Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Toast's total locations in Q3 2026, assigning 20.0% probability to exceeding 184 thousand compared to the market's 0.0%, driven by record Q2 2026 location additions and Q3 guidance implying continued expansion.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has been completely static since its inception. The price has held at a 1.0% YES probability across all recorded data points, resulting in a flat, sideways trend with no significant movements to analyze. The recent news of Toast's record location growth in the second quarter of 2026 has had no discernible impact on pricing.
The lack of price movement is explained by zero trading volume. With no contracts traded, the market is completely illiquid, and the current 1.0% price does not reflect any aggregated market sentiment or conviction. It is likely an initial seeding price rather than a consensus forecast. As there has been no trading activity, no support or resistance levels have been established. The chart data currently offers no insight into market expectations for Toast's final Q3 2026 location count.
  • Locations above 188 thousand are likely, following 9,500 net new additions in Q2.
  • Q3 2026 financial guidance implies continued steady expansion of the location base.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 192 thousand 11.0% 15.0% Model higher by 4.0pp
Above 184 thousand 98.0% 20.0% Market higher by 78.0pp
Above 194 thousand 1.0% 5.0% Model higher by 4.0pp
Above 186 thousand 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 188 thousand 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

Toast has not yet reported Q3 2026 results; Q2 saw record location growth. As of August 6, 2026, Toast had not released its financial results for the third quarter of 2026, which concludes on September 30, 2026 [1][2]. During the second quarter of 2026, the company added approximately 9,500 net new locations, marking a record for Toast [1].
Q3 2026 financial guidance projects specific profit and EBITDA ranges. For the third quarter of 2026, Toast provided financial guidance expecting non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit between $615 million and $625 million [1][3]. Adjusted EBITDA for the same period is projected to be between $210 million and $220 million [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Toast - Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestors.toasttab.com
  2. 2Toast outlines 23%-25% recurring gross profit growth outlook for 2026 as AI and new TAMs scale (NYSE:TOST) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  3. 3Toast (NYSE: TOST) lifts 2026 guidance after $154M Q2...stocktitan.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Toast total locations in Q3" market, specifically the "Above 184 thousand" contract:

1. YES resolution: The "Yes" outcome resolves if Toast's total reported locations in Q3 are greater than 184,000. 2. NO resolution: The "No" outcome resolves if Toast's total reported locations in Q3 are 184,000 or less. 3. Key dates: Trading for this market concludes on November 3, 4:00 PM EST. A maximum payout date of March 6, 2027, is also noted. 4. Special conditions: The provided content does not specify the official source for Toast's Q3 location data or an explicit resolution date beyond the maximum payout date.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 184 thousand $0.98 $0.08 98%
Above 192 thousand $0.15 $0.89 11%
Above 194 thousand $0.07 $0.98 1%
Above 186 thousand $0.97 $0.12 0%
Above 188 thousand $0.70 $0.39 0%
Above 190 thousand $0.32 $0.77 0%

Market Discussion

Toast announced approximately 180,000 total locations as of the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, after adding 9,500 net new locations in Q2 2026 and 7,000 in Q1 2026 [1]. This consistent growth, including record location additions, contributes to a generally positive market sentiment with bullish outlooks, partly due to AI-driven initiatives [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Toast added approximately 9,500 net locations in the second quarterstocktitan.net
  2. 2Toast Inc (TOST) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Location Adds and AI Momentum Drive...sg.finance.yahoo.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 57 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score66Caution
Trade quality20% of score23Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score57Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXTOST 26NOVLOC” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXTOST-26NOVLOC-192,000 carried 40% of its $46 tape (print is 14d old)

Screened clean
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
29Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 192 thousand29
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
27Unconfirmed

Price moves lack volume behind them

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 192 thousand27
Unconfirmed · medium confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 192 thousand100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
23Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 29 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 22.5c slippage (~173% of a 13c contract)

$1,000 order: 65.0c slippage (~500% of a 13c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 192 thousand29Market scoreLiquidity29Move quality27Rule clarity100
Why 29
Liquidity
29 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
27 · Unconfirmed · medium confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 19, 2026

5. What strategic initiatives or macroeconomic shifts during Q3 2026 could significantly alter Toast's location growth trajectory from its Q2 record?

