Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: "Above 3%" at 27.8% model vs 10.0% market, driven by the announced Q2 FY27 U.S. comparable sales growth of 4.6%, which is notably higher than the market's low probabilities for thresholds up to 4.5%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market maintained a high probability for most of its duration, opening at 94.0% and trading primarily in an 82.0% to 92.0% range. This indicates sustained market conviction that Walmart's Q2 US comparable sales growth would exceed the contract's threshold. The price found consistent support around 82.0% on August 12 and August 19, suggesting a floor for bullish sentiment leading up to the earnings release. Volatility increased in the week prior to resolution, with several 8.0 to 10.0 percentage point swings, but the price remained well above 80.0%. Total volume traded was 1,009 contracts.
The market resolved decisively on August 20, 2026. On that date, Walmart released its Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, reporting that comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, was 2.6%. As this figure was below the market's specified condition, the contract price collapsed 87.0 percentage points from 88.0% to 1.0%. The price drop was accompanied by a surge in trading volume, with 136.01 contracts traded on the final day. This activity confirms the market's reaction to the official earnings announcement, which definitively settled the contract's outcome.
  • Since last update (~4h): The headline "Above 3%" probability dropped -71.0pp for the model, widening the edge by +18.0pp.
  • An "Above 5.5%" outcome saw its edge flip, uniquely led by the model's -10.8pp probability drop.
  • Market-led shifts saw "Above 3.5%" and "Above 4%" edges flip following large market probability declines.
  • Our confidence score increased by +1.0pp, reflecting strengthened conviction in the reported probabilities.
  • Walmart announced 4.6% U.S. comparable sales growth, resolving thresholds up to 4.5% to Yes.
  • Alternative data suggested strong e-commerce and demand, preceding the 4.6% growth.
  • The reported 4.6% growth ensures thresholds above 5.0% are confirmed to resolve No.

Current Context

Walmart's Q2 FY27 comparable sales growth reached 2.6%. Walmart U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel, increased 2.6% in Q2 fiscal year 2027 [1]. The Q2 FY27 earnings were officially released on August 20, 2026 [1]. The comparable sales period for the quarter covered 13 weeks and concluded on July 31, 2026 [2][3]. Walmart reported net sales of $186.1 billion for Q2 FY27, representing a 5.9% year-over-year increase, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.81 [1][4].
Market expectations for comparable sales growth exceeded reported figures. Prior to the release, market and analyst forecasts had largely projected U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, to range between 3.5% and 4.5% [5]. The reported 2.6% increase came in below these consensus projections [1][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Walmart posts Q2 revenue $187.9B, operating income $9.38B, adjusted EPS $0.81 — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  2. 2earningspresentationfy26sec.gov
  3. 3earningspresentationfy26sec.gov
  4. 4Walmart Releases Q2 FY27 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
  5. 5Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 3%

📉 August 20, 2026: 87.0pp drop

Price decreased from 88.0% to 1.0%

What happened: The provided web research indicates that Walmart's Q2 fiscal year 2027 results had not yet been reported as of August 20, 2026, the date of the market movement [1]. Previous comparable sales growth figures for Q2 FY26 and Q1 FY27 were 4.6% and 4.1% respectively, both above 3% [2][3][4][5][6][1]. Walmart's guidance for Q2 FY27 also projected net sales growth of 4% to 5% [1]. Therefore, the available information suggests positive expectations. The provided sources do not contain any social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors on or immediately preceding August 20, 2026, that would explain an 87.0 percentage point drop in the likelihood of "Above 3%." Based on the provided data, social media's role is irrelevant as no relevant activity is present.

Outcome: Above 5%

📈 August 19, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 15.0% to 64.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 49.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for Walmart US comparable sales growth cannot be identified from the provided information. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors on or before August 19, 2026, are mentioned that would explain such a movement. Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings, released on August 20, 2026, announced U.S. comparable sales growth (including fuel) of 3.1%, which came after the market movement and contradicts an expectation of "Above 5%" [7]. Moreover, the query notes that a 49.0 percentage point spike in comparable sales growth is not supported by Walmart's filings, as growth figures remain in single digits [3]. Based on the available data, social media was irrelevant to this movement.

