Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2 2026 to be Above 2% (model 20.0% vs market 0.0%). This view stems from 6.0% comparable sales growth in Q1 2026 and analyst Q2 2026 consensus estimates of 2.9-3.1%, aligning with full-year guidance.
1. Executive Verdict
- Comparable sales likely positive, driven by Q1 2026's 6.0% growth.
- Q2 sales expected near 2.9%-3.1% analyst consensus, aligning guidance.
- Highest thresholds face less upward pressure than Q1 2026's 6.0%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Q2 2026 analyst consensus (2.9%-3.1%) and full-year guidance (2.5%-4.0%) expect sales above 2%. |
| Above 3% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Q2 2026 analyst consensus (2.9%-3.1%) and full-year guidance (2.5%-4.0%) support sales above 3%. |
| Above 4% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Q2 2026 analyst consensus is below 4.0%, while full-year guidance reaches 4.0%. |
| Above 5% | 0.0% | 10.0% | Q2 2026 analyst consensus and full-year guidance are below 5.0%, despite Q1's 6.0% growth. |
| Above 6% | 0.0% | 5.0% | Analyst consensus and full-year guidance for Q2 2026 are below Q1's 6.0% growth. |
Current Context
Dick's Sporting Goods will report Q2 results and host a call on August 25, 2026. The company is set to release its fiscal 2026 second quarter financial results before market open on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [^][^]. A conference call to discuss these Q2 2026 results will follow at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day [^][^]. For the full fiscal year 2026, Dick's Sporting Goods has guided for comparable sales growth of 2.5% to 4.0% for the DICK'S business and 1.5% to 3.0% for the Foot Locker business [^][^][^]. As of August 9, 2026, Q2 results have not been reported [^][^]. The first quarter (Q1) 2026 ended on May 2, 2026, with results released May 27, 2026 [^][^].
Foot Locker comparable sales will not factor into Q2 reporting. The Foot Locker business, acquired by Dick's Sporting Goods, will not be included in quarterly comparable store sales calculations until the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 [^][^]. This inclusion begins once these stores have completed their 14th full month of operations following the acquisition [^][^]. Dick's Sporting Goods is also actively pursuing an asset optimization program, which involves closing underperforming stores and right-sizing assets within the Foot Locker business [^]. This program projects pre-tax charges of $500–750 million [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action shows a near-instantaneous repricing from an initial 1.0% probability on August 7 to 93.0% the following day, before settling at its current level of 94.0%. The trend is sharply positive, but the price movement is not substantiated by any news flow within the provided context, which only contains the scheduled date for the Q2 2026 earnings release on August 25. The rapid jump reflects a change in the market's baseline expectation, not a reaction to a specific fundamental catalyst.
The most critical feature of this chart is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movements are not the result of participant activity. This indicates there is no capital committed to either side of the market, and therefore, no conviction behind the current 94.0% probability. The price reflects a notional quote rather than a consensus formed through active trading.
