Futu total funded accounts in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Futu's strong Q1 account additions and Moomoo engagement support accounts above 3.95 million. Regulatory restrictions and full-year guidance likely cap total accounts below 4.15 million.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.15 million | 11.0% | 7.5% | Market higher by 3.5pp |
| Above 3.95 million | 92.0% | 68.6% | Market higher by 23.4pp |
| Above 4.05 million | 45.0% | 23.2% | Market higher by 21.8pp |
| Above 4.1 million | 25.0% | 15.7% | Market higher by 9.3pp |
| Above 4 million | 76.0% | 60.8% | Market higher by 15.2pp |
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
- 2Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Results: Revenues up 25% YoY to US$746.9 millionprnewswire.com
- 4News Releases | Futu Holdings Ltd - Investor Relationsir.futuholdings.com
- 5Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 6100 John Does | Money Stuff: The Podcastyoutube.com
- 7Oil Falls; Tech Stocks Slump; Big Jobs Report on Tap | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 8Futu Launches Korean Stock Trading, One App Empowering Investors to Access Global Assetsfutuhk.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.1 million
📉 July 30, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 30.0%
Outcome: Above 4 million
📈 July 29, 2026: 79.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 80.0%
Sources (6)
- 1Futu Holdings Profit Plunges 61% After Beijing’s Cross-Border Trading Crackdown - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
- 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
- 3Futu Holdings stock business: Mainland account share drops to 13%, Q1 net profit declines 61% | Gate Newsgate.com
- 4Futu expects mainland brokerage business to shrink but vows to keep Hong Kong outlets - Newsar Intelnewsar.codejungle.org
- 5FUTU Stock Volatility History & Chart Since 2019wallstreetnumbers.com
- 6FUTU Stock Impact Report for 07/22/2026 | News Quantifiednewsquantified.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns Futu's total funded accounts in Q3. A YES resolution occurs if Futu's total funded accounts in Q3 are above 4.05 million, while a NO resolution occurs if the total is 4.05 million or less. The market ends on November 17 at 3:00 AM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 19, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.95 million | $0.93 | $0.15 | 92% |
| Above 4 million | $0.77 | $0.30 | 76% |
| Above 4.05 million | $0.55 | $0.54 | 45% |
| Above 4.1 million | $0.33 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Above 4.15 million | $0.20 | $0.88 | 11% |
| Above 4.2 million | $0.10 | $0.98 | 9% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, Futu reported 3.59 million total funded accounts [1][2][3]. While the June 2026 launch of Moomoo's licensed prediction markets saw 10 million contracts traded in the first week [4], an order freezing accounts at the platform [5] and highly polarized social media sentiment—ranging from bullish (~94/100) to bearish "sell" signals—create mixed prospects for Q3 account growth [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
- 2Futu Announces Q1 2026 Results: Robust Global Growth...futuhk.com
- 3Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
- 41 million contracts in just 24 hours, and 10 million in week one! 🚀 Moomoo US has officially launched licensed Prediction Markets, delivering a breakout debut under CFTC guidance and licensed FCM … | Futu Holdings Limitedlinkedin.com
- 5Oil Falls; Tech Stocks Slump; Big Jobs Report on Tap | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 6Futu Holdings (FUTU) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.org
- 7Futu Holdings (FUTU) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 94/100 | AltIndexaltindex.com
- 8Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU) Sentiment | GoodMoatgoodmoat.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How might developments in the China Securities Regulatory Commission's investigation impact Futu's account growth through Q3 2026?
| Proposed CSRC Fine | $271 million (RMB 1.85 billion) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Mainland Accounts Share | Approximately 13% of total funded accounts (as of Q1 2026) [3][4] |
| Total Funded Accounts | 3.59 million (as of March 31, 2026) [5][6] |
Sources (8)
- 1Futu Receives Investigation Notice and Administrative Penalty Pre-Notification Letter from the China Securities Regulatory Commission | Futu Holdings Ltdir.futuholdings.com
- 2Futu Gets Investigation Notice From China Regulatormorningstar.com
- 3$331 Million in Penalties and a Two-Year Deadline: China… | FMIntelligencedatalab.financemagnates.com
- 4Futu Holdings stock business: Mainland account share drops to 13%, Q1 net profit declines 61% | Gate Newsgate.com
- 5Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsfinviz.com
- 6Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
- 7China Just Gave Offshore Brokers Two Years to Exit the Mainlandfinancemagnates.com
- 8Futu Is Chasing 800000 New Clients in 2026 After a...financemagnates.com
7. How did Futu's net additions of funded accounts in the first half of 2026 compare to those of its key rival, UP Fintech Holding (Tiger Brokers)?
