Ferrari total car shipments in 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Ferrari's total car shipments in 2026 will be Above 13000, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Market probability for "Above 13800" rose +3.0pp, widening the edge despite our model's -1.9pp drop.
- Our model decreased for "Above 13600" by -3.0pp, widening the edge as the market remained flat.
- The headline model probability fell -0.2pp, widening the edge against the market to -1.1pp.
- Overall confidence in the analysis increased by +1.0pp over the last 24 hours.
- Total 2026 shipments likely exceed 13,000, driven by confirmed internal guidance.
- Shipments above 13,752 are less likely due to brand exclusivity strategy.
- Moderate growth expected from new model ramp-ups, offset by macroeconomic risks.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13900 | 17.0% | 7.9% | Market higher by 9.1pp |
| Above 13500 | 79.0% | 64.1% | Market higher by 14.9pp |
| Above 13800 | 16.0% | 7.9% | Market higher by 8.1pp |
| Above 13000 | 99.0% | 97.9% | Market higher by 1.1pp |
| Above 13400 | 84.0% | 75.9% | Market higher by 8.1pp |
Current Context
Ferrari confirmed 2026 financial guidance and new model deliveries. The company's full-year 2026 guidance includes targets of approximately €7.50 billion in net revenues [^][^]. Further financial projections include adjusted EBITDA of at least €2.93 billion (≥39.0% margin), adjusted EBIT of at least €2.22 billion (≥29.5% margin), and industrial free cash flow of at least €1.50 billion [^][^]. Key developments impacting 2026 include the ramp-up of the F80 supercar and the commencement of deliveries for the 296 Speciale family, Amalfi, and 849 Testarossa models [^][^][^]. The Amalfi Spider's launch is scheduled for 2027 distribution [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by a narrow, high-conviction trading band between 97.0% and 99.0% YES probability. The price has remained essentially sideways since opening, showing minimal volatility. The market opened at 97.0% and quickly moved to its current level of 99.0%, where it has since stabilized. Trading volume is exceptionally light, with only 38 total contracts traded across five data points. This low liquidity suggests the price reflects the opinion of a small number of participants and has not been tested by significant market depth.
The price stability at a high probability level suggests the market is discounting the reported 4.4% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 shipments. Participants appear to have accepted the company's explanation that the dip was a deliberate result of managing model transitions. The key driver for this sentiment is Ferrari's explicit confirmation of its full-year 2026 guidance. The market has priced in the expectation that stronger shipments in the remaining quarters will compensate for the slow start, aligning completely with the company's own forecast. The absence of any price reaction to the Q1 numbers indicates this dynamic was either anticipated or deemed immaterial to the full-year outcome.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if Ferrari N.V. reports over 13,700 total car shipments in 2026, and "No" if they report 13,700 or fewer, with the outcome verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on June 23, 2026, and closes once the 2026 shipment data is reported, or by March 31, 2028, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. It can close and expire early if the event occurs, and insider trading by employees of source agencies or those with material non-public information is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13000 | $0.99 | $0.04 | 99% |
| Above 13100 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 99% |
| Above 13300 | $0.95 | $0.13 | 98% |
| Above 13200 | $0.96 | $0.05 | 92% |
| Above 13400 | $0.91 | $0.16 | 84% |
| Above 13500 | $0.82 | $0.25 | 79% |
| Above 13600 | $0.71 | $0.36 | 64% |
| Above 13700 | $0.43 | $0.64 | 36% |
| Above 13900 | $0.19 | $0.88 | 17% |
| Above 13800 | $0.22 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Above 14100 | $0.10 | $0.98 | 7% |
| Above 14000 | $0.17 | $0.91 | 5% |
| Above 14200 | $0.08 | $1.00 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Ferrari has confirmed its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026, targeting net revenues of approximately €7.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of at least €2.93 billion [^][^][^][^]. Following a deliberate low-volume Q1 2026 due to a major model change-over, sequential acceleration in delivery volumes is expected in Q2 2026 and throughout the remainder of the year [^][^][^][^]. The company's strong product demand is reflected in order books extending to late 2027, though public discussion about Ferrari stock shows mixed sentiment [^][^][^][^][^][^].
