Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Jersey Mike's is most likely to announce an IPO this year, with only minor residual uncertainty. SpaceX is also expected to announce an IPO this year by both the model and the market.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~40d): Headline model probability for an IPO announcement plummeted -89.9pp, with market probability falling -88.0pp.
- Model-led Shein probability surged +69.4pp (edge compressed); market-led Oura rose +72.0pp (edge widened).
- Anthropic probability, model-led, dropped -18.0pp (edge compressed); Discord fell -15.8pp (edge widened).
- DeepSeek and Bloomberg outcomes were newly added to the market, while Cerebras was removed.
- Anthropic has confidentially filed for a 2026 IPO.
- Mistral AI is widely viewed as a leading 2026 IPO candidate.
- Kraken targets a 2026 IPO, based on regulatory clearance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 24.0% | 25.7% | OpenAI's rapid expansion and high valuation make a public offering an anticipated event. |
| Anthropic | 70.0% | 71.6% | Anthropic's significant private funding and rapid AI development may precede an IPO. |
| Anduril | 4.0% | 1.4% | Anduril remains a highly-valued private defense technology company. |
| Databricks | 5.0% | 0.8% | As a leader in data and AI, it is a frequently discussed IPO prospect. |
| Kraken | 14.0% | 6.3% | The volatile cryptocurrency market and regulatory uncertainty may delay Kraken's IPO plans. |
Current Context
The 2026 IPO market shows significant activity, driven by major tech listings. The year has seen record-breaking activity, highlighted by SpaceX's listing in June 2026 with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, marking it as the largest initial public offering in history [^][^]. This active period sets the stage for other high-profile companies looking to go public.
AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI lead the projected 2026 IPO pipeline. Anthropic officially filed for its IPO on June 1, 2026, while OpenAI confidentially filed its paperwork on June 8, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Both firms are considered primary candidates expected to complete their IPOs by year-end, though their timelines remain subject to market conditions [^][^][^][^]. Other notable companies frequently mentioned in the 2026 pipeline include fintech firm Chime, e-commerce giant Shein, and defense-technology companies like Anduril and Shield AI; however, their official IPO statuses vary, ranging from confirmed to rumored or potential [^][^][^].
Some major tech companies are delaying IPOs despite active markets. Databricks, for instance, has explicitly stated it will not pursue a 2026 IPO, instead opting to wait until 2027 [^][^]. The company is focusing on private capital rounds, demonstrating that not all prominent tech firms are committed to the current IPO window despite the overall active market environment [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price for this contract has traded within a narrow, low-probability band, moving from a 3.0% floor to a 6.0% ceiling. The sample data indicates the price doubled from its low in late July to its current level in early August, where it has met resistance. Despite this relative increase, the absolute probability implied by the market remains in the single digits. Trading volume is exceptionally light at 156 total contracts, with the sample data showing price adjustments occurring on zero volume. This suggests repricing on a thin order book rather than a shift driven by significant new buying or selling pressure.
The general market environment is constructive for initial public offerings, with reports of record-breaking activity in 2026, including major tech listings. However, the specific timing of the price move in this contract, from late July to early August, does not directly correlate with the key IPO filings mentioned in June for companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. The positive IPO market backdrop may have slightly improved sentiment for other potential filers, but it is not a direct, event-driven catalyst for this specific contract's price action. Overall, the chart indicates deep skepticism. A price ceiling of 6.0% combined with minimal volume signals a market that assigns a very low probability to the event and has little conviction.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 August 01, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 72.0% to 63.0%
Outcome: Oura
What happened: The primary driver for Oura's prediction market price drop on August 1, 2026, was the continued lack of a definitive public IPO announcement following its confidential draft registration statement submission on May 21, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Despite the earlier confidential filing, as of August 4, 2026, Oura had not scheduled an IPO date and remained in the SEC review process [^]. This lack of progress from a preliminary filing to a concrete public offering by August 1st likely reduced market confidence in an official announcement this year. Social media activity was irrelevant for Oura's specific movement, as mentions of social discussion were tied to Anthropic's market drop [^].
