Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2 2026 to be Above 2% (model 20.0% vs market 0.0%). This view stems from 6.0% comparable sales growth in Q1 2026 and analyst Q2 2026 consensus estimates of 2.9-3.1%, aligning with full-year guidance.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action shows a near-instantaneous repricing from an initial 1.0% probability on August 7 to 93.0% the following day, before settling at its current level of 94.0%. The trend is sharply positive, but the price movement is not substantiated by any news flow within the provided context, which only contains the scheduled date for the Q2 2026 earnings release on August 25. The rapid jump reflects a change in the market's baseline expectation, not a reaction to a specific fundamental catalyst.
The most critical feature of this chart is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movements are not the result of participant activity. This indicates there is no capital committed to either side of the market, and therefore, no conviction behind the current 94.0% probability. The price reflects a notional quote rather than a consensus formed through active trading.
Given the lack of trading data, it is not possible to identify meaningful support or resistance levels. The chart indicates an extremely high expectation for the comparable sales outcome, but this sentiment is entirely untested. Without volume, the price level is illiquid and does not provide a reliable signal of market consensus.
  • Comparable sales likely positive, driven by Q1 2026's 6.0% growth.
  • Q2 sales expected near 2.9%-3.1% analyst consensus, aligning guidance.
  • Highest thresholds face less upward pressure than Q1 2026's 6.0%.

Current Context

Dick's Sporting Goods will report Q2 results and host a call on August 25, 2026. The company is set to release its fiscal 2026 second quarter financial results before market open on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [1][2]. A conference call to discuss these Q2 2026 results will follow at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day [1][2]. For the full fiscal year 2026, Dick's Sporting Goods has guided for comparable sales growth of 2.5% to 4.0% for the DICK'S business and 1.5% to 3.0% for the Foot Locker business [3][4][5]. As of August 9, 2026, Q2 results have not been reported [6][7]. The first quarter (Q1) 2026 ended on May 2, 2026, with results released May 27, 2026 [6][7].
Foot Locker comparable sales will not factor into Q2 reporting. The Foot Locker business, acquired by Dick's Sporting Goods, will not be included in quarterly comparable store sales calculations until the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 [7][8]. This inclusion begins once these stores have completed their 14th full month of operations following the acquisition [6][9]. Dick's Sporting Goods is also actively pursuing an asset optimization program, which involves closing underperforming stores and right-sizing assets within the Foot Locker business [10]. This program projects pre-tax charges of $500–750 million [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods Q2 Results Call Set Aug. 25 | DKS Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  2. 2DICK'S Sporting Goods Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Call for August 25th — DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | BriefGlancebriefglance.com
  3. 3Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) earnings Q1 2026 - CNBCcnbc.com
  4. 4Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  5. 5DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089063/000108906326000021/0001089063-26-000021.txtsec.gov
  8. 8Documentsec.gov
  9. 9DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  10. 10DICK'S Sporting Goods posts Q1 2026 results | DKS 8-K Filingstocktitan.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 07, 2026: 86.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%

Outcome: Above 3%

What happened: The primary driver of the 86.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market was likely the announcement of Dick's Sporting Goods' expanded partnership with Perfect Game USA on August 7, 2026 [1][2]. This traditional news event coincided with a 5.15% rise in DKS stock, which likely led to a dramatic upward revision of market expectations for Q2 comparable sales being "Above 3%" [1][3][2]. Q2 earnings were not released on this date, and no social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified as influencing the move [1]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in driving this price movement.
Sources (3)
  1. 1DKS Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Slightly Misses but Stock Jumps 5.15% - Estimate Revision Countmarking.cxc.org
  2. 2Is DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Cheap On Its Expanded Perfect Game Partnership? - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  3. 3DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market concerns Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales growth in Q2, with contracts based on specific thresholds (e.g., "Above 5%"). A YES resolution for an "Above X%" contract triggers if the comparable sales growth exceeds X%, while a NO resolution occurs if it is X% or less. Trading for this market ends on August 25 at 4:00 PM EDT, with payouts finalized by December 22, 2026, at the latest; no special settlement conditions are detailed.

Market Discussion

Dick's Sporting Goods is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings on August 25, 2026, although Q2 financial results have not yet been released as of August 9, 2026 [1][2]. In Q1 2026, the company reported a proforma comparable sales increase of 6.0% for the DICK'S Sporting Goods business and 4.1% for the consolidated business [3][4]. Despite generally bullish social media sentiment [5][6][7], market analysts maintain a cautious outlook, citing cyclical retail headwinds and potential earnings dilution risks from the Foot Locker acquisition, with the full-year comparable sales growth guidance for the DICK'S Business set at 2.5% to 4.0% [3][8][9][10][11].