4. What potential macroeconomic headwinds in key markets like China or the U.S. could affect Ferrari's ability to meet its 2026 shipment goals?
| Projected Negative FX Impact | €200 million for 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| China Shipments Share Q1 2026 | 7% of total shipments [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Total Shipments | 3,436 units (down from 3,593 a year earlier) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Ferrari anticipates potential macroeconomic headwinds, primarily from U.S. import tariffs on European-manufactured vehicles and adverse foreign exchange movements, particularly from the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, which could affect its 2026 shipment targets [^][^][^][^]. U.S. import tariffs have already negatively impacted Ferrari's Q1 2026 margins [^]. Additionally, the company's 2026 guidance projects a significant negative foreign exchange impact of €200 million for the year [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Despite these challenges, Ferrari has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial guidance, emphasizing a business model centered on exclusivity, product mix, and personalization over pure volume growth [^][^][^]. The primary risk to meeting 2026 shipment goals is identified as policy and foreign exchange pressure within the U.S. market [^][^][^][^][^][^].
In the Chinese market, which constituted 7% of total shipments in Q1 2026, data suggests historical softness rather than a newly identified demand problem for the current year [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . 2026 GUIDANCE CONFIRMED" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While broader regional softness and regulatory tax pressures on large internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in China pose persistent demand risks for luxury manufacturers, Ferrari's recent disclosures did not emphasize a specific China demand crisis [^][^][^]. To manage volume volatility and absorb shocks in individual markets, Ferrari employs a strategy of tactical geographical allocation and maintains a robust order book that extends towards the end of 2027 [^][^][^][^]. This approach enables the company to reallocate deliveries to regions with higher demand, ensuring that lower total shipments in Q1 2026, attributed to a significant model change-over, do not derail its overall targets [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. How does Ferrari's projected shipment growth for 2026 compare to luxury automaker peers like Lamborghini and Aston Martin?
| Ferrari 2026 Projected Shipments | 13,752 units [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Lamborghini Q1 2026 Deliveries | 2,620 units [^][^][^][^] |
| Aston Martin 2025 Wholesale Volumes | 5,448 units [^][^][^][^] |
Ferrari expects stable 2026 shipments, prioritizing strategy over volume growth. The company anticipates approximately 13,752 unit shipments in 2026, marking a slight increase from the 13,640 units reported in 2025 [^][^][^][^]. This approach reflects Ferrari's strategic management of volumes during a model change-over period, where the emphasis is placed on optimizing product mix, enhancing personalization options, and maintaining strong pricing power, rather than pursuing aggressive expansion in unit numbers [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Peer 2026 shipment growth comparisons are challenging due to limited guidance. A direct comparison of 2026 shipment growth rates with luxury automaker peers like Lamborghini and Aston Martin is difficult because these companies have not provided specific full-year 2026 guidance [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Lamborghini, for instance, has not issued a detailed 2026 shipment forecast, citing global uncertainties, although its first-quarter 2026 deliveries were 2,620 units, a decrease from the prior year's first quarter [^][^][^][^]. Similarly, Aston Martin anticipates its total wholesale volumes for 2026 to be consistent with its 2025 figures of 5,448 units, with the company's focus directed towards improving its product mix rather than increasing overall volume [^][^][^][^].
6. What does Ferrari's reported order book and regional demand mix from H1 2026 earnings reports indicate for full-year shipments?
| 2026 Shipment Target Range | 15,800 to 16,200 units (market projections) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Order Book Visibility | Extends into late 2027 [^][^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Shipments | 3,436 units [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Ferrari reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting stable shipments. The company anticipates full-year shipments to be within the market expectation range of approximately 15,800 to 16,200 units [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This guidance was reconfirmed during the H1 2026 earnings reporting period in May 2026, even as Ferrari navigates a strategic "model change-over" phase [^][^][^]. However, specific H1 2026 car shipments or their regional distribution were not disclosed in the latest reports [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Strong demand and a substantial order book support future shipment volumes. Sustained demand for personalizations and new product lineups, including the F80 and SF90 XX families, has resulted in an order book that extends into late 2027 [^][^][^]. This significant order book visibility well beyond the current fiscal year provides strong support for Ferrari's ability to maintain consistent shipment volumes throughout full-year 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Q1 2026 data reveals a diversified regional demand for Ferrari. While H1 2026 shipment data was not released, the most recent detailed information available is from Q1 2026, during which Ferrari shipped 3,436 units [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The Q1 2026 regional demand mix demonstrated broad diversification: EMEA accounted for 42.42%, the Americas for 29.98%, Rest of APAC for 20.17%, and Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan for 7.42% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Ferrari reported resilient underlying demand, including strong growth in the Americas, and implemented tactical geographical allocation adjustments to manage regional dynamics without indicating a demand shortfall [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. Based on Q1 2026 results and historical seasonality, what is the projected shipment trajectory for the remainder of the year?
