Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Remitly active customers in Q3 2026 above 10.2 million, assigning a 20.0% probability versus the market's 0.0%. This divergence is driven by management guidance anticipating continued active customer growth, with revenue growth expected to modestly exceed customer growth, supported by resilient remittance volumes.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market, which resolves based on Remitly's Q3 2026 active customers exceeding 10.2 million, shows a single, sharp repricing event. The contract opened with a 1.0% probability on August 12 before jumping to its current level of 93.0% on August 13. The chart shows no other significant price action or established support and resistance levels.
The price surge is a direct reflection of Remitly's Q2 2026 financial report, released on August 5. In that report, the company announced it had already achieved 10.2 million quarterly active customers. The market is pricing in a very high likelihood that Remitly will at least maintain, if not grow, this customer base in the subsequent quarter. The current 93.0% price indicates strong market sentiment that the Q3 target will be met.
Total traded volume is zero. This suggests the price movement was not driven by active, two-sided trading but rather by an initial pricing adjustment or a single order. The lack of volume means the current price reflects the view of a very limited number of participants and has not been tested by significant market activity. While the price aligns with public fundamentals, its predictive value is tempered by the absence of liquidity.
  • Active customers above 10.2 million are likely, reflecting expected continued growth from Q2.
  • Remitly management anticipates continued customer growth, supported by resilient remittance volumes.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 10.4 million 98.0% 20.0% Market higher by 78.0pp
Above 10.5 million 99.0% 20.0% Market higher by 79.0pp
Above 10.6 million 28.0% 15.0% Market higher by 13.0pp
Above 10.7 million 19.0% 5.0% Market higher by 14.0pp
Above 10.3 million 96.0% 20.0% Market higher by 76.0pp

Current Context

Remitly has not yet reported Q3 2026 results. As of August 13, 2026, the company's Q3 financial results are pending; Remitly most recently reported its Q2 2026 financial performance on August 5, 2026 [1][2][3]. In Q2 2026, Remitly achieved 10.2 million quarterly active customers, which marked the first time the company surpassed the 10 million customer milestone [1][2][4].
Q3 2026 guidance provided revenue and EBITDA expectations. For Q3 2026, Remitly projects revenue between $505 million and $507 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $92 million and $94 million [4][5][6]. The company did not provide specific guidance for quarterly active customers for Q3. Key developments in mid-2026 include the launch of the Remitly Global Card and the introduction of Bulk Payments and Send by Link features [7][4][6]. Remitly also reported reaching over 25,000 active business receivers during this period [4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Remitly Q2 2026 slides: record profitability, 10M active usersinvesting.com
  4. 4Remitly: Business Receivers Top 25,000 As First $1 Million Volume Customer Joins Platformpulse2.com
  5. 5Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookbusiness.times-online.com
  6. 6Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  7. 7Remitly launches the Global Card, built for people whose lives extend across borders - Remitly Newsroomnews.remitly.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 12, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 86.0%

Outcome: Above 10.3 million

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was Remitly's official announcement of its strong Q2 2026 results, which occurred on August 5, 2026, with the earnings call transcript available on August 12, 2026 [1][2]. The company reported reaching 10.2 million quarterly active customers in Q2 2026, surpassing the 10 million milestone for the first time [1][3]. This strong performance, coupled with a raised full-year 2026 outlook and strategic initiatives like the 'Remitly Global Card' launch, likely led market participants to confidently predict continued customer growth into Q3, exceeding 10.3 million [1][4]. No relevant social media activity was identified as a driver; therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  2. 2Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3Remitly Surpasses 10 Million Active Customers as Q2 Revenue Jumps 20% — Remitly Global, Inc. | BriefGlancebriefglance.com
  4. 4Remitly (RELY) Is Up 7.2% After Strong Q2 Beat And Launch Of Global Multi-Currency Cardca.finance.yahoo.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on Remitly's active customers in Q3. For a "YES" contract to resolve, the number of active customers must be above the specified threshold (e.g., above 10.5 million); otherwise, a "NO" contract resolves. Trading for this market ends on November 6th at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 6, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 10.5 million $0.99 $0.18 99%
Above 10.4 million $0.98 $0.14 98%
Above 10.3 million $0.95 $0.15 96%
Above 10.6 million $0.38 $0.72 28%
Above 10.7 million $0.19 $0.91 19%
Above 10.2 million $0.99 $0.09 0%
Above 10.8 million $0.10 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