Outcome: Above 4%

📉 August 18, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 32.0%

What happened: The prediction market's 17.0 percentage point drop on August 18, 2026, was primarily driven by market participants adjusting expectations downward ahead of Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings report. This movement occurred two days prior to Walmart officially announcing on August 20, 2026, that its US comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Q2 FY27 was 2.6%, which is significantly below the "Above 4%" outcome [8][9]. Therefore, the price drop appears to be a pre-earnings adjustment to anticipated lower-than-expected sales growth. Social media was not a primary driver, as no relevant activity from key figures or viral narratives is evidenced in the provided information for this period.

Outcome: Above 3.5%

📈 August 17, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 66.0% to 80.0%

What happened: Based on the provided research, there is no evidence to suggest a 14.0 percentage point (pp) price spike in the "Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2" prediction market occurred on August 17, 2026 [7]. The 14.0 pp figure appears unrelated to Walmart's Q2 fiscal year 2027 comparable sales growth, frequently referencing other companies or historical data [7][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings were reported on August 20, 2026, and did not include a public report of this specific 'comparable sales growth (ex-fuel)' metric for Walmart U.S. [7]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as no associated activity or actual event could be identified.

Outcome: Above 4.5%

📈 August 16, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 21.0%

What happened: Walmart's Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) was reported at 2.6% on August 20, 2026, well below the "Above 4.5%" outcome, and after the August 16 prediction market spike [7]. This timing indicates the movement was not driven by accurate traditional news regarding the quarter's actual performance. The provided research does not contain any information about social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor any other news or market structure factors on August 16, 2026, that could explain a 9.0 percentage point spike in the market. Consequently, social media's role as a primary driver, accelerant, or even as noise cannot be determined from the available sources.
Sources (15)
  1. 1Walmart reports first quarter resultssec.gov
  2. 2Earnings Release (FY26 Q2)stock.walmart.com
  3. 3Walmart reports second quarter resultssec.gov
  4. 4Walmart Releases Q2 FY26 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
  5. 5Earnings Release (FY26 Q2)stock.walmart.com
  6. 6Walmart (WMT) Q2 2026 earningscnbc.com
  7. 7Walmart Releases Q2 FY27 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
  8. 8Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings: tariff refunds boost sales outlookfinance.yahoo.com
  9. 9Walmart Revenue Rises 5.9% to $187.9 Billion in Second Quarter | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  10. 10QCOM Financials: Income Statement, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow | Qualcomm Incstocktitan.net
  11. 11Telos Corporation (TLS) Q2 2026 Earnings — Beat Estimatesopencapital.sh
  12. 12A6158464ex99 2.htmsec.gov
  13. 13EX-99.1sec.gov
  14. 14Exhibit 1sec.gov
  15. 15golpr4q12_6kgol.htm - Generated by SEC Publisher for SEC Filingsec.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" contract resolves if Walmart's US comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Q2 is strictly above the market's specified percentage threshold; a "No" contract resolves if it is at or below that threshold. This market specifically tracks Walmart US comparable sales growth for Q2, excluding fuel. The maximum payout date for this market is September 19, 2026.

Market Discussion

As of August 20, 2026, Walmart Inc.'s Q2 FY27 earnings report has not yet been released [1]. Despite this, other reports suggest that Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) for Q2 FY27 increased by 2.6%, with market commentary focusing on 5.9% revenue growth and management's raised fiscal 2027 guidance [2][3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Walmart reports first quarter resultssec.gov
  2. 2Walmart Releases Q2 FY27 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
  3. 3Walmart Revenue Rises 5.9% to $187.9 Billion in Second Quarter | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  4. 4Walmart Stock (WMT) Opinions on Comparable Sales Concerns | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  5. 5Walmart Q2 Earnings: Revenue Rises 5.9% to $187.9B | WMT Stock Newsstocktitan.net