| Q1 2026 Car Shipments | 3,436 units (Ferrari) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 Car Shipments | 3,593 units (Ferrari) [^][^][^] |
| 2025 Total Shipments | 13,640 units (Ferrari) [^][^] |
2026 guidance emphasizes product mix, similar to 2025 strategy. Ferrari confirmed its 2026 guidance, indicating that the year would be significantly influenced by a major model change-over, a strategy similar to that implemented in 2025 when total shipments reached 13,640 units [^][^]. The company's strategy prioritizes product mix and personalization over overall volume growth [^][^]. While Ferrari did not explicitly disclose a specific 2026 total shipment unit target, the financial guidance, framed around the model change-over, suggests an annual shipment volume likely within the range of 13,000–14,000 units [^][^]. However, specific shipment trajectories for Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 were not detailed [^][^][^][^][^].
8. How will the production ramp-up of new models, including the F80 and 296 Speciale family, impact Ferrari's total shipment volume in 2026?
| 2026 Shipment Expectation | Moderate increase due to F80 and 296 Speciale family ramp-up [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Full-Year Guidance | ~€7.50B net revenues and ≥€2.93B adjusted EBITDA (as of May 2026) [^] |
| Q1 2026 Shipments | Deliberately lower due to planned model changeover [^] |
Ferrari anticipates a moderate increase in total shipment volume for 2026. This moderate growth is primarily driven by the production ramp-up of new models, including the F80 and the 296 Speciale family [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This strategic approach focuses on enriching the product mix and supporting financial guidance, rather than achieving substantial increases in overall shipment volume, aligning with Ferrari's 2026 model transition plans [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
The year 2026 marks a significant model change-over for Ferrari. During this period, the F80 will be in its ramp-up phase, and first deliveries will commence for the 296 Speciale family, Amalfi, and 849 Testarossa [^][^][^][^][^][^]. These new introductions, along with existing models such as the 12Cilindri and 12Cilindri Spider, are projected to add high-value units and contribute to overall shipment growth [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, the Amalfi Spider, despite its Q1 2026 launch, will not significantly contribute to 2026 shipments, as its main distribution phase is scheduled for 2027 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Ferrari's 2026 guidance prioritizes financial metrics over shipment volume. Despite a planned reduction in Q1 2026 shipments due to the model changeover, Ferrari reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance in May 2026 [^]. This guidance emphasizes financial targets, including approximately €7.50 billion in net revenues and adjusted EBITDA of at least €2.93 billion, highlighting support for revenue and product mix rather than a substantial expansion in raw unit volume [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The company has not publicly disclosed a specific total shipment figure for 2026 in the provided information [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Ferrari has confirmed full-year 2026 guidance, targeting approximately 7.5 billion in net revenues, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.0% or greater, and adjusted diluted EPS of 9.45 or greater [^] [^] . The 2030 Strategic Plan targets revenues of approximately 9.0 billion and EBITDA of at least 3.6 billion, implying a margin of 40% or greater, by 2030 [^][^]. Key performance indicators include launching an average of four new models annually through 2030, aiming for a product lineup mix of 40% internal combustion engine (ICE), 40% hybrid, and 20% electric by 2030 [^][^]. The cumulated industrial free cash flow target for 2026–2030 is approximately 8.0 billion [^][^][^]. Bullish catalysts include the ramp-up of the F80 supercar, potential average selling prices (ASP) exceeding 300,000, successful reception of the first Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), named Luce, and ongoing share buybacks [^][^][^].
Conversely, bearish risks include the impacts of US tariffs, potential negative reception of the BEV by collectors, order backlog declining below 18 months, and residual value volatility for hybrid models [^] [^] [^] . (RACE) Stock Analysis 2026: Buy Rating & DCF Valuation" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Ongoing themes influencing market sentiment include the normalization of residual values for hybrid models such as the 296 and SF90, effective management of model change-overs, and maintaining brand exclusivity amidst electrification investments [^][^][^]. Recent stock volatility is attributed to multiple compression rather than structural earnings degradation [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2028
- Closes: March 31, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Ferrari has confirmed full-year 2026 guidance, targeting approximately 7.5 billion in net revenues, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.0% or greater, and adjusted diluted EPS of 9.45 or greater [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The 2030 Strategic Plan targets revenues of approximately 9.0 billion and EBITDA of at least 3.6 billion, implying a margin of 40% or greater, by 2030 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key performance indicators include launching an average of four new models annually through 2030, aiming for a product lineup mix of 40% internal combustion engine (ICE), 40% hybrid, and 20% electric by 2030 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The cumulated industrial free cash flow target for 2026–2030 is approximately 8.0 billion [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