Remitly announced 10.2 million quarterly active customers for Q2 2026, marking a 20% year-over-year increase and the first time the company surpassed 10 million active users [1][2][3]. While Q3 2026 financial results are not yet reported as the quarter concludes on September 30, 2026, Remitly anticipated in its August 2026 earnings call that Q3 2026 revenue growth would modestly exceed quarterly active customer growth [1].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  2. 2Remitly is proud to share our excellent second quarter 2026 financial results and our raised outlook for the year. We delivered record revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and net income. This quarter, 10 million … | Remitlylinkedin.com
  3. 3Remitly Crosses 10 Million Quarterly Customers for First Timestocktitan.net

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 62 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score62Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXRELY-26NOVACTIVECUST-10,400,000 carried 38% of its $1,284 tape (print is 44d old)

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 10.6 million” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
39Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

4 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 10.6 million39
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 10.5 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 10.4 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 10.7 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

4 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 10.5 million—
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Above 10.4 million—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Above 10.6 million—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Above 10.7 million—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 10.5 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10.4 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10.6 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10.7 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 39 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 6.0c slippage (~7% of a 92c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 10.5 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10.4 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10.6 million39Market scoreLiquidity39Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 39
Liquidity
39 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 10.7 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

6. Based on the Q2 2026 earnings call, what specific commentary from Remitly's management provides guidance on the outlook for active customer growth in Q3?

Q3 2026 Revenue vs. Active Customer GrowthRevenue growth expected to modestly exceed quarterly active customer growth (Q3 2026) [1][2]
Send Volume per Active Customer GrowthExpected to grow in the mid- to high-single-digit range [3][4][5]
Q3 2026 Marketing Spend for QAUProjected to be slightly higher year over year [3][4][5]
Remitly expects active customer growth to continue in Q3 2026. For the third quarter of 2026, Remitly management anticipates that revenue growth will modestly exceed quarterly active customer growth [1][2]. This indicates that while active customers are expected to continue expanding, their rate of growth will likely be slightly slower than revenue [3][4][5]. Management further projects that send volume per active customer will increase in the mid- to high-single-digit range. This projected growth is driven by a continued shift towards high-value senders and businesses, which is expected to enhance the quality of overall growth [3][4][5].
Marketing efforts will maintain customer acquisition momentum in Q3. Remitly expects marketing efficiencies to persist throughout the second half of 2026 [3][4][5]. In Q3, marketing spend per quarterly active user (QAU) is projected to be slightly higher year over year, as the company expands its "Skip the Line" campaign and boosts brand marketing initiatives in the UAE [3][4][5]. This strategic investment aims to sustain customer acquisition. Management notes that Q4 is expected to present a more challenging comparison due to a focused holiday spending strategy in the prior year, suggesting Q3's performance in customer acquisition could be relatively stronger [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  2. 2Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3RELY_Q22026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4RELY_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5RELY_Q22026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co

7. How does Remitly's projected user growth for Q3 2026 compare with the recent performance and forward guidance of competitors like Wise and Western Union?