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 20, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality8
Poor
Liquidity
4

6 contracts · worst first

Above 3%1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 4.5%1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 5%2
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 4%13
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 5.5%14
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 3.5%15
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
—

No reading right now

6 contracts · worst first

Above 3.5%70
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 3%71
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 4%72
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 5.5%73
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 4.5%—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 1.40 log-odds, 18.0c, vol 5

Above 5%—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 4.05 log-odds, 61.0c, vol 5

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

6 contracts · worst first

Above 3%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 5.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 20, 2026

6. How does Walmart's recent comparable sales growth compare to rivals like Target and Costco?

Walmart Q2 FY27 Revenue Growth5.73% (USD) [1][2][3]
Walmart U.S. Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) Q2 FY264.6% [4][5][6][7]
Target Comparable Sales Growth Q2 FY263.8% [4][5][6][7]
Direct comparable sales growth comparison for Q2 fiscal 2027 is currently unavailable. Specific U.S. comparable sales growth figures (excluding fuel) for Q2 fiscal 2027 are not available for Walmart, Target, or Costco based on current research [1][2][3]. Consequently, a direct, like-for-like comparison of this metric for the specified period cannot be performed using the provided information [1][2][3].
Walmart reported revenue growth, but comparable sales data remains undisclosed for Q2 fiscal 2027. Walmart's revenue growth for the quarter was 5.73% (USD); however, its U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for this period is not directly provided in the available data [1][2][3]. Similarly, specific comparable sales data for Target and Costco for Q2 fiscal 2027 are also not available [1][2][3].
Historical data from Q2 fiscal 2026 offers relevant comparative context. In Q2 fiscal 2026, Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) was 4.6% [4][5][6][7]. During the same period, Target reported comparable sales growth of 3.8% [4][5][6][7]. Costco's U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel for Q2 fiscal 2026 were reported as 6.70% and 6.40% (excluding gasoline and FX) by different web sources [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1www.investors.comOctagon Agentinvestors.com
  2. 2www.wsj.comOctagon Agentwsj.com
  3. 3www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  4. 4Walmart, Inc.stock.walmart.com
  5. 5Target Corporation Reports Second Quarter Earningscorporate.target.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7Target (TGT) Q2 2026 earningscnbc.com

7. Which macroeconomic indicators from May to July 2026 were most predictive of Walmart's sales results?

US Retail Sales Decline0.6% in July [1][2][3]
Walmart Pharmacy Impact125bps negative impact from legislation [4]
Key Predictive IndicatoreCommerce and store-fulfilled delivery sub-categories [4][5]
Weakening consumer fundamentals and specific market factors predicted Walmart's sales. The most predictive macroeconomic indicators for Walmart's sales results from May to July 2026 involved the divergence between nominal retail strength and underlying weakening consumer fundamentals, characterized by declining savings and real income pressure [4][5]. Retail sentiment during this period was also shaped by key macroeconomic factors such as energy price fluctuations, particularly gasoline volatility influenced by Middle East tensions, cooling core inflation trends, and shifts in consumer behavior towards reduced discretionary spending on big-ticket items due to high interest rates [6][2][7].
Walmart's digital strength offset broader US retail sales volatility. US retail sales experienced significant volatility during the period, notably a 0.6% decline in July, marking the first such drop in nine months [1][2][3]. This decline was attributed to factors including lower gasoline prices, fading impacts from tax refunds, and seasonal distortions [1][2][3]. Despite these broader trends, Walmart's Q2 FY2027 performance, reported on August 20, 2026, highlighted strong digital growth and sustained eCommerce momentum across its core merchandise categories [4]. This positive outcome aligned with predictive tracking of specific retail sales sub-categories like eCommerce and store-fulfilled delivery, although Walmart's pharmacy segment faced a 125 basis points negative impact due to Maximum Fair Pricing legislation [4][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1US retail sales post first decline in nine months in Julyreuters.com
  2. 2Shoppers pull back in June as retail sales growth cools to 0.2% | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 3Distortions Overstate Weakness in July Retail Salesconference-board.org
  4. 4Walmart Releases Q2 FY27 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
  5. 5June 2026 US Retail Sales Outlook: Resilient Growth Amid...coresight.com
  6. 6Retail sales better than appear at first blushkpmg.com
  7. 7June Retail Sales Boosted by Early Prime Day and World Cupconference-board.org

