Short Answer

The Fear & Greed Index is likely to register in the "Greed" zone on September 11, 2026, supported by resilient corporate earnings from AI investments despite recent volatility. The market prices this outcome at 64.0%, diverging significantly from the model's 34.7%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The 50.0 percentage point spike on September 8 is not explained by available information. Similarly, the 23.0 percentage point drop on September 4 lacks a clear driver; in fact, the separate Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a peak reading of "greed" on that day.
Other price action aligns with broader market sentiment indicators. The 10.0 percentage point drop on September 1 was driven by a sharp decline in investor risk appetite, reflected in the S&P Global Investment Manager Index's 19-point fall for September. A 27.0 percentage point spike on September 3 coincided with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising to 65 ("Greed"), though the underlying CNN Fear & Greed Index, which this market resolves on, remained in the "Fear" zone. As of September 8, the market prices a 34% probability for a "Greed" outcome, slightly ahead of "Fear" (30%) and "Neutral" (25%).
  • "Greed" is favored by market probability, reflecting corporate earnings resilience from AI.
  • High "Fear" probability is driven by sticky inflation and reportedly increased rate hike expectations.
  • Upcoming August CPI release and historical September volatility suggest overall market uncertainty.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Greed 64.0% 34.7% The index was in "Fear" on September 3, and macro risks like inflation and high rates persist.
Fear 55.0% 35.6% The index was at 33, with investor risk appetite at a 2.5-year low.
Extreme Greed 6.0% 2.9% Investor risk appetite is at a 2.5-year low, with the index in "Fear" on September 3.
Neutral 39.0% 22.4% Resilient earnings balance macro risks, but the index was in "Fear" on September 3.
Extreme Fear 7.0% 4.4% The index was at 33, and investor risk appetite reached a 2.5-year low.

Current Context

Prediction market slightly favors greed, despite recent fear readings. The prediction market for the Fear & Greed Index on September 11, 2026, shows "Greed" with a 34% probability, "Fear" at 30%, and "Neutral" at 25%, as of September 8, 2026 [^][^]. This market will settle on September 18, 2026, linked to the initial CNN Fear & Greed Index value updated after 4:00 PM ET on September 11 [^]. The index last registered in the "Fear" zone at 33 on September 3, 2026 [^]. September 11, 2026, is a date for corporate events like Annual General Meetings and financial note pricing, not a pre-determined Fear & Greed Index release [^][^][^][^][^].
Financial markets face increased volatility from macro concerns. Financial markets in early September 2026 are experiencing heightened volatility after a quiet summer [^]. Key drivers include concerns over US fiscal sustainability, with national debt exceeding $40 trillion, alongside persistent inflation and high interest rates [^][^][^]. While corporate earnings show resilience, largely supported by AI infrastructure investment, investors remain focused on employment and inflation data for signals on potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments [^][^].
Divergent trends appear in equity volatility and market sentiment. Equity market volatility in late August and early September 2026 fell to near a 1-year low, characterized by compressed volatility risk premiums and normalized single-stock volatility post-earnings [^]. Despite this, market experts maintain caution, balancing strong corporate fundamentals against broader macroeconomic risks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy price pressures [^][^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Greed

📈 September 08, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Price increased from 14.0% to 64.0%

What happened: There is no evidence in the provided research to support a 50.0 percentage point spike in the Fear & Greed Index towards 'Greed' on September 8, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets on Kalshi were pricing the 'Greed' outcome for September 11, 2026, at approximately 29-34% on this date [^][^]. Furthermore, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index indicated deteriorating investor risk appetite and increased risk aversion for September 2026, rather than a surge in greed [^]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant as there is no verifiable market movement to analyze.

📉 September 04, 2026: 23.0pp drop

Price decreased from 48.0% to 25.0%

What happened: The provided web research indicates there is no evidence of a 23.0 percentage point drop in a widely recognized "Fear & Greed Index" on September 4, 2026 [^][^]. In fact, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index actually reached a peak of 74 on September 4, 2026, signifying "greed," and subsequently cooled to 69 by September 8, 2026 [^][^]. While other indices, like S&P Global's IMI, showed a deterioration in risk appetite in September, this was not a 23.0pp drop in a Fear & Greed Index on that specific date [^][^]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant as the premise for the price movement is not supported by the available information.

📈 September 03, 2026: 27.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 48.0%

What happened: No evidence suggests the underlying CNN Fear & Greed Index itself experienced a 27.0 percentage point spike on September 3, 2026, as it only marginally increased and remained in the 'Fear' zone [^]. However, on the same date, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index distinctly rose to 65, indicating 'Greed' sentiment, with this development being shared on social media by platforms like Lookonchain [^]. This significant positive sentiment in the crypto market, amplified through social media, appears to be the primary driver of the prediction market's 'Greed' outcome spike, likely due to participant conflation or an interpretation of crypto as a leading indicator, despite contradictory signals from traditional finance [^]. Social media therefore functioned as a primary driver by disseminating this potent, albeit potentially misapplied, 'Greed' signal.

📉 September 01, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 36.0% to 26.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's price drop was the significant decline in investor risk appetite, as indicated by the S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IMI) headline Risk Appetite Index [^]. This index experienced a 19 percentage point drop from -10% in August to -29% in September 2026, signaling a strong shift away from "Greed" among investment managers [^]. This traditional financial news event appears to coincide with the prediction market's movement on September 1, 2026, lowering expectations for a "Greed" outcome [^]. No social media activity was identified as a driver, making it irrelevant in this instance.

Outcome: Fear

📈 September 07, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 42.0% to 50.0%

What happened: The primary drivers for the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Fear & Greed Index" prediction market on September 7, 2026, were significant traditional news developments. A stronger-than-expected August U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (162,000 jobs) led markets to price in an increased probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the upcoming September 16, 2026, meeting [^]. Concurrently, intensifying U.S.-Iran military conflicts in the Middle East pushed Brent crude prices to seven-week highs, further contributing to market fear and uncertainty [^]. These events, which occurred over the September 6–7, 2026 weekend, directly coincided with the market movement, driving sentiment towards "Fear" [^]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks about the "Fear & Greed Index on Friday?", with separate options to predict "Greed," "Fear," or "Neutral." The exact numerical thresholds or conditions for the Fear & Greed Index that would trigger a "YES" or "NO" resolution for any of these categories are not specified in the provided content. Trading for the market begins on Friday, September 11, at 9:30 am EDT, and the maximum payout date is listed as September 18, 2026. No special settlement conditions are detailed.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Greed $0.35 $0.92 64%
Fear $0.54 $0.58 55%
Neutral $0.38 $0.82 39%
Extreme Fear $0.41 $0.97 7%
Extreme Greed $0.86 $1.00 6%

Market Discussion

The Fear & Greed Index for September 11, 2026, is not verifiable as of September 8, 2026, as it is a retrospective sentiment gauge rather than a forecasted value [^]. As of September 8, 2026, the index was reported at 42, signaling a shift to "Fear" ahead of the September 11, 2026 CPI report and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with market sentiment heavily influenced by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations for a rate hike [^]. Rising bond yields are a key investor anxiety, despite equity volatility (VIX Index) falling to near 1-year lows by the week of August 31, 2026 [^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

GreedPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Extreme FearTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
FearTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
NeutralTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0.17
Extreme GreedTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0.19

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 8, 2026

6. What key economic data releases or Federal Reserve communications in early September 2026 could act as catalysts to shift the Fear & Greed Index before September 11?

Probability of Greed reading (Sep 11)29-34% [^][^][^][^]
August ISM Manufacturing PMI54.60 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
August Employment Situation releaseSeptember 4 [^]
Federal Reserve communications were limited, impacting market sentiment. Early September 2026 saw various economic data releases that could influence the Fear & Greed Index, with a key factor being the Federal Reserve's communication limitations due to a blackout period ahead of its September 15-16 meeting [^][^]. Prediction markets on Kalshi indicated a 29-34% probability for a Greed reading on September 11 [^][^][^][^]. Markets are particularly sensitive to labor data and Federal Reserve rhetoric, though new official communications from the Fed were restricted during this period [^][^].
Several key economic releases influenced market expectations pre-September 11. Major economic data releases before September 11 included the August ISM Manufacturing PMI, released on September 1, which registered 54.60 against a forecast of 55.20 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The August Employment Situation report, released on September 4, was noted as a strong jobs report that increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and led to declines in U.S. equity markets [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Other significant releases included JOLTS Job Openings for July on September 8, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation on September 9, and the Producer Price Index for August on September 10, an inflation input impacting yields and rate expectations [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The August Consumer Price Index, a major focus for markets, was scheduled for September 11, meaning its influence would be processed after the data cutoff for the Fear & Greed Index through September 10 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].

