Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Toll Brothers to deliver above 2600 homes in Q3 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has traded sideways within a narrow four-point range since its inception. The price opened at 82.0%, briefly dipped to a low of 78.0% around July 9, and has since returned to its opening level. The market has established clear support at 78.0% and resistance at 82.0%. The quick reversion from the low back to the top of the range suggests consistent sentiment at the upper bound. The provided context, which notes the fiscal quarter ended July 31 with results expected in mid-to-late August, does not contain a specific catalyst to explain the temporary price drop in early July.
Total volume of 345 contracts across 38 data points indicates moderate but not deep liquidity. Trading appears to have been sporadic. The stable, high price level suggests strong and unwavering market conviction that Toll Brothers achieved its Q3 home delivery target. The price action implies the market has fully priced in a positive outcome ahead of the official earnings announcement and is waiting for confirmation.
  • Since last update (~24h): The headline model probability for "Above 2600" rose +4.3pp, flipping the edge to +1.3pp (model_led).
  • Model conviction for deliveries "Above 2700" surged by +19.3pp (model_led), flipping its edge.
  • All higher delivery outcomes (e.g., Above 2800, 2900) also saw significant model-led increases.
  • Toll Brothers consistently exceeds guidance, indicating Q3 2026 deliveries will surpass 2600 homes.
  • Historical 5% outperformance suggests deliveries likely extend above 2700 or 2800 homes.
  • Increased full-year 2026 delivery outlook further supports Q3 deliveries beyond stated guidance.

Current Context

Toll Brothers' fiscal third quarter (Q3 2026) concluded on July 31, 2026 [1]. The company has not yet released its Q3 2026 financial results, with the earnings release typically estimated between August 17–21, 2026 [2][3][4][5]. For Q3 2026, Toll Brothers provided guidance for 2,600 to 2,700 home deliveries and an average delivered price per home ranging from $965,000 to $985,000 [6][7][8][9].
Following its Q2 2026 earnings report, Toll Brothers raised its full-year 2026 delivery outlook [6][9][10]. The updated guidance for full-year 2026 deliveries is between 10,400 and 10,700 units [6][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Financial FAQs | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers (TOL) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3TOL Earnings Dates, Upcoming and Historical Toll Brothersmarketchameleon.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers (TOL) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  6. 6Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  7. 7Toll Brothers, Inc. Provides Operating Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year of 2026 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  8. 8https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/toll-brothers-sees-q3-deliveries-2600-2700-units-thefly-newstipranks.com
  9. 9Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  10. 10https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/toll-brothers-narrows-fy26-deliveries-view-to-10400-10700-from-10300-10700-thefly-newstipranks.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if Toll Brothers Inc. reports over 2700 home deliveries in Q3 2026; otherwise, it resolves "No." The market opened on May 21, 2026, and closes early if the event occurs, or by September 17, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai, and insider trading by those with material non-public information or employed by source agencies is prohibited.

Market Discussion

Toll Brothers provided Q3 2026 delivery guidance of 2,600 to 2,700 homes, with an average delivered price per home between $965,000 and $985,000 [1][2][3]. The company also raised its full-year 2026 delivery guidance to 10,400 to 10,700 units, attributing this to resilience in the luxury housing segment [4][3]. While Wall Street analyst sentiment remains generally positive with outperform ratings [5][6], retail social media sentiment has been characterized as bearish by some automated aggregators despite the company's strong financial performance [7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Stronggurufocus.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers stock holds Market Outperform at Citizens on earnings beat By Investing.cominvesting.com
  6. 6TOL Stock Price Prediction 2025-2026 | Toll Brothers Inc Forecast | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  7. 7Toll Brothers (TOL) Stocktwits: Mentions, Sentiment & Activity | AltIndexaltindex.com

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 14, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality6
Poor
Liquidity
6

6 contracts · worst first

Above 30001
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 26006
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 2700—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 2800—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 2900—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 3100—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

6 contracts · worst first

Above 300072
Confirmed · low confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 2600—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 2700—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 2800—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 2900—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 3100—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

6 contracts · worst first

Above 2600100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2700100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2800100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2900100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3000100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3100100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

5. What potential supply chain or labor market disruptions has Toll Brothers' management identified as key risks to their FY 2026 delivery targets?

Full-year 2026 delivery guidance10,400–10,700 homes [1][2]
Q3 2026 delivery projections2,600–2,700 homes [1][2]
Key identified risks to FY26 deliverySupply chain and labor market disruptions [3]
Toll Brothers identifies supply chain and labor market disruptions as key risks. Management has pinpointed the availability of qualified tradespeople and subcontractors, ongoing component shortages, and increasing costs for labor and supplies as significant challenges to their Fiscal Year 2026 delivery targets [3]. These factors, many of which are deemed beyond management's control, can result in delays and higher development costs, directly impacting the company's backlog conversion rates and overall delivery timelines [3].
Other logistical and regulatory issues also pose risks to deliveries. Additional concerns include the adequacy of utility infrastructure and services, alongside the timely processing of permits, inspections, and similar municipal actions [3]. Despite these identified challenges, Toll Brothers has increased its full-year 2026 delivery guidance to between 10,400 and 10,700 homes [1][2]. For the third quarter of 2026, the company anticipates delivering 2,600 to 2,700 homes [1][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers, Inc. Provides Operating Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year of 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers - 10-K annual report 2025companiesmarketcap.com

6. How did Toll Brothers' new order growth and backlog value in early 2026 compare to competitors like Lennar and D.R. Horton?