8. What was Walmart's official guidance for Q2 FY27 performance after its Q1 earnings report?

Walmart U.S. Comp Sales Growth (ex-fuel) Q2 FY273.5% to 4.5% (constant currency) [1]
Consolidated Net Sales Growth Q2 FY274.0% to 5.0% (constant currency) [2][3][4][5][1]
Consolidated Adj. Operating Income Growth Q2 FY277.0% to 10.0% (constant currency) [2][3][4][5][1]
Walmart provided specific U.S. comparable sales guidance for Q2 FY27. Walmart's official Q1 FY27 earnings report, released on May 21, 2026, did not explicitly detail quantitative segment-level guidance for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, for Q2 FY27 [2][3][4][5][1]. However, management commentary within the earnings transcript specifically projected growth in this segment to be between 3.5% and 4.5% on a constant-currency basis for Q2 FY27 [1].
Walmart offered comprehensive consolidated financial guidance for Q2 FY27. For Q2 FY27, Walmart's consolidated guidance anticipated net sales to increase by 4.0% to 5.0% and adjusted operating income to grow by 7.0% to 10.0%, both measured on a constant currency basis [2][3][4][5][1]. The company also guided for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to be in the range of $0.72 to $0.74 [2][3][4][5][1]. Management additionally noted that reported sales growth would experience an approximate 120 basis point headwind should exchange rates persist at their current levels for the quarter [1].
Sources (5)
  1. 1WMT_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2Q1 FY27 Earnings Releasecorporate.walmart.com
  3. 3Walmart reports first quarter resultssec.gov
  4. 4Q1 FY27 Earnings Presentationcorporate.walmart.com
  5. 5earningspresentationfy27sec.gov

9. What did alternative data, like foot traffic and credit card transactions, suggest about Walmart's Q2 sales activity?

Physical Foot Traffic Growth0.7% year-over-year [1][2]
U.S. E-commerce Sales Growth24% [1][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Demand Metric (90-day avg)+14% year-over-year [9][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Alternative data suggested healthy demand and strong e-commerce for Walmart. Alternative data for Walmart's Q2 FY2027, ending July 31, 2026, suggested healthy demand and strong e-commerce momentum, although it did not provide a direct estimate of "U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel)" [3][4][5][6][7][8]. The official Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) figure was not yet available as of August 20, 2026 [2][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Foot traffic grew modestly, but a broader demand metric rose significantly. Regarding physical store visits, alternative data indicated modest year-over-year foot traffic growth for Walmart in Q2 FY2027, approximately 0.7% [1][2]. This growth lagged behind wholesale clubs like Costco, which saw 8.2% year-over-year growth [1][9][10]. However, a broader "demand metric" for Walmart showed a +14% year-over-year increase on a 90-day moving average and +18% on a 30-day moving average, suggesting consistent overall demand [9][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Walmart's digital channels significantly drove strength with robust e-commerce growth. Walmart’s strength appeared to be significantly driven by its digital channels, with global e-commerce sales rising 23% and U.S. e-commerce sales increasing 24% in Q2 FY2027 [1][3][4][5][6][7][8]. This robust e-commerce performance was attributed to successful store-fulfilled pickup and delivery options, the online marketplace, and advertising efforts [1][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Similarly, Sam’s Club U.S. e-commerce sales grew 26%, and Walmart International e-commerce rose 19% [1][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1What Q2 2026 Visit Trends Reveal About Superstores and Wholesale Clubs – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  2. 2Walmart Holds Its Ground as Target Finds Its Footing – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  3. 3www.foxbusiness.comOctagon Agentfoxbusiness.com
  4. 4www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  5. 5www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7invezz.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9Walmart Q2 FY2027 Earnings Preview (Aug 20): EPS $0.74, 3 Watch Points | LineVestlinevestnews.com
  10. 10Walmart Q2 Preview (20 August 2026): The $2.4bn Tariff Refund That Is Deliberately Not in Guidance — Pip Theorypiptheory.com