7. Which of the seven components of the CNN Fear & Greed Index are currently signaling 'Greed', and how do they weigh against the components still indicating 'Fear'?

Index componentsStock price momentum, Stock price strength, Stock price breadth, Put and call options, Junk bond demand, Market volatility, Safe-haven demand [^][^]
Sep 11, 2026 component readingsNot available [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Implied probability of 'Greed' on Sep 11, 2026Approximately 28.9% (as of September 8, 2026) [^]
The provided information does not contain specific component readings for the CNN Fear & Greed Index on September 11, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Consequently, it is not possible to determine which of the seven components were signaling 'Greed' or 'Fear' on that particular date, nor to quantify their respective weights [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Real-time, component-level data for the index is generally accessible primarily through official CNN channels, varies throughout the trading day, and is not broadly summarized in secondary public datasets [^].
The CNN Fear & Greed Index comprises seven distinct market indicators. These indicators are Stock price momentum, Stock price strength, Stock price breadth, Put and call options, Junk bond demand, Market volatility, and Safe-haven demand [^][^]. Each of these components signals 'Greed' or 'Fear' based on specific criteria; for instance, Stock Price Momentum indicates 'Greed' when the S&P 500 is above its 125-day moving average and 'Fear' when it is below it [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of September 8, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market indicated that 'Greed' as a potential outcome for the Fear & Greed Index on September 11, 2026, had an implied probability of approximately 28.9% [^].

8. How does the sentiment reading from the CNN Fear & Greed Index compare to other key indicators like the VIX and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey in early September 2026?

CNN Fear & Greed Index (Aug 14, 2026)65 (Greed) [^]
VIX (Sep 3, 2026)14.32 [^]
AAII Bullish Sentiment (week ending Sep 2, 2026)39.70% [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Comparing sentiment indicators for early September 2026 presents data availability challenges. A direct comparison of the CNN Fear & Greed Index to the VIX and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for September 11, 2026, is not fully achievable due to unavailable specific readings for the CNN Fear & Greed Index and VIX levels for that exact date [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, indicators from early September 2026 reflected mixed sentiment overall. For the CNN Fear & Greed Index, a specific reading for September 11, 2026, was not provided in the available sources. The index was last recorded at 65 (Greed) as of August 14, 2026, which contrasted with its 2026 average of 45.16 [^]. Kalshi prediction markets indicated an implied probability of 29% for "Greed" on September 11, 2026 [^].
Market volatility remained low, while investor sentiment showed cautious optimism. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 14.32 on September 3, 2026, reflecting a period of relatively low market volatility during early September [^]. No VIX values for September 11, 2026, or neighboring sessions were available in the provided sources [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for the week ending September 2, 2026, showed 39.70% of individual investors were bullish, exceeding the historical average of 37.50% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, 22.70% were neutral, which is below the historical average of 31.00%, and 37.60% were bearish [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The bull-bear spread registered +2.20 percentage points, falling below the historical average of +6.50 percentage points [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This data indicated mixed but slightly more optimistic sentiment than typical [^][^][^][^][^][^].

9. Based on historical data, what is the typical behavior of the Fear & Greed Index in September, especially following periods of low summer volatility?

