Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3 2026 will be above 20, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has traded in a narrow 3-point range between 94.0% and 97.0% since its inception. All recorded price action occurred on July 28, 2026, when the price moved from an opening of 94.0% to its current level of 97.0%. The chart indicates stable pricing since that initial adjustment. Given the lack of subsequent price movement, no clear support or resistance levels have been established.
The market's price action is defined by its extremely low volume. With only two contracts traded in total, the price reflects the conviction of a very small number of participants. This low liquidity suggests the current price may not represent a broad consensus and could be susceptible to high volatility if new information or significant trading interest emerges. The high probability assigned to a 'Yes' resolution indicates that the few active traders are confident in this outcome.
The market is pricing an event for Q3 2026, for which official delivery figures are not yet public. According to corporate filings, Lockheed Martin delivered 19 F-35s in Q2 2026, a significant drop from 50 deliveries in Q2 2025. This preceding quarterly performance does not appear to have dampened sentiment in this market for the Q3 outcome. The official figures will be included in the company's Q3 earnings report, which is expected in October 2026.
  • F-35 deliveries likely exceed 20 aircraft, following Q2 2026's 19 units.
  • Achieving above 35 units appears challenging due to persistent supply chain issues.
  • Deliveries surpassing 40 are notably difficult given ongoing production and engine delays.

Current Context

Lockheed Martin has not yet reported Q3 2026 F-35 delivery figures. As of July 28, 2026, the company had not released F-35 aircraft delivery data for the third quarter, which ends September 30, 2026 [1][2]. Lockheed Martin's Q3 2026 earnings report, expected in October 2026, will include these figures [3][4]. In the second quarter of 2026, which concluded on June 28, 2026, the company delivered 19 F-35 aircraft. This compares to 50 F-35 deliveries in Q2 2025. Total F-35 deliveries for the first half of 2026 reached 51 aircraft [1][2].
The company revised its full-year 2026 financial outlook upwards. This followed the Q2 2026 earnings release on July 23, 2026 [5]. Lockheed Martin cited strong demand and a record $230 billion backlog as reasons for the improved outlook [5]. Prediction markets are currently tracking whether Q3 2026 F-35 deliveries will surpass 40 aircraft [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial...barchart.com
  3. 3Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3kalshi.com
  4. 4Lockheed Martin (LMT) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reportstipranks.com
  5. 5Lockheed Martin (LMT) Earnings Date & Reportstickeron.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if Lockheed Martin Corporation reports more than 40 F-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026, and "No" if they report 40 or fewer deliveries, with the outcome verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opened on July 27, 2026, and will close early if the event occurs, or by February 16, 2027, at 11:00 PM EST otherwise, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for employees of source agencies or individuals possessing material, non-public information.

Market Discussion

In Q2 2026, Lockheed Martin delivered 19 F-35 aircraft, contributing to 51 total deliveries for the first half of the year, and subsequently raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance [1][2]. Prediction markets are currently tracking whether Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in the calendar year 2026 [3]. However, no specific information regarding Lockheed Martin F-35 delivery schedules or associated financial key performance indicators for Q3 2026 was retrieved from the provided sources [4]-[5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results - Jul 23, 2026news.lockheedmartin.com
  2. 2Lockheed Martin Raises 2026 Sales Guidance to $81.75 Billionsekbernews.id
  3. 3Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  4. 4New sponsor for Armed Forces Bowl - ESPNespn.com
  5. 5Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl - Revive los mejores momentos de los tazones colegiales - ESPNespndeportes.espn.com

4. What specific supply chain or production issues reported in H1 2026 pose the greatest risk to Lockheed Martin meeting its F-35 delivery targets for Q3 2026?

F-35 Deliveries Q2 202619 jets (compared to 50 in Q2 prior year) [1]
Key Production RiskPersistent supply chain bottlenecks and production challenges [2][3][4]
Modernization Program IssuesTechnical Refresh 3 (TR-3) and Block 4 software maturity, incomplete airframes [5][6]
Persistent supply chain and production issues significantly hinder F-35 deliveries. The greatest risks to Lockheed Martin meeting its F-35 delivery targets for Q3 2026 are largely due to persistent supply chain bottlenecks and production challenges. In the first half of 2026, key issues included ongoing bottlenecks in castings and forgings, widespread labor shortages, and industrial base capacity constraints for critical electronics and spare parts [2][3][4]. Furthermore, the propulsion system supply chain, particularly for F135 engines, has experienced chronic delivery delays [2].
Modernization efforts introduce significant software and hardware integration challenges. The F-35 program is also heavily impacted by ongoing Technical Refresh 3 (TR-3) and Block 4 modernization initiatives. These efforts have encountered difficulties related to software maturity and the delivery of incomplete airframes, specifically those missing radar sensors [5][6]. Such issues necessitate a complex and ongoing retrofit strategy to bring the aircraft to full operational capability [5][6].
These issues have substantially impacted F-35 delivery numbers. The combined effect of these production and delivery challenges is reflected in Lockheed Martin's reported delivery figures for Q2 2026, with only 19 F-35 jets delivered [1]. This represents a sharp decline when compared to the 50 jets delivered in the same quarter of the prior year, indicating significant hurdles to meeting future delivery targets [1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 profit jumps as prior losses ease - AeroTimeaerotime.aero
  2. 2F-35 Engine Production Contract Slips to Spring 2026airandspaceforces.com
  3. 3F-35 sustainment reset faces industrial capacity risk - IN Defenceindefencemag.com
  4. 4Lockheed Martin’s Manufacturing Machine: Still Firing on All Cylinders? – USA Business Timesusabusinesstimes.com
  5. 5Why The US Air Force Just Cut Its 2026 F-35A Order Nearly In Halfsimpleflying.com
  6. 6F-35 program chief warns fleet has outgrown its support system amid record-low readinessairforcetimes.com