Sources (11)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Call for August 25th — DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | BriefGlancebriefglance.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089063/000108906326000021/0001089063-26-000021.txtsec.gov
  5. 5Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 94/100 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  6. 6Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) Sentiment | GoodMoatgoodmoat.com
  7. 7Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
  8. 8DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  9. 9DICK'S Sporting Goods: Strong Execution, But Cyclical Headwinds Persist (NYSE:DKS) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  10. 10Dick's Q1 Cleared the Bar, but the Foot Locker Bill Came Due — and the Stock Read the Guide, Not the Comp — Endcap Briefendcap.news
  11. 11Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) Stock Price Prediction & Forecast 2026, 2027-2030 | AltIndexaltindex.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 9, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 9, 2026

6. How do Wall Street analyst consensus estimates for Dick's Sporting Goods' Q2 2026 comparable sales growth align with the company's full-year guidance?

Q2 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth Consensus2.9% to 3.1% [1][2]
Full-Year 2026 Comparable Sales Growth Guidance2.5% to 4.0% [3][4][5]
Q2 2026 Earnings Report DateTuesday, August 25, 2026 [6][7]
Wall Street analysts project Q2 comparable sales growth aligns with guidance. Analysts forecast Dick's Sporting Goods' Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth to be in the range of 2.9% to 3.1%, with some individual estimates reaching as high as 4% [1][2]. This analyst consensus generally aligns with the company's full-year 2026 guidance for comparable sales growth in its core DICK'S business, which is set between 2.5% and 4.0% [3][4][5]. The company last updated this full-year guidance in May 2026 [3][4][5], and analysts' Q2 2026 estimates are positioned within or at the top end of this wider annual guidance range [1][2].
Dick's Sporting Goods will report Q2 2026 results in August. The company is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 financial results on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Dick's (DKS) Q2 Earnings on the Horizon: Analysts' Insights on Key Performance Measures | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  2. 2EXEC: Analysts Provide Look Ahead for Dick’s Sporting Goods Q2 Report | SGB Media Onlinesgbonline.com
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets.ft.markitdigital.com
  5. 5DICK'S Sporting Goods posts Q1 2026 results | DKS 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  6. 6DICK'S Sporting Goods Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Call for August 25th — DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | BriefGlancebriefglance.com
  7. 7DICK'S Sporting Goods Q2 Results Call Set Aug. 25 | DKS Stock Newsstocktitan.net

7. What do recent consumer spending reports from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate about retail health for the May-July 2026 period?

June 2026 Retail/Food Sales MoM0.2% [1][2][3]
June 2026 Retail/Food Sales YoY6.7% [1][2][3]
June 2026 PCE Increase0.3% [4]
U.S. retail sales demonstrated consistent growth during May and June 2026. Retail and food services sales in June 2026 saw a 0.2% month-over-month increase, building on a revised 1.0% increase reported for May 2026 by the U.S. Census Bureau [1][2][3]. Year-over-year, these sales experienced a substantial 6.7% growth in June [1][2][3].
Consumer spending metrics broadly supported a robust mid-2026 retail environment. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.3% in June 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [4]. Complementing this, internal card data from Bank of America indicated a 6.3% year-over-year spending growth for June, partly driven by major events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup [5]. These collective figures suggest strong consumer activity through the middle of the year.
This analysis primarily focuses on consumer spending data from May and June 2026. Information detailing U.S. Census Bureau or Bureau of Economic Analysis consumer spending or retail sales for July 2026 was not available in this research.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Report - Census Bureaucensus.gov
  2. 2ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, JUNE 2026census.gov
  3. 3Shoppers pull back in June as retail sales growth cools to 0.2% | AP Newsapnews.com
  4. 4Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  5. 5Consumer Checkpoint: Consumers hit the back of the netinstitute.bankofamerica.com

8. How did the most recent quarterly comparable sales growth of Academy Sports + Outdoors and Hibbett Sports compare to Dick's Sporting Goods' Q1 2026 results?

Dick's Sporting Goods Core Comparable Sales6.0% growth (Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Academy Sports + Outdoors Comparable Sales2.9% growth (Q1 2026) [4][5]
JD Sports Like-for-Like Sales2.0% decrease (Q1 2026) [4]
Dick's Sporting Goods reported strong comparable sales growth in Q1 2026. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Dick's core business achieved a 6.0% comparable sales increase [1][2][3]. Furthermore, the Foot Locker Business, recently acquired by Dick's, also showed positive momentum by reporting a 0.6% increase in comparable sales during the same quarter [1].
Other sporting goods retailers showed varied comparable sales performance. Academy Sports + Outdoors reported a 2.9% comparable sales growth for its first quarter of fiscal 2026 [4][5]. In contrast, JD Sports, the parent company of Hibbett Sports, experienced a 2.0% decrease in like-for-like sales in Q1 2026 [4]. Despite this overall decrease, JD Sports did see organic sales growth of 1.4% within North America during this period [4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1businesswire.com
  2. 2companiesmarketcap.com
  3. 3sgbonline.com
  4. 4sec.gov
  5. 5fox13news.com

9. What do Q2 2026 foot traffic data from providers like Placer.ai suggest about in-store visits to Dick's Sporting Goods versus the same period in 2025?

Foot Traffic Q2 2026Near-flat levels in April [1]
Overall Traffic Early 2026Stable [2]
Q2 2025 Overall Visits-5.3% year-over-year decline [3]
Q2 2026 foot traffic shows a rebound and stability. Foot traffic data for Q2 2026 indicates a recovery to near-flat levels in April, following a softening observed in March [1]. Providers generally noted that Dick's Sporting Goods maintained stable traffic in early 2026. This stability is attributed to the company's ongoing integration of Foot Locker and the expansion of its experiential store formats [2].
Q2 2025 traffic declined despite strong sales growth. This recent stability in foot traffic for Q2 2026 contrasts with Q2 2025, when overall visits to Dick's Sporting Goods' flagship chain decreased by -5.3% year-over-year, and same-store visits declined by -4.5% [3]. Despite these challenges in attracting in-store visitors, the company reported a 5.0% comparable sales increase in Q2 2025. This sales growth was driven by a 4.1% increase in average ticket size and a 0.9% uptick in transactions, with e-commerce performance surpassing the overall company growth [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1placer.ai
  2. 2placer.ai
  3. 3placer.ai
  4. 4placer.ai

10. What has been Dick's Sporting Goods' historical comparable sales performance in Q2 over the past three fiscal years (2023-2025)?

Comparable store sales Q2 20231.8% increase [1][2][3][4]
Comparable store sales Q2 20255.3% increase [5]
Q2 2024 Performance ImpactContributed to raising full-year 2024 guidance [6][7][8][9][10]
Dick's Sporting Goods saw modest comparable sales growth in Q2 2023. The company reported a 1.8% increase in comparable store sales for that quarter. This growth was primarily attributed to a rise in customer transactions and continued gains in market share [1][2][3][4].
Comparable sales significantly increased in Q2 2025 for Dick's Sporting Goods. The company experienced a 5.3% increase in comparable store sales for Q2 2025. This significant growth was driven by both higher average ticket values per transaction and an overall increase in the number of customer transactions [5][11][12][13][14].
Q2 2024 performance boosted full-year guidance, though specific data is missing. Dick's Sporting Goods' performance in Q2 2024 was strong enough to prompt the company to raise its full-year 2024 guidance for comparable sales growth. However, specific comparable sales performance percentages for Q2 2024 were not provided in the research [6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (14)
  1. 1insideretail.us
  2. 2dicks.cominvestors.dicks.com
  3. 3prnewswire.com
  4. 4seekingalpha.com
  5. 5fibre2fashion.com
  6. 6pymnts.com
  7. 7dicks.cominvestors.dicks.com
  8. 8q4cdn.coms27.q4cdn.com
  9. 9prnewswire.com
  10. 10alphastreet.comnews.alphastreet.com
  11. 11investing.com
  12. 12youthsportsbusinessreport.com
  13. 13alphastreet.comnews.alphastreet.com
  14. 14fool.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

DICK’S Sporting Goods is scheduled to announce Q2 2026 results on August 25, 2026, before market open, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. For the DICK’S Business segment, Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth was reported at 6.00% [3][4][5][6][7][8]. This figure suggests healthy underlying demand at the DICK’S banner [3][4][5][6][7][8]. However, consolidated or pro forma Q2 2026 comparable sales for the entire company are not available in the current evidence, making a full company-wide assessment incomplete ahead of the formal earnings release [3][4][5][6][7][8].
The near-term narrative for Q2 includes whether Foot Locker comparable trends and profitability improve against expectations [9][10][11][12]. It also considers if margin headwinds, such as marketing and World Cup spend, along with integration costs, will outweigh sales momentum [9][10][11][12]. Full-year 2026 guidance for DICK’S Business comparable sales stands at positive 2.5% to positive 4.0% [13][14]. For the Foot Locker Business, full-year 2026 comparable sales guidance (pro forma) is positive 1.5% to positive 3.0% [13][15]. Foot Locker's performance will not be included in quarterly comparable sales until Q4 fiscal 2026 [13][15][16].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 23, 2026
  • Closes: December 23, 2026
Sources (16)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Call for August 25th — DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | BriefGlancebriefglance.com
  2. 2DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  3. 3www.benzinga.comOctagon Agentbenzinga.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  6. 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  7. 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  8. 8www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  9. 9DICK’S Sporting Goods Stock Falls After Q1 2026 Earnings: Was the Selloff Justified? | TIKR.comtikr.com
  10. 10DICK'S Sporting Goods: Strong Execution, But Cyclical Headwinds Persist (NYSE:DKS) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  11. 11DKS: Future Returns Will Reflect Core Engine And Foot Locker Execution Riskssimplywall.st
  12. 12EXEC: Analysts Provide Look Ahead for Dick’s Sporting Goods Q2 Report | SGB Media Onlinesgbonline.com
  13. 13Documentsec.gov
  14. 14DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  15. 15Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  16. 16https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089063/000108906326000021/0001089063-26-000021.txtsec.gov