Monster Beverage Corporation total case sales in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Monster's Q2 2026 energy drink sales of 304.9 million already cleared 295 million.
- Early Q3 (July) data indicates Monster sales outpacing the overall energy drink category.
- Declining alcohol brands are projected to have a de minimis impact on total case sales.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 335 million | 2.0% | 10.0% | Model higher by 8.0pp |
| Above 295 million | 70.0% | 63.2% | Market higher by 6.8pp |
| Above 305 million | 48.0% | 12.0% | Market higher by 36.0pp |
| Above 315 million | 14.0% | 12.0% | Market higher by 2.0pp |
| Above 265 million | 0.0% | 63.2% | Model higher by 63.2pp |
Current Context
Sources (7)
- 1Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 2Monster Beverage Corp. Financial Statements - MNSTwsj.com
- 3Monster Beverage Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results | Monster Energy Companyinvestors.monsterbevcorp.com
- 4Monster (MNST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 5Monster Beverage achieves monster results | Food Business Newsfoodbusinessnews.net
- 6Monster Beverage Declares Two-for-One Stock Splitinvestors.monsterbevcorp.com
- 7Monster's energy drinks surge as alcohol sales fall 15%thedrinksbusiness.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "YES" if Monster Beverage Corporation's total Q3 case sales, measured in 192-ounce case equivalents, are reported to be above 295 million. Conversely, it resolves "NO" if the total Q3 case sales are 295 million or below. The market closes on November 5, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 5, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 295 million | $0.70 | $0.40 | 70% |
| Above 305 million | $0.49 | $0.60 | 48% |
| Above 315 million | $0.23 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Above 335 million | $0.06 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 265 million | $0.98 | $0.12 | 0% |
| Above 275 million | $0.95 | $0.15 | 0% |
| Above 285 million | $0.90 | $0.20 | 0% |
| Above 325 million | $0.09 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Monster Beverage Corporation's Q3 2026 financial results, including total case sales, are expected in early November 2026, following Q2 2026 energy drink case sales of 304.94 million (192-ounce equivalents) [1]. While social media and retail investor sentiment remains generally bullish with an AltIndex score of 88/100, market analysts are monitoring international volume growth and U.S. volume stability, particularly given an upcoming U.S. price increase planned for Q4 2026 [2].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. What are the consensus analyst estimates for Monster Beverage's Q3 2026 case sales, and how have they trended since the Q2 earnings report?
| Q3 2026 Revenue Estimate | $2.51 billion (approx.) [1] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 EPS Expectation | $0.60 [1] |
| Q2 2026 Case Sales Volume | 304.9 million (192-ounce case equivalents) [2][3][4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 2Monster (MNST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Monster Beverage Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financialglobenewswire.com
- 4Monster Beverage (MNST) Earnings Report Q2 2026247wallst.com
- 5Monster Beverage Stock Has Outrun the Street's Mean...tikr.com
6. How does Monster Beverage's projected Q3 2026 sales growth in the energy drink sector compare to that of its primary competitor, Red Bull?
| Monster Beverage Q2 2026 Sales Growth | 21.6% (compared to Q2 2025) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Red Bull 2025 Fiscal Group Turnover Growth | 8.6% [3][4][5] |
| Monster Beverage Long-Term Revenue Growth Forecast | 8.3% per year [3][4][5] |
Sources (20)
- 1Monster Beverage Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results | Monster Energy Companyinvestors.monsterbevcorp.com
- 2Monster Beverage Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financialglobenewswire.com
- 3Red Bull - Fundamental Analysis Report 2026 (Updated)deepresearchglobal.com
- 4Red Bull Company: Giving Wiiings to People & Ideasredbull.com
- 5Red Bull Revenue 2011 to 2026: Sales, Cans & Growthbusinesstats.com
- 6Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7Washington Carbonated Beverages Tax Initiative (2010) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8FEC FORM 3docquery.fec.gov
- 9FALLS CITY INDUSTRIES, INC. v. VANCO BEVERAGE, INC. (1983) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 10REPORT OF RECEIPTSdocquery.fec.gov
- 11FEC FORM 3docquery.fec.gov
- 12CUT THE BULL PAC - committee overview | FECfec.gov
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- 20Monster Beverage Corporation total case sales in Q3kalshi.com
7. To what extent could the declining performance of Monster's alcohol brands negatively impact total case sales for Q3 2026?
| Alcohol Brands Net Sales (Q2 2026) | $32.2 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total Company Net Sales (Q2 2026) | $2.537 billion [1][2][3] |
| Alcohol Brands Segment Decline (Q2 2026) | 15.2% [1][2][3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Monster Beverage Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results | Monster Energy Companyinvestors.monsterbevcorp.com
- 2Monster's energy drinks surge as alcohol sales fall 15%thedrinksbusiness.com
- 3Monster (MNST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 4Monster Beverage | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 2.537 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
8. What do Nielsen or other retail scanner data indicate about Monster's U.S. energy drink sales trends through the first two months of Q3 2026?
| Monster Sales Growth (13-week) | 10.1% dollar sales [1] |
|---|---|
| Energy Drink Category Growth (13-week) | 6.0% dollar sales [1] |
| Monster Estimated July Sales Growth | approximately 14.3% higher [2] |
9. Which new product launches or marketing campaigns during Q3 2026 are most likely to impact Monster Beverage's total case sales?
| Monster Q2 2026 Energy Drink Case Sales | 304.9 million (from 249.3 million previous year) [1] |
|---|---|
| Monster Ultra Sales Growth Q2 2026 | 19.00% [2] |
| Juice Monster Sales Growth Q2 2026 | 26.00% [2] |
Sources (12)
- 1Monster (MNST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 3www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 5www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 8Monster Energy launches Nitro Blue Flash Blueberry in UK | FNBXfnb-x.com
- 9Sour Strips® and Ghost Energy Re-Unite in Limited-Edition Appleberryblog.priceplow.com
- 10Alani Nu Witch’s Brew 2026 Returns With 2 New Fall Flavorsflavorist.com
- 11Applied Nutrition Brings Sour Patch Kids Back to GNC in ABE Energy and Pre-Workoutblog.priceplow.com
- 12Bum Energy Energy Drink — Peaches and Honey by Ella Langleybevlab.us
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 05, 2027
- Closes: March 05, 2027
Sources (5)
- 1Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 2Monster Beverage Keeps Recruiting New Drinkers Faster Than the Category. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 3Monster Beverage (MNST): International Growth Meets Rich Valuation | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
- 4Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) 🐉stratafinance.beehiiv.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com