Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027 will be Above 3%, with only minor residual uncertainty. Financial analyst consensus supports growth trending below 4.0%, but still within a substantial range above 3.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~7h): Model's probability for growth Above 4% decreased by 4.0pp, widening the edge (model-led).
- Model's conviction for growth Above 3.5% also fell 3.1pp, further widening the edge (model-led).
- Growth above 3.0% appears likely, as analyst consensus below 4.0% leaves a substantial range.
- Analyst expectations trending below 4.0% challenge exceeding 3.5% and higher thresholds.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 93.0% | 96.3% | Analyst consensus for Q2 comparable sales growth trends below 4.0%, but within a range above 3.0%. |
| Above 5.5% | 13.0% | 7.5% | Analyst consensus expects Q2 comparable sales growth to trend below 4.0%, making higher thresholds less likely. |
| Above 5% | 22.0% | 12.9% | Analyst consensus expects Q2 comparable sales growth to trend below 4.0%, making higher thresholds less likely. |
| Above 4.5% | 36.0% | 22.6% | Analyst consensus expects Q2 comparable sales growth to trend below 4.0%, making higher thresholds less likely. |
| Above 3.5% | 85.0% | 72.0% | Analyst consensus indicates Q2 comparable sales growth trending below 4.0%, challenging exceeding 3.5%. |
Current Context
Analysts project Walmart U.S. Q2 net sales at $119.96 billion [^]. Walmart has not explicitly detailed specific consensus for comparable sales growth in its latest guidance for Q2 FY27 [^]. While market analysts have projected net sales for Walmart U.S. to reach approximately $119.96 billion, specific comparable sales growth for Walmart U.S. (ex-fuel) is not provided in the available guidance or analyst projections [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market indicates a high and stable probability that Walmart's Q2 FY27 U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) will resolve as "YES". The contract has traded in a narrow band, opening at 93.0% and currently priced at 98.0%. The overall trend is sideways within this high-conviction range. A significant price movement occurred on July 1, 2026, when the price dropped from 94.0% to 6.0%. However, this sharp decline was quickly reversed, with the price returning to 98.0% by July 9, 2026. The provided context finds no fundamental news or official financial reporting to substantiate this 88-percentage-point drop.
The price action suggests a floor near the 93.0% level and resistance at the current 98.0% mark. The anomalous dip to 6.0% appears to be a temporary dislocation rather than a tested support level. Trading volume for the contract is light, with a total of 446 contracts traded across 65 data points. Several days, including some with price changes, show zero volume. This low liquidity suggests that price movements may be driven by a small number of participants and that the market's high conviction may not be broadly held.
Overall market sentiment, as reflected by the price, is strongly confident in a "YES" resolution. The rapid recovery from the July 1 drop reinforces this view, indicating that market participants quickly dismissed the brief downturn as unfounded. The primary caveat is the low trading volume, which implies the price may not reflect the consensus of a deep, liquid market. The price has remained stable despite Walmart's official guidance for Q2 FY27 net sales growth of 4% to 5%, which was public information before the market's inception.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 July 01, 2026: 88.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 6.0%
Outcome: Above 3%
What happened: The provided research indicates there is no evidence of an 88.0 percentage point (pp) drop in Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) around July 1, 2026, or any period near that date [^]. Official financial reports confirm Walmart U.S. comparable sales (ex-fuel) grew 4.6% in Q2 FY26, which was reported on August 21, 2025 [^]. Therefore, since the premise of such a significant price movement is not supported by the available data, no primary driver from social media, traditional news, or market structure factors can be identified. In this context, social media is irrelevant to explaining a non-existent market movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This contract resolves "Yes" if Walmart Inc. reports U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) above 4.5% for Q2 2027, and "No" if the growth is 4.5% or less. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai, and the market will close either when the event occurs or by September 19, 2026, at 7:00 am EDT, with payout projected 30 minutes later. Insider trading is prohibited for individuals employed by source agencies or those holding material, non-public information on the underlying.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | $0.98 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Above 3.5% | $0.90 | $0.15 | 85% |
| Above 4% | $0.68 | $0.37 | 62% |
| Above 4.5% | $0.41 | $0.64 | 36% |
| Above 5% | $0.23 | $0.83 | 22% |
| Above 5.5% | $0.14 | $0.92 | 13% |
Market Discussion
Walmart's US comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Q2 FY2026, which ended July 31, 2025, was 4.6% [^]. As of July 9, 2026, for the current Q2 FY2027, Walmart has announced guidance for net sales growth of 4% to 5% in constant currency [^][^]. Public discussions for Q2 FY2027 highlight concerns over margin pressures from elevated fuel prices affecting consumer behavior and scrutiny of the retailer's EPS guidance, which fell short of some analyst consensus after the Q1 FY2027 earnings release in May 2026 [^].