Toll Brothers Q2 2026 Contract Growth7% in units, 8% in dollars [1][2]
Lennar Q1 2026 New Orders Increase1% year-over-year (18,515 homes) [3][4][5]
D.R. Horton Q2 2026 Net Sales OrdersIncreased 11% year-over-year (24,992 homes) [6][7]
Toll Brothers experienced a backlog decline despite growth in new contracts. The company reported a year-over-year decrease in its quarter-end backlog value during early 2026. In Q1 2026, the backlog stood at $6.02 billion (5,051 homes), a decline from $6.94 billion (6,312 homes) in Q1 2025 [1][8]. Similarly, Q2 2026 recorded a backlog of $6.32 billion (5,394 homes), compared to $6.84 billion (6,063 homes) in Q2 2025 [1][8]. Despite this reduction in backlog value, Toll Brothers did achieve growth in net signed contracts, reporting a 7% increase in units and an 8% increase in dollars during Q2 2026 compared to the prior year [1][2].
Competitors Lennar and D.R. Horton reported increases in new orders. In contrast to Toll Brothers, these competitors both demonstrated year-over-year increases in new orders during early 2026. Lennar reported a 1% year-over-year rise in new orders, totaling 18,515 homes for its Q1 2026, and maintained a quarter-end backlog of $6.0 billion (15,588 homes) [3][4][5]. D.R. Horton showed stronger growth, with net sales orders increasing 11% year-over-year to 24,992 homes, valued at $9.2 billion, in its Q2 2026 [6][7]. As of March 31, 2026, D.R. Horton's quarter-end backlog was $6.42 billion (16,882 homes) [6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  3. 3Lennar Corp (LEN) 10-Q Quarterly Report April 2026last10k.com
  4. 4Documentapp.boardroomalpha.com
  5. 5Lennar Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsstocktitan.net
  6. 6D.R. Horton, Inc., America’s Builder, Reports Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Earnings and Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.45 Per Share – D.R. Hortoninvestor.drhorton.com
  7. 7Documentsec.gov
  8. 8Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 First Quarter Resultsglobenewswire.com

7. What is Toll Brothers' historical track record of meeting or exceeding its own quarterly home delivery guidance over the past two fiscal years?

Quarters exceeding guidance11 of 12 (pre-FY26 Q1) [1]
Average beat vs. guidanceApproximately 5% [1]
FY26 Q2 Deliveries2,491 [2]
Toll Brothers consistently exceeds quarterly home delivery guidance, demonstrating strong performance. The company has a notable history of outperforming its own projections, doing so in 11 out of 12 quarters prior to its fiscal 2026 Q1 earnings report. On average, Toll Brothers surpassed the midpoint of its guidance by approximately 5% during this period [1].
Recent fiscal 2026 quarters continue the trend of outperformance. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Toll Brothers reported 2,491 home deliveries. This figure surpassed the midpoint of the company's guidance, contributing to an approximate $110 million increase in revenue above projections. Furthermore, in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company successfully met or exceeded expectations across nearly all its key performance metrics [2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Toll Brothers, Inc.investors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 First Quarter Resultsglobenewswire.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov

8. What high-frequency public data, such as regional building permits, can serve as a leading indicator for Toll Brothers' construction activity leading into Q3 2026?

Expected Home Deliveries2,600 to 2,700 homes (Q3 2026) [1][2]
Local Construction IndicatorsCounty-level building permits, sub-permits, land approvals [3][4]
Regional Market IndicatorsHUD and Zillow market heat index, inventory, demand [5][6][7]
High-frequency public data acts as a key leading indicator for Toll Brothers. This data includes county-level building permits, various construction sub-permits (such as plumbing, electrical, and fire protection), and local land development approvals [3][4]. Tracking these specific permits and approvals is crucial because backlog conversion, representing the timeframe from order to delivery, directly impacts Toll Brothers' quarterly financial results. Construction starts are frequently tied to signed contracts, making these indicators valuable for signaling progress on upcoming construction activities across different markets [8][9].
Broader housing market conditions also influence Toll Brothers' activity and demand. The wider housing market outlook, especially factors like interest rates, affects general housing activity [10][11][12]. Regional housing market indicators from HUD and Zillow, encompassing metrics such as market heat index, inventory levels, and demand, provide essential macroeconomic context [5][6][7]. This context directly impacts Toll Brothers' local demand and the overall pace of its construction activities. The company projects delivering between 2,600 and 2,700 homes leading into the third quarter of 2026 [1][2][5][6][7].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Toll Brothers, Inc. Provides Operating Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year of 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  3. 3Toll Brothersbuildzoom.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers Inc | CheckPermitcheckpermits.com
  5. 5U.S. Housing Market Conditions: National, Regional, and Local Data and Analyses | HUD USERhuduser.gov
  6. 6Housing Data - Zillow Researchzillow.com
  7. 7FHFA House Price Indexfhfa.gov
  8. 8ANNUAL REPORT 2024investors.tollbrothers.com
  9. 9ANNUAL REPORT 2025investors.tollbrothers.com
  10. 10Leveraged Multi-Bagger?youtube.com
  11. 11The Warsh Effect on Mortgagesyoutube.com
  12. 12The Obstacles to Buying a First Homeyoutube.com