Given the lack of trading data, it is not possible to identify meaningful support or resistance levels. The chart indicates an extremely high expectation for the comparable sales outcome, but this sentiment is entirely untested. Without volume, the price level is illiquid and does not provide a reliable signal of market consensus.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 86.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%
Outcome: Above 3%
What happened: The primary driver of the 86.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market was likely the announcement of Dick's Sporting Goods' expanded partnership with Perfect Game USA on August 7, 2026 [^][^]. This traditional news event coincided with a 5.15% rise in DKS stock, which likely led to a dramatic upward revision of market expectations for Q2 comparable sales being "Above 3%" [^][^][^]. Q2 earnings were not released on this date, and no social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified as influencing the move [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in driving this price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales growth in Q2, with contracts based on specific thresholds (e.g., "Above 5%"). A YES resolution for an "Above X%" contract triggers if the comparable sales growth exceeds X%, while a NO resolution occurs if it is X% or less. Trading for this market ends on August 25 at 4:00 PM EDT, with payouts finalized by December 22, 2026, at the latest; no special settlement conditions are detailed.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2% | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| Above 3% | $0.95 | $0.12 | 0% |
| Above 4% | $0.76 | $0.31 | 0% |
| Above 5% | $0.48 | $0.59 | 0% |
| Above 6% | $0.24 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Above 7% | $0.11 | $0.96 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Dick's Sporting Goods is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings on August 25, 2026, although Q2 financial results have not yet been released as of August 9, 2026 [^][^]. In Q1 2026, the company reported a proforma comparable sales increase of 6.0% for the DICK'S Sporting Goods business and 4.1% for the consolidated business [^][^]. Despite generally bullish social media sentiment [^][^][^], market analysts maintain a cautious outlook, citing cyclical retail headwinds and potential earnings dilution risks from the Foot Locker acquisition, with the full-year comparable sales growth guidance for the DICK'S Business set at 2.5% to 4.0% [^][^][^][^][^].
5. How do Wall Street analyst consensus estimates for Dick's Sporting Goods' Q2 2026 comparable sales growth align with the company's full-year guidance?
| Q2 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth Consensus | 2.9% to 3.1% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-Year 2026 Comparable Sales Growth Guidance | 2.5% to 4.0% [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2026 Earnings Report Date | Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [^][^] |
Wall Street analysts project Q2 comparable sales growth aligns with guidance. Analysts forecast Dick's Sporting Goods' Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth to be in the range of 2.9% to 3.1%, with some individual estimates reaching as high as 4% [^][^]. This analyst consensus generally aligns with the company's full-year 2026 guidance for comparable sales growth in its core DICK'S business, which is set between 2.5% and 4.0% [^][^][^]. The company last updated this full-year guidance in May 2026 [^][^][^], and analysts' Q2 2026 estimates are positioned within or at the top end of this wider annual guidance range [^][^].
6. What do recent consumer spending reports from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate about retail health for the May-July 2026 period?
| June 2026 Retail/Food Sales MoM | 0.2% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| June 2026 Retail/Food Sales YoY | 6.7% [^][^][^] |
| June 2026 PCE Increase | 0.3% [^] |
U.S. retail sales demonstrated consistent growth during May and June 2026. Retail and food services sales in June 2026 saw a 0.2% month-over-month increase, building on a revised 1.0% increase reported for May 2026 by the U.S. Census Bureau [^][^][^]. Year-over-year, these sales experienced a substantial 6.7% growth in June [^][^][^].
Consumer spending metrics broadly supported a robust mid-2026 retail environment. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.3% in June 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [^]. Complementing this, internal card data from Bank of America indicated a 6.3% year-over-year spending growth for June, partly driven by major events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup [^]. These collective figures suggest strong consumer activity through the middle of the year.
This analysis primarily focuses on consumer spending data from May and June 2026. Information detailing U.S. Census Bureau or Bureau of Economic Analysis consumer spending or retail sales for July 2026 was not available in this research.
7. How did the most recent quarterly comparable sales growth of Academy Sports + Outdoors and Hibbett Sports compare to Dick's Sporting Goods' Q1 2026 results?
| Dick's Sporting Goods Core Comparable Sales | 6.0% growth (Q1 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Academy Sports + Outdoors Comparable Sales | 2.9% growth (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
| JD Sports Like-for-Like Sales | 2.0% decrease (Q1 2026) [^] |
Dick's Sporting Goods reported strong comparable sales growth in Q1 2026. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Dick's core business achieved a 6.0% comparable sales increase [^][^][^]. Furthermore, the Foot Locker Business, recently acquired by Dick's, also showed positive momentum by reporting a 0.6% increase in comparable sales during the same quarter [^].