📈 July 30, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 63.0% to 73.0%
Outcome: Oura
What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for Oura's prediction market price spike on July 30, 2026. While Oura confidentially filed a draft Form S-1 for an IPO on May 21, 2026, there was no public announcement or set IPO date by late July, and market sentiment indicated uncertainty regarding timing [^]. No specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure event directly linked to an Oura IPO catalyst around July 30, 2026, was reported [^]. Based on the available information, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver.
📈 July 28, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 64.0% to 73.0%
Outcome: Oura
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point price spike on July 28, 2026, cannot be definitively identified as a new event on that specific date from the provided information. Oura had already announced the confidential submission of a draft registration statement (Form S-1) for a proposed IPO on May 21, 2026 [^][^][^]. As of August 4, 2026, Oura had not set a specific public debut date, indicating no further official announcement occurred by July 28 [^][^][^]. No specific social media posts from key figures or traditional breaking news related to Oura's IPO were found for July 28. Social media was irrelevant, and the movement likely represents a delayed market reaction or sustained investor confidence in Oura's IPO following the May 21 announcement, potentially influenced by general optimism in the 2026 IPO market [^][^].
📉 July 27, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 64.0%
Outcome: Oura
What happened: Oura confidentially submitted a draft registration statement for a proposed IPO to the SEC on May 21, 2026, announcing its intent to go public [^][^][^]. However, the provided research does not contain any social media posts, traditional news, or market events on or around July 27, 2026, that would explain the 9.0 percentage point price drop for Oura's IPO outcome. Without information suggesting a delay or cancellation around that date, the cause of the movement remains unidentified. Therefore, social media was not a discernible factor in this price movement based on the available data.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if a listed company, such as Anthropic, Discord, or OpenAI, officially announces an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2026. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the company does not officially announce an IPO by the market's maximum payout date of December 31, 2026. No further special settlement conditions are detailed beyond the requirement of an official announcement.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shein | $0.86 | $0.19 | 85% |
| Oura | $0.76 | $0.28 | 72% |
| Anthropic | $0.74 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Discord | $0.38 | $0.63 | 39% |
| OpenAI | $0.28 | $0.76 | 24% |
| DeepSeek | $0.14 | $0.92 | 15% |
| Kraken | $0.17 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Gopuff | $0.13 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Applied Intuition | $0.10 | $0.98 | 9% |
| Plaid | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Deel | $0.08 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Glean | $0.07 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Mistral AI | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Ramp | $0.11 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Rippling | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Beast Industries | $0.05 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Ripple Labs | $0.07 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Skims | $0.14 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Stripe | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Celonis | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Databricks | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Anduril | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Vanta | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Airwallex | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | $0.04 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Brex | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| xAI | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Bloomberg | $0.11 | $0.95 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders on Kalshi are actively predicting the IPO announcements of Anthropic, Discord, and OpenAI this year, reflecting over $2.1 million in trading volume. The market shows a strong consensus for Anthropic to announce an IPO, with a 70% chance, though it has slightly decreased by 2 points. Discord's probability has risen 4 points to 39%, while OpenAI remains a less likely candidate at 24%.
5. What key market indicators or valuation milestones could trigger an IPO announcement from defense-tech firm Anduril or fintech company Ramp before year-end?
| Anduril IPO Stance | No rush to go public (July 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Ramp IPO Readiness Goal | IPO ready by end of 2026 [^][^] |
| Ramp IPO Prediction Market Confidence | Approximately 30% for IPO before May 2027 [^][^] |
While market indicators suggest a strong IPO recovery, neither Anduril nor Ramp are rushing to go public. Substantial growth in IPO proceeds is expected to continue into 2026, but both companies have recently secured significant private funding. This lessens any immediate need for them to access public markets for additional capital [^][^].
Anduril's CEO expressed no rush, cautioning against 'hype cycle' IPOs. In July 2026, Anduril Industries' CEO explicitly stated that the company is not in a hurry to go public. The CEO cautioned against pursuing IPOs during a 'hype cycle' and expressed skepticism regarding the rationality of current market pricing [^][^].
Ramp aims to be 'IPO ready' but maintains a flexible timeline. The company has publicly stated its intention to be 'IPO ready' by the end of 2026, which involves building out its financial reporting and compliance infrastructure. However, Ramp has not filed an S-1 and maintains a flexible timeline for an actual public offering. Prediction markets reflect low confidence in a Ramp IPO before May 2027, with only about 30% of traders betting on an earlier timeframe [^][^].
6. What concrete evidence, such as recent funding rounds or executive statements, supports the market consensus that Mistral AI is a leading candidate for a 2026 IPO?
| Rumored Valuation | Approximately €20 billion in mid-2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Debt Financing Round | $830 million in March 2026 [^][^][^] |
| 2026 IPO Status | No concrete evidence for imminent IPO [^][^][^][^][^] |
Mistral AI is widely viewed as a leading 2026 IPO candidate. The company is broadly considered a top contender for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2026, primarily due to its designation as a European AI "champion," robust growth trajectory, and a rumored valuation estimated at approximately €20 billion by mid-2026. This market sentiment has generated speculation regarding a potential future listing on either the Paris or New York stock exchanges [^][^][^][^][^].
Concrete evidence for an imminent 2026 IPO is currently lacking. As of August 2026, there is no specific evidence, such as formal IPO filings, the selection of underwriters, or official company announcements, to substantiate an imminent public offering for Mistral AI. CEO Arthur Mensch has consistently characterized an IPO as a long-term aspiration rather than a short-term objective, explicitly denying in both 2025 and 2026 that the company is actively preparing for one [^][^][^][^][^].
Mistral AI relies on private capital, not public markets, for funding. Rather than seeking capital from public markets, Mistral AI continues to fund its extensive operations through private capital and debt financing. This financial strategy is illustrated by an $830 million debt round secured in March 2026 [^][^][^].
7. How do crypto exchanges Kraken and Ripple Labs compare in terms of regulatory clearance and financial health, and how do these factors affect their respective IPO timelines?
| Kraken IPO Target | H2 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Ripple Labs IPO Status | No immediate plans [^] |
| Kraken 2025 Adjusted Revenue | $2.2 billion [^] |
Kraken targets a 2026 IPO, while Ripple Labs remains private. Kraken has signaled a potential Initial Public Offering in the second half of 2026, having previously paused its plans after confidentially filing an S-1 in November 2025 and halting the process in March 2026 due to market conditions [^]. In contrast, Ripple Labs has explicitly stated it has no immediate intentions to pursue a public listing, choosing to remain a private company [^]. As of August 2026, no official announcements of impending IPOs for either company have been made [^][^].
Both companies demonstrate strong financial health and active regulatory engagement. Kraken's financial health includes an estimated 2025 adjusted revenue of $2.2 billion and $531 million in EBITDA, though Q1 2026 saw $507 million in revenue with some EBITDA compression due to investments [^][^]. Kraken holds over 100 global regulatory licenses and is actively seeking a federal trust charter in the US and a banking license in Europe [^][^]. Ripple Labs, valued at $40 billion, completed a $500 million fundraising round in late 2025, which allows it to fund growth internally [^][^][^][^]. Ripple has also achieved significant regulatory milestones, including US OCC conditional approval as a national trust bank and full crypto-asset service provider licensing in the EU [^][^][^][^].
The evolving regulatory environment significantly influences potential public listings. Ripple Labs experienced a reduction in its legal overhang with a July 2026 court order limiting its civil penalty to $125 million, despite the SEC's potential for appeal [^]. The regulatory landscape for XRP has further improved, evidenced by the launch of the first U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF in July 2026 [^]. The broader U.S. regulatory climate for crypto companies, and thus the feasibility of public listings, remains dependent on pending legislative developments like the CLARITY Act and continued SEC enforcement [^][^][^].
8. What secondary market trading data from H1 2026 is available for Databricks and Vanta, and what does it indicate about their current private valuations?
| Databricks H1 2026 Secondary Share Price | $210 to $242 per share [^] |
|---|---|
| Databricks H1 2026 Implied Valuation | $155B–$170B [^] |
| Vanta Mid-2026 Secondary Share Price | near $19.50 [^] |
Databricks' private valuation significantly increased during H1 2026 secondary trading. In the first half of 2026, Databricks shares traded on the secondary market between $210 and $242, implying a valuation of $155 billion to $170 billion [^]. This represented a notable increase of approximately 15% to 27% compared to its Series L valuation of $134 billion in December 2025 [^][^][^]. As of August 2026, Databricks had not yet announced an official initial public offering (IPO) [^].
Vanta's mid-2026 secondary market activity provided an estimated share price. Secondary market data for Vanta in mid-2026 indicated an estimated share price close to $19.50, based on an estimate from Nasdaq Private Market on July 2, 2026 [^]. The company's valuation on platforms like Hiive typically references its last significant funding round in July 2025, which valued Vanta between $4.15 billion and $4.2 billion [^][^][^]. Similar to Databricks, Vanta had not announced an official IPO as of August 2026 [^].
9. What competitive pressures or potential M&A opportunities could cause Deel or Celonis to delay a 2026 IPO in favor of a private sale?
| Deel Status | Private company as of August 4, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Celonis IPO Candidacy | Considered a 2026 IPO candidate [^] |
| Private Equity Investment in Software Sector | Roughly 20-25% of private equity [^] |
Crowded tech IPO market could delay Deel and Celonis offerings. Deel remains a private company as of August 4, 2026, despite unverified reports of a confidential S-1 filing on February 15, 2026 [^][^]. Celonis, widely considered a 2026 IPO candidate, is awaiting favorable market conditions [^]. Both companies could experience delays in a 2026 public offering due to competitive pressures from a crowded market for public listings. Prediction markets indicate high expectations for 2026 IPO announcements from major AI-related and tech firms, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which have reportedly begun confidential filing processes, and Discord, frequently cited for a targeted IPO in the second half of 2026 [^][^][^]. Celonis specifically waits for favorable market conditions and sustained profitability, noting the potential for broad downturns in the software sector [^][^].
Significant private equity interest in software businesses presents M&A possibilities. The private equity market has shown substantial interest in software businesses, with approximately 20-25% of private equity investments going into this sector [^]. While there is general chatter regarding software suites between companies like Block and Toast, the provided information does not explicitly detail specific M&A opportunities involving Deel or Celonis that would prompt them to delay a 2026 IPO in favor of a private sale [^]. Deel's CEO has stated the company is preparing for a public listing without external pressure to expedite the process [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 IPO market anticipates significant activity, with OpenAI and Anthropic having confidentially filed for IPOs in 2026. These are marked as two of the most significant potential listings for the second half of the year [^][^]. Market analysts remain bullish, with estimates for U.S. IPO gross proceeds reaching roughly $160 billion for 2026, driven by AI-related firms and large-scale growth companies [^][^][^].
Beyond these major tech players, Shein is reportedly planning a Hong Kong IPO in mid-to-late August 2026, targeting a valuation between $30 billion and $40 billion [^] [^] . A pipeline of over two dozen companies, including Truhome Finance and Juniper Green Energy, are slated for potential debuts in August 2026, contributing to a strong third-quarter outlook [^]. The IPO market in the second half of 2026 is expected to broaden beyond AI and semiconductors to include mid-cap companies across diverse sectors [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 IPO market anticipates significant activity, with OpenAI and Anthropic having confidentially filed for IPOs in 2026.
- Trigger: These are marked as two of the most significant potential listings for the second half of the year [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Market analysts remain bullish, with estimates for U.S.
- Trigger: IPO gross proceeds reaching roughly $160 billion for 2026, driven by AI-related firms and large-scale growth companies [^] [^] [^] .
13. Related News
Last updated: August 4, 2026, 14:54 UTC
SpaceX IPO Filing Lifts Odds for Databricks, Other Tech Listings
The formal IPO filing by SpaceX on Wednesday, June 03, 2026, appears to have catalyzed a significant repricing in prediction markets for other major technology listings, boosting the implied odds for ...
Last updated: August 4, 2026, 14:54 UTC
Anduril's IPO Probability Plummets: A Tech Giant Faces Investor Reality Checks Amid Mixed 2026 IPO Landscape
The prediction market for Anduril’s IPO prospects in 2026 has undergone a seismic shift. Over a 7-day period, its probability of announcing an IPO plunged from 46% to 19% (a 27-point decline) [1], loc...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPO-26-JERS: YES (Jul 30, 2026)
- KXIPO-26-SPACEX: YES (Jun 15, 2026)