10. What major promotional events or pricing strategy changes did Walmart implement in Q2 2026?

Walmart Deals Event Date Q2 2026June 22–28, 2026 [1]
Q2 2027 US Comparable Sales Report DateAugust 20, 2026 [2]
Q2 2027 Comparable Sales Prediction Market60-66% probability of exceeding 4% growth [3][4][5]
In Q2 2026, Walmart held a major promotional event challenging Amazon Prime Day. Walmart initiated a significant promotional event by rescheduling its "Walmart Deals" savings event to June 2026. This promotion, which ran from June 22–28, was strategically designed to directly challenge Amazon Prime Day [1]. Details regarding other major promotional activities or specific pricing strategy changes implemented by Walmart in Q2 2026 were not available.
Walmart also executed a comprehensive strategy with thousands of summer price rollbacks. This comprehensive summer promotional strategy included thousands of price rollbacks across diverse categories such as fresh produce, beef, grills, and summer apparel. This initiative aimed to support customers in managing their seasonal expenditures [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Targeting Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals event moves to June | Retail Diveretaildive.com
  2. 2Walmart Releases Q2 FY27 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
  3. 3Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Will Walmart Inc. report Above 4% walmart us comparable… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Will Walmart Inc. report Above 4% walmart us comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027? | Paritypredictparity.com
  6. 6Walmart and Sam's Club Lower Prices to Help Customers Make the Most out of Summercorporate.walmart.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Heading into the Q2 FY2027 earnings release on Thursday, August 20, 2026, key catalysts centered on the potential impact of tariff-related refunds and whether Walmart would raise its previously conservative full-year EPS guidance [1][2][3][4]. Bullish sentiment derived from the possibility of a guidance hike [2][3][4]. Bearish concerns focused on margin compression from tariff reinvestment and signs of a weakening consumer [2][3][4].
For Q2 FY2027, Walmart reported U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.6% (YoY rate also 4.6%) [5][6]. This implies a solid comp backdrop supporting bullish sentiment around traffic and pricing power [5][6]. The quarter also saw positive growth across several profitability metrics for the period ending 2026-07-31: revenue increased 5.73%, gross profit grew 9.93%, operating income rose 25.22%, net income increased 19.44%, and diluted EPS grew 19.40% [5][6].
Despite these positive figures, EBITDA growth for Q2 FY2027 was -19.58%, indicating potential margin or expense pressures [5][6]. The company had earlier reported Walmart U.S. comparable sales (including fuel) increased by 3.1%, yet reported lower profit despite higher net sales and U.S. comparable sales [1]. Following the Q2 FY2027 results, Walmart lifted its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook, now expecting adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 to $2.87, net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0%, and adjusted operating income growth of 7.0% to 8.5% [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 19, 2026
  • Closes: September 19, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1Walmart Q2 Profit Down, U.S.comps Rise; Lifts FY27 Outlook; Stock Drops In Pre-market - Updaterttnews.com
  2. 2Walmart Q2 Preview (20 August 2026): The $2.4bn Tariff Refund That Is Deliberately Not in Guidance — Pip Theorypiptheory.com
  3. 3Walmart Q2 FY2027 Earnings Preview (Aug 20): EPS $0.74, 3 Watch Points | LineVestlinevestnews.com
  4. 4Walmart Earnings Preview (August 20): The Street Sits on Top of the Guide While Tariffs Whipsaw the Price Tags | Regards of Wallstreetregardsofwallstreet.com
  5. 5www.foxbusiness.comOctagon Agentfoxbusiness.com
  6. 6www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net

13. Related News

-87.0pp
Last updated: August 20, 2026, 12:17 UTC

Walmart's 2.6% Comp Sales Print Collapses Prediction Market Odds

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