| Futu Q1 2026 Net Funded Accounts | 225,000 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| UP Fintech Q1 2026 Net Funded Accounts | 28,900 [1][2][3][4] |
| Futu Full-Year 2026 Guidance | 800,000 net new funded accounts [1][3][5] |
Sources (5)
- 1Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2Futu Holdings (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited First Quarter 2026 Financial Results - Tiger Brokersitiger.com
- 4UP Fintech: Q1 Revenue and Client Assets Grow Steadily,...finance.yahoo.com
- 5UP Fintech Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (TIGR) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - June 2, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
8. What do alternative data trends from sources like Sensor Tower suggest about user engagement for Futu's Moomoo app during Q3 2026?
| 2026 Net New Funded Accounts Target | 800,000 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Total Funded Accounts Q1 2026 | 3.59 million [1][2][3] |
| Net New Funded Accounts Q1 2026 | 225,000 [1][2][3] |
Sources (9)
- 1Futu Is Chasing 800000 New Clients in 2026 After a...financemagnates.com
- 2Futu Holdings 4Q25 Earnings Beat: Strong Growth, Client Acquisition & Higher Target Price for 2026 – Minichartminichart.com.sg
- 3Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsfinviz.com
- 4Moomoo Named Best Global Investment Platform by...prnewswire.com
- 5Sensor Tower Names Moomoo Best Global Investment Platformfintecbuzz.com
- 6Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Results: Revenues up 25% YoY to US$746.9 millionprnewswire.com
- 7Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Achieves Consecutive...prnewswire.com
- 8Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q3 2025 Results: Net Income Up 137% YoY to US$425.7 Millionnewswire.ca
- 9Futu Holdings Future Growthsimplywall.st
9. Based on its Q1 2026 starting point, what quarterly growth rate does Futu need in Q2 and Q3 to stay on track for its full-year 2026 guidance?
| Full-Year 2026 Guidance | 800,000 net new funded accounts [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net New Accounts | 225,000 net new funded accounts [1][4][2] |
| Avg. Q2-Q4 Net New Accounts Needed | 191,667 net new funded accounts per quarter [1][2][3] |
Sources (4)
- 1https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
- 2Futu Holdings (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3Futu (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultssg.finance.yahoo.com
10. What is the projected Q3 2026 impact of Futu's new South Korean stock trading service, launched in July 2026, on net new funded accounts?
| South Korean Stock Service Launch Date | July 27, 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total Funded Accounts (as of Mar 31, 2026) | 3.59 million [4][5][6] |
| Full-Year 2026 Net New Funded Accounts Guidance | 800,000 [4][5][6] |
Sources (8)
- 1Futu Launches Korean Stock Trading, One App Empowering Investors to Access Global Assetsfutuhk.com
- 2Futu Securities Launches Korean Stock Trading Service Covering 2,700+ Listings | Gate Newsgate.com
- 3Futu launches direct trading for South Korean equities in Hong Kongthestandard.com.hk
- 4Futu Holdings (FUTU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 5Futu Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Resultsfinviz.com
- 6Futu targets 800,000 net new funding accounts in 2026 while expecting Malaysia to reach breakeven in 6 to 12 months (NASDAQ:FUTU) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 7Hana Securities opens Korean stock trading to Futu clientskoreaherald.com
- 8Hana Securities, Futu open Korean stock market access to foreign investors - The Korea Timeskoreatimes.co.kr
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 19, 2027
- Closes: March 19, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1Futu Holdings: ECM And Enterprise Services Primed To Defy Regulatory Drag (NASDAQ:FUTU) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 2How Regulatory Sanctions And Fraud Lawsuits At Futu Holdings (FUTU) Have Changed Its Investment Story - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 3Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Stock Research Report | Flashflash.stocksentinel.ai
- 4Oil Falls; Tech Stocks Slump; Big Jobs Report on Tap | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 5FUTU Stock: Buy or Avoid in 2026? | CirclFicirclfi.com
- 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754581/000110465926067159/tm2615605d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
- 7Moomoo's Parent Company Futu Releases Q1 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
- 8Futu to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 18, 2025 | Futu Holdings Ltdfutuholdings.gcs-web.com
- 9Futu (FUTU) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-3625000: NO (May 28, 2026)
- KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3750000: NO (May 28, 2026)
- KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3700000: NO (May 28, 2026)
- KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3650000: NO (May 28, 2026)
- KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3600000: NO (May 28, 2026)