial public offerings [^][^][^].
7. How do the 2026 IPO prospects of crypto-focused firms Ripple Labs and Kraken compare, specifically regarding their ongoing regulatory battles with the SEC and their reported trading volumes?
| Ripple Labs IPO Status | No immediate plans (throughout 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Kraken S-1 Filing Date | November 2025 [^][^][^] |
| Kraken Daily Trading Volume | $1.07 billion (first four months of 2026) [^] |
Ripple Labs defers IPO, prioritizing growth despite regulatory clarity. The firm successfully resolved its primary regulatory issues with the SEC, settling its civil enforcement action in May 2025 [^][^][^]. Despite achieving this legal clarity, Ripple's leadership consistently stated throughout 2026 that there are no immediate plans for an Initial Public Offering (IPO). Instead, the company prefers to remain private to focus on business expansion and ongoing regulatory navigation [^][^].
Kraken advances IPO preparations, exhibiting robust trading volumes. In contrast to Ripple, Kraken's parent company, Payward, took a significant step towards going public by filing a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC in November 2025 [^][^][^]. While there were reports of a temporary pause, the filing remains active, and current information suggests a likely IPO debut in 2027 [^][^][^]. Kraken's spot exchange reported an average daily trading volume of approximately $1.07 billion during the first four months of 2026, largely driven by fiat-crypto pairs [^].
8. What are the most recent secondary market share prices and 409A valuation data available from Q4 2025 and H1 2026 for late-stage candidates like Ramp and Vanta?
| Ramp Secondary Market Price | $92 to $121 per share (May/June 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Vanta Secondary Market Price | $12.37 to $20.17 per share (May/June 2026) [^][^][^] |
| 409A Valuation Disclosure | Not publicly disclosed for Ramp or Vanta [^] |
Secondary market share prices for late-stage candidates like Ramp and Vanta show specific ranges for H1 2026. For Ramp, reported secondary market share prices in May and June 2026 were observed between $92 and $121 per share [^][^][^][^]. Vanta's secondary market shares in the same period were estimated to be in the range of $12.37 to $20.17 per share [^][^][^].
Specific Q4 2025 data and 409A valuations are not publicly available for either company. No secondary market share price data for Q4 2025 for Ramp or Vanta was found in the provided information. Regarding 409A valuations, these are internal assessments primarily used for employee equity compensation and are typically not disclosed publicly [^]. While companies like Ramp offer general guidance on 409A operations, they do not publish their specific internal reports [^]. Therefore, no 409A valuation data for Q4 2025 or H1 2026 for Ramp or Vanta is available.
9. How might the public market performance of the first major AI IPO of 2026, such as Anthropic's, directly impact the valuation and timing strategy for a competing IPO from Mistral AI?
| Anthropic S-1 Filing Date | June 1, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anticipated Anthropic IPO | As early as October 2026 [^][^] |
| Mistral AI IPO Status | No imminent IPO plan [^][^] |
Anthropic's upcoming IPO could significantly influence the broader AI market. The company confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Analysts anticipate a public listing could occur as early as October 2026, contingent upon favorable market conditions and the completion of the SEC's review process [^][^]. The performance of this IPO is widely expected to serve as a crucial indicator for investor sentiment regarding an 'AI bubble,' directly impacting the valuation and strategic timing for potential public listings by competitors such as Mistral AI [^]. A successful debut would affirm high valuations for AI companies and might encourage other players like Mistral AI to expedite their own IPO timelines, seeking an advantage from an earlier public offering [^][^].
Mistral AI's IPO strategy prioritizes private funding over public listing. The company does not currently have plans for an imminent public offering, instead focusing on private-market fundraising [^][^]. While CEO Arthur Mensch has indicated that an IPO remains a long-term objective to achieve greater independence, Mistral AI's current strategy emphasizes securing substantial private funding rounds and fostering strategic partnerships [^][^]. This approach reduces the immediate demand for liquidity typically sought from public markets [^][^]. Conversely, a poor reception for Anthropic's IPO could further prompt Mistral AI to continue relying on private funding or to postpone any future public listings [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Beyond recent listings, major high-profile firms have initiated IPO processes. Anthropic filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026 [^][^]. OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 filing on June 8, 2026 [^]. Discord, which filed confidentially in January 2026, is targeted for an IPO in the second half of 2026 [^][^]. Databricks is also widely expected to file an S-1 in the second half of 2026 [^][^]. The market projects 200-230 total IPOs for the year, primarily driven by interest in AI-related firms and stable, cash-flow-positive enterprises [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 IPO market shows significant activity with several notable listings.
- Trigger: SpaceX listed on June 11, 2026, following INNIO's listing on June 3, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Doncasters Group priced its upsized initial public offering on June 24, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Beyond recent listings, major high-profile firms have initiated IPO processes.
13. Related News
Last updated: June 25, 2026, 22:09 UTC
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14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPO-26-SPACEX: YES (Jun 15, 2026)
- KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS: YES (May 14, 2026)