5. What is the consensus among leading financial analysts for Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth in Q2 FY2027?
| Analyst expectation: US comparable sales growth Q2 FY2027 | Below 4.0% (as of early July 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Walmart consolidated net sales growth guidance Q2 FY2027 | 4.0%-5.0% (constant currency) [^][^][^] |
| Walmart US comparable sales guidance | Not provided quarterly [^][^][^] |
Analysts anticipate Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth will trend below 4.0%. As of early July 2026, financial analysts project Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, for Q2 FY2027 to be below 4.0% [^]. It is important to note that Walmart itself does not provide specific quarterly guidance for U.S. comparable sales growth [^][^][^]. Instead, the company issues guidance for consolidated net sales growth, forecasting 4.0%-5.0% for Q2 FY2027 on a constant currency basis [^][^][^].
Several factors contribute to analysts' cautious outlook for Q2 FY2027. This caution regarding Q2 FY2027 sales performance is attributed to the absence of tax refunds, the impact of general merchandise price increase laps, and a noted softness within the low-income consumer segment [^].
6. How is the performance of Walmart's grocery segment versus its general merchandise segment expected to contribute to overall comparable sales growth in Q2 FY2027?
| Q2 FY2027 Consolidated Net Sales Growth Expectation | 4.0% to 5.0% in constant currency [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 Walmart U.S. Comparable Sales Growth | 4.1% [^][^][^][^] |
| Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release Date | August 20, 2026 [^] |
Walmart has not provided specific Q2 FY2027 segment guidance. The company has not offered specific segment-level comparable sales growth numerical guidance for Q2 FY2027 [^][^]. However, Walmart has set an overall consolidated net sales growth expectation for the quarter of 4.0% to 5.0% in constant currency [^][^]. As individual contributions from grocery and general merchandise to overall comparable sales growth for Q2 FY2027 have not been specified due to the lack of segment guidance, precise expectations are unavailable [^][^]. Walmart's Q2 FY2027 earnings are scheduled for release on August 20, 2026 [^].
Q1 FY2027 saw strong comparable sales growth in both segments. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Walmart U.S. reported a comparable sales growth of 4.1% [^][^][^][^]. This performance was driven by robust growth across both grocery and general merchandise categories, with each reporting mid-single-digit comparable sales growth [^][^][^][^]. Grocery segment growth was supported by increased unit volumes and market share gains in both pantry and fresh food categories [^][^][^]. Concurrently, general merchandise performance was strengthened by strong results in fashion and hardlines, along with achieving record-high share gains in five years [^][^][^].
7. How have consumer foot traffic and average transaction size at Walmart U.S. trended in H1 2026 compared to Target?
| Walmart Q1 2026 Same-Store Visits | 3.5% increase [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Target Q1 2026 Visits | 5.1% increase year over year [^][^] |
| Walmart Q1 2027 (ending April 2026) U.S. Comparable Sales Drivers | 1.1% increase in average ticket and 3.0% increase in transactions [^][^][^][^] |
Walmart demonstrated consistent foot traffic and transaction size growth in H1 2026. The company experienced continuous year-over-year foot traffic growth, with its same-store visits increasing by 3.5% in Q1 2026 [^][^][^]. This consistent growth is primarily driven by need-based, routine shopping by consumers [^]. Regarding average transaction size, Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for its fiscal Q1 2027, which ended in April 2026, was propelled by a 1.1% increase in average ticket and a 3.0% increase in transactions [^][^][^][^].
