Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q2
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): Our model for 'Above 56 million' flipped its edge (+20.5pp, model_led), gaining +18.5pp as the market fell -2.0pp.
- Model for 'Above 57 million' climbed +22.6pp, compressing the edge (model_led) as market gained +9.0pp.
- Model for 'Above 59 million' rose +14.8pp, compressing the edge (model_led) as market fell -7.0pp.
- Seats flown above 57 million is highly probable, based on 59.42 million scheduled capacity.
- Over 59 million seats expected, consistent with 59.42 million in third-party scheduled data.
- Capacity likely remains below 59.5 million, given 59.42 million third-party scheduled seats.
Current Context
Sources (14)
- 1SOUTHWEST AIRLINES TO DISCUSS SECOND...finance.yahoo.com
- 2SOUTHWEST AIRLINES TO DISCUSS SECOND QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS ON JULY 23, 2026 — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 3April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 4April 23, 2026 - 10-Q: Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 5Southwest Airlines Reports First Quarter Results, Business Transformation Initiatives Deliver Meaningful Margin Expansion | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 7www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
- 8nypost.comOctagon Agent
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 12Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 13Flights and Tights: Delta CEO Ed Bastian and a Look at Lululemon | Barron's Streetwiseyoutube.com
- 14Copa Holdings (CPA): Is Buffett right about Airline Stocks?youtube.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 14, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 90.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: Above 57 million
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Southwest Airlines Company reports above 59,500,000 seats flown in Q2 2026; otherwise, it resolves NO, with the outcome verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on June 25, 2026, and will close upon the outcome's occurrence or by August 21, 2026, at 4:00pm EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. The market will close and expire early if the event occurs, and insider trading by individuals with material, non-public information or those employed by source agencies is prohibited.
Market Discussion
Southwest Airlines reported 53.03 million seats flown in Q1 2026, representing a 0.4% year-over-year decrease [1][2]. For Q2 2026, the company provided guidance for available seat miles (ASMs) to be flat to up 1.0% year-over-year [1][3]. Social media sentiment regarding Southwest is currently mixed, leaning towards frustration due to new initiatives like assigned seating [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2April 23, 2026 - 10-Q: Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 3Southwest Airlines posts strong Q1 2026 profit | LUV 8-K...stocktitan.net
- 4Southwest Airlines (LUV) Stock Sentiment: Reddit, X & Newsadanos.org
- 5Southwest Airlines: Trav... — Review 2026: Sentiment & Intelmarlvel.ai
- 6Southwest Airlines' SWOT analysis: stock transformation...investing.com
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What were Southwest's reported 'seats flown' for Q2 2025 and Q1 2026, and where is this data found in company filings?
| Q2 2025 Seats Flown | 59,265,000 [1] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Seats Flown | 53,030,000 [2] |
| Seats Flown Definition | Total number of seats available by aircraft type multiplied by the total trips flown by the same aircraft type during a specific period [3][1][2] |
Sources (3)
- 1SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2025 RESULTS:: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) 8-K Earnings Release - Apr 2026last10k.com
- 3April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
7. How does Southwest's Q2 2026 capacity guidance compare with recent outlooks from competitors like Delta Air Lines and United Airlines?
| Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 Capacity Guidance | Flat to up 1.0% year-over-year [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 Capacity Increase | Approximately 1% [4][5] |
| United Airlines H2 2026 Capacity Growth Forecast | Flat to up 2% [6][7][8] |
Sources (8)
- 1April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 3Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary / aviator.aeroaviator.aero
- 4Delta sees fare increases holding even as fuel prices normalise - FlightGlobalflightglobal.com
- 5Delta Air Lines Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 6United's Long-Term Strategy Remains Focused on Winning Brand-Loyal Customers, Boosted by Q1 Growth in Earnings and Margins - Apr 21, 2026united.mediaroom.com
- 7Documentsec.gov
- 8United Airlines slashes 2026 forecast as fuel costs surge...cnbc.com
8. How might macroeconomic data from Q2 2026, such as consumer travel demand trends and jet fuel prices, affect Southwest's operational decisions?
