Ferrari shipments in Q3
Short Answer
General sentiment and mixed analyst estimates point to volume pressure from model changeovers, suggesting a specific outcome for Ferrari's Q3 2026 shipments is unlikely; the market prices this at 21.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has been inactive, with no recorded trading volume and a static price of 21.0% probability. The lack of price movement reflects an absence of new information being priced in by traders within this specific contract.
The stasis in this market contrasts sharply with pricing in the broader prediction market ecosystem. Other active markets suggest a consensus expectation for Ferrari's Q3 shipments is in the low-to-mid 3,300s. Data from Kalshi indicates a central implied forecast of 3,361 units.
This broader market view implies a 93% probability that shipments will exceed 3,225 units, the apparent threshold for this contract. The significant divergence between that figure and this market's 21.0% price is attributable to the contract's zero trading volume, which indicates the price is a stale quote and not a reflection of active consensus.
- Since last update (~12h): "Above 3225" outcome saw its edge flip, driven by a +97.3pp model-led increase.
- Multiple "Above" outcomes (3300, 3325, 3350) saw model-led edge flips, with increases up to +57.6pp.
- Headline model probability increased +27.2pp; market rose +21.0pp, widening the edge +6.2pp.
- Our confidence score decreased by -2.0pp, from 8.0 to 6.0 over ~11.6h.
- Shipments likely above 3225 units due to expected volume pressure from model changeovers.
- Goldman Sachs projects 3,370 units; Bernstein, 3,407; prediction market implies ~3,361.
- Faster-than-planned new model production could significantly beat shipment expectations.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3425 | 23.0% | 28.2% | Model higher by 5.2pp |
| Above 3400 | 25.0% | 28.2% | Model higher by 3.2pp |
| Above 3450 | 9.0% | 22.1% | Model higher by 13.1pp |
| Above 3600 | 2.0% | 13.6% | Model higher by 11.6pp |
| Above 3325 | 60.0% | 43.2% | Market higher by 16.8pp |
Current Context
Prediction markets imply Ferrari Q3 shipments in low-to-mid 3,300s. As of October 24, 2026, Ferrari had not yet reported Q3 2026 shipments [1][2]. The Kalshi market's central implied level was 3,361 cars. Threshold odds showed 93% likelihood above 3,225 units, 86% above 3,250, 80% above 3,275, 67% above 3,300, and 57% above 3,325 [1][2]. Additional prediction market data indicated a 45% probability for shipments above 3,350, 38% above 3,375, 32% above 3,400, and 21% above 3,450, with another snapshot showing 13% for above 3,450 [1][3][2]. These figures represent market-implied probabilities, not analyst forecasts or official Ferrari data [1][3][2]. Ferrari is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. GMT / 3:00 p.m. CET / 9:00 a.m. EST. The MarketBeat earnings-call consensus cites $2.66 EPS and $2.15 billion revenue [4][5].
Analysts expect model changeovers to be offset by pricing and mix. Ferrari's Q2 2026 performance set a baseline of 3,366 deliveries, €1.938 billion revenue, €605 million EBIT, and €2.62 diluted EPS [6][7]. The company also raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €7.60 billion and adjusted EBIT guidance to at least €2.26 billion [6][7]. For Q3, Bernstein estimated 3,407 shipments, €1.919 billion revenue, and €566 million adjusted EBIT [8]. Intermonte estimated €1.90 billion revenue, €558 million EBIT, and €2.41 EPS [9]. The expert consensus was that while model changeovers would pressure volumes, pricing, product mix, personalization, and high-value models would largely mitigate this effect [10][8][9]. Goldman Sachs estimated 3,370 shipments and maintained a Buy rating with a $421 price target [10]. Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating with a $460 target, and Intermonte maintained Outperform with a €430 target [8][9]. Operational drivers entering Q3 included the ramp-up of Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, 296 Speciale, and F80 deliveries, alongside the phase-out or decline of the 296 GTB/GTS, SF90 XX, and Roma Spider [6][8]. Ferrari also stated that the second-half average selling price should surpass the €468,000 first-half level [6][8].
Pre-release synthesis suggests shipments between 3,370 and 3,410 cars. This range is accompanied by expected revenue around €1.90–€1.92 billion and adjusted EBIT around €558–€566 million [10][9][8]. The principal upside risks involve stronger personalization, mix, contribution from F80 or other limited-series models, or Formula 1-related accounting [10][9][8]. Conversely, the main downside risk stems from a more pronounced volume weakness due to model transitions [10][9][8].
Sources (10)
- 1Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 2Ferrari (RACE) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3450 total number of car shipments in Q3 2026? Odds & Predictions — Predxypredxy.com
- 4Ferrari sets Q3 2026 earnings release for November 3stocktitan.net
- 5Ferrari Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
- 6PERSONALIZATIONS AND MIX CONTINUE TO DRIVE...ferrari.com
- 7Ferrari sets November 3 results date. Ferrari stock sits EUR...ad-hoc-news.de
- 8Ferrari NV (RACE): Bernstein expects Ferrari's pricing and mix to offset lower 3Q26 volumes | Report Interpretation | Hilo Researchxxquant.com
- 9FERRARIwebsim.it
- 10Ferrari Can Sell Fewer Cars and Still Beat, Goldman Saysfinance.yahoo.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on the total number of Ferrari car shipments in Q3. For the "Above 3350" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Q3 shipments are greater than 3350, and a "No" resolution if they are 3350 or less. The market ends on November 3, 7:00am EST, with a maximum payout date of March 4, 2027; no special settlement conditions are specified in the provided text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3225 | $0.99 | $0.11 | 91% |
| Above 3250 | $0.93 | $0.15 | 91% |
| Above 3275 | $0.89 | $0.21 | 85% |
| Above 3325 | $0.67 | $0.43 | 60% |
| Above 3300 | $0.77 | $0.33 | 57% |
| Above 3375 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 43% |
| Above 3350 | $0.46 | $0.64 | 40% |
| Above 3400 | $0.93 | $0.98 | 25% |
| Above 3425 | $0.93 | $0.98 | 23% |
| Above 3450 | $0.91 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Above 3550 | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Above 3475 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 3500 | $0.08 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Above 3525 | $0.07 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 3575 | $0.06 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 3600 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
As of October 24, 2026, prediction market pricing implied a central range for Q3 2026 Ferrari shipments around 3,300–3,350 cars, with decreasing probabilities for exceeding 3,375 (38%) and 3,400 (32%), and low odds (21%) of surpassing 3,450 [1][2][3]. Sell-side analysts broadly anticipate modestly lower year-over-year Q3 volumes, with forecasts like Goldman's at 3,370 shipments [4][5][6]; however, a common thesis suggests Ferrari can still achieve stronger earnings by leveraging personalization, a richer model mix, and deliveries of high-end vehicles, which are expected to lift average selling prices [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3450 total number of car shipments in Q3 2026? Odds & Predictions — Predxypredxy.com
- 4Ferrari Can Sell Fewer Cars and Still Beat, Goldman Saysfinance.yahoo.com
- 5FERRARIwebsim.it
- 6Ferrari Stock (RACE): Morgan Stanley Target $456trendandticker.com
4. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score61Caution
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score58Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
5. How do Bernstein's and Goldman Sachs' Q3 2026 shipment forecasts for Ferrari differ in their underlying assumptions about new model ramp-ups?
| Goldman Sachs Q3 2026 Shipments | 3,370 units [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs FY2026 Luce Deliveries | 150 units [1][2] |
| Goldman Sachs Amalfi Ramp Assumption | Slower ramp-up assumed [1][2] |
Goldman Sachs forecasts specific Q3 2026 shipments with cautious new model ramps. Goldman Sachs projects 3,370 Ferrari shipments for Q3 2026, explicitly assuming a slower ramp-up for the Amalfi model and reducing Luce deliveries to 150 units in FY2026, down from a previous forecast of 300 units [1][2]. Despite this conservative stance on specific new model ramps, Goldman's total forecast is supported by anticipated strong mix and value contributions from the F80, 849 Testarossa, 296 VS/special-series deliveries, and personalization options [1][2]. Ferrari management indicates that 2026 is expected to be back-end loaded, with the F80 gradually ramping and contributions from Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, and 296 Speciale progressively increasing across various geographies [3][2].
Bernstein holds a more optimistic outlook, but lacks specific model data. In contrast to Goldman Sachs, Bernstein raised Ferrari's target after Q2 2026 and maintains a more constructive view on the company's earnings and product-cycle outlook [4][1]. However, the retrieved evidence does not provide Bernstein's exact Q3 shipment estimate or specific assumptions regarding new-model ramp timing for models such as Amalfi and Luce [4][1]. Consequently, a direct quantitative comparison between the two firms remains largely qualitative. Goldman Sachs is explicitly conservative on certain new model ramps while still projecting a solid total, whereas Bernstein appears generally more bullish without providing the granular data needed for a detailed model-specific comparison [1][2][4].
6. What evidence supports the expert consensus for Ferrari's Q3 2026 shipments, which hovers between 3,370 and 3,410 units?
| Morgan Stanley Implied Q3 2026 Shipments | ~3,350 units [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Market Median Q3 2026 Shipments | 3,339 units [3][4][5] |
| Ferrari Q3 2025 Shipments | 3,401 units [2][6] |
Public information does not fully support Ferrari's Q3 2026 shipment consensus. Evidence suggests that the expert consensus for Ferrari's Q3 2026 shipments, projected between 3,370 and 3,410 units, is not entirely substantiated by publicly available data. Analyst projections and prediction market data generally indicate median estimates that are either below or at the lower boundary of this specified range [1][2].
Morgan Stanley projects Q3 2026 shipments below the expert consensus. Their September 30, 2026 preview modeled a 1.5% year-over-year decline in Q3 2026 shipments, despite an expectation for sequential improvement in volume trends [1]. Given that Ferrari reported 3,401 shipments in Q3 2025, applying this 1.5% decline results in an approximate projection of 3,350 shipments for Q3 2026. This figure falls below the lower boundary of the 3,370–3,410 expert consensus band [1][2][6]. Furthermore, Ferrari's Q2 2026 guidance raise was attributed to stronger personalization and reduced currency headwinds, rather than increased unit-volume assumptions [7].
Market data similarly shows median shipment estimates below consensus figures. As of October 24, 2026, the market's median estimate for Ferrari's Q3 2026 shipments was reported near 3,339 units, rather than the 3,390 units previously mentioned [3][4][5]. A separate market-data aggregator confirmed this median of 3,339, providing a middle-half range of 3,285–3,429 for the Q3 2026 shipment contract [8]. This range offers only partial overlap with the lower portion of the claimed expert consensus band and does not firmly establish a supporting analyst consensus.
Sources (8)
- 1Morgan Stanley cuts Ferrari stock price target on currency...investing.com
- 2CONSISTENT EXECUTION: STRONG Q3 2025 RESULTSferrari.com
- 3Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 4Ferrari shipments in Q3 - Kalshi KXRACE-26NOVSHIP Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Q3 2025 RESULTScdn.ferrari.com
- 7PERSONALIZATIONS AND MIX CONTINUE TO DRIVE...ferrari.com
- 8Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
7. What specific product mix shifts or personalization trends in Q3 2026 could cause Ferrari's shipments to significantly beat or miss analyst expectations?
| Upside to Q3 2026 Shipments | Faster ramps and geographic rollouts of new models (e.g., Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, 296 Speciale, 12Cilindri/Spider, Purosangue) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Downside to Q3 2026 Shipments | Persistent changeover bottlenecks or slower new model production ramping [1][2][3] |
| Personalization Impact on Units | Unlikely to increase unit volume; could constrain throughput [1][2][3][4] |
Ferrari's Q3 2026 shipments could significantly beat expectations from rapid model production. This would primarily be driven by a faster-than-planned progression of Q3 ramps for planned model changeovers, including Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, 296 Speciale, 12Cilindri/Spider, and Purosangue [1][2]. Similarly, a quicker geographic rollout of newer models such as Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, 296 Speciale, and 12Cilindri variants after their initial market launches could increase Q3 unit volumes [1][2][3]. Additionally, a greater share of established models in the overall product mix could potentially lift total unit shipments [2][4].
Shipments may miss if production constraints or personalization trends persist. This scenario could occur if changeover bottlenecks continue despite a stronger mix, or if slower homologation, allocation, or production ramping affects new models [1][2][3]. While personalization trends are expected to boost revenue per car, they are unlikely to increase unit volume and could constrain throughput, potentially resulting in shipments remaining near or below expectations even as earnings are supported [1][2][3]. Furthermore, a higher share of complex or highly personalized models could constrain production throughput, which might reduce the total number of units shipped [2][4].
8. Is regional vehicle registration data available for Ferrari's key markets in Q3 2026, and can it serve as a leading indicator for factory shipments?
| Ferrari Q3 2026 Registration Data | Not available for Ferrari-specific brand in key markets [1] |
|---|---|
| Ferrari 2025 EMEA Deliveries | 6,346 units [2] |
| Ferrari Q3 2026 Group Results Release | November 3, 2026 (Scheduled) [3] |
Ferrari-specific Q3 2026 registration data is not currently available. While general new-light-vehicle registration data for broad country and market levels is accessible through August 2026, covering over 150 countries and showing trends like China down 18.1% and the US down 3.7%, this information is not specific to the Ferrari brand for Q3 2026. Therefore, a complete and timely series of Ferrari-brand registration data for the period remains unconfirmed [1].
Regional registration data offers a weak leading indicator for shipments. Ferrari's primary destination markets are segmented across EMEA, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific, with 2025 deliveries including 6,346 units in EMEA, 3,937 in the Americas, 941 in Mainland China/Hong Kong/Taiwan, and 2,416 in Rest of APAC [2]. Regional registrations reflect retail deliveries after accounting for logistics, dealer inventory, allocation, and timing effects. Consequently, these registrations serve only as a weak-to-moderate directional leading indicator for factory shipments and should not be treated as a one-for-one forecast, especially given Ferrari management's strategic allocation and model changeovers impacting 2026 volumes [4].
9. What factors might explain the discrepancy between the Kalshi market's implied median of ~3,361 shipments and the higher estimates from analysts like Bernstein (3,407)?
| Kalshi Implied Median Q3 2026 | ~3,361 shipments [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Bernstein Estimate Q3 2026 | 3,407 shipments [1][2][3] |
| Ferrari Q2 2026 Shipments | 3,366 units [3] |
Discrepancy in Ferrari shipment forecasts arises from prediction market limitations. The divergence between Kalshi's implied median of approximately 3,361 shipments and Bernstein's higher estimate of 3,407 for Ferrari in Q3 2026 is largely attributed to the inherent mechanics of the prediction market [1][2][3]. This market's structure, characterized by low volume and market-quality indicators, allows its apparent median to differ significantly from professional analyses [1][4][2][5]. Its thinly traded nature means that minimal trading activity or wide bid/ask spreads can skew the perceived median [1][4][2][5]. Furthermore, its design as a threshold ladder necessitates interpolation to derive a single median, contributing to discrepancies of several dozen units [1][2].
Analysts interpret Ferrari's operational strategy differently without explicit guidance. The absence of explicit Q3 2026 shipment guidance from Ferrari means analysts and market participants must develop their own bottom-up forecasts [3]. This leads to variations based on how they weigh factors such as seasonality, new model ramps, and transition risks [3]. These interpretations are also shaped by considering Ferrari's Q2 strategy, which emphasizes product mix and financial growth over raw unit volume [3].
Sources (5)
- 1Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3400 total number of car shipments in Q3 2026? Odds & Predictions — Predxypredxy.com
- 3PERSONALIZATIONS AND MIX CONTINUE TO DRIVE...ferrari.com
- 4Ferrari shipments in Q3 - Kalshi KXRACE-26NOVSHIP Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Ferrari has scheduled its Q3 2026 financial results for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with the webcast at 2:00 p.m. GMT / 3:00 p.m. CET / 9:00 a.m. EST [1]. As of October 24, 2026, prediction-market pricing implied a central estimate around 3,361 cars for Q3 shipments [2][3][4]. Kalshi showed 98% probability for shipments above 3,225 cars, 40% above 3,325, 40% above 3,350, and 13% above 3,375 [3]. PredictPedia’s snapshot indicated 93% above 3,225, 67% above 3,300, and 57% above 3,325 [2][4]. Sell-side expectations clustered near 3,370–3,410 Q3 shipments; Goldman estimated 3,370 versus a 3,410 consensus, while Bernstein cited a Visible Alpha consensus of 3,407 [5][6]. Intermonte expected volumes down approximately 3% year over year due to model changeovers [7]. The practical breakpoint for the shipment prediction market was 3,350–3,375 cars; a result below roughly 3,325 would be bearish relative to consensus, while above 3,400 would represent a positive volume surprise [2][8][3][4].
The bullish financial setup forecasts price/mix and personalization offsetting lower volume [5][7]. Bernstein expected Q3 revenue of €1.919 billion (+9% year over year), adjusted EBITDA of €745 million (+11%), adjusted EBIT of €566 million (+13%), and a 29.5% EBIT margin [5]. Intermonte forecast €1.90 billion revenue, €558 million EBIT, 29.3% margin, €2.41 EPS, and €363 million free cash flow [7]. MarketBeat estimated $2.66 EPS and $2.15 billion revenue for the quarter [9]. Key operating catalysts include the ramp of F80, Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, and 296 Speciale models, combined with high personalization and a favorable mix [5]. Ferrari’s model transition is the primary reason for expected lower shipments, although Bernstein noted that the 2H average selling price should exceed the €468,000 achieved in 1H26 [5].
Broader bullish catalysts include order-book visibility through 2027, strong personalization, new high-margin models, easing FX headwinds, and potential upside from Formula 1 accounting if championship-related provisions can be released [5][7]. Conversely, bearish risks encompass weaker luxury demand, macro volatility, higher costs, failed model launches—specifically the Luce EV—margin pressure, and brand dilution [5][7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 04, 2027
- Closes: March 04, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1FERRARI TO ANNOUNCE THIRD QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS ONglobenewswire.com
- 2Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Ferrari shipments in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 4Ferrari (RACE) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 5Ferrari NV (RACE): Bernstein expects Ferrari's pricing and mix to offset lower 3Q26 volumes | Report Interpretation | Hilo Researchxxquant.com
- 6Ferrari Can Sell Fewer Cars and Still Beat, Goldman Saysfinance.yahoo.com
- 7FERRARIwebsim.it
- 8Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3450 total number of car shipments in Q3 2026? Odds & Predictions — Predxypredxy.com
- 9Ferrari Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