Net new locations Q2 20269,500 [1][2][3][4]
Total locations (as of June 30, 2026)180,000 [1][2][3][4]
Hardware tariffs impactFull-year impact in 2026 [5][4]
Toast drives growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion. Key efforts include the continued integration of artificial intelligence, such as Toast IQ, to enhance its platform offerings [6][5]. The company is also actively expanding its reach into enterprise, international, and retail sectors, with specific international targets including the UK, Canada, Australia, Ireland, and potential further expansion into Western Europe [6][5]. Concurrently, Toast is addressing cost pressures, particularly hardware tariffs, by optimizing supplier relationships and diversifying its sourcing, while also reinvesting funds into platform development [6][5][7][4].
Macroeconomic shifts and strong Q2 growth shape future trajectory. Management observed an unusual slowdown in demand during Q2 2026 but anticipates a return to normal demand patterns as Q3 2026 progresses [5][4][1][3]. While hardware tariffs are expected to have a full-year impact in 2026, the overall economic landscape is considered manageable [5][4][2]. Despite the Q2 slowdown, Toast achieved a record of 9,500 net new location additions in Q2 2026, bringing its total location count to approximately 180,000 as of June 30, 2026 [5][4][1][2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmorningstar.com
  2. 2Toast (NYSE: TOST) lifts 2026 guidance after $154M Q2...stocktitan.net
  3. 3Toast Inc (TOST) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultslasvegassun.com
  5. 5Toast at Goldman Sachs Communicopia: Strategic Growth and Innovation By Investing.cominvesting.com
  6. 6Toast at Morgan Stanley Conference: Strategic Growth and AI Focus By Investing.comin.investing.com
  7. 7Toast outlines 23%-25% recurring gross profit growth...seekingalpha.com

6. How does Toast's projected Q3 2026 location growth rate compare to the merchant acquisition trends of key competitors like Block's Square and Fiserv's Clover?

Toast Locations (June 2026)180,000 locations [1]
Toast Net New Locations (Q2 2026)9,500 locations [1]
Square Q2 2026 Gross Profit Growth13% [2]
Toast is demonstrating a strategy of sustained location expansion, reaching approximately 180,000 locations as of June 30, 2026. The company added 9,500 net new locations in Q2 2026, indicating a continued focus on expanding its presence [1]. Toast's Q3 2026 outlook further supports this growth trajectory, projecting a 22–24% year-over-year increase in subscription and fintech gross profit [1].
Block's Square emphasizes profitability and efficiency over aggressive growth. Unlike Toast's expansion-centric approach, Block's Square segment is prioritizing efficiency and margin expansion over aggressive top-line merchant acquisition [1][2][3][4][5]. Square reported a 13% gross profit growth in Q2 2026, and its strategic aim for a 27-28% margin signifies a clear focus on profitability rather than rapid location growth at any cost [2][3][4][5].
Fiserv's Clover shows strong volume growth, but comparable data is limited. Fiserv's Clover platform demonstrated strong performance with a 12% volume growth in Q1 2026 [6][7]. However, specific merchant acquisition trends or location growth rates for Clover that are directly comparable to Toast's expansion or Square's strategic focus are not available in the provided data [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Toast (NYSE: TOST) lifts 2026 guidance after $154M Q2...stocktitan.net
  2. 2Block, Inc. (NYSE: XYZ) posts strong Q2 2026 results and...stocktitan.net
  3. 3Block Inc (XYZ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptnews.alphastreet.com
  4. 4Block Q2 2026 slides: record 27% margins, stock falls 5%investing.com
  5. 5Block signals 2026 gross profit of $12.51B with 28%...seekingalpha.com
  6. 6Payments and FinTech Earnings Recap: Q1 2026bobhammel.substack.com
  7. 7Fiserv Statistics 2026: Uncover Trends, Shares & Value • CoinLawcoinlaw.io

7. Based on Toast's historical financials, what does its official Q3 2026 guidance for gross profit and EBITDA imply for its total location count?

Q3 2026 Gross Profit Guidance$615 million to $625 million (22-24% growth) [1][2][3]
Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance$210 million to $220 million [1][2][3]
Total Locations (Q2 2026)180,000 [3][4]
Toast did not provide specific numerical guidance for its total location count for Q3 2026. While the company withheld a precise projection for its total location count for the quarter, it did issue official financial guidance. For Q3 2026, Non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit is projected to be between $615 million and $625 million [1][2][3]. This range represents a growth of 22–24% compared to Q3 2025 [1][2][3]. Additionally, Toast anticipates an Adjusted EBITDA ranging from $210 million to $220 million for the same period [1][2][3].
Financial guidance implies continued steady expansion in locations. The projected 22-24% growth in gross profit suggests a sustained expansion of Toast's location base [1][2][3]. This outlook aligns with the company's historical growth patterns and its recent achievement of reaching 180,000 total locations [1][2][3]. As of the close of Q2 2026, Toast reported approximately 180,000 total locations, a milestone driven by a record addition of 9,500 net locations during that quarter [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Toast (NYSE: TOST) lifts 2026 guidance after $154M Q2...stocktitan.net
  2. 2Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultslasvegassun.com
  3. 3Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4TOST Q2 FY2026 earnings call - BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com

8. What alternative datasets, such as credit card transaction data or business opening filings for Q3 2026, can provide leading indicators for Toast's location count?