| Jet Fuel Price Decline | Approximately 40% from April peak by end of June [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Capacity Growth | Flat to 1% year-over-year [5][6][7] |
| Q2 2026 RASM Increase | 16.5% to 18.5% [5][6][7] |
Sources (18)
- 1Global Outlook for Air Transportiata.org
- 2US summer travel slumps under rising fares and fuel expenses | Travel News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
- 3CIO Macro Trends: Second Quarter 2026 in Review - Oxford Financial Group, Ltd.™ofgltd.com
- 4Jet fuel prices are down 40% in three months - but ticket prices haven’t dropped | The Independentthe-independent.com
- 5Southwest Airlines - Strategic Analysis and Outlook Report...aviationoutlook.com
- 6Southwest Airlines posts strong Q1 2026 profit | LUV 8-K...stocktitan.net
- 7SOUTHWEST AIRLINES REPORTS FIRST QUARTER...prnewswire.com
- 8April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 9Southwest Airlines Reports First Quarter Results, Business Transformation Initiatives Deliver Meaningful Margin Expansion | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 10Southwest Airlines - Strategic Analysis and Outlook Report 2026 (Updated)aviationoutlook.substack.com
- 11Southwest Airlines' Strategic Transformation: Operational Efficiency and Revenue Diversification in the Post-Open-Seating Eraainvest.com
- 12www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 13www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
- 14nypost.comOctagon Agent
- 15www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 16www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 17seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 18Consumer Pulse Survey | Summer 2026kpmg.com
9. What do third-party aviation data providers, like OAG or Cirium, show for Southwest's scheduled flights and capacity in Q2 2026?
| Available Seats Scheduled Q2 2026 | 59.42 million (Cirium schedule data) [1] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Capacity Guidance (ASMs) | Flat to up 1% year-over-year [2] |
| Q2 2026 Earnings Call Date | July 23, 2026 [3] |
Sources (3)
- 1Southwest has added 5 new airports to its network; will serve 122 airports in Q2 - Air Service Oneairserviceone.com
- 2Southwest (NYSE:LUV) moves forward with more St. Louis route cuts as investors eye capacityts2.tech
- 3Southwest Airlines Co. Q2 FY26 Results & Share Price Analysis | Arthneetiarthneeti.com
10. What impact will Southwest's fleet modifications and Boeing's 737 delivery schedule have on the total seats flown in Q2 2026?
| Q2 2026 Capacity Growth (ASM) | Approximately 0.5% (midpoint) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Boeing 737-8 Deliveries | 66 aircraft [5][6] |
| Seats Removed per Boeing 737-700 | 6 seats [1][2][7][8] |
Sources (8)
- 1April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2Southwest Airlines Reports First Quarter Results, Business Transformation Initiatives Deliver Meaningful Margin Expansion | SWA Newsroomswamedia.com
- 3Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 4Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary / aviator.aeroaviator.aero
- 5Broken Promises: How Southwest Is Impacted By Boeing 737 Delayssimpleflying.com
- 6Fleet planning challenges: Southwest Airlines and the Boeing delays – Aviation.Directaviation.direct
- 7Southwest Airlines Cabin Reconfiguration Increases Seat Pitch, Reducing Overall Passenger Capacitysimpleflying.com
- 8Southwest Airlines Completes Boeing 737-700 Retrofit Ahead Of Assigned Seating - AirPro Newsairpronews.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 21, 2026
- Closes: August 21, 2026
Sources (7)
- 1Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 2SOUTHWEST AIRLINES TO DISCUSS SECOND...finance.yahoo.com
- 3April 22, 2026 - EX-99.1 1ST QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS - 8-K: Current report | Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com
- 4Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 5Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 Earnings Analysisswapa.org
- 6Southwest Airlines Guidance Reset: Rich Valuation Meets Reality Check as Easy Turnaround Phase Endsainvest.com
- 7Southwest Stock Signal 22/06: Labor Negotiation Uncertaintydailyforex.com