Target's foot traffic improved, though transaction size data is unavailable. In early 2026, Target saw an upturn in its foot traffic trends, marking its first positive growth in over a year, with visits rising by 5.1% year over year in Q1 2026 [^][^]. This improvement is attributed to a strategic turnaround focused on merchandising curation and enhancing the in-store experience, leading to increased engagement during 30-45 minute visits [^][^][^]. However, the provided research does not contain specific information regarding Target's average transaction size for H1 2026.
8. Where can historical quarterly data for Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) from FY2023 to FY2026 be accessed?
| Data Source for Comparable Sales | Walmart Investor Relations website (Financial Results, Quarterly Reports, SEC Filings) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Document Format | Earnings releases and presentations (PDF or HTML) [^][^][^] |
| Comparable Sales (ex-fuel) Definition | Sales from stores and clubs open for the previous 12 months, including remodels, relocations, expansions, and eCommerce, with fuel excluded for volatility adjustment [^][^][^] |
Walmart's Investor Relations website provides historical comparable sales data. Historical quarterly data for Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, is accessible through the official Walmart Investor Relations website [^][^][^]. This specific information is typically located within the "Financial Results," "Quarterly Reports," and "SEC Filings" sections [^][^][^]. The data is frequently published in earnings releases and earnings presentations, which are generally available in PDF or HTML formats [^][^][^].
Detailed comparable sales data explicitly excludes fuel price volatility. These reports present precise figures for U.S. comparable sales, often segmented by transaction count and average ticket size, with fuel explicitly excluded from the metric [^][^][^]. Walmart defines comparable sales as sales from stores and clubs that have been operational for the previous 12 months, a definition that includes sales from remodels, relocations, expansions, and eCommerce [^][^][^]. This comparable sales metric is reported separately to adjust for the inherent volatility of fuel prices [^][^][^].
9. Which macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index and retail sales data, are most correlated with Walmart's historical sales performance?
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Unemployment rates, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and wage growth [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Impact of Unemployment | Higher unemployment typically correlates with lower sales [^] |
| Core Sales KPI | Comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth, driven by transaction volume, unit growth, and category mix [^][^][^] |
Walmart's sales performance links to key macroeconomic indicators. Walmart's historical sales performance is closely correlated with several macroeconomic indicators that the company monitors internally to assess customer health and spending. These key indicators include unemployment rates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and wage growth [^][^][^].
Macroeconomic factors profoundly influence consumer purchasing power and sales. Higher unemployment generally correlates with decreased sales [^]. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, presents a complex relationship; it can negatively impact sales by reducing consumer purchasing power or increasing the cost of goods, although Walmart's focus on essential items provides some resilience [^][^][^]. Economic uncertainty and tariff environments are also recognized by Walmart as factors influencing consumer confidence, disposable income, and overall product costs, which can affect future comparable sales [^][^][^].
Comparable sales growth is a core Walmart performance metric. Walmart considers comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth as a core Key Performance Indicator (KPI), driven by transaction volume, unit growth, and category mix [^][^][^]. While fuel prices impact the fuel-included metric, Walmart specifically tracks fuel-excluded growth to isolate the underlying retail performance from the volatility of energy markets [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Walmart is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings on August 20, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] . (WMT) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports - TipRanks.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. A key forward-looking metric will be comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for Q2 fiscal year 2027, which is slated for disclosure in this report [^][^][^]. No current prediction market data exists for this specific metric [^][^][^].
Bullish and bearish catalysts for Walmart typically revolve around consumer spending patterns, eCommerce penetration rates, general merchandise category performance, and tariff resolutions [^] . The previous Q2 FY2026, for the three months ended July 31, 2025, showed U.S. comparable sales growth excluding fuel of 4.70% per the 10-Q filing [^][^][^][^]. The earnings transcript for the same period cited 4.60% [^][^][^][^]. This performance was generally bullish for Walmart’s core retail momentum, with eCommerce contributing 4.00% to comparable sales [^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 19, 2026
- Closes: September 19, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Walmart is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings on August 20, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: A key forward-looking metric will be comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for Q2 fiscal year 2027, which is slated for disclosure in this report [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: No current prediction market data exists for this specific metric [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish and bearish catalysts for Walmart typically revolve around consumer spending patterns, eCommerce penetration rates, general merchandise category performance, and tariff resolutions [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