Toast Location DefinitionA unique restaurant site using Toast Point of Sale, recording transaction volumes above a minimum threshold, and not churned [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Potential External Leading IndicatorThird-party web scraping of support communities or new account registration patterns [7][8][9]
Toast Installation ProcessSpecific hardware setup and a 1:1 configuration call with an Onboarding Consultant [7][8][9]
Toast defines active locations based on POS system usage and transaction volume. A "Location" for Toast signifies a unique restaurant site that has actively utilized its Point of Sale system to record transaction volumes above a minimum threshold and has not been marked as churned [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This "live" status is the primary metric used for the company's quarterly location count. Internally, Toast tracks several leading indicators for net location additions, including daily new location go-lives, sales pipeline segmented by activity, payments penetration among recent cohorts, and the attach rate of newer modules for locations within their initial 0-90 days [10].
External alternative datasets primarily involve web scraping or account monitoring. Third-party web scraping of support communities or monitoring new account registration patterns are primary alternative datasets identified as potentially offering leading indicators for Toast's location count [7][8][9]. This approach is relevant because Toast's installation process requires a specific hardware setup and a direct, one-on-one configuration call with an Onboarding Consultant [7][8][9].
Credit card transaction data and business filings are not cited. While there are general mentions of exploring various alternative data points [11][12][13][14], the provided information does not specify credit card transaction data or business opening filings as alternative datasets for tracking Toast's location growth.
Sources (14)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Toast (TOST) Earnings Report Q1 2026 | Miss, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  3. 3Toast Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results | FinancialContentfinancialcontent.com
  4. 4Toast (TOST) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5Toast Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7New Restaurant Opening POS Systempos.toasttab.com
  8. 8Self-Service Onboarding Guide - Toast Supportsupport.toasttab.com
  9. 9Restaurant POS Systempos.toasttab.com
  10. 10What are the key sales KPIs for the Restaurant Point-of-Sale · 2027 Benchmarks + Real Targets — Pulse Industry KPIspulserevops.com
  11. 11Ford Shares Climb as Profit-Rich SUVs Drive Outlook Higher | Bloomberg Intelligenceyoutube.com
  12. 12He Modeled Every Regime Since 1965 | Aahan Menon on What Wins from Hereyoutube.com
  13. 13Pinduoduo (PDD): Is PDD the Best Buy in China?youtube.com
  14. 14Record ETF Inflows, New Nasdaq-100 Competition, and SoFi's ETF Strategyyoutube.com

9. What do recent restaurant industry health metrics, such as opening and closure rates for Q3 2026, suggest about potential churn for Toast's customer base?

Toast churn rateslightly above 10% on an annualized basis [1][2]
Total Toast locations (June 30, 2026)approximately 180,000 [2][3]
Net new Toast locations (Q2 2026)record 9,500 [2][3]
Restaurant industry challenges contribute to a stable but elevated churn for Toast. The restaurant industry in 2026 continues to experience difficulties, including elevated closure rates projected for secondary brands and ongoing margin compression [4]. Although the overall closure rate environment has stabilized compared to 2025, Toast's annualized churn rate has remained slightly above 10%, consistent with recent quarters and representing a marginal year-over-year increase. Most of this churn is attributed to restaurant closures, which Toast reports have a low impact on its Annualized Recurring Run-Rate (ARR) [4][1][2].
Toast significantly grew its location count despite persistent industry churn. As of June 30, 2026, Toast expanded its reach to approximately 180,000 total locations, marking a 22% year-over-year increase [4][2][3]. The company also achieved a record addition of 9,500 net new locations during Q2 2026. Despite Toast's continued success in adding locations, the broader industry forecast for 2026 indicates that churn resulting from restaurant closures is expected to persist [4][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Earnings call: Toast Inc. highlights robust growth and raises full-year outlook By Investing.cominvesting.com
  2. 2Toast (NYSE: TOST) lifts 2026 guidance after $154M Q2...stocktitan.net
  3. 3Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Restaurant Outlook for 2026: Leaders Take Share, and...qsrmagazine.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of June 30, 2026, Toast served approximately 180,000 total locations, representing 22% year-over-year growth [1][2][3]. In the second quarter of 2026, Toast added a record 9,500 net new locations [2][3]. For Q3 2026, Toast provided outlooks for non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit of $615M–$625M and Adjusted EBITDA of $210M–$220M, but did not provide a specific numerical forecast for total location counts [4].
Bullish catalysts for Toast include strong recurring gross profit growth, the successful adoption of new offerings such as Toast IQ Grow, and expansion into enterprise hospitality partnerships [3][4]. Bearish risks typically revolve around economic sensitivity and sustained competitive pressures in the restaurant technology market [3][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 06, 2027
  • Closes: March 06, 2027
Sources (4)
  1. 1Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Toast (NYSE: TOST) lifts 2026 guidance after $154M Q2...stocktitan.net
  3. 3Toast - Toast Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestors.toasttab.com
  4. 4https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/aug/04/toast-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-resu/lasvegassun.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTOST-26AUGLOC-P186000: NO (Aug 04, 2026)
  • KXTOST-26AUGLOC-P184000: NO (Aug 04, 2026)
  • KXTOST-26AUGLOC-P182000: NO (Aug 04, 2026)
  • KXTOST-26AUGLOC-P180000: NO (Aug 04, 2026)
  • KXTOST-26AUGLOC-P178000: YES (Aug 04, 2026)