Other sporting goods retailers showed varied comparable sales performance. Academy Sports + Outdoors reported a 2.9% comparable sales growth for its first quarter of fiscal 2026 [^][^]. In contrast, JD Sports, the parent company of Hibbett Sports, experienced a 2.0% decrease in like-for-like sales in Q1 2026 [^]. Despite this overall decrease, JD Sports did see organic sales growth of 1.4% within North America during this period [^].
8. What do Q2 2026 foot traffic data from providers like Placer.ai suggest about in-store visits to Dick's Sporting Goods versus the same period in 2025?
| Foot Traffic Q2 2026 | Near-flat levels in April [^] |
|---|---|
| Overall Traffic Early 2026 | Stable [^] |
| Q2 2025 Overall Visits | -5.3% year-over-year decline [^] |
Q2 2026 foot traffic shows a rebound and stability. Foot traffic data for Q2 2026 indicates a recovery to near-flat levels in April, following a softening observed in March [^]. Providers generally noted that Dick's Sporting Goods maintained stable traffic in early 2026. This stability is attributed to the company's ongoing integration of Foot Locker and the expansion of its experiential store formats [^].
Q2 2025 traffic declined despite strong sales growth. This recent stability in foot traffic for Q2 2026 contrasts with Q2 2025, when overall visits to Dick's Sporting Goods' flagship chain decreased by -5.3% year-over-year, and same-store visits declined by -4.5% [^]. Despite these challenges in attracting in-store visitors, the company reported a 5.0% comparable sales increase in Q2 2025. This sales growth was driven by a 4.1% increase in average ticket size and a 0.9% uptick in transactions, with e-commerce performance surpassing the overall company growth [^][^].
9. What has been Dick's Sporting Goods' historical comparable sales performance in Q2 over the past three fiscal years (2023-2025)?
| Comparable store sales Q2 2023 | 1.8% increase [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Comparable store sales Q2 2025 | 5.3% increase [^] |
| Q2 2024 Performance Impact | Contributed to raising full-year 2024 guidance [^][^][^][^][^] |
Comparable sales significantly increased in Q2 2025 for Dick's Sporting Goods. The company experienced a 5.3% increase in comparable store sales for Q2 2025. This significant growth was driven by both higher average ticket values per transaction and an overall increase in the number of customer transactions [^][^][^][^][^].
Q2 2024 performance boosted full-year guidance, though specific data is missing. Dick's Sporting Goods' performance in Q2 2024 was strong enough to prompt the company to raise its full-year 2024 guidance for comparable sales growth. However, specific comparable sales performance percentages for Q2 2024 were not provided in the research [^][^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
DICK’S Sporting Goods is scheduled to announce Q2 2026 results on August 25, 2026, before market open, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. For the DICK’S Business segment, Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth was reported at 6.00% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This figure suggests healthy underlying demand at the DICK’S banner [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, consolidated or pro forma Q2 2026 comparable sales for the entire company are not available in the current evidence, making a full company-wide assessment incomplete ahead of the formal earnings release [^][^][^][^][^][^].
The near-term narrative for Q2 includes whether Foot Locker comparable trends and profitability improve against expectations [^] [^] [^] [^] . | TIKR.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^]. It also considers if margin headwinds, such as marketing and World Cup spend, along with integration costs, will outweigh sales momentum [^][^][^][^]. Full-year 2026 guidance for DICK’S Business comparable sales stands at positive 2.5% to positive 4.0% [^][^]. For the Foot Locker Business, full-year 2026 comparable sales guidance (pro forma) is positive 1.5% to positive 3.0% [^][^]. Foot Locker's performance will not be included in quarterly comparable sales until Q4 fiscal 2026 [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 23, 2026
- Closes: December 23, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: DICK’S Sporting Goods is scheduled to announce Q2 2026 results on August 25, 2026, before market open, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m.
- Trigger: ET [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For the DICK’S Business segment, Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth was reported at 6.00% [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This figure suggests healthy underlying demand at the DICK’S banner [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