9. What macroeconomic trends, particularly in mortgage rates and new home sales, could most affect Toll Brothers' ability to meet its Q3 2026 delivery guidance?

Q3 2026 Delivery Guidance2,600 to 2,700 homes [1][2][3][4][5][6]
H2 2026 Backlog ClosuresApproximately 4,100 homes [3][7]
Mortgage RatesElevated due to geopolitical volatility [4][5][6]
Elevated mortgage rates pose a key risk to Toll Brothers' Q3 2026 deliveries. The company's ability to meet its guidance of 2,600 to 2,700 homes for the third quarter of 2026 could be affected by persistent elevated mortgage rates [1][2][3]. As of July 2026, the macroeconomic environment is characterized by these higher rates, which are influenced by factors such as geopolitical volatility, including the Iran conflict [4][5][6]. The broader housing market reflects this, with existing-home sales decreasing in June despite resilient demand, indicating mixed data [4][5][6][8][9]. Consumers are reportedly hesitant to trade their current lower mortgage rates for the higher rates available in the current market [10][11].
Toll Brothers' luxury market focus strengthens its delivery guidance resilience. Despite the challenging external macroeconomic conditions, Toll Brothers' business model, centered on the luxury housing market, has demonstrated resilience to broader affordability pressures [3][12]. This unique market positioning contributed to the company's decision to raise its full-year 2026 guidance [3][12]. Meeting the Q3 2026 delivery targets relies significantly on converting its existing backlog into closed sales, with approximately 4,100 homes projected to close from backlog during the second half of fiscal year 2026 [3][7]. This strategic focus on its luxury segment and existing pipeline allows the company to navigate potential economic risks.
Sources (12)
  1. 1Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2Toll Brothers, Inc. Provides Operating Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year of 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  3. 3Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  4. 4Mortgage Economic Review July 2026 - Mortgage Elements®mortgageelements.com
  5. 5July 2026 Mortgage Monitormortgagetech.ice.com
  6. 6Iran conflict lifts mortgage rates, but housing demand stays positivehousingwire.com
  7. 7Earnings call transcript: Toll Brothers Q2 2026 earnings beat expectations By Investing.cominvesting.com
  8. 8NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.4% Decrease in Junenar.realtor
  9. 9Realtor.com® 2026 Forecast Update: Home Price Growth To Cool Further, Trailing Inflation - Jul 8, 2026mediaroom.realtor.com
  10. 10AI Dominates Economy and Markets with Torsten Slok | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 68youtube.com
  11. 11The Obstacles to Buying a First Homeyoutube.com
  12. 12Toll Brothers Benefits From Luxury Segment's Resilience in Q2builderonline.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Toll Brothers' fiscal third quarter (Q3 2026) concluded on July 31, 2026 [1][2]. The company is expected to release its Q3 2026 earnings around August 17 18, 2026, though an official date has not been confirmed [3][4][5]. Toll Brothers provided guidance for Q3 2026, anticipating 2,600 2,700 home deliveries at an average price of $965,000 $985,000 and an adjusted home sales gross margin of 25.25% [6][7][8].
Key bullish catalysts for Toll Brothers include resilient luxury demand and strong operating leverage [7][8]. Conversely, bearish risks encompass rising interest rates, land acquisition costs, and potential slowdowns within the high-end housing market [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 17, 2026
  • Closes: September 17, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1Financial FAQs | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  2. 2What is the Fiscal Year for Toll Brothers?salesmotion.io
  3. 3Toll Brothers (TOL) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  4. 4Toll Brothers (TOL) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
  5. 5Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  6. 6Toll Brothers Reports FY 2026 Second Quarter Results | Toll Brothers Investor Relationsinvestors.tollbrothers.com
  7. 7Toll Brothers lifts 2026 delivery outlook as luxury demand holdshousingwire.com
  8. 8Toll Brothers (TOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTOL-26MAYDELI-P2425: YES (May 19, 2026)
  • KXTOL-26MAYDELI-2600: NO (May 19, 2026)
  • KXTOL-26MAYDELI-2550: NO (May 19, 2026)
  • KXTOL-26MAYDELI-2500: NO (May 19, 2026)
  • KXTOL-26MAYDELI-2450: YES (May 19, 2026)