Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2

Walmart anticipates solid Q2 sales momentum after a strong Q1 exit. Management commentary from the Q1 FY27 earnings call indicated improving sales trends, highlighted by a robust April and a strong exit rate for the first quarter ^{[^][^][^][^]}. For Q2 FY27, Walmart projects net sales growth of 4% to 5% and adjusted operating income growth of 7% to 10% in constant currency ^{[^][^]}. Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, is expected to be approximately 3.5% to 4.5% on a constant-currency basis ^{[^][^][^][^]}. This positive near-term momentum is driven by steady sales, the expansion of eCommerce, enhanced omnichannel capabilities, and advertising growth ^{[^][^][^]}.

Consumer health presents a mixed outlook, with both resilience and pressure evident. Management acknowledged both consumer strength and ongoing financial strain ^{[^][^][^][^]}. Walmart reported broad-based market share gains across various categories and income tiers, notably led by upper-income households, while observing growth across all income cohorts ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^][^]}. Customers were described as "choiceful and consistent," maintaining their focus on value and efficient delivery ^{[^][^][^][^]}. However, management also stressed that consumers remain under pressure, resulting in a continued shift of spending towards essential goods and away from discretionary general merchandise ^{[^][^][^][^]}. Encouragingly, health-and-wellness trends were positive, with pharmacy growth in the mid-20s and prescription growth exceeding 10% when excluding the impact of GLP-1 drugs ^{[^][^][^][^]}.

Walmart's Q2 comparable sales growth is currently anticipated based on predictions. Walmart has not yet released its Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel), meaning an actual figure for direct comparison is unavailable at this time ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. However, prediction markets for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) in Q2 2027 indicate expectations above 3%, with considerable probabilities suggesting growth could exceed 4% and even 4.5% ^{[^][^][^]}.

Walmart's Q1 performance trailed competitors' recent comparable sales figures. For Q1 FY27, Walmart U.S. reported comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) of 4.1% ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^][^]}. This figure places Walmart below its competitors' most recently available comparable sales data. Costco's latest comparable-sales-style figure for Q3 FY2026 was +9.80% ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. Target, in comparison, reported a comparable sales growth of +5.6% in its Q1 2026 earnings ^{[^]}.

Macroeconomic indicators in Q2 2026 suggest resilient consumer demand. The most relevant leading indicators for Walmart's US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027 include retail sales, consumer sentiment, and inflation/interest-rate conditions ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. These indicators collectively pointed to resilient U.S. consumer demand, alongside elevated inflation and interest rate pressure ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

Robust Q2 2026 retail sales supported Walmart's growth prospects. Total US retail and food services sales in May 2026 reached $763.7 billion, reflecting a 0.9% month-over-month increase and a 6.9% year-over-year increase ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. The overall retail sales trend from March to May 2026 showed a 5.3% year-over-year increase, providing a positive backdrop for both discretionary and grocery demand, which is supportive of traffic and basket growth at Walmart ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

Consumer sentiment improved, but inflation drove value-seeking behavior. Consumer sentiment improved in June 2026, with the University of Michigan Index rising to 49.5 and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increasing to 91.2, largely due to easing gasoline prices ^{[^][^][^]}. However, sentiment remained weaker compared to the prior year, suggesting consumers were still value-seeking, which typically favors Walmart ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. Elevated inflation, with May 2026 headline CPI at +0.5% month-over-month and +4.2% year-over-year, can support Walmart's value proposition but also pressures real purchasing power ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. Higher interest rates also weigh on demand, though Walmart often benefits relative to premium retailers in a value-led environment ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

Alternative data does not directly reveal Walmart's real-time Q2 FY27 sales performance. There is no public, near-real-time alternative-data series available to directly infer Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for Q2 FY27. Specifically, a public Walmart U.S. foot-traffic figure for the quarter could not be found, and real-time credit card transaction feeds are not accessible through the available financial endpoints ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

Walmart's Q2 FY27 results are unknown, but guidance was provided. The company's Q2 FY27 earnings are scheduled for release on August 20, 2026, indicating the quarter has not yet concluded ^{[^]}. During its Q1 FY27 earnings release on May 21, 2026, Walmart anticipated Q2 FY27 net sales growth of 4% to 5% and adjusted operating income growth of 7% to 10% in constant currency ^{[^][^][^]}. While recent alternative data from June 2026 showed positive, steady visit gains for Walmart during Amazon's Prime Week, this analysis does not provide a measurable Q2 FY27 U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) metric ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

Wall Street consensus on Walmart's Q2 FY27 comparable sales growth is not explicitly available. Current analyst estimates for Walmart's second quarter of fiscal year 2027 project earnings per share at $0.74 and revenue at $187 billion, figures that have remained stable over the last 30 days ^{[^]}. However, the provided research does not specifically detail the Wall Street consensus for comparable sales growth for Q2 FY27, nor does it indicate how this particular consensus has changed since the Q1 report ^{[^]}.

Walmart provided its own Q2 FY27 sales growth outlook after Q1 earnings. Following its Q1 FY27 earnings report on May 21, 2026, Walmart reiterated its full-year guidance, forecasting a 3.5% to 4.5% constant currency sales growth. This guidance includes a Q2 outlook of 4% to 5% growth ^{[^]}.

The primary catalyst is Walmart's Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings release, expected on August 20, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] . As of mid-July 2026, financial analysts project Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for this quarter will trend below 4.0% ^{[^]}. This projection contrasts with the 4.80% U.S. comparable sales growth ex-fuel reported for Q2 FY2026, which ended July 31, 2025 ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

Market sentiment toward Q2 FY2027 performance is cautious [^] . This caution stems from macroeconomic headwinds, specifically the absence of tax refunds, the lapsing of general merchandise price increases, and potential softness in spending among lower-income consumers ^{[^]}.