Remitly Active Customers (Q2 2026)10.2 million (20% YoY) [1]
Wise Active Customers (FY 2026)19 million (21% YoY) [2][3]
Western Union FY26 Adj. Revenue Growth4% to 6% [4][5][6]
Remitly forecasts strong Q3 2026 revenue and customer growth. The company reported 10.2 million active customers in Q2 2026, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [1]. For Q3 2026, Remitly anticipates revenue growth between 20% and 21%, projecting revenues of $505 million to $507 million [1][7]. This indicates that Remitly's projected active customer growth for Q3 2026 is expected to be modestly below its revenue growth forecast [1][7].
Wise shows strong customer growth, with moderate revenue guidance. In comparison, Wise reported 19 million active customers for its fiscal year 2026, which concluded in June 2026, reflecting a 21% year-over-year growth [2][3]. Wise has guided for its fiscal year 2027 net revenue growth to be in the middle of its 15% to 20% medium-term range [2][3].
Western Union faces challenges, projecting modest revenue growth. Western Union, on the other hand, reported flat Q2 2026 revenue of $1 billion and missed profit estimates [4]. The company projects a 4% to 6% full-year 2026 adjusted revenue growth, intending to leverage its 'Beyond Efficiency' restructuring and new digital initiatives, such as the Stablecard, to drive improvements in the second half of the year [4][5][6]. The available research did not provide specific active customer growth projections for Western Union for Q3 2026 or full-year 2026.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  2. 2Wise Group plc reports Full Year 2026 Financial Resultsowners.wise.com
  3. 3Rapid FY2026 growth at Wise Group (Nasdaq: WSE, LSEstocktitan.net
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: Western Union Q2 2026 misses...investing.com
  5. 5Western Union (NYSE:WU) Misses Q2 CY2026 Revenue...finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Western Union Stablecard: can legacy finance win crypto?crypto.news
  7. 7https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/remitly-global-earnings-call-highlights-growth-and-riskstipranks.com

8. What historical seasonal trends has Remitly exhibited in Q3 customer growth, and how might the 2023-2025 data inform expectations for Q3 2026?

Q3 2025 Active Customers8.9 million [1][2][3]
Q3 2025 YoY Active Customer Growth21% [1][2][3]
Most Significant Seasonal PeriodFourth quarter [4][5]
Remitly typically sees stronger customer acquisition in the fourth quarter. Historically, the fourth quarter represents Remitly's most significant seasonal period for customer acquisition, leading to increased marketing investment and higher active customer growth compared to the third quarter [4][5]. Q3 active customer growth is influenced by various factors, including underlying retention rates, the efficiency of new customer acquisition strategies, and macroeconomic conditions such as FX volatility, which can either accelerate or delay customer demand [4][5].
Q3 2025 showed substantial customer growth for Remitly. During the third quarter of 2025, Remitly reported a total of 8.9 million quarterly active customers. This specific figure indicates a 21% increase year-over-year for that period [1][2][3].
Q3 2026 expectations lack sufficient data in the current research. Although historical seasonal trends and specific Q3 2025 data are available, the provided research does not offer enough information to establish specific expectations for Q3 2026.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results Above Outlook and Raises Full Year 2025 Outlook | Remitly Global, Incir.remitly.com
  2. 2Q3 2025 Remitly Global Inc Earnings Call on November 05...ir.remitly.com
  3. 3Remitly (RELY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4https://ir.remitly.com/static-files/9e9eb8d6-2f39-4ded-9b9f-87c997078bc2ir.remitly.com
  5. 5Remitly Global, Inc. Earnings Call Transcript Q3 2024 | Roic AIroic.ai

9. What do leading indicators from central banks, like Banxico, suggest about remittance volume trends in Remitly's key corridors during Q3 2026?