5. What do Lockheed Martin's own financial guidance and executive commentary from the Q2 2026 earnings call imply for Q3 F-35 delivery expectations?

Q2 2026 F-35 Deliveries19 aircraft [1][2][3]
Q2 2025 F-35 Deliveries50 aircraft [1][2][3]
Q3 2026 F-35 Delivery TargetsNot explicitly provided [4][5]
Lockheed Martin provided no specific F-35 delivery targets for Q3 2026. The company's Q2 2026 earnings call and financial guidance did not explicitly state numerical F-35 delivery expectations for the upcoming quarter [4][5]. However, Lockheed Martin's updated full-year 2026 guidance indicates an expected stronger growth rate for its Aeronautics segment in the latter half of the year. This anticipated growth is contingent upon the timely award of contracts for the next production lot of F-35 aircraft [4][5].
Full-year guidance for sales and profit increased despite Q2 F-35 decrease. Lockheed Martin raised its full-year 2026 sales and segment operating profit guidance [4][5]. This upward revision was attributed to robust demand and strong production volumes within the Aeronautics segment, particularly impacting the F-35 program [4][5]. This updated guidance follows the delivery of 19 F-35 aircraft in Q2 2026, which represents a notable decrease compared to the 50 aircraft delivered in Q2 2025 [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial...investors.lockheedmartin.com
  2. 2Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results - Jul 23, 2026news.lockheedmartin.com
  3. 3Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 profit jumps as prior losses ease - AeroTimeaerotime.aero
  4. 4Lockheed Martin Reports Q2 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript - Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  5. 5Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - July 23, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai

6. How did the F-35's 50% year-over-year delivery decline in Q2 2026 compare to the performance of other major US defense aviation programs, such as Boeing's F-15EX or KC-46?

Lockheed Martin F-35 Deliveries (Q2 2026)19 aircraft [1][2][3]
Lockheed Martin F-35 Year-over-Year Decline62.00% [4][5][6][7][8][9]
Boeing Defense Division Deliveries (Q2 2026)35 units [10][11][12]
Lockheed Martin's F-35 deliveries significantly decreased in Q2 2026. The company delivered 19 F-35 aircraft during this quarter [1][2][3]. This figure represents a 62.00% year-over-year decline, a substantial decrease when compared to the 50 F-35s delivered in the second quarter of 2025 [4][5][6][7][8][9].
Boeing's defense division saw an increase in total deliveries. In contrast to the F-35's performance, Boeing's defense sector reported 35 units delivered in Q2 2026, marking an increase from 29 units in Q1 2026 [10][11][12]. Specific deliveries within this total included 3 F-15 models and 4 KC-46 tankers [10][11][12].
Direct comparison of specific program deliveries remains unfeasible. A comprehensive program-by-program comparison between Lockheed Martin's F-35 and Boeing's F-15EX or KC-46 programs cannot be fully completed using the available sources. This limitation arises from a lack of verified Q2 2026 delivery figures for specific Boeing programs [4][5][6][7][8][9]. The Boeing-related outputs consulted primarily provided financial ratios, indicating that operational metrics like specific program deliveries were not covered by the financial reporting endpoints [4][5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1LMT 8K Q2 2026filecache.mediaroom.com
  2. 2Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 profit jumps as prior losses ease - AeroTimeaerotime.aero
  4. 4LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (10-Q) - 2025-Q2, Page: 43Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (10-Q) - 2025-Q2, Page: 15Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (10-Q) - 2025-Q2, Page: 38Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7LMT_Q22025, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (10-Q) - 2025-Q2, Page: 43Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (10-Q) - 2025-Q2, Page: 38Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  10. 10Boeing Announces Second Quarter Deliveries - Jul 14, 2026boeing.mediaroom.com
  11. 11Boeing defence delivery rise to 35 units in second quarter 2026airforce-technology.com
  12. 12Boeing delivers 35 military aircraft in second quarter of 2026 as Apache, Chinook and fighter shipments improvedefence-industry.eu

7. What data from the Department of Defense and key F-35 suppliers, like BAE Systems and Pratt & Whitney, can serve as a leading indicator for Q3 2026 deliveries?

Engine Delivery DelaysUp to 238 days (2024) [1][2][3]
DoD Production EvaluationJune 2026 [3]
Q2 2026 F-35 Deliveries19 aircraft [4][5]
Engine delivery delays and upcoming evaluations pose significant risks to F-35 schedules. Pratt & Whitney's F-35 engine delivery performance has consistently served as a bottleneck, with historical data from 2024 indicating average delays of up to 238 days. This ongoing issue is a critical leading indicator for potential impacts on Q3 2026 delivery schedules [1][2][3]. Further clarity regarding Lockheed Martin's capacity to meet delivery targets for the remainder of 2026 will stem from a Department of Defense evaluation of its F-35 production capabilities, which is set for June 2026 [3].
Recent F-35 delivery shortfalls and new contracts highlight production challenges. Lockheed Martin delivered only 19 F-35 aircraft in Q2 2026, representing a sharp year-over-year decline. This performance signals persistent production or acceptance testing challenges heading into Q3 2026 [4][5]. To bolster delivery schedules, the Department of Defense awarded Lockheed Martin an $879 million contract in May 2026. The execution and funding status of this specific contract will be a key factor to monitor for Q3 2026 throughput [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1GAO-25-107632, F-35 JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER: Actions Needed to Address Late Deliveries and Improve Future Developmentgao.gov
  2. 2F-35 Engine Production Contract Slips to Spring 2026airandspaceforces.com
  3. 3F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Actions Needed to Address Late Deliveries and Improve Future Development | U.S. GAOgao.gov
  4. 4Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 profit jumps as prior losses ease - AeroTimeaerotime.aero
  5. 5Lockheed Martin sales increased by $2 billion, up to $20.1...finance.yahoo.com

8. How have historical Q3 F-35 delivery numbers for Lockheed Martin typically compared to Q2 numbers in previous fiscal years (2023-2025)?

Q3 2024 F-35 deliveries48 units [1][2]
Q3 2025 F-35 deliveries46 units [1]
Annual 2023 F-35 deliveries98 units [3]
F-35 delivery numbers show significant variability, especially in 2024. Lockheed Martin's F-35 delivery numbers demonstrate considerable variability, significantly influenced by external factors like government-imposed halts. In 2024, Q3 deliveries totaled 48 units [1]. This marked the first F-35 deliveries of the year, as a prior halt prevented any deliveries during Q1 or Q2 [1][2]. A significant factor impacting deliveries was a halt specifically for TR-3 configured aircraft, which extended from July 2023 through July 2024, directly influencing delivery numbers for both 2023 and 2024 [3][4][5].
Q3 F-35 deliveries in 2025 were 46 units. For 2025, Lockheed Martin delivered 46 F-35 aircraft in Q3 [1]. While specific Q2 figures for 2025 were not provided, Q1 saw 47 units delivered, contributing to a total of 143 by the end of Q3 [1]. In 2023, annual F-35 deliveries reached 98 units; however, precise Q2 or Q3 figures for that year were not detailed in the available information [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Lockheed Martin Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial...news.lockheedmartin.com
  2. 2Lockheed feels financial pinch from F-35 upgrade, contract delaysdefensenews.com
  3. 3Lockheed delivered record 191 F-35s as it cleared out TR-3 backlogdefensenews.com
  4. 4Lockheed Martin Delivered Record 191 F-35 Fighters in 2025airandspaceforces.com
  5. 5How Many F-35s Does The United States Produce Annually?simpleflying.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Lockheed Martin delivered 19 F-35 aircraft in Q2 2026, bringing the total for the first half of 2026 to 51 units [1][2]. Prediction markets are tracking Q3 2026 F-35 deliveries, with a threshold set at 40 aircraft [3]. Following Q2 results, Lockheed Martin raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance, projecting approximately 8% sales growth and over $7B in free cash flow [4].
Bullish catalysts include a record $230 billion backlog and strong international demand [5][6][7].
Bearish catalysts include chronic software maturity issues (TR-3), mission-capable rate declines, and reduced procurement orders for fiscal 2026 [5][6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: February 17, 2027
  • Closes: February 17, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results - Jul 23, 2026news.lockheedmartin.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3kalshi.com
  4. 4Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 profit jumps as prior losses ease - AeroTimeaerotime.aero
  5. 5The F-35 in Crisis: Chronic Availability Issues and Out-of-Control Costswarwingsdaily.com
  6. 6Lockheed Martin's $230 Billion Backlog Signals Years of Defense Spending Surgewebpronews.com
  7. 7Lockheed Martin Corp Stock (LMT) Moved Down by 4.05%...tradingkey.com