Extreme Fear Index (September 2008)12 [^][^]
Extreme Greed Index (September 2012)above 90 [^][^]
Volatility Factor in Alternative.me's Index25% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
September typically brings heightened volatility for the Fear & Greed Index and broader stock markets. Historically, September has been a period of significant market volatility [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Past extreme readings for the index include extreme fear at 12 in September 2008 and extreme greed above 90 in September 2012 [^][^]. Major financial news outlets identify September as historically the most volatile month for stocks, with this increased volatility potentially extending into October, prompting investors to anticipate higher volatility and possible market underperformance [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
The Fear & Greed Index incorporates volatility, influencing sentiment based on market shifts. A volatility factor constitutes 25% of Alternative.me's index calculation, interpreting unusual increases in volatility as a signal of more fearful sentiment [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While periods of low summer volatility often correlate with elevated investor sentiment, rapid shifts in macroeconomic conditions or geopolitical events can quickly reverse this sentiment from greed to fear [^][^][^]. As of August 2026, prediction markets indicated an approximate 29% implied probability for the 'Greed' category for the September 11, 2026, reading [^][^].
Specific analysis for September 2026 behavior is limited by available data. The provided research does not include the Fear & Greed Index time series for March through September 2026, nor does it quantify 'low summer volatility' for the summer of 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, specific 'typical September behavior' for recent historical values cannot be computed, nor can a summary be provided on how the index's behavior in September 2026 might differ after low-summer-volatility regimes versus non-low-volatility regimes [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, the exact Fear & Greed Index reading for September 11, 2026, cannot be determined from the available information [^][^][^][^][^][^].

10. What specific macroeconomic thresholds, such as a core CPI reading or unemployment rate, would likely trigger a decisive move into 'Extreme Fear' or 'Extreme Greed'?

Direct Macro Inputs to Fear & Greed IndexMacroeconomic data like core CPI or unemployment are not direct, hard-coded inputs [^][^][^]
Direct Macro Thresholds for Extreme Index LevelsNo specified direct macroeconomic thresholds for 'Extreme Fear' (0-24) or 'Extreme Greed' (75-100) based on core CPI or unemployment rates [^][^][^][^][^]
Macro Influence on Fear & Greed IndexInfluences indirectly through its seven equally-weighted components [^][^][^]
No direct macroeconomic thresholds trigger 'Extreme Fear' or 'Extreme Greed' in the index. Core CPI readings and the unemployment rate are not direct, hard-coded inputs to the Fear & Greed Index [^][^][^]. Consequently, the index does not incorporate specific direct macroeconomic thresholds from these indicators that would trigger a decisive move into 'Extreme Fear' (0-24) or 'Extreme Greed' (75-100) [^][^][^][^][^].
Macroeconomic factors indirectly influence the index via unexpected surprises. Instead, macroeconomic factors influence the index indirectly through its seven equally-weighted components, such as market volatility and bond spreads [^][^][^]. Investor sentiment, which is a primary driver of the index, is largely shaped by unexpected macroeconomic 'surprises.' These surprises represent the difference between released data, including core CPI, unemployment, and payrolls, and market consensus, rather than merely the absolute levels of these indicators [^][^][^].
High-inflation environments can heighten market fear, but it's not a threshold. Although high-inflation environments, defined by a month-over-month headline CPI greater than 0.3%, can amplify the negative impact of monetary policy surprises on equity markets and potentially heighten market fear, this condition does not constitute a specific direct threshold for 'Extreme Fear' or 'Extreme Greed' based on core CPI or unemployment rates [^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The primary catalyst for financial markets on September 11, 2026, is the release of the U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET [^][^][^][^]. This data is expected to heavily influence Federal Reserve interest rate policy expectations for the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting [^][^][^][^]. Broader financial events for the week of September 7–11, 2026, include the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision on September 10 and the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) release, also on September 10 [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets as of late August 2026 showed significant uncertainty regarding the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with approximately a 68-72% probability of the Fed holding rates steady and a roughly 28-32% probability of a 25-basis-point hike [^] [^] . | Parity" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 64% probability of a rate hike to a range of 3.75%–4.0% at the September 16 FOMC meeting [^]. Concurrently, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IMI) reported investor risk appetite dropped from -10% in August to -29% in September 2026, marking its lowest level in nearly two-and-a-half years and signaling rising risk aversion [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 18, 2026
  • Closes: September 18, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The primary catalyst for financial markets on September 11, 2026, is the release of the U.S.
  • Trigger: August Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m.
  • Trigger: ET [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: This data is expected to heavily influence Federal Reserve interest rate policy expectations for the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting [^] [^] [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXFEAR-26SEP04-XGREE: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26SEP04-XFEAR: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26SEP04-NEUT: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26SEP04-GREE: NO (Sep 05, 2026)
  • KXFEAR-26SEP04-FEAR: YES (Sep 05, 2026)