Mexico Remittance Income (April 2026)$4.978 billion (annual increase of 3.7%) [1][2]
Remitly Q2 2026 Active Customers10.2 million (20% year-over-year increase) [3][4]
Remitly Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance$505 million to $507 million [3][5]
Leading indicators suggest resilient remittance volumes for Q3 2026. Data from central banks, particularly Banxico, indicates that remittance income reached $4.978 billion in April 2026, marking a 3.7% annual increase [1][2]. This suggests continued resilience in the US-Mexico corridor's remittance volume, even amidst broader economic uncertainties and modest Mexican economic growth projections of approximately 1.1% for 2026 [6]. The digital remittance market, however, continues to demonstrate robust structural growth [7].
Remitly projects continued growth in customers and revenue. This structural expansion within the digital remittance market supports ongoing active customer acquisition for providers. Remitly reported 10.2 million quarterly active customers for Q2 2026, representing a significant 20% year-over-year increase [3][4]. For Q3 2026, the company has provided revenue guidance of $505 million to $507 million, anticipating that its revenue growth will modestly surpass active customer growth [3][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Mexico Central Bank Remittance Income and Expenses April 2026linkedin.com
  2. 2Latin America, region overviewremitscope.org
  3. 3Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  4. 4Remitly Stock Surges Following Massive Q2 Earnings Beat and Record User Growth | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/remitly-global-earnings-call-highlights-growth-and-riskstipranks.com
  6. 6Banxico Lowers 2025 GDP Forecast to 0.3% Amid 3Q25...mexicobusiness.news
  7. 7Digital Remittance Market Size, Share & Forecast 2026-2032fact.mr

10. What impact are Remitly's new initiatives, such as the Global Card and expanded business services, expected to have on customer acquisition and retention in Q3 2026?

Initiatives focusLong-term growth accelerators (customer engagement, revenue diversification) [1][2][3]
Q3 2026 active customer guidanceNot publicly provided [4][5][6][7][8][9]
Q3 2026 total revenue forecast$505 million - $507 million [3]
Remitly's new initiatives prioritize long-term customer engagement over short-term acquisition. The Global Card and expanded business services are classified as long-term "growth accelerators," designed to deepen customer engagement and diversify revenue streams [1][2][3]. These efforts are strategically focused on enhancing lifetime value (LTV) and long-term customer retention rather than generating immediate, massive spikes in active customer acquisition for Q3 2026 [10][1][3].
Direct quantitative data linking initiatives to Q3 2026 outcomes is unavailable. Remitly has not publicly provided explicit active customer guidance or targets specifically for Q3 2026 [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Consequently, there is insufficient specific quantitative data to directly connect the Global Card and expanded business services to particular expected customer acquisition and retention outcomes for that quarter [4][5][6][7][8][9]. While Remitly expects Q3 2026 total revenue to fall between $505 million and $507 million, modestly exceeding its quarterly active customer growth, this forecast does not specify the direct impact of these new initiatives on active customer metrics for Q3 2026 [3]. Customer acquisition throughout 2026 has primarily been driven by the "Skip the Line" campaign [10][1][3].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Remitly: Business Receivers Top 25,000 As First $1 Million Volume Customer Joins Platformpulse2.com
  2. 2Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  3. 3Earnings call transcript: Remitly tops Q2 2026 estimates...investing.com
  4. 4www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  5. 5www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  6. 6www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  7. 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  9. 9seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  10. 10Q1 2026 Remitly Global Inc Earnings Call on May 06,...ir.remitly.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Remitly reported 10.2 million quarterly active customers as of Q2 2026 [1][2][3]. For Q3 2026, the company provided financial guidance of $505 million–$507 million in revenue and $92 million–$94 million in Adjusted EBITDA [4][3]. Bullish catalysts for Remitly include strong underlying momentum in user growth, volume expansion, and new product initiatives such as the Remitly Global Card [5].
Conversely, bearish considerations involve FX corridor volatility, planned reinvestment lowering short-term EBITDA margins, and transaction loss normalization [5]. Remitly reported Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, and third-quarter earnings are expected in early November 2026 [1][2][4]. Q3 2026 active customer figures are not available in the provided evidence and are not yet disclosed [6][7][8][9][10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 06, 2027
  • Closes: March 06, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Investor Relations | Remitly Global, Incir.remitly.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  3. 3Remitly releases transcript of Q2 2026 earnings call - RELY News | Ralliesrallies.ai
  4. 4Remitly Global | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 495.16 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  5. 5https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/remitly-global-earnings-call-highlights-growth-and-riskstipranks.com
  6. 6www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  7. 7www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  8. 8www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  9. 9seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  10. 10www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  11. 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent