Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q2
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): Our model for 'Above 56 million' flipped its edge (+20.5pp, model_led), gaining +18.5pp as the market fell -2.0pp.
- Model for 'Above 57 million' climbed +22.6pp, compressing the edge (model_led) as market gained +9.0pp.
- Model for 'Above 59 million' rose +14.8pp, compressing the edge (model_led) as market fell -7.0pp.
- Seats flown above 57 million is highly probable, based on 59.42 million scheduled capacity.
- Over 59 million seats expected, consistent with 59.42 million in third-party scheduled data.
- Capacity likely remains below 59.5 million, given 59.42 million third-party scheduled seats.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 14, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 90.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: Above 57 million
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Southwest Airlines Company reports above 59,500,000 seats flown in Q2 2026; otherwise, it resolves NO, with the outcome verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on June 25, 2026, and will close upon the outcome's occurrence or by August 21, 2026, at 4:00pm EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. The market will close and expire early if the event occurs, and insider trading by individuals with material, non-public information or those employed by source agencies is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Southwest Airlines reported 53.03 million seats flown in Q1 2026, representing a 0.4% year-over-year decrease [^][^]. For Q2 2026, the company provided guidance for available seat miles (ASMs) to be flat to up 1.0% year-over-year [^][^]. Social media sentiment regarding Southwest is currently mixed, leaning towards frustration due to new initiatives like assigned seating [^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 56 millionPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 57 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 58 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 59 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 59.5 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 60 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 60.5 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 61 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 62 millionTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026
6. What were Southwest's reported 'seats flown' for Q2 2025 and Q1 2026, and where is this data found in company filings?
| Q2 2025 Seats Flown | 59,265,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Seats Flown | 53,030,000 [^] |
| Seats Flown Definition | Total number of seats available by aircraft type multiplied by the total trips flown by the same aircraft type during a specific period [^][^][^] |
7. How does Southwest's Q2 2026 capacity guidance compare with recent outlooks from competitors like Delta Air Lines and United Airlines?
| Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 Capacity Guidance | Flat to up 1.0% year-over-year [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 Capacity Increase | Approximately 1% [^][^] |
| United Airlines H2 2026 Capacity Growth Forecast | Flat to up 2% [^][^][^] |
8. How might macroeconomic data from Q2 2026, such as consumer travel demand trends and jet fuel prices, affect Southwest's operational decisions?
| Jet Fuel Price Decline | Approximately 40% from April peak by end of June [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Capacity Growth | Flat to 1% year-over-year [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2026 RASM Increase | 16.5% to 18.5% [^][^][^] |
9. What do third-party aviation data providers, like OAG or Cirium, show for Southwest's scheduled flights and capacity in Q2 2026?
| Available Seats Scheduled Q2 2026 | 59.42 million (Cirium schedule data) [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Capacity Guidance (ASMs) | Flat to up 1% year-over-year [^] |
| Q2 2026 Earnings Call Date | July 23, 2026 [^] |
10. What impact will Southwest's fleet modifications and Boeing's 737 delivery schedule have on the total seats flown in Q2 2026?
| Q2 2026 Capacity Growth (ASM) | Approximately 0.5% (midpoint) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Boeing 737-8 Deliveries | 66 aircraft [^][^] |
| Seats Removed per Boeing 737-700 | 6 seats [^][^][^][^] |
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 21, 2026
- Closes: August 21, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Southwest Airlines is scheduled to hold its second-quarter 2026 financial results conference call on Thursday, July 23, 2026, at 10:00 AM Eastern Time [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For Q2 2026, the company provided capacity (ASMs) guidance to be flat to up 1.0% year-over-year, subsequently adjusting second-quarter capacity growth to approximately 0.5% due to network adjustments [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Adjusted EPS guidance for Q2 2026 is $0.35 to $0.65 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key factors influencing the Q2 outlook include fuel price volatility, the success of new revenue and pricing initiatives, and the outcomes of labor negotiations [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.