Short Answer

The market considers Williams-Sonoma's total comparable brand revenue growth unlikely to exceed 3% in Q3 2026, priced at 0.0%, despite Q2 2026 growth of 6.2% and full-year fiscal 2026 guidance of 4.0-6.5%. The model diverges, showing a 20.0% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's probability surged following the release of Williams-Sonoma's second-quarter 2026 financial results. The company reported strong performance for the quarter ending August 2, 2026, including comparable brand revenue growth of 6.2% and total revenue growth of 6.7%. This positive data appears to be the primary driver behind the market re-pricing from a 1.0% probability to 95.0% on September 1, as traders anticipate the growth trend will continue into the third quarter.
The price level of 95.0% indicates a high degree of confidence in positive comparable brand revenue growth for Q3. However, this entire price move has occurred on zero traded contracts. The current price reflects the initial assessment based on public financial data, but it has not been confirmed by significant trading volume.
  • Williams-Sonoma's Q3 comparable brand revenue growth likely positive, given Q2's 6.2%. Full-year fiscal 2026 guidance calls for 4.0% to 6.5% comparable brand revenue growth. * Management has accounted for macro headwinds; July web sales reached $111.8 million.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 4% 88.0% 20.0% Market higher by 68.0pp
Above 3% 99.0% 20.0% Market higher by 79.0pp
Above 7% 5.0% 5.0% Model and market aligned
Above 6.5% 7.0% 10.0% Model higher by 3.0pp
Above 4.5% 70.0% 20.0% Market higher by 50.0pp

Current Context

Williams-Sonoma's Q3 2026 financial results are not yet reported. As of September 1, 2026, the company has released financial results through the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which concluded on August 2, 2026 [1][2][3]. In Q2 2026, Williams-Sonoma reported comparable brand revenue growth of 6.2% and total revenue growth of 6.7% [1][2][3][4]. GAAP diluted EPS was $2.84, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $2.10 [1][2][3].
The company updated its full fiscal year 2026 guidance. Following Q2 results, Williams-Sonoma now projects comparable brand revenue growth in the range of 4.0% to 6.5% and net revenue growth from 4.7% to 7.2% for fiscal 2026 [1][3][5][4]. A distinction exists in fiscal calendar indexing: some databases refer to a "Q3 2026" period ending in late 2025, which reported 4% comparable brand revenue growth in November 2025 [6][7][8]. This differs from the current fiscal 2026, where the third quarter has not yet concluded, and its financials are not yet available [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Williams-Sonoma, Inc. - Williams-Sonoma, Inc. announces strong second quarter 2026 resultsir.williams-sonomainc.com
  2. 2Williams-Sonoma Q2 profit climbs to $338M | WSM Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  3. 3Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5Williams-Sonoma earnings analysis: questions answered...investing.com
  6. 6Transcript: Williams-Sonoma, Inc., Q3 2026 Earnings Call, Nov 19, 2025 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  7. 7Williams-Sonoma Pushes Back Against Headwinds To Post Solid Q3 | HomePage Newshomepagenews.com
  8. 8WSM Transcript - FY2026Q3 AI Summaryintellectia.ai
  9. 9https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/719955/000071995526000203/0000719955-26-000203.txtsec.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 31, 2026: 88.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 89.0%

Outcome: Above 3.5%

What happened: The primary driver was likely Williams-Sonoma's Q2 2026 earnings announcement on August 26, 2026, which reported a comparable brand revenue growth of 6.2% [1][2]. This strong Q2 growth, significantly above the prediction market's "Above 3.5%" outcome threshold, appears to have led the 88.0 percentage point spike on August 31, 2026, as participants likely inferred strong Q3 performance or conflated Q2 results with Q3 expectations, potentially reinforced by the earnings call held that same day [3]. There is no evidence that social media activity played a role, making it irrelevant to this price movement.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/719955/000071995526000203/0000719955-26-000203.txtsec.gov
  3. 3Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Williams-Sonoma brand growth in Q3: Above 5%" market, a YES resolution occurs if Williams-Sonoma's Total Comparable Brand Revenue Growth for Q3 is greater than 5%. A NO resolution occurs if the growth is 5% or less. The market ends trading on November 18, 9:00 AM EST, and no special settlement conditions are specified.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 3% $0.99 $0.07 99%
Above 4% $0.90 $0.19 88%
Above 4.5% $0.78 $0.31 70%
Above 5% $0.60 $0.49 52%
Above 5.5% $0.41 $0.69 40%
Above 6.5% $0.15 $0.94 7%
Above 7% $0.05 $0.99 5%
Above 3.5% $0.98 $0.12 0%
Above 6% $0.25 $0.85 0%

Market Discussion

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) has not yet reported its Q3 2026 financial results, so specific Williams-Sonoma brand growth figures for Q3 remain unavailable as of September 1, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. However, following strong Q2 2026 performance with 6.2% comparable brand revenue growth, management announced it raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance, now expecting comparable brand revenue growth of 4.0% to 6.5% [1][5][6][7]. Wall Street anticipates Q3 FY2026 EPS of $2.13 on $1.97 billion in revenue for the overall company, and social media sentiment for WSM is largely bullish with an aggregate score of 82/100 [8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2wsm-20260802sec.gov
  3. 3static.seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Williams-Sonoma, Inc. announces strong second quarter 2026 resultsbusiness.times-online.com
  7. 7https://finance.biggo.com/quote/WSM/earnings-call/US_WSM_2026-08-26finance.biggo.com
  8. 8Williams-Sonoma earnings analysis: questions answered...investing.com
  9. 9Williams Sonoma (WSM) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 82/100 | AltIndexaltindex.com

5. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 1, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 60 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score68Caution
Trade quality20% of score37High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score60Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality37
Order book is critically thinHigh Risk
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
37High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 69 across 3 legs

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 3%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality68Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
68 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality72Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
72 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 6.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality67Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
67 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 7d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 7%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

6. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Williams-Sonoma's Q3 2026 comparable brand revenue growth?

Q2 2026 Comparable Brand Revenue Growth6.2% [1][2][3][4][5]
FY 2026 Comparable Brand Revenue Growth Guidance (Current)4.0% to 6.5% [2][3][4][5]
FY 2026 Comparable Brand Revenue Growth Guidance (Previous)2.0% to 6.0% [2][3][4][5]
Wall Street has not published a Q3 2026 comparable brand revenue consensus. As of September 1, 2026, no specific Wall Street consensus has been identified regarding Williams-Sonoma's Q3 2026 comparable brand revenue growth, and the company has not yet reported its Q3 2026 results [1][2][3][4][5].
Full-year guidance and Q2 results are current focal points. Instead, analysts and Williams-Sonoma management are currently focusing on the recently reported Q2 2026 results and the company's full-year guidance [1][2][3][4][5]. Williams-Sonoma reported a comparable brand revenue growth of 6.2% for Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. For the full fiscal year 2026, management has provided guidance for annual comparable brand revenue growth in the range of 4.0% to 6.5% [2][3][4][5]. This represents an increase from their previous guidance range of 2.0% to 6.0% [2][3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Williams Sonoma (WSM) Q3 2026 Earnings247wallst.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Williams-Sonoma, Inc. announces strong second quarter 2026 resultsbusiness.times-online.com
  5. 5Williams-Sonoma Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcriptdaytraders.com

7. Which of Williams-Sonoma's core brands—Pottery Barn, West Elm, or the namesake brand—is positioned to be the primary driver of growth in Q3 2026?

Q3 2026 Brand-Specific Comparable Revenue GrowthNot available for Pottery Barn, West Elm, and Williams-Sonoma namesake brands [1][2][3][4][5][6]
FY2026 Total Comparable Brand Revenue Growth Guidance4% to 6.5% [7][8][9]
Williams Sonoma Brand Q2 2026 Comparable Revenue Growth7.6% [10]
Specific Q3 2026 brand growth drivers cannot be determined from available data. The necessary total comparable brand revenue growth percentages for Pottery Barn, West Elm, and the Williams-Sonoma (namesake) brand for Q3 2026 are not provided in the bound facts [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Therefore, based on the available research, it is not possible to determine which of Williams-Sonoma's core brands is positioned to be the primary driver of growth for that specific quarter.
Williams-Sonoma projects broad-based growth for the full fiscal year 2026. The company increased its guidance for total comparable brand revenue growth to a range of 4% to 6.5% for the full fiscal year 2026 [7][8][9]. However, management commentary did not specify a single brand as the primary growth driver for Q3 2026 [7][8][9]. Instead, company executives highlighted strong execution and momentum across the entire portfolio, indicating growth as broad-based across all brands [7][8][9][1][2][3][4][5][6]. Management stated, "We saw significant improvement in Pottery Barn, continued strength in West Elm and the Williams Sonoma brand and strong momentum across our children's business" and also that "Every brand delivered strong results in Q2" [10][11].
Q2 2026 saw the namesake brand lead in comparable revenue growth. In Q2 2026, the Williams Sonoma namesake brand achieved the highest comparable revenue growth among the company's major brands with a 7.6% increase [10][11][7][9][1][2][3][4][5][6]. West Elm followed with a 6.4% increase, and Pottery Barn experienced a 5.1% rise in comparable revenue [10][11][7][9][1][2][3][4][5][6]. However, these brand-by-brand comparable performances are specifically for Q2 2026 and do not indicate the primary growth driver for the Q3 2026 period in question.
Sources (11)
  1. 1WSM_Q22027, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2WSM_Q22027, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3WSM_Q22027, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4WSM_Q22027, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5WSM_Q22027, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  7. 7Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8Williams-Sonoma Cites Tariff Refunds, AI Following Q2 Comp Gains Across Its Portfolio | HomePage Newshomepagenews.com
  9. 9Everything up for Williams-Sonoma in second quarterfurnituretoday.com
  10. 10Williams-Sonoma revenue from AI assistant grows 620% in Q2digitalcommerce360.com
  11. 11Williams-Sonoma, Inc. announces strong second quarter 2026 resultsbusiness.times-online.com

8. How did Williams-Sonoma's revenue growth in Q2 2026 compare to that of its key competitor, RH (Restoration Hardware)?

Williams-Sonoma Q2 2026 Total Revenue Growth6.7% [1][2][3][4]
Williams-Sonoma Q2 2026 Comparable Brand Revenue Growth6.2% [1][2][3][4]
RH Q2 2026 Projected Revenue Growth0.5%–2.5% [5][6]
Williams-Sonoma's Q2 2026 revenue growth significantly surpassed competitor RH's projections. In the second quarter of 2026, Williams-Sonoma reported robust financial results, achieving a total revenue growth of 6.7% and total comparable brand revenue growth of 6.2% [1][2][3][4]. This strong performance contrasts with RH (Restoration Hardware), which had previously projected a lower revenue growth of 0.5%–2.5% for Q2 2026, as indicated in its guidance issued in June 2026 [5][6].
Williams-Sonoma updated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance after strong Q2 performance. Following these strong second-quarter results, Williams-Sonoma revised its financial projections for the full fiscal year 2026. The company now forecasts annual net revenue growth to be in the range of 4.7% to 7.2%, with comparable brand revenue growth expected to be between 4.0% and 6.5% [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Williams-Sonoma, Inc. announces strong second quarter...ir.williams-sonomainc.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Williams Sonoma: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending August 2, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreener Hong Konghk.marketscreener.com
  4. 4Williams-Sonoma Q2 profit climbs to $338M | WSM Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  5. 5RH posts Q1 loss, lifts 2026 outlook | RH 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  6. 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1528849/000110465926072941/rh-20260611xex99d2.htmsec.gov
  7. 7Williams-Sonoma Won Over Wall Street With Another...finimize.com
  8. 8Williams-Sonoma beats Q2 estimates, raises fiscal 2026 outlookproactiveinvestors.com

9. What do high-frequency alternative datasets, such as web traffic or credit card transactions, show for Williams-Sonoma's brands so far in Q3 2026?

Online Sales July 2026$111.8 million (williams-sonoma.com) [1]
Sessions July 20269.2 million (williams-sonoma.com) [1]
Web Traffic June 20264.93 million visits (williams-sonoma.com) [2]
Williams-Sonoma's primary website showed strong online sales in July. In July 2026, williams-sonoma.com generated $111.8 million in online sales [1]. During this month, the website recorded 9.2 million sessions and achieved a conversion rate between 4.00% and 4.50% [1]. This data specifically covers williams-sonoma.com and does not include performance for August or September 2026, nor does it cover other Williams-Sonoma brands [1].
June web visits for williams-sonoma.com decreased slightly from May. In June 2026, williams-sonoma.com experienced 4.93 million web visits, which marked a 3.02% decrease compared to May 2026 [2]. Williams-Sonoma is currently in its fiscal year 2026. As of September 1, 2026, the company had not yet released its Q3 2026 financial results, though it has provided full-year guidance for comparable brand revenue growth in the range of +4.0% to +6.5% for fiscal 2026 [3].
Comprehensive Q3 2026 data for all brands remains unavailable. The available alternative dataset information does not include credit card transactions for any of Williams-Sonoma's brands for Q3 2026 [3]. Furthermore, web traffic or sales figures for brands other than williams-sonoma.com, or for the entire Q3 2026 period (August and September), are not provided [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1williams-sonoma.com eCommerce Revenue | Gripsgripsintelligence.com
  2. 2williams-sonoma.com Website Traffic, Ranking, Analytics [June 2026]srush.toolspur.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov

10. How will macroeconomic trends, such as the Consumer Confidence Index and housing market data in Q3 2026, likely impact Williams-Sonoma's sales?

Williams-Sonoma comparable brand revenue growth (fiscal 2026 guidance)4% to 6.5% [1][2][3]
Williams-Sonoma total net revenue growth (fiscal 2026 guidance)4.7% to 7.2% [1][2][3]
Consumer Confidence Index (August 2026)89.4 [4][5][6]
Williams-Sonoma's fiscal 2026 guidance already factors current economic conditions. In late August 2026, Williams-Sonoma updated its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting comparable brand revenue growth between 4% and 6.5% and total net revenue growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.2% [1][2][3]. Management explicitly stated that these projections do not incorporate a housing recovery and assume no material changes to the current macroeconomic environment, housing turnover, or interest rates [1][2][3][7].
The third quarter of 2026 saw continued macroeconomic pressures. As of Q3 2026, consumer confidence remained low, with the August 2026 Conference Board Index at 89.4 [4][5][6]. The housing market also experienced significant pressure, marked by mortgage rates exceeding 6.54% and low turnover, leading to Q3 new home sales falling short of expectations at 607,000 units [8]. These factors contributed to demand-side challenges in the home furnishings industry, which was among the few retail categories to record year-over-year sales declines in mid-2026 [9][10][11].
These Q3 2026 trends align with Williams-Sonoma's existing forecasts. Given that Williams-Sonoma's management had not factored in a housing recovery or material macroeconomic changes into their guidance, the reported low consumer confidence and pressured housing market in Q3 2026 are consistent with the environment already considered in their projections for fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][7][4][5][6][8]. Therefore, the described macroeconomic trends for Q3 2026 are likely already incorporated into Williams-Sonoma's projected sales growth for the fiscal year [1][2][3][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_WSM_2026-08-26finance.biggo.com
  3. 3Williams-Sonoma Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcriptdaytraders.com
  4. 4US Consumer Confidenceconference-board.org
  5. 5US Consumer Confidenceconference-board.org
  6. 6United States Michigan Consumer Sentimenttradingeconomics.com
  7. 7Documentsec.gov
  8. 8U.S. Q3 2026 New Home Sales Fall to 607,000 Units, Missing Expectations; High Interest Rates Continue to Suppress Housing Market Demand | DataTrackdatatrack.trendforce.com
  9. 9U.S. Furniture Retail Sales Slip Again as the Sector Becomes July’s Only Year-Over-Year Decliner - The Furniture Timesthefurnituretimes.com
  10. 10U.S. Home Improvement Sector: Cautious Consumers and Housing Affordability Pressures Dampen Volume-Led Recovery in 2026 | Morningstar DBRSdbrs.morningstar.com
  11. 11In the home sector, ‘the weak will get weaker’ this year | Retail Diveretaildive.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) delivered Q2 2026 total comparable brand revenue growth of 6.2% [1]. For fiscal 2026, the company updated its full-year guidance in Q2 2026, expecting comparable brand revenue growth of 4.0% to 6.5% and an operating margin of 17.8% to 18.2% [1][2][3]. Key bullish catalysts include consistent market share gains despite a flat industry, robust performance from emerging brands and B2B segments, and disciplined cost management through supply chain efficiencies [2][3].
Conversely, several factors present bearish risks and headwinds. These include ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, potential for persistent tariff pressures, specifically related to Sections 232, 301, and 122 policies, and the lack of a significant housing market recovery [4][3][5][1][6]. Further volatility in interest rates and the broader consumer spending environment also pose risks to company guidance and performance metrics [4][3][5][1][6].
Investors await Williams-Sonoma's Q3 2026 financial results. As of September 1, 2026, these results have not yet been released, with the earnings call expected on November 18, 2026 [2][3]. The Q2 2026 results were released on August 26, 2026 [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 18, 2027
  • Closes: March 18, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Williams-Sonoma, Inc. announces strong second quarter 2026 resultsbusiness.times-online.com
  3. 3https://finance.biggo.com/quote/WSM/earnings-call/US_WSM_2026-08-26finance.biggo.com
  4. 4Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Williams-Sonoma Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcriptdaytraders.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXWSM-26AUGCOMP-7.0: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXWSM-26AUGCOMP-6.5: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXWSM-26AUGCOMP-6.0: YES (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXWSM-26AUGCOMP-5.5: YES (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXWSM-26AUGCOMP-5.0: YES (Aug 